Article: What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?

[Nick Nelson]

I made my first trip of the year to Target Field last Friday, and had a fantastic time. It was a beautiful evening and the Twins played a very crisp ballgame, winning 1-0 behind a tremendous start from Kyle Gibson.

 

Yet, as I looked around the park from my seats down the first base line, I couldn't help but feel a sense of disappointment with the sparsity of the crowd. The announced attendance of 22,794 -- their second-largest since Opening Day -- seemed overstated, with empty seats littering the lower deck.

 

The Twins moved within a game of .500 that night, and by the end of the weekend they had a winning record. In the wake of a dreadful start, this team has been playing good ball, positioning itself for relevancy in the AL Central at least early on.

 

But the fans, mired in apathy following a fourth straight 90-loss season, haven't responded by filling the stadium. Already the Twins have drawn fewer than 20,000 on five occasions; last year that happened once, in September.

 

Continuing to win games at a solid clip will help bring back some wayward fans, but what this team needs is a spark plug that generates real excitement and gets the entire baseball world buzzing.

 

They'll have one soon in Byron Buxton. But how soon?Buxton's allure goes beyond the fact that he's arguably the best prospect in the game. His dynamic skill set will make him appointment viewing, because he's capable of doing amazing things on a regular basis. That's been on display at Class-AA Chattanooga over his past 10 games, during which Buxton has batted .415 with five steals, four triples and two homers -- one of them a walk-off shot on Monday night.

 

Not only will Buxton's arrival deliver an enormous marketing jolt, it will more importantly provide a huge boost on the field. He offers so many things that the Twins desperately need if they want to hang around as a contender in the AL Central.

 

Offering elite speed along with the ability to draw walks and get on base, Buxton is a prototypical leadoff hitter. When you look at the production from the top three spots in the Twins' lineup, it is obvious that they could use one of those, as the struggles of Danny Santana and others have lessened the impact of the two spots that follow in the order (often occupied by Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer):

 

No. 1 Hitter: .261/.289/.383

No. 2 Hitter: .273/.322/.445

No. 3 Hitter: .297/.374/.386

 

Twins leadoff hitters have produced the lowest OBP of any spot in the lineup save for No. 9.

 

Capable of running down any fly ball in his zip code and possessing a cannon arm, Buxton profiles as a premium defensive center fielder. The Twins have been trotting out a pseudo-platoon of Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson in center up to this point, leaving much to be desired. Buxton would fill the biggest hole in the lineup while also substantially upgrading a porous outfield defense.

 

Then there's this: In some capacity, Torii Hunter was supposedly brought on to serve in a mentorship role, but presently there aren't really any young players on the roster for him to help along -- not any that speak much English, anyway. Buxton is seemingly one of the players who stands to benefit most from Hunter's influence, but he can't do so in Chattanooga. With Hunter on a one-year deal, the Twins need to get their star prospect up in the somewhat near future if they want Hunter to be able to aid his transition to the majors.

 

When you take all these things into account, it's easy to see why the Twins might feel a bit more urgency to bring Buxton along more quickly than they typically would. But of course, all of these factors are superseded by the importance of his development.

 

They're not going to do anything that may negatively affect his ability to smoothly and successfully make the jump to the majors, nor should they. And despite his recent blazing hot streak, Buxton remains a 21-year-old coming off a lost season, with just 24 games of experience in Double-A.

 

As badly as they were burned by the Aaron Hicks experience, one could understand the Twins opting for a conservative approach with their most prized asset, waiting until September or maybe even 2016 to consider a promotion regardless of his performance in the minors.

 

However, I really can't emphasize this enough: Buxton is a different animal. He's a transcendent talent, on another level entirely from prospects such as Hicks or Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas. The Twins won't -- or at least shouldn't -- feel trepidation based on those past examples.

 

Buxton's prospect caliber matches that of a young Joe Mauer, who was installed as a big-leaguer at age 21 after just 73 games in Double-A and caught on immediately. It matches Mike Trout, who was in the majors for good at age 20. It matches Kris Bryant, who was called up by the Cubs last month after just 181 total games in the minors, and is now excelling in Chi-town.

