Article: How Trevor Plouffe Became A Run Producer

[Parker Hageman]

Before the 2015 season began, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor discussed his options for cleanup hitter. His first choice he said would be Torii Hunter. Based on Hunter’s experience, approach and ability to put the ball in play, Molitor felt like the veteran would be a sound run producer. Behind Hunter, Molitor listed Trevor Plouffe as another candidate for the meat-of-the-order role.

 

Players like Kennys Vargas or Oswaldo Arcia, with their game-changing swings and imposing presence in the batter's box, have the appearance of an archetype cleanup hitter yet Molitor felt their approach did not match that of what should be a run producer's approach. Someday, sure, but their all-or-nothing swings would leave them tied in knots in valuable RBI opportunities.Yes, Mr. RBIs-Are-Overrated-Guy, RBIs are overrated and explain little toward a hitter's true abilities, plus require the players in the lineup ahead of him to get on base. Still, there are guys that fail to drive in runs for various reasons when faced with RBI opportunities. In 2014, the Twins lineup had several talented power-hitters that they viewed as trying to do too much -- swinging for the fences when a well-placed grounder would have done the trick. Instead, the at-bat would conclude in a strikeout.

 

Once upon a time, Trevor Plouffe was that type of hitter. He would swing from his heels trying to drive himself and the run in on one pitch. Seemingly overnight, Plouffe improved his production and in 2014 he led the team in RBIs with 80. Now he is the guy you want at the plate with a runner in scoring position.

 

Quick history lesson: early in his career right-handed pitchers had Plouffe's number like Tommy Tutone had Jenny's. From 2011 through 2013, he struck out in 22% of his plate appearances while chasing balls out of the zone at a near 30% clip against righties. His .673 OPS was well below the. 727 OPS that other right-handed hitters averaged when facing righties. Despite the disappointing performance against righties, his success against left-handed pitching helped buoy his overall numbers and kept him in the lineup continuously in that time.

 

The young version of Trevor Plouffe figured that if you turned on an inside pitch, you could send the ball on a direct flight to the outfield bleachers the quickest. That philosophy helped him hammer out 46 home runs in his mid-twenties. Of course, pitchers and scouts recognized this trait and peppered him with a steady diet of offspeed offerings away which sent him into chase mode as he still tried to pull everything. His power binges were filled with spats of strikeouts.

 

Last year, however, Plouffe began to understand what was happening and how pitchers were setting him up. He knew couldn’t survive taking the giant swing at every pitch.

 

“I know for me they like to show me [fastball] in and then go soft away,” Plouffe said. He would have to look at the outer-half as his zone as well and he could no longer continue to turn that ball over. As a middle-of-the-order bat rife with RBI opportunities, he accepted that his approach had to be focused on putting the ball in play and get that runner to cross the plate -- even if it meant slapping a grounder to second or sending a can-o-corn to right field.

 

“In those big situations where there are runners on base last year Bruno and I talked about using that whole field, just take what they give,” said Plouffe reflecting back on what he felt was the moment that made him a better hitter. “When you get up there you are going to want to get those runs in no matter what, any way you can.”

 

The focus on covering the far reaches of the strike zone eventually translated into power the other way. “Once I got the hang of that it was alright, let’s drive some balls over there. I think that make you a more complete hitter.”

 

As his career has progressed, his power numbers going to right have increased dramatically. In 2012 he posted a .333 slugging percentage to the opposite field. That dropped to .284 in 2013 but ramped up incredibly to .422 last season as he began to bang doubles off the wall. This season? He is posting a robust .556 slugging so far.

 

There’s an element of respect when a hitter demonstrates he can use the entire field. Defenses are not able to shade or shift regularly. Pitchers are not as confident in where they should attack. Teams still adhere to the hard in/soft away tactic with Plouffe but now the Twins’ third baseman is ready.

 

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (1).png

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid.png

The experienced Plouffe appears ready for whatever a pitcher wants to throw at him. Plouffe admits he still hunts for inside fastballs but he has hit five of his home runs on five different types of pitches (fastball, change, slider, curve and cutter) varying in speed and location. In contrast, 10 of his 14 home runs in 2012 came on fastballs. Beyond that, Plouffe has increased his walk rate over the last several seasons which has shown that (1) pitchers are more inclined to pitch around him rather than let him beat them and (2) he is mature enough not to expand the strike zone.

 

When it comes to hitting, the Twins coaching staff stresses understanding the process: recognizing what pitchers are doing to you and what you are doing in response to that. Some players develop that early in their careers and some, like Plouffe in his late twenties, it may take a little bit longer.

