BA on Draft

[gunnarthor]

 

If Dillon Tate falls to the Twins, I will be flabbergasted, assuming there is no injury between now and then.

Yeah, I can't see how that happens.  

 

[Hrbowski]

 

With respect to Bregman, I don't see how the Twins can justify taking a college SS.  I know the old saying of taking the best player, but we have a mix of young prospects and controlled young-ish veterans. So I personally would be surprised if we go that route.

 

Santana is only 24.  Polanco is only 21 and is very under-rated.  We used the 5th pick last year on Gordon, who is only 19.  Often times SS move to 2B or 3B, but we have the same dynamic there.  Plouffe is 28 and has a few more years of control.  Sano is only 22 and a beast.   And Dozier is 28 on a four year deal.

Look at the Cubs with all their shortstops, look at the Mets with all of their pitching, look at the Royals with their outfield defense, speed, and bullpen. Stockpiling one position isn't a bad idea, not only does it give you great depth, if you take the best player available, and already have depth there, you can then dangle them in trade talks, but if I were the Twins I would want to hang on to Gordon, Bregman, Polanco etc. That way we could end up having one of the best middle infields in baseball.

[Hrbowski]

 

Another mock (from the Kiley-less Scout) which I wouldn't put as much stock into has Dillon Tate falling to the Twins at #6. Harris at 3. It's over a week old... and very interesting.

In this draft I could see anything happening.

[tobi0040]

 

Look at the Cubs with all their shortstops, look at the Mets with all of their pitching, look at the Royals with their outfield defense, speed, and bullpen. Stockpiling one position isn't a bad idea, not only does it give you great depth, if you take the best player available, and already have depth there, you can then dangle them in trade talks, but if I were the Twins I would want to hang on to Gordon, Bregman, Polanco etc. That way we could end up having one of the best middle infields in baseball.

 

I don't view SS and OF and pitching the same.  If a guy is talented enough you have 3 OF spots and 5 SP spots.  But SS can only move to 2B or 3B. That is he stregth of our organization.

 

If we see a huge drop-off between the SS and everything else, go for it.  But if close i take the other...

[Hrbowski]

 

I don't view SS and OF and pitching the same.  If a guy is talented enough you have 3 OF spots and 5 SP spots.  But SS can only move to 2B or 3B. That is he stregth of our organization.

 

If we see a huge drop-off between the SS and everything else, go for it.  But if close i take the other...

So if you can move the shortstop to 2nd or 3rd you then have three places to put him, similar to the three outfield spots, and I believe that pitching, not middle infield, is our strength.

[tobi0040]

 

So if you can move the shortstop to 2nd or 3rd you then have three places to put him, similar to the three outfield spots, and I believe that pitching, not middle infield, is our strength.

 

2B - We just gave a young-ish Dozier a four year deal.  He is arguably our best hitter. 

 

SS - Danny Santana had a WAR of 3.9 last year and is under control another six years.

 

3B - We have a top 10 3B under control another four years. I think he was 2nd or 3rd in WAR for us last year.

 

We have our #2 prospect (Sano), #6 prospect (Gordon), and #8 prospect (Polanco) backing those guys up. Our #6 and #8 could break many teams top fives for sure.

 

MLB has Gordon as the 6th best SS prospect and a few ahead won't stick there. Sano is the 3rd best 3B and a top 10 prospect overall.

 

I would be okay with taking a high school shortstop, as it maybe 4-5 years before they are up.  Dozier and Plouffe are in the 32 range then. But I would think once and twice about a college SS.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can't draft for need. You also can't not draft because of depth. 

 

Shortstops are typically the best athletes. You probably don't want to move them to a corner outfield position, but many shortstops can play center field and could play the corners if needed. And when you're projecting 17- and 18-year-olds, you never know how their body will turn out.

 

At six, it should be simple: Stack your board and draft the top guy that remains. And when you stack that board, if you have two players the same, a pitcher wins the tie. And if a lefty beats a righty.

[tobi0040]

 

You can't draft for need. You also can't not draft because of depth. 

