Article: Between A Rick And A Hard Place

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins face a tough decision with Ricky Nolasco set to return from the disabled list by next week. The right-hander, who's been sidelined with elbow inflammation, made a rehab start in Cedar Rapids on Sunday, tossing five scoreless frames with no issues.

 

He might make one more start in the minors, but Nolasco will be back soon. And that means the Twins will have to make room for him.In theory, it shouldn't be all that difficult for a team with a 4.74 ERA from its starters (third-worst in the AL) to find room in its rotation, yet here we are.

 

Trevor May, who was called up to take Nolasco's spot and probably should have been on the team coming out of spring training, has a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio with only one homer allowed in 14 2/3 innings spanning three starts. Not only is May's continued development vital to the rotation's long-term outlook, the Twins also need him right now. He provides some things that are otherwise sorely lacking on this staff; namely, the ability to miss bats while limiting walks and long balls.

 

Tommy Milone could be a candidate for demotion coming off a rough outing on Monday, but he had a 3.37 ERA entering that start, and three of his four turns have come against the two best teams record-wise in the AL (Detroit and Kansas City).

 

Mike Pelfrey would have been the obvious choice a week ago at this time, but he has since rattled off two excellent starts, evidently turning a corner of sorts. Now that he's gotten the opportunity he wanted and made the absolute most of it, will the Twins take it away from him? Hard to envision.

 

When you look at all the names in the mix, the guy who seems to have the worst case for deserving a spot in the rotation is... Nolasco.

 

He was terrible last season and he gave up six runs over three innings in his first start this year before being shelved. It's beyond optimistic to think that a couple weeks off suddenly resolved all his issues.

 

The most just course of action would be to extend out his rehab, move him to a higher level and make him earn his way back in by proving over a string of several starts that he's healthy and effective. Rehab stints can last up to 30 days for pitchers, so the the Twins could conceivably delay a decision until it becomes clear that he's a better option than one of the five current occupants.

 

It seems apparent, however, that the Twins feel compelled to get Nolasco back in the rotation. That'll likely mean having a rather uncomfortable conversation with a starter who really hasn't done much to lose his job.

 

The next matter is what to do with the unfortunate demoted starter. If it's a move to the bullpen, then perhaps an uncomfortable conversation with Tim Stauffer is also looming.

 

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[MileHighTwinsFan]

You can't keep a healthy player on the DL to make endless "rehab starts" can you? Nolasco can't be optioned, so either you option May or option a reliever and put one of the starters in the pen.

 

I see no reason why you can't put Nolasco in the pen for now and delay a decision for a couple more rounds through the rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

Embarrassment of riches clearly.  

[drivlikejehu]

It's really not a hard decision. Milone is a junkballer with little upside. His peripherals are horrible. He should move to a long relief/spot starter role when Nolasco returns.

 

Demoting May would be inexcusable mismanagement. So that's what I expect to happen.

[h2oface]

Please tell me how Nolasco can be sent to triple A. That is thrown around so much, and it surprises me that it is offered in this article, and for vets, it is just not possible most of the time without DFAing and that whole process, which could lead to his outright release.... and salary paid by the team that releases him. So...... please tell me how Nolasco can just be sent to triple A.

 

You can put him in the pen and be an innings eater to earn his way back and wait for the injuries. Or try to trade him to the Dodgers. If they will let Scott Baker in the rotation, they might just love Ricky again. And they have the money.

 

Meyer was shelled today, and taken out of the game with only 68 pitches after 4 innings. He didn't walk anybody though, so maybe that makes him promotable?

Great headline.

[jorgenswest]

May has two more starts before Nolasco will be available. While Nolasco has been out both Pelfrey and Milone have put up starts that are better than any of Nolasco's 28 starts as a Twin (using game score).

 

He might not be one of the best 5. If he isn't, he belongs in the pen. Easy decision.

[howieramone2]

Embarrassment of riches clearly.  

Bingo!

[troyhobbs]

I'm for Nolasco to the pen as an innings eater. Blowout situations only would serve the team best

[Nick Nelson]

 

Please tell me how Nolasco can be sent to triple A. 

You're right, I didn't really phrase that correctly - I reworked it a bit in the article. I meant more that they could send him to Triple-A as part of his rehab, with the idea of easing him toward the majors and building his workload (he only threw five innings in the Cedar Rapids start). But I don't know if that'd fly.

 

 

It's really not a hard decision. Milone is a junkballer with little upside. His peripherals are horrible. He should move to a long relief/spot starter role when Nolasco returns.

 

Demoting May would be inexcusable mismanagement. So that's what I expect to happen.

Not saying you're wrong, but Milone was their top choice for the 5th starter role out of spring, and that first start was pretty big following the