 

Clearly, Buxton is not in line for an imminent promotion to the big leagues. He needs to continue working in Chattanooga for the time being, to prove that he's fully back on track and to keep building confidence.

 

If he does both of those things for a couple of more months, and the All-Star break is approaching, and the Twins still need his services as badly as they do now?

 

Why not?

 

Click here to view the article

[Shane Wahl]

Finish May in AA, move to AAA until the All-Star break, and then join the Twins

[Rosterman]

Unless something drastic happens, Rosario and Hicks are the outfielders that will see time before September. If the Twins falter, Hunter could be traded to a contender. We do know Robinson and Schafer are placesetters.

 

Buxton is not on the 40-man. Do they need to have him put in time at Rochester. Will he do a substantial number of games there this year. Is it worth it to bring him to Target Field for the month of September. Will the Twins be cautious and let him start next season (service time)at Rochester. 

 

So much depends on Vargas as DH. If Arcia is kept or traded. If Hicks can find a place on the Twins roster. If Rosario is worth the time and trouble.

[troyhobbs]

Why not now?  Dump Shafer, keep Robinson as a 4th OF until he falters or as I just posted in another thread, maybe try to deal Arcia (he gets hurt too much and has holes in his game, though I still like him) to make room for Hicks or Rosario. 

[gunnarthor]

I think Shane is right.  Ryan has already said he hopes that Buxton will be up this year.  He'll be up around mid-season.

[twinstalker]

First, Hicks was a different animal.  There was nothing but hope that said he was ready for anything other than an attempt at AAA in 2013.  The Twins stunted his development by crossing their fingers.  Given his development rate at the time, 2013 should have been spent at AAA, last year he should have seen his first substantial time in the majors, and this year he should have been expected to be ready.  Buxton, on the other hand, learns and adjusts very quickly.

 

The Twins have many considerations wrt Buxton and their current makeup.  They have Schafer and Robinson in there currently, they are not yet out of contention, they have Hicks mostly ready and Rosario possibly close enough.  Both will be given a chance (it's obvious that Molitor has a lot of affection for Rosario).  Buxton will need to stay in the minors through most of June to guarantee non-super two status, and the Twins will need his impetus at the gate when there's not much else to cheer for.

 

This all screams for sometime in July.

[Seth Stohs]

A couple of things:

 

#1 - Terry Ryan is scheduled to be in Chattanooga (or wherever they're playing this weekend). We've seen it before. When he goes on a trip to an affiliate (usually AAA for obvious reasons), he sees things and makes decisions based on those trips. Worth seeing how Buxton does this weekend, offensively and defensively.

 

#2 - About the time he came back from missing two games, I was watching Chattanooga on milb.tv. His at bats were different. His swings weren't wild. He was taking balls and taking good swings at strikes. Compared to those first 10-12 games, he was a different hitter. He was back to what made him so great in 2013. 

 

#3 - HE's absolutely blazing right now. He's not going to keep hitting .415, so the Twins need to evaluate the process more than the results right now. It's easy to look at the numbers. It's harder to know the "other" intangible things.

 

#4 - He is on a different level than Hicks and Arcia and other top prospects. He's a top prospect in the game and his skills and tools are both elite. That doesn't mean he comes up and is a star right away. Who knows, he may never be a star, but he's in a different category. 

[spinowner]

If I were TR I wouldn't set any timeline. He'll be ready when he's ready. That could be in 1 month or it could be in 1 year. As for me, I'd want to see how he does in AAA. We also need to keep in mind that someone will have to come off the 40-man when he's added.

[Linus]

Whatever the time line is, it needs to be about one thing and one thing only: what's right for Buxton's development, and nothing to do with what is going on with the Twins.

 

I would think he would have to keep playing really well for a while yet before it would even be considered.  And, I wouldn't be against him spending a little time in AAA as well.  All to make sure that when he does come up, he is prepared as best he can be and not go back.

[Seth Stohs]

Whatever the time line is, it needs to be about one thing and one thing only: what's right for Buxton's development, and nothing to do with what is going on with the Twins.

100% correct!