 

Shortstops are typically the best athletes. You probably don't want to move them to a corner outfield position, but many shortstops can play center field and could play the corners if needed. And when you're projecting 17- and 18-year-olds, you never know how their body will turn out.

 

At six, it should be simple: Stack your board and draft the top guy that remains. And when you stack that board, if you have two players the same, a pitcher wins the tie. And if a lefty beats a righty.

 

Just curious.  Do you think the Twins would take a college SS this year if they graded him slightly better than a pitcher, catcher, or corner OF?

 

We can point to the 2012 draft, but I think the Twins felt Buxton was by far the best player in that draft.  A franchise player.  That is a dynamic that may not exist this year at #6.

[gunnarthor]

I think these last few drafts have clearly shown the Twins will draft for BPA over need.  They've picked three HSers at the top of the draft.  

[nicksaviking]

 

2B - We just gave a young-ish Dozier a four year deal.  He is arguably our best hitter. 

 

SS - Danny Santana had a WAR of 3.9 last year and is under control another six years.

 

3B - We have a top 10 3B under control another four years. I think he was 2nd or 3rd in WAR for us last year.

 

Dozier's deal will be about over by the time a 2015 draft pick comes up for the Twins. 

 

I could buy into the idea of not drafting a SS if you already had a young elite SS already performing at the MLB level.  However as much as I like Santana, he's nowhere close to a promised solution.  I'd hesitate if the Twins had a young Tulowitzki, A-Rod or Jeter type.  Santana is nowhere near that, neither is Gordon or Polanco. 

 

And again, Plouffe's deal will be about over by the time a 2015 draft pick comes up, and while I'm a believer in Sano sticking at 3B, I'm not putting ALL my eggs in that basket.

 

I'm not really a BPA guy for the MLB draft, mainly because I think it's pretty impossible to make that determination between pitchers and batters as those guys have absolutely no usefull skillsets to compare, but if a SS is what appears to be the best elite talent, hell ya, take him.

 

That being said, I don't think that about Bergman.

[tobi0040]

 

I think these last few drafts have clearly shown the Twins will draft for BPA over need.  They've picked three HSers at the top of the draft.  

 

We definitely took BP in 2012.  No question.  But this is a team that historically has taken a lot of high school draft picks in the first round.  I count 12 in the first round since 2001.  Not counting supplementals.

 

Mauer, Span, Moses, Plouffe, Waldrop, Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Buxton, Stewart, Gordon.

 

I will also say, very few pospect rankings had Gordon in the top five, yet SS looked like a weak spot at the time.

[markos]

 

2B - We just gave a young-ish Dozier a four year deal.  He is arguably our best hitter. 

 

SS - Danny Santana had a WAR of 3.9 last year and is under control another six years.

 

3B - We have a top 10 3B under control another four years. I think he was 2nd or 3rd in WAR for us last year.

 

We have our #2 prospect (Sano), #6 prospect (Gordon), and #8 prospect (Polanco) backing those guys up. Our #6 and #8 could break many teams top fives for sure.

 

MLB has Gordon as the 6th best SS prospect and a few ahead won't stick there. Sano is the 3rd best 3B and a top 10 prospect overall.

 

I would be okay with taking a high school shortstop, as it maybe 4-5 years before they are up.  Dozier and Plouffe are in the 32 range then. But I would think once and twice about a college SS.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/

Minor correction: Plouffe is a free agent after the 2017 season, so he is under control for just another 2 years after this one.

 

Also, it is unlikely that the even the best college players in this draft will demand a full-time position in the majors after just a single year in the minors, so it is pretty safe to say that any SS they would draft won't be ready until after the 2017 season. That is pretty far out, and right now it certainly seems possible that there would be a spot available for him. It doesn't seem super pessimistic to think that:

1) Plouffe leaves via free agency

2) Santana isn't able to recreate his 2014, and ends up more of a utility player

3) Gordon is still in minors

4) Sano has to move off of 3B

At that point maybe Dozier has lost a step and is a better defensive fit at 3B, and Polanco and this SS are able to man the middle.

[Willihammer]

I'm sure I'm not the only who has tried to find stats on high schoolers so I'll just post what I've found so far.

