Article: What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?

[blairpaul715]

 

 

Buxton would be under control for the next 7 years, thru age 28.  We will owe him $2M for the first four years combined ($500K each), then worst case about $30M total for the next three.

 

I calculate him being owed $32M over the next seven years.

 

The Twins will either get Buxton, and Sano for that matter to take a long term deal at a discount (and overpay in the beginning) or trade them.  I don't see the Twins handing either an 8-10 year deal in the $35-$40M range per season.  Especially if they are buying years primarily in their 30's.  I don't think that approach makes much sense.

But I see him being owed about 44 Million the next seven yrs with inflation , if he is as good as we hope he will be.........3 plus yrs at $.550, Arb 1 at $7.5M, Arb 2 at $11M, and Arb 3 at $22M, but hope that will be moot point as I hope we have a 6 yr extension at that time of about $150M, in the Trout price zone, hope that seems more accurate to you Tobi

[tobi0040]

 

But I see him being owed about 44 Million the next seven yrs with inflation , if he is as good as we hope he will be.........3 plus yrs at $.550, Arb 1 at $7.5M, Arb 2 at $11M, and Arb 3 at $22M, but hope that will be moot point as I hope we have a 6 yr extension at that time of about $150M, in the Trout price zone, hope that seems more accurate to you Tobi

 

I suppose it would go up a bit.  David Price won almost $20M in arb 3.  If we have him until he is 28, I would look to tack on 4-5 years to that down the road.  That gives us a 12 year run with Buxton.  He would be 33-34 then.  I don't want to be paying $35M a year for a 35-38 year old corner OF.

 

The salaries at the very high end have actually had very little inflation since A-Rod's $25.2M per year that he signed in 2000.    It took seven years for any player to break that, which was him again in 2007 at $27.5M per year.   Eight years later, the highest paid position player is Miguel Cabrera at $29.2M per year.  The highest pitcher is at $32M.

[davidc3915]

 

I really would like to see him by June 19. 

 

Incidentally I have tickets for that game.

 

How about when they next visit Chicago?  I'd head over to the 'Cell for that for sure!

[blairpaul715]

 

I suppose it would go up a bit.  David Price won almost $20M in arb 3.  If we have him until he is 28, I would look to tack on 4-5 years to that down the road.  That gives us a 12 year run with Buxton.  He would be 33-34 then.  I don't want to be paying $35M a year for a 35-38 year old corner OF.

 

The salaries at the very high end have actually had very little inflation since A-Rod's $25.2M per year that he signed in 2000.    It took seven years for any player to break that, which was him again in 2007 at $27.5M per year.   Eight years later, the highest paid position player is Miguel Cabrera at $29.2M per year.  The highest pitcher is at $32M.

But Trout is going to make $33+M in yrs 2018-2020, and i dont think any agent is going to let Buxton sign past his age 30 season without it going to at least age 36........and i agree i dont want to be paying a player past his age 35 season big bucks, but to get him for ages 31-33 you will have to pay out to at least age 36 if not more. And if Pujols and Cabrera are any indication, Buxton, as well as i am sure Trout will want a 10 yr contract at the age of 30, for what will be at least $300M. If Pujols can get $240M , Trout and if Buxton is what we think he might be, they will get $300M.

[tobi0040]

 

But Trout is going to make $33+M in yrs 2018-2020, and i dont think any agent is going to let Buxton sign past his age 30 season without it going to at least age 36........and i agree i dont want to be paying a player past his age 35 season big bucks, but to get him for ages 31-33 you will have to pay out to at least age 36 if not more. And if Pujols and Cabrera are any indication, Buxton, as well as i am sure Trout will want a 10 yr contract at the age of 30, for what will be at least $300M. If Pujols can get $240M , Trout and if Buxton is what we think he might be, they will get $300M.

 

Stanton's deal averages only $25M and we don't know how good Buxton will be. We are putting him in the same category as a guy (Trout) who has had some of the best seasons statistically before his 23rd birthday.  Or a guy who has won a triple crown.