 

So far in 2015, it has been worth the wait.

 

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[woolywoolhouse]

The fact that the Twins aren't asking the Miguel Sano try playing a different position than third at this point is still making me uncomfortable. Plouffe has earned his time at third with improved plate-discipline and defense, and - being under 30 - can help the Twins for several years still. But Sano is nearly there when it comes to being major-league ready... one of them has to make a change to somewhere, and having either DH would do neither Sano's development or the team any long-term good.

[Loosey]

 

The fact that the Twins aren't asking the Miguel Sano try playing a different position than third at this point is still making me uncomfortable. Plouffe has earned his time at third with improved plate-discipline and defense, and - being under 30 - can help the Twins for several years still. But Sano is nearly there when it comes to being major-league ready... one of them has to make a change to somewhere, and having either DH would do neither Sano's development or the team any long-term good.

I'm of the belief if you are good enough to play they will find a spot for you.  If Plouffe continues to improve and be a very solid 3rd baseman and hitter, he will stick.  Sano hasn't proven anything other than he can demolish high A pitching and can hit homeruns in AA but so far this year has not done much else (he broke out a bit last night though).  After 4 or 5 years of having very little talent, it will be a good thing for the Twins to finally have multiple good players at the same positions.

[the_youngster]

I do really like Plouffe. He has demonstrated his ability to grow as a player all around. I would like to see a analysis like this but in regards to his defense at third. He was absolutely brutal to watch in the beginning, but I no longer hold my breath when he is making a throw over to first. I would much rather have him manning third than Sano. In my opinion, Sano's future is at first base. It's a good problem to have, but where do you put Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, or even Arcia? One option would be to move Plouffe to the outfield like Cuddyer, and he would probably do a good job as a corner outfielder. But then how do you manage Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter (at least for this year)? Part of me hopes that the Twins move Mauer back to catcher. His bat profiles better there; and that would allow them to have Plouffe and Sano at the infield corners, Vargas/Pinto/Arcia at DH, and the outfield however it plays out.

[sdtwins37]

 

I do really like Plouffe. He has demonstrated his ability to grow as a player all around. I would like to see a analysis like this but in regards to his defense at third. He was absolutely brutal to watch in the beginning, but I no longer hold my breath when he is making a throw over to first. I would much rather have him manning third than Sano. In my opinion, Sano's future is at first base. It's a good problem to have, but where do you put Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, or even Arcia? One option would be to move Plouffe to the outfield like Cuddyer, and he would probably do a good job as a corner outfielder. But then how do you manage Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter (at least for this year)? Part of me hopes that the Twins move Mauer back to catcher. His bat profiles better there; and that would allow them to have Plouffe and Sano at the infield corners, Vargas/Pinto/Arcia at DH, and the outfield however it plays out.

Mauer will not be moving back to catcher.

[stringer bell]

Plouffe's improvement into a well-rounded player gives me hope for many current Twins. He is a far better hitter and fielder than he was a few short years ago.

[Boom Boom]

I would like to see Plouffe get a contract to stick around and play third base a few more years.

 

I'd love to have Sano's bat in the lineup, but I don't think he'll ever be as good defensively there as Plouffe is now. I think Sano is destined for first base anyway.

 

Which means Mauer will have to play a corner outfield spot.

[Trov]

 

I do really like Plouffe. He has demonstrated his ability to grow as a player all around. I would like to see a analysis like this but in regards to his defense at third. He was absolutely brutal to watch in the beginning, but I no longer hold my breath when he is making a throw over to first. I would much rather have him manning third than Sano. In my opinion, Sano's future is at first base. It's a good problem to have, but where do you put Plouffe, Sano, Mauer, Vargas, or even Arcia? One option would be to move Plouffe to the outfield like Cuddyer, and he would probably do a good job as a corner outfielder. But then how do you manage Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, Hicks, and Hunter (at least for this year)? Part of me hopes that the Twins move Mauer back to catcher. His bat profiles better there; and that would allow them to have Plouffe and Sano at the infield corners, Vargas/Pinto/Arcia at DH, and the outfield however it plays out.

The problem you are talking about is a good problem to have, and not one the Twins have had in recent years.  We have too much potential talent and do not have the space for them.  The solution is to find out who is ready, who will stick in the line up, and if need be trade away some to fill other holes.  The past few years players got to play, like Plouffe, because there was no one else ready, but nothing helps players produce better, in my opinion, like some competition for your job. 