 

Rodgers: .366/.460/.756 with 8 HRs in first 26 games.

Cameron: .490 BA with 8 home runs, 21 SBs as of May 5

Whitley: .424 OBP, 2 HR, 8 SBs in first 7 games

Plummer (2014): .553/?/1.128

Plummer (2015): .500 BA, 2 HRs, first 14 games

 

[markos]

 

We definitely took BP in 2012.  No question.  But this is a team that historically has taken a lot of high school draft picks in the first round.  I count 12 in the first round since 2001.  Not counting supplementals.

 

Mauer, Span, Moses, Plouffe, Waldrop, Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Buxton, Stewart, Gordon.

 

I will also say, very few pospect rankings had Gordon in the top five, yet SS looked like a weak spot at the time.

 

I've often suspected that the Twins definition of "Best" leans toward HS position player.

[tobi0040]

 

Minor correction: Plouffe is a free agent after the 2017 season, so he is under control for just another 2 years after this one.

 

Also, it is unlikely that the even the best college players in this draft will demand a full-time position in the majors after just a single year in the minors, so it is pretty safe to say that any SS they would draft won't be ready until after the 2017 season. That is pretty far out, and right now it certainly seems possible that there would be a spot available for him. It doesn't seem super pessimistic to think that:

1) Plouffe leaves via free agency

2) Santana isn't able to recreate his 2014, and ends up more of a utility player

3) Gordon is still in minors

4) Sano has to move off of 3B

At that point maybe Dozier has lost a step and is a better defensive fit at 3B, and Polanco and this SS are able to man the middle.

 

Good catch.  I don't know if it is a foregone conclusion that the Twins will let Plouffe or Dozier walk at 31.  This is the same team that signed Mauer thru 37 and signed a 39 year old Hunter.

 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Just curious.  Do you think the Twins would take a college SS this year if they graded him slightly better than a pitcher, catcher, or corner OF?

 

 

Yeah. I think they would.

[Hrbowski]

 

I'm sure I'm not the only who has tried to find stats on high schoolers so I'll just post what I've found so far.

 

Rodgers: .366/.460/.756 with 8 HRs in first 26 games.

Cameron: .490 BA with 8 home runs, 21 SBs as of May 5

Whitley: .424 OBP, 2 HR, 8 SBs in first 7 games

Plummer (2014): .553/?/1.128

Plummer (2015): .500 BA, 2 HRs, first 14 games

Cameron has done the best, but stats are very misleading at the high school level because of how good or bad the opposing pitchers are.

[gunnarthor]

 

We definitely took BP in 2012.  No question.  But this is a team that historically has taken a lot of high school draft picks in the first round.  I count 12 in the first round since 2001.  Not counting supplementals.

 

Mauer, Span, Moses, Plouffe, Waldrop, Parmelee, Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Buxton, Stewart, Gordon.

 

I will also say, very few pospect rankings had Gordon in the top five, yet SS looked like a weak spot at the time.

First, I think most rankings had Gordon in the top five.  And his subsequent rankings at the start of the season reflect that.

 

We might be looking at "need" differently.  I would think that if a team felt it needed a shortstop or pitcher or whatever, it would pick a college guy since the HS takes longer to fill the need (hence all the clamoring for Gausman/Appel over Buxton).  I think it's a bit of a stretch to accuse any team of drafting a HS player and saying it was a "need" pick over BPA.

 

Now whether or not the Twins were right that Buxton/Stewart/Gordon was the BPA when they picked was a different question.  But that they are drafting all those HS kids while the ML team is losing 96 games suggests (to me) that they are not drafting for need but rather taking BPA.

[tobi0040]

Here is a ranking from MLB.  

 

Have we been liked to Tucker at all?  He reads like someone we would be interested in.

 

Fulmer looks to be someone that would be interesting in terms of stuff at 6. 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=draft

[blairpaul715]

 

Good catch.  I don't know if it is a foregone conclusion that the Twins will let Plouffe or Dozier walk at 31.  This is the same team that signed Mauer thru 37 and signed a 39 year old Hunter.

