Article: What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?

[Hrbowski]

 

Here's where the projected Super 2 date might come into consideration?

I think that date has passed.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

I think Mike is right. The way I understand it is that if they call him up in September (or at any point in 2015), his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until late in the 2021 season, at which point he will become a free agent after that season. However, if they hold off in calling him up until next April 14th (or so), then his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until early in the 2022 season. So I agree with Mike's logic - it makes no sense (from an asset management standpoint) to exchange 30-35 games this September when he will be a 21-year-old rookie for the entire 2022 season when he will be a 28 and in the prime of his career. 

 

Or am I misunderstanding how the system works as well?

 

That's assuming he comes up in September and never plays in the minor leagues again. Remember the concern that the Twins were losing a year on Hicks when he made the Opening Day Roster?  Heck, Mike Trout debuted in July of 2011 and still spent the first month in the minor leagues in 2012.

 

The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

 

The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

[jokin]

 

Overwhelmingly, the consensus of the commenters on this thread is that Buxton will (or should) be up in a matter of weeks.

 

I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

 

Crazy game, this baseball.

 

Not me.  At the time I said to expect by June to see Buxton in the top ten in multiple hitting categories in the Southern League- he's already eclipsed my timeline .  The dude was, is, and will be, the real deal- people still don't appreciate enough what he had to overcome in the aftermath of a nightmare 2014.   

[jokin]

 

I think that date has passed.

 

No, it will be some time in July.

[jokin]

 

That's assuming he comes up in September and never plays in the minor leagues again. Remember the concern that the Twins were losing a year on Hicks when he made the Opening Day Roster?  Heck, Mike Trout debuted in July of 2011 and still spent the first month in the minor leagues in 2012.

 

The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

 

The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

Based on the Marlins track record, they don't care about this calculation, they just bring up the best players.

[tobi0040]

 

Based on the Marlins track record, they don't care about this calculation, they just bring up the best players.

 

I think this statement needs a caveat.  Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation.

 

Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

But that means if you call him up for September 2015, you have to keep him down until almost June 2016 to get that extra year.  Given the options the Twins currently have, if Buxton plays even modestly well, it might be very difficult to keep him down that long in 2016.

 

The Angels did not extend their years of control in their demotions of Mike Trout.  (Of course, he was up for about 2 months in 2011, and down for less than a month to begin 2012.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think this statement needs a caveat.  Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation.

 

Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.

That is also true.  But they are not shy about promoting prospects (and they have a very good track record about it).

[DocBauer]

Sorry to be echoing some very intelligent responses, but it's not numbers...or even a date...its approach. I don't care if Buxton is only hitting .250, as long as his approach is sound, he's taking walks and not striking out, and playing great defense and not making blunders on the base paths. I mean, what if he's doing everything perfect, with a .400 OB% but just hitting in to tough luck and being pitched around. Would you hold him back because of a low BA?

 

Likewise, what if he's hitting over .300 but has a .350 OB, is only stealing bases at a 60% clip and making some tracking or throwing errors in the OF. Do you promote him because of his BA and you feel desperate?

 

Don't mess with Byron. With a name like that, you know he's going to be great. (Wink) I don't know if TR's trip is going to be a decision maker or not, but my guess he gets all or most of May yet, then hits Rochester around June 1st. That would give him...potentially now...2 months of AA, 2 months of AAA, with the idea of coming up to the Twins around August 1st.

 

I don't want to lose extra service time with Buxton either. And hopefully when he is up, he's up for good. And he probably will be. But if Buxton is close to the player he's expected to be, service time won't be an issue. Do you really think the Twins will just re-up him year to year? Or is it more likely he will be signed to something longer term anyway?

 

BTW...except for the name thing...this applies almost identically to Sano as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

With a pitching prospect (and to a lesser degree, any prospect), the value of an extra season of control 7 years from now is highly speculative.  If you are confident in your current evaluation of him (and the Marlins track record suggests such confidence is warranted), I'd rather err on the side of present-day performance.

 

Look at the Twins and Liriano -- they did not play any service time games with him in 2005-2006, and in fact didn't get much value out of his first 3 months service time either (September call-up and then almost 2 months of mop-up bullpen work).  But his later injury (not unexpected, by the way) made it all moot in terms of cost/leverage.

 

Lo and behold, Fernandez also suffered a not-unpredictable injury.  He hasn't lost any service time due to it yet, but his lost season will likely lower his future cost and leverage (and his recovery may easily warrant a minor league assignment which could gain them that extra year of control anyway), even if he does eventually return to being a star pitcher.

[Mjosefson]

If Buxton continues to hit like he has the last week in change and its June or mid june I say call him up. His speed alone with his defense will save runs and hes a different animal then Hicks is so skipping AAA shouldn't matter all that much. If he can give the twins a jolt  it will help the team.  

[Willihammer]

Andrew Albers struck him out in spring training. That alone is enough to make me think he should at least make a courtesy stop in AAA first.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's hope he forces Ryan's hand in 4-5 weeks.......or 6......

 

So, I'm not totally wrong, or totally right, about the numbers.....but if he does not ever go back down, it looks like calling him up in September is a bad idea.