[Seth Stohs]

If I were TR I wouldn't set any timeline. He'll be ready when he's ready. That could be in 1 month or it could be in 1 year. As for me, I'd want to see how he does in AAA. We also need to keep in mind that someone will have to come off the 40-man when he's added.

Agree that Ryan shouldn't answer any questions of timeline... but it's fun to think of for us!

 

And... I'm thinking they could find a 40 man spot for him if necessary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If he keeps doing this, he needs to be in Minnesota around or before the All Star break.

[Craig Arko]

If he misses the Futures Game because he's with the big league club instead, I will not feel disappointed.

[tobi0040]

I think it comes down to Terry's view on his offensive development.  Because you could argue that he would be an above average defensive CF and a menace on the basepaths right now.  If he keeps hitting in AA anything like what he is doing right now, I think he is up by about July 1 at the latest.

 

On a side note, when Buxton is up it becomes pretty difficult to see how Aaron Hicks gets reps on this team.  So it was telling to me that Rosario got the call over him.

[brvama]

The roster spot is the easy part. Likely the one he's replacing. The difficult part will be knowing when he's ready for MLB baseball. My heart wants him up quickly - my head says when he's ready to succeed. Still, I believe we'll see him before Sep.

[brvama]

Also to be considered is setting up next year. IF I were the GM and Buxton looked ready to compete at the MLB level, giving him some good experience prior to Sep would/should help him and the team in2016. I have to believe that is part of the equation. .

[stringer bell]

Super 2 is about money.  the Twins have enough money to sign a couple of #3 starters for eight figures per year.  They can afford to pay Buxton extra as a Super 2.  I say that if he stays where he is or his numbers get better by Memorial Day, he is a Minnesota Twin by June 1.

[HitInAPinch]

10 games of excellent play does not make for a quick call-up.  Buxton's season average of .286 in 23 games is pretty pedestrian for an "elite prospect".  I would need to see a .300++ average and OPS .900++ [ right now at .880! ] at AA before even thinking of a promotion to MLB before August.  Better path would be a jump to AAA first.  If that works out to a .300 BA and .800+ OPS, an August call-up is warranted.  

 

Hicks. FogetAboutIt.  If Molitor says he's not ready, that's good enough for me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Super 2 is about money.  the Twins have enough money to sign a couple of #3 starters for eight figures per year.  They can afford to pay Buxton extra as a Super 2.  I say that if he stays where he is or his numbers get better by Memorial Day, he is a Minnesota Twin by June 1.

The Super 2 deadline shouldn't impact the Twins' thinking in the slightest bit. What matters with Buxton is service time because if he pans out to be the player we expect him to be, an extension should come within 12-18 months after he hits MLB. Service time affects extension negotiations a lot but Super 2 status shouldn't be much of an influence because you're going to be paying the guy so much anyway.

 

What's $5m more in a $75m contract? Who cares?

[tobi0040]

 

10 games of excellent play does not make for a quick call-up.  Buxton's season average of .286 in 23 games is pretty pedestrian for an "elite prospect".  I would need to see a .300++ average and OPS .900++ [ right now at .880! ] at AA before even thinking of a promotion to MLB before August.  Better path would be a jump to AAA first.  If that works out to a .300 BA and .800+ OPS, an August call-up is warranted.  

 

Hicks. FogetAboutIt.  If Molitor says he's not ready, that's good enough for me.

 

I am not setting hard and fast rules for his BA.  On a 162 game schedule, he is on pace for 21 HR, 21 2B, 35 3B, and 35 SB.  That is elite.

[Lenny Green]

I traveled to Chattanooga this past weekend to take in the Buxton show and it was well worth it.  I saw both the Friday and Saturday games and he put on quite a performance.  Beyond the six hits (including two doubles and two triples) it was his speed (watching him hit the extra gear rounding second on the way to third was amazing), the arm (throwing a guy out at first who strayed too far off on a relatively routine fly ball), it was just the way he carries himself.  This is a very special athlete- and we shouldn't be worried about how the early Hicks experiment failed.  Having said that, I'm hoping for a June call up for Hicks, with Buxton moving up to AAA- and then see how it plays out.