But, they let a good Cuddyer go after 32, and a good Hunter go at 31-32. But you may be talking something else other than age

[tobi0040]

 

But, they let a good Cuddyer go after 32, and a good Hunter go at 31-32. But you may be talking something else other than age

 

They did have offers for both of those guys though.....

[Dman]

i hope they go with a HS player this year.  Seems like we have a lot of depth on the farm so would be good to get young guys and train'em the Twins way.  I think one of the 3 SS could fall to us but I like Nikorak and Tucker if they are still there at 6.  

 

I am not opposed to a college player as that seems to be working out pretty well for the Cubs, but I still like the idea of getting them in the system younger.  I would like them to go with pitching if they go college maybe Funkhouser or Harris but the system seems balanced enough that I would be fine going position player as well. In the end I think they will get a very good player at 6 no matter what they do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

With the exception of an impact college bat, I'd probably go with a high ceiling prep guy if I could.  My 2 cents.

[gunnarthor]

Minor league ball put out their first mock today - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/5/15/8609657/2015-mlb-draft-early-mock-draft

Twins take Bregman.  He also goes through the second round supp picks and has the Twins nabbing Donnie Dewees there.  

[SarasotaBill]

I don't see Bregman staying at SS and he looks like a good player but not a great prospect.

 

Assuming Rodgers, Tate, and Swanson are gone, I would roll the dice on Aiken.

 

However, the Twins will probably not.

 

Allard (if heathly), Tucker, Nikorak, Harris, and Fullmer (he's probably too short for the Twins) are intriguing.  

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't see Bregman staying at SS and he looks like a good player but not a great prospect.

 

Assuming Rodgers, Tate, and Swanson are gone, I would roll the dice on Aiken.

 

However, the Twins will probably not.

 

Allard (if heathly), Tucker, Nikorak, Harris, and Fullmer (he's probably too short for the Twins) are intriguing.  

Yeah, Bregman might be the right pick but he seems boring as well.  I'd rather the Twins take Nikorak, Allard or Aiken.  But it's probably a good thing for all of us that I'm not the one in charge of drafting.  If the Twins think Bregman's the right pick, they should do it.

[InfraRen]

BA just posted Mock 2.0 and had the Twins taking Daz Cameron:

 

6. Twins

If Tate keeps falling, he’ll stop here. Minnesota remains linked to Cameron, but if the Twins want a college pitcher, they’re said to be intrigued by Buehler, who throws harder than UCLA’s James Karpielian and Missouri State’s Jon Harris. The Twins also will scrutinize Jay here.

Selection: Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mlb-mock-draft-2015-version-2-0/

[Dman]

Maybe I have lost my mind but I kind of feel like Taking Aiken at 6 is the way to go.  He has the pitches to be a 1 or 2.  Maybe I am far too optimistic about his recovery to make a logical decision about him.  Normally I am a very risk averse person so not sure why I think this would be a good idea other than he is left handed and a former number 1 pick.  I just have a feeling he is going to be very good despite the surgery and think his upside is higher than anyone else at that pick.  The thing is his downside could be the lowest as well.  Like everyone has said the Twins will get someone good no matter what so it probably doesn't matter that much and if they listened to me in the past they wouldn't have Buxton and other good players so what do I know.

[Willihammer]

Any word on Bregman's teammate Chris Chinea? He's the LSU catcher, a junior. Leads the team in HRs (10), BA (.379), Slg (.592) and OPS (1.004).

[Hrbowski]

 

Any word on Bregman's teammate Chris Chinea? He's the LSU catcher, a junior. Leads the team in HRs (10), BA (.379), Slg (.592) and OPS (1.004).

From Baseball Draft Report:

Chris Chinea is a good athlete with a big raw power and a solid defensive reputation. His teammate SR C Kade Scivicque joins him in what has to be one of college ball’s top catching tandems. It would hardly be a surprise to see the talented Scivicque get selected before Chinea with the former’s senior sign status giving him the edge for teams that view them as comparable talents.

 

I have been doing a lot of research on LSU, and I think that they have got like 10 guys who could be drafted; they are really good.