 

Would you take that risk? I would not.

 

thanks to those of you that politely discussed this part. Appreciated.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

December 2018

That's your timeline for Buxton?

Ay caramba...

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Andrew Albers struck him out in spring training. That alone is enough to make me think he should at least make a courtesy stop in AAA first.

Mauer struck out once in high school, and he still got to skip AAA.

[John Kelsey]

 

It sounds like Carlos Correa is getting promoted to AAA soon - next week or so.

 

Having an OPS over 1.200 will do that, I suppose. 

[tellis205]

Alot of interesting comments.  I'll settle for him staying healthy for an extended period of time.  If he does, everything else will fall in line.  

[Thrylos]

Realistic?

 

Depends on whether the Twins will (gulp) keep contending this season, depends on the performance of the other outfielders, his performance the rest of the season and injuries.  I got to think that Hicks is next in line as he is out of options next season and leads all the Twins' OFs in any level with a .318/.396/.545 slash.  It is boarderline ridiculous that he is not with the Twins at this point.

 

Don't forget that Arcia will have a spot and Hunter will have another (realistically, pending injuries or trades.)

 

I just cannot see it happening in 2015. 

 

Would I mind it if they jettison or bench Hunter for a Hicks-Buxton-Arcia OF?  Nope.  But realistically it's not happening...

[jokin]

 

Realistic?

  I got to think that Hicks is next in line ......  It is boarderline ridiculous that he is not with the Twins at this point.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, there is also the issue with his borderline personality.

[Nolasco5and4]

Molitor said it was a temporary stay and Hicks has demonstrated that his confidence at the plate is fragile, at best, in the big leagues. Bouncing him up and down would not serve much purpose.

 

Buxton's development is surely a crucial var in determining his callup date, but it would be somewhat naive to discount the role his Super Two status plays into his eventual callup. If big market teams like the Angels and Cubs (with regard to service time, not Super Two) play games to tack on a year of player control, it is surely a powerful force in their decision-making process.

 

However, if the stadium remains less than 67% full after school lets out, I would wager July 24th as the date. He has, with the exception of any lingering injury doubts, proved almost everything he has to in the minor leagues. His only scuffling had to do with freak injuries last season. There is a high probability that he will excel from day one as a major leaguer, especially considering a five tool star can struggle in one or two areas and still have a positive impact on the team.

[bird]

 

TWO weeks ago we were ready to send Danny Santana to the minors and now he's gotten his average up to .260. 

 

 

This is the stuff that keeps us all so dang humble.

[kab21]

I think we will be seeing Buxton in July.  It's very unlikely that 3 of Hunter, Arcia, Robinfer, Hicks or Rosario are playing well and healthy.  This does mean that Buxton needs to be healthy and playing really well (like .850 OPS sustained).

[bird]

 

I really would like to see him by June 19. 

 

Incidentally I have tickets for that game.

 

Any extras? That's my birthday.

[sploorp]

Buxton is tearing it up at Chattanooga.  I don't think he is going to be a minor league player for very much longer.  Forget projections, his glove and his speed is elite and major league right now.  Even if he comes up and stinks with the bat, because of the rest of his tools, I can't imagine him not being an improvement over what we have in center field right now.

 

All winter I've been listening to posters complain about the team not investing in a center fielder.  More and more I'm becoming convinced the team has believed they had one all along.

 

I'm really loving the way the team is starting to come together and a Buxton promotion would be the icing on the cake.

[ashbury]

This is the stuff that keeps us all so dang humble.

Yeah, I've noticed that a lot here.

[sploorp]

 

It is boarderline ridiculous that he [Hicks] is not with the Twins at this point.

 

There is nothing ridiculous about it.  They gave the guy every chance to succeed.  They traded Span and then Revere to make room for him.  I think Hicks will be back at some point, but not anytime soon.

 

Buxton is the Twins guy now.  I think Buxton makes his debut before Hicks gets another chance.

[troyhobbs]

Buxton is the top prospect in baseball and the twins are only 2.5 games out of first. Ya some of that is smoke and mirrors and he may not be the next Mike Trout but I'm surprised more people aren't in favor of pushing him through. No need to slow cook, look whose "blocking" him.

 

EDIT: meant may NOT be the next Mike Trout 

[Shane Wahl]

 

Buxton is the top prospect in baseball and the twins are only 2.5 games out of first. Ya some of that is smoke and mirrors and he may be the next Mike Trout but I'm surprised more people aren't in favor of pushing him through. No need to slow cook, look whose "blocking" him.

 

While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

 

And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

[tobi0040]

 

While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

 

And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

 

These are valid points, specifically about the breaking ball.  We need our scouts to confirm that he won't be exposed against major league breaking balls.

[troyhobbs]

 

While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

 

And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

Your ideology is probably more rational and I'd be down for a AAA stint before the show. Just that as highly as he's touted, he's much more of a can't miss than Hicks, Arcia, or anyone outside of Joe Mauer has ever been in the Twins system so that's why I'm surprised the majority of posters are a bit leery (if that's the right word) of his talents.