 

You never know.  Buxton is supposedly really humble and down to earth. Maybe throwing 5-125 on top of his 7 years of control when he is 24 years old will be Ok with him. The only caveat here is the last time I thought this about a player, it was Joe Mauer.  Charley Walters wrote that he invested his $5M signing bonus wisely and that could take care of his finances for the rest of his life because he was so frugal.  That was before the $40M deal, which was before the $184M deal.

 

 

 

[blairpaul715]

 

Stanton's deal averages only $25M and we don't know how good Buxton will be. We are putting him in the same category as a guy (Trout) who has had some of the best seasons statistically before his 23rd birthday.  Or a guy who has won a triple crown.

 

You never know.  Buxton is supposedly really humble and down to earth. Maybe throwing 5-125 on top of his 7 years of control when he is 24 years old will be Ok with him. The only caveat here is the last time I thought this about a player, it was Joe Mauer.  Charley Walters wrote that he invested his $5M signing bonus wisely and that could take care of his finances for the rest of his life because he was so frugal.  That was before the $40M deal, which was before the $184M deal.

Well generally the more yrs you guarantee, you can get by with less avg annual salary, not always, but usually .......I mean , Stanton got a great deal, cuz if he gets hurt he is guaranteed $325M and if he is great he gets to opt out after 2020 to make even more money. Crazy!!!!! isnt it......... If I am Washington Nationals, i am signing Harper to a 16 yr contract for $400M, but he would turn it down, he has Boras as an agent, and i bet he will command $40M a yr on FA market in 4 yrs........he will be a FA entering his age 26 season.

Edited May 11, 2015 by blairpaul715

[tobi0040]

 

Well generally the more yrs you guarantee, you can get by with less avg annual salary, not always, but usually .......I mean , Stanton got a great deal, cuz if he gets hurt he is guaranteed $325M and if he is great he gets to opt out after 2020 to make even more money. Crazy!!!!! isnt it......... If I am Washington Nationals, i am signing Harper to a 16 yr contract for $400M, but he would turn it down, he has Boras as an agent, and i bet he will command $40M a yr on FA market in 4 yrs........he will be a FA entering his age 26 season.

 

My market expectations are much lower than yours.

 

From 2000 to 2007, the highest paid player was making $25M (A Rod).

 

From 2007 to about 2014 the highest paid position player was making $27.5M (A-Rod). 

 

Cabrera's deal in 2014 was is the highest AAV for position players at $29.2M (Kershaw is at $32M).

 

A total of 16% growth in 14 years for position players.  Not to mention, Trout and Miguel Cabrera are much better than Harper.

 

Edited May 11, 2015 by tobi0040

[BK432]

 

My market expectations are much lower than yours.

 

From 2000 to 2007, the highest paid player was making $25M (A Rod).

 

From 2007 to about 2014 the highest paid position player was making $27.5M (A-Rod). 

 

Cabrera's deal in 2014 was is the highest AAV for position players at $29.2M (Kershaw is at $32M).

 

A total of 16% growth in 14 years for position players.  Not to mention, Trout and Miguel Cabrera are much better than Harper.

 

The problem with that logic, though, is the new TV contract money. Many expect salaries to explode in the next 5 years. Lots more money to spend out there.

[blairpaul715]

 

My market expectations are much lower than yours.

 

From 2000 to 2007, the highest paid player was making $25M (A Rod).

 

From 2007 to about 2014 the highest paid position player was making $27.5M (A-Rod). 

 

Cabrera's deal in 2014 was is the highest AAV for position players at $29.2M (Kershaw is at $32M).

 

A total of 16% growth in 14 years for position players.  Not to mention, Trout and Miguel Cabrera are much better than Harper.

I agree that both Trout and Cabrera are better, but Boras seems to get top dollar for his clients, and Harper , if he becomes a FA will have all the top dollar teams after him, like Trout he makes you a ton of money on marketing, love him or hate him, everyone who barely follows baseball knows him.........I dont know if anyone has a better known name in baseball right now and he is 22........Kershaw maybe, Trout of course, soon to be Harvey, maybe i am missing someone, give me a name or two other than that, if there is anymore ........Sorry if moderators read this, this has gotten off topic and be my last on this part of the subject

[tobi0040]

 

The problem with that logic, though, is the new TV contract money. Many expect salaries to explode in the next 5 years. Lots more money to spend out there.