[Blake]

I sincerely doubt the Twins will replace Plouffe with Sano unless Sano is the second coming of Gary Gaetti.

 

Sano would have to be a huge upgrade. At this point, Sano may have a better bat, but, Sano probably is not as complete a player as Plouffe.

 

Congratulations to Trevor for putting in the work to reach this point.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I agree with those that think Sano is farther away from being major league ready. The kid missed a whole year and looks it.  I would be shocked if we saw him before September and would not be surprised if he was fighting for a roster spot in the spring.

 

The Sano/Plouffe decision is a classic we will cross that bridge when we come to it situation.  Right now the bridge isn't even on the horizon. 

 

 

[Dave T]

That chart is hilarous.  The best place to pitch Plouffe?  Right down the middle of the plate.

[h2oface]

Great article on the Plouffe progression. Pretty amazing what he has done on particularly the low and away corner and the middle away sector, too. Now if he can just learn to hit those middle of the plate meatballs again............ lookout!

 

Why are some of the squares 1-4 or 0-2 or 0-1, etc., and not .250, .000, and .000? Is there a minimum at bats to use an average? Is .000 0-at least the minumum? 

Edited May 8, 2015 by h2oface

[HitInAPinch]

Looking in from afar, I think the big change for Plouffe can when Molitor started him a the cleanup hitter.  Some people respond better when pushed.  Keep listening to Bruno!!

 

Right now, Sano isn't proving he's the prospect a lot of people think he is.  That being said, his 3 - 5 day yesterday, with 3 singles, is a good sign.  But he still has a very long road to hoe to make it to MLB.  With a good AA season this year and at least a partial one at AAA next year, he just might be ready.

[Parker Hageman]

Why are some of the squares 1-4 or 0-2 or 0-1, etc., and not .250, .000, and .000. Is there a minimum at bats to use an average? Is .000 0-at least the minumum?

 

 

Good question. There is a minimum but I'm not entirely sure what that is. 

 

[BHtwins]

^{#5 in dWAR and #1 in total WAR In  all of MLB among 3B now.  Wonder if he will get any all-star love....}

Edited May 8, 2015 by BHtwins

[troyhobbs]

Plouffe's minor league OPS was .725 w/ 80 HRs in 839 games, Sano's is .927 w/ 95 HRs in 403 games.  Because of Plouffe they can simmer Sano in the minors (unlike the present CF situation where I think Buxton should be fast tracked) but when it comes to long term decisions of Plouffe vs Sano, Sano is still the easy choice for me. But as others have stated, having too many good players is a nice problem to have.

[Thrylos]

History kinda repeats itself.  1958 Senators.  Eddie Yost was the All Star third basement and then a kid by the name of Killebrew came along.

 

Plouffe is not quite as good as Yost was, and Sano could be better than Killebrew (already is with the glove...)

 

The Senators never worried about Yost (FWIW, was traded the next season in 1959) when Killebrew moved up.   Plouffe can replace Hunter at RF, if needs to be so and call it a day.   The Twins will not worry about Plouffe when Sano's time comes (and it better be sooner than later, if this team is still competing this season.)   I think that it is telling that the Twins extended Dozier and not Plouffe who actually has a very similar production.

 

As far as the original post goes, yes, Plouffe is driving runs better this season.   And I am not talking about ribies (which is a worthless metric anyways.)  I really like Fangraphs' "Clutch" metric, which measures how much better (or worse) a hitter does in high leverage situations, vs. content neutral situations.  This is the first year that Plouffe has a positive number.  Same for Win Probability Added (which is another way of looking at that question, better than RBI, but not quite as good as Clutch...)

[jimbo92107]

 

That chart is hilarous.  The best place to pitch Plouffe?  Right down the middle of the plate.

Pitchers must find that chart absolutely terrifying. A .571 average on the low outside corner?? A .500 average middle in?? Not to mention .333 inside low... Jeebus! Plus, it looks like he's just not swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Either throw it down the middle, or walk him. Yikes.

 

Get ready for some tape measure home runs to center field by Trevor Plouffe.

[zchrz]

Plouffe has fulfilled most of the prophecy to become Micheal Cuddyer.  He should be resigned but ultimately he is keeping that bag warm for Sano.  Once he arrives Plouffe can be shifted to the OF or to a Zobrist/ Cuddyer utility role.    

 

At any point along the way if someone offered me a good package for him I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.  How does his value compare to Denard Span, the last guy the twins sold high on?  His skill set as 3B/ middle of the order bat appeals to more teams and does more for their possible pennant chase than a leadoff guy.  Span is a better defender at a more premium defensive position. Plouffe has a much cleaner injury history and isn't coming off a concussion.