[John Kelsey]

 

I am not setting hard and fast rules for his BA.  On a 162 game schedule, he is on pace for 21 HR, 21 2B, 35 3B, and 35 SB.  That is elite.

 

Yikes. 

[spinowner]

 

On a side note, when Buxton is up it becomes pretty difficult to see how Aaron Hicks gets reps on this team.  So it was telling to me that Rosario got the call over him.

Because of Hicks' superior defense, if he can hit .250 or so I'd rather have him than Schafer or Robinson. Having Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario as my four outfielders sounds good to me. Rosario would play in left, Buxton in center, Hicks in center or right and Arcia in left or right.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

10 games of excellent play does not make for a quick call-up.  Buxton's season average of .286 in 23 games is pretty pedestrian for an "elite prospect".  I would need to see a .300++ average and OPS .900++ [ right now at .880! ] at AA before even thinking of a promotion to MLB before August.  Better path would be a jump to AAA first.  If that works out to a .300 BA and .800+ OPS, an August call-up is warranted.  

 

Hicks. FogetAboutIt.  If Molitor says he's not ready, that's good enough for me.

Batting average over a small sample size in AA means virtually nothing to me. What's important to me is the fact that Buxton is taking pitches he should take and absolutely mashing the ones over the plate (he's missing a fair amount of pitches as well but not enough to be a concern).

 

Then he gets on the basepaths and wreaks havoc. Then he goes into center and reels off highlight catches and uses his rocket arm to double up baserunners who doubted his immense talent.

 

Do I think Buxton should stay in AA for at least a few more weeks? Absolutely... But let's not understate a .880 OPS by a 21 year old coming off a lost season of baseball. The kid is killing it right now.

[tobi0040]

 

Because of Hicks' superior defense, if he can hit .250 or so I'd rather have him than Schafer or Robinson. Having Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and Rosario as my four outfielders sounds good to me. Rosario would play in left, Buxton in center, Hicks in center or right and Arcia in left or right.

 

I have not seen superior defense out of HIcks.  He should be superior to Arcia in LF or Hunter in RF, but compared to the average OF he has not lived up to expectations defensively.

[mikelink45]

Now is good.  I would have taken Hicks over Rosario, but on the other hand it this is just a two week call up for Arcia then it would be a great time to give Buxton a look at the majors and if he is ready they will not be able to send him down when the time comes.

[birddog]

Even with the mediocre CF's we are sending out at Target Field, I agree 100% with the notion that the Twins do what is best for Buxton. Don't use him as the spark needed when we are not playing well or to boost attendance. Number 1 pitchers in AA  become #5's in the majors so let him build his confidence in the minors until he is ready without a doubt. I hope it isn't going to be a money issue with Buxton, just a matter of how can we get Buxton ready to be our All-Star CF for the next 15 years.

 

And for those of you who think we need to trade Arcia, maybe the Twins hindered his progress by bringing him up too quickly. At only 23 he is finally learning to hit the way he's capable of. He will never be a great OF, but if he continues to take the outside pitch to left and turn on everything else, he is going to put up some serious numbers.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I am not setting hard and fast rules for his BA.  On a 162 game schedule, he is on pace for 21 HR, 21 2B, 35 3B, and 35 SB.  That is elite.

Projecting 10 games worth of excellent AA stats onto a 162 game MLB schedule is pure fantasy stuff.

 

Although I'd love to see a player hit 35 triples in a season!!  Highest number to day is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912....

[spinowner]

 

I have not seen superior defense out of HIcks.  He should be superior to Arcia in LF or Hunter in RF, but compared to the average OF he has not lived up to expectations defensively.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. Hicks has wheels, hands and a cannon.

[tobi0040]

 

Projecting 10 games worth of excellent AA stats onto a 162 game MLB schedule is pure fantasy stuff.

 

Although I'd love to see a player hit 35 triples in a season!!  Highest number to day is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912....

 

He has played 23 games.  If I was to project the last 10 games it would be even more ridiculous.

 

I was responding to the notion that we needed a hard and fast rule on BA in 23 games. The fact is, he has 11 extra base hits in 23 games.  That is really, really good.