 

In 2000, total revenue was $3.4B.  In 2007, it was $6.1B.  An increase of 79% while the top player only went up about 10%. 

 

From 2007 to 2014 revenue went up another 31%, while the top player went up about another 10%.

 

They may go up, but I think the impact of the new cable deal has been overblown.  Last off-season was not crazy.  And I just don't think they get to a point where $40M for Harper is a bargain in the next 5-7 years.

 

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5919:an-18-year-look-at-mlb-revenues-and-how-it-impacts-free-agency&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39

[70charger]

Now that we're talking about $40 million per year contracts for 10+ years, I think we've blown past the "timeline" conversation, and we've definitely blown past the "realistic" conversation.

[kab21]

I think we might be jumping the gun a little by planning out 30-40M/yr contracts for Buxton.  Those types of contracts will be given to the most elite of the elite players.  Right now it should be considered a moderate success if Buxton turned into an early career BJ Upton.  He was worth 3-5 WAR/yr as a Ray.  Yes, Buxton has the chance to be Michael Trout but many of these elite prospects never reach that potential.

[tobi0040]

I think we might be jumping the gun a little by planning out 30-40M/yr contracts for Buxton. Those types of contracts will be given to the most elite of the elite players. Right now it should be considered a moderate success if Buxton turned into an early career BJ Upton. He was worth 3-5 WAR/yr as a Ray. Yes, Buxton has the chance to be Michael Trout but many of these elite prospects never reach that potential.

Agreed. Trout had the 21st best season in mlb history by WAR two years ago at 20.

 

As it relates to buxton. I stick by mid June if his OPS starts with an 8 by then. He is 1 for 1 and terry saw him open the game with a HR tonight.

[Blake]

I tuned into the Sox versus the Brewers just in time to catch the highlight shot to center by Carlos Gomez. Then, due to some sloppy fielding by the Sox, Gomez turned a triple into a run. (E9)

 

That is all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Carlos Correa was promoted to AAA by the Astros today.

[ashbury]

Carlos Correa was promoted to AAA by the Astros today.

Why? His OPS is only .726 in AA.

 

Oops, oh wait, that's his slugging average, alone.

[tobi0040]

 

Why? His OPS is only .726 in AA.

 

Oops, oh wait, that's his slugging average, alone.

 

That is crazy.  I would still rather have Buxton. I think he ends up impacting the game in more ways than Correa.

[Steven Buhr]

Buxton and Correa will probably forever be linked and compared because of the circumstances of their draft order. The obvious difference in their development, so far, is the "lost year" Buxton had in 2014. It would be very interesting to know where Buck would have been this year had he not been injured for so much of last summer. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that, with a full 2014 of develoment, he could have been the Twins opening day CF this season. How would that have compared with Correa's development path?

[Mike Sixel]

Why can't we be happy they are both good? Why do people feel compelled to compare them all the time?

[tobi0040]

 

Why can't we be happy they are both good? Why do people feel compelled to compare them all the time?

 

I am happy for them both but I think it is somewhat natural to compare.  You can play the what if game and of course, rip on the GM of the team that passed on the "better player".

 

 

[Steven Buhr]

 

Why can't we be happy they are both good? Why do people feel compelled to compare them all the time?

Pondering the road not taken is just something humans are prone to doing. It's not really an issue for Twins fans because it's not like the Twins had the option of taking Correa. But the Astros chose Correa over Buxton, for reasons that were as much about finances as ability, and the debate about that strategy was immediate.

 

If both turn out to be All-Stars, none of it matters. And that's not at all an unlikely scenario.

[Willihammer]

Buxton and Correa will probably forever be linked and compared because of the circumstances of their draft order. The obvious difference in their development, so far, is the "lost year" Buxton had in 2014. It would be very interesting to know where Buck would have been this year had he not been injured for so much of last summer. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that, with a full 2014 of develoment, he could have been the Twins opening day CF this season. How would that have compared with Correa's development path?

Correa did get more games in last summer but he missed time due to injury too (cracked fibula). Buxton also returned to play fall ball. In all he played only about ~15 fewer games last year.