 

If Span netted Meyer (despite weather he works out or not) I think Plouffe could return more.  The Twins have bats aplenty coming, I think another possible stud pitcher would be an awesome addition.

[Parker Hageman]

And I am not talking about ribies (which is a worthless metric anyways.)

 

 

Good stats usage discussion topic out of this:

 

I'm going to start with RBI is not worthless. It is just a counting stat. Certainly isn't predictive or provides any context to the performance but, like pitching wins (boo, hiss) it just tallies an event. Like those wins which requires a pitcher's offense to score more runs than the other team, RBI require teammates reaching base. Even with the factors out of a player's control, a pitcher or hitter still has to execute at some level in order to achieve those results. Don't use it as a predictive stat. Don't use it to say someone is good because they reached a certain milestone. Don't use it to compare one player to another. 

 

The Clutch metric, on the other hand, is good in a large sampling and puts less emphasis on a 3-run home run hit at the end of a 18-2 ballgame. Plouffe's positive clutch rating so far this year indicates that he's come through in some big spots. It's a great stat to use at a glace to see if a player's been contributing in key moments. However, say someone hits a well timed walk-off home run like the Cardinals' Kolton Wong did the other night, the Clutch metric shoots sky-high. Or take Adam Eaton of the White Sox. He is currently batting .200/.250/.267 with no runs driven in but he has a higher Clutch figure than Plouffe at this point. Like RBI, it too is not useful as a predictive stat. Hitters who were clutch one year are not the next and vice versa. 

 

RBI is just how often he's done it while Clutch is in what capacity he has done it. 

 

When it comes down to it in most cases, a pitcher is not treating any situation with a runner in scoring position any different from the 1st inning to the 9th. No one wants to let that runner score. Data shows that pitchers often change their pitch mix to favor breaking balls (swing and miss pitches) when runners are in scoring position. Hitters like Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas have struggled in those situations for a reason -- they swing-and-miss a lot and expand the strike zone. Good hitters are able to put those balls in play in a way that gets a runner home and better hitters are able to put those balls in play in a way that gets a runner home AND puts them on base. 

 

/stat nerd out

[drivlikejehu]

It makes no sense to move Plouffe off third base for Sano. Plouffe's improved defense there has made him a very solid player... a lot of that goes out the window as an outfielder. So the choice should be between moving Sano to a different position and trading Plouffe.

 

Since I don't see Sano as a long-term third baseman, I think it makes more sense to consider moving Sano to the outfield until taking over for Mauer at 1B, assuming Sano gets back on track of course. 

 

The only issue there is that the Twins love Rosario, so there may not be an opening. Another possibility is that if Vargas doesn't put it together, to have Arcia and Sano split time between OF and DH, with Sano spelling Mauer at 1B also.

[kab21]

Where exactly do you Plouffe rank as a 3Bman?

 

Guys above him in no order

Donaldson

Rendon

Arenado

Carpenter - maybe not this good

Seager

Beltre - almost finished?

Bryant - not yet but will

 

 

Guys that seem in his tier (in no order)

Frazier

headley

Machado

Longoria - yes, Longoria is in this tier

Pablo

Wright

Chisenhall

Lawrie

Probably a couple of others

 

He seems to be establishing himself as a top 10ish 3Bman and could move up that list a little. 

 

Right now I don't support moving him from 3B and putting Sano there in the future.  This seems ironic since there has been so much analysis about how bad the Twins defense is, critical comments of torii's signing and ideas for improving the said defense.

 

Let Sano continue to play there since it looks like he might not come up this season.  Anything can happen and perhaps the Twins don't have Plouffe in a year or two or he gets injured.  I also think that Plouffe should be signed to an extension.  He is only two years (after this season) away from FA and if he does establish himself as a top 10 (or top 5) 3Bman then he is going to be very expensive to sign.

[troyhobbs]

 

It makes no sense to move Plouffe off third base for Sano. Plouffe's improved defense there has made him a very solid player... a lot of that goes out the window as an outfielder. So the choice should be between moving Sano to a different position and trading Plouffe.

 

Since I don't see Sano as a long-term third baseman, I think it makes more sense to consider moving Sano to the outfield until taking over for Mauer at 1B, assuming Sano gets back on track of course. 

 

The only issue there is that the Twins love Rosario, so there may not be an opening. Another possibility is that if Vargas doesn't put it together, to have Arcia and Sano split time between OF and DH, with Sano spelling Mauer at 1B also.