 

From where I'm standing the main divergence in their development occurred this spring at AA. Buxton has obviously been doing well, but Correa went all Kris Bryant on that league.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Correa did get more games in last summer but he missed time due to injury too (cracked fibula). Buxton also returned to play fall ball. In all he played only about ~15 fewer games last year.

From where I'm standing the main divergence in their development occurred this spring at AA. Buxton has obviously been doing well, but Correa went all Kris Bryant on that league.

Good point.  Correa is also about 9 months younger.  (Holy cow, just noticed Correa had 24 XBH including 7 HR in 29 games at AA!  That's even better than any calendar month from Bryant, albeit a couple more of Bryant's went over the fence.)

 

Addison Russell is another guy from that draft (#11 overall), only a month younger than Buxton, missed time last year but got most of his PA at AA, so he was able to start 2015 at AAA and quickly ascend to MLB.

Edited May 13, 2015 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

Good point.  Correa is also about 9 months younger.  (Holy cow, just noticed Correa had 24 XBH including 7 HR in 29 games at AA!  That's even better than any calendar month from Bryant, albeit a couple more of Bryant's went over the fence.)

 

Addison Russell is another guy from that draft (#11 overall), only a month younger than Buxton, missed time last year but got most of his PA at AA, so he was able to start 2015 at AAA and quickly ascend to MLB.

 

I think Buxton is moving about as quick as we could have ever hoped, given last year.I think he will be up about mid June and would have likely been at least a Sept. callup last year and started this April.

 

Apart from plucking him from high A as a 19 year old (faster than Trout), this June is about the earliest he could have been up. 

 

[nicksaviking]

If Hunter continues to hit, and whatever combinaiton of Hicks/Arcia/Vargas/Rosario show that they belong, then what?  In the hypothetical situation where injuries and production are not an issue for Hunter and the kids, does the club promote Buxton even if he's tearing it up in the minors?

[tobi0040]

 

If Hunter continues to hit, and whatever combinaiton of Hicks/Arcia/Vargas/Rosario show that they belong, then what?  In the hypothetical situation where injuries and production are not an issue for Hunter and the kids, does the club promote Buxton even if he's tearing it up in the minors?

 

Buxton is the only sure thing among the rest of the guys.  If he is ready, you make room.

[jokin]

 

Correa did get more games in last summer but he missed time due to injury too (cracked fibula). Buxton also returned to play fall ball. In all he played only about ~15 fewer games last year.

From where I'm standing the main divergence in their development occurred this spring at AA. Buxton has obviously been doing well, but Correa went all Kris Bryant on that league.

 

I think Buxton might have taken the fibula break over three wrist injuries, a concussion and a surgically repaired finger.

[nicksaviking]

 

Buxton is the only sure thing among the rest of the guys.  If he is ready, you make room.

 

I'm sure most folks here agree.  My hypothetical is supposing what the front office will do.  I don't think they make room for him if all the current roadblocks are playing well (and winning).

Edited May 13, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sure most folks here agree.  My hypothetical is supposing what the front office will do.  I don't think they make room for him if all the current roadblocks are playing well (and winning).

I tend to agree.  Just like they don't like to mess with their opening day roster for a month or two, I think they don't like to mess with a winning club midseason.  Although if Hicks indeed stays and Schafer is shipped out, that is a good sign -- not sure it would apply to Buxton skipping a level, though, especially if there isn't another Schafer-level performer to replace.

 

But between Arcia, Vargas, Hunter, and the DH spot (not to mention Hicks), none of whom offer a great all-around game yet, it shouldn't be too hard to fit Buxton in.

[kab21]

 

If Hunter continues to hit, and whatever combinaiton of Hicks/Arcia/Vargas/Rosario show that they belong, then what?  In the hypothetical situation where injuries and production are not an issue for Hunter and the kids, does the club promote Buxton even if he's tearing it up in the minors?

 

I'm not sure what the problem is.  Hicks is the only CF'er.  I think it would be considered a major victory if Hicks was a .700 OPS hitter.  If he is doing that then the Twins won't feel as much pressure to promote him but a .700 OPS hitter isn't going to stand in Buxton's way when it's time to come up.