Sano at 1B would be a waste of his cannon arm and there might not be a clear opening in the OF for him.  His bat plays anywhere but all reports are that he can hold his own at 3B, so if he's on his game offensively, a defensive downgrade at 3B should still be an overall upgrade in the long term. I lean towards a Plouffe trade over an extension. Trading good players isn't really a bad thing. If the Twins tailspin toward another 90 loses again this year I think you trade him, if they hang around and indicate they're close it gets more complicated.

[Blake]

 

 

History kinda repeats itself.  1958 Senators.  Eddie Yost was the All Star third basement and then a kid by the name of Killebrew came along.

 

Plouffe is not quite as good as Yost was, and Sano could be better than Killebrew (already is with the glove...)

 

The Senators never worried about Yost (FWIW, was traded the next season in 1959) when Killebrew moved up.   Plouffe can replace Hunter at RF, if needs to be so and call it a day.   The Twins will not worry about Plouffe when Sano's time comes (and it better be sooner than later, if this team is still competing this season.)   I think that it is telling that the Twins extended Dozier and not Plouffe who actually has a very similar production.

 

As far as the original post goes, yes, Plouffe is driving runs better this season.   And I am not talking about ribies (which is a worthless metric anyways.)  I really like Fangraphs' "Clutch" metric, which measures how much better (or worse) a hitter does in high leverage situations, vs. content neutral situations.  This is the first year that Plouffe has a positive number.  Same for Win Probability Added (which is another way of looking at that question, better than RBI, but not quite as good as Clutch...)

I think you're wrong in the context of the current team. The Twins have plenty of "all bat, marginal field" personnel. The Senators could, I think, afford to give up some fielding for Harmon's bat. The current Twins cannot afford to give up Plouffe's fielding for another bat. 

 

The Twins are currently carrying Nunez, Vargas and Arcia, all of whom have limited fielding ability. At this point, it sounds like Sano would be more of the same.

 

Will Sano improve with the glove? I don't know. Of course, a couple of years ago, I would have laughed if you'd have told me that Trevor Plouffe would become as good with the glove as he is.

 

I'd also point out the Twins infield defense has become markedly improved this year, not a little of which is due to the improved play of Mr. Plouffe. 

[jorgenswest]

Eddie Yost was an all star in 1952. They traded him after the 1958 season for little at age 32. In his 57 and 58 seasons he had WARs of 0.4 and 0.7. I fail to see the comparison to Plouffe who has been far more valuable at this similar spot in career. Yost's perfromance in 57 and 58 is a much better parallel to the CF situation in Minnesota

[diehardtwinsfan]

I can see the benefit of trading Plouffe or moving Sano. Honestly, it's going to come down to where there are openings when Sano is ready. Right now, Sano hasn't given much indication showing he's ready. He's south of the Mendoza line, though he's hitting home runs and drawing walks. I'm hoping that's just rust and the switch will flip here soon, but let's pretend for a second that Sano catches fire, gets sent to Rochester, and continues to rake there... Come 2016, do you put Sano in the OF knowing that Arcia, Buxton, Rosario, and quite possibly Hicks are all competing for time there, or do you trade someone (probably Plouffe)? Do you extend him with a trade in mind? Do you wait another year and slowly work Sano in?

 

I think Plouffe would get a top 100 prospect, and possibly some others thrown in (assuming he hits well this season). I'd think long and hard about that. He's not a star, but you could pencil him in as a starter on a lot of teams, including quite a few playoff contenders.

[kab21]

If Sano is raking then he will be able to make room with Arcia, Rosario, Hicks or Vargas in the OF or at DH.  I don't like the idea of moving Plouffe and putting Sano at 3B.  I'm okay with Hunter's defense for a year but long term I like the idea of setting up a good defense and I am not an optimist that Sano will be anything better than below average.

[USAFChief]

I would make damn sure I have two third basemen before I did something rash and ended up with none.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Agreed Chief.. I do think you make sure Sano can hit MLB pitching first.

 

Side note, where's Halsey?

[Halsey Hall]

 

Agreed Chief.. I do think you make sure Sano can hit MLB pitching first.

Side note, where's Halsey?

Halsey is back after spending a few days at the VA and getting sliced and diced for a double hernia.  Hurt like hell but good to be home. 

 

So as far as poof goes, it's good to see him flashing leather one day and hitting the next recently.  I doubt he'll keep it up, but I like to see wins, so hope he does.  No extension or any thoughts along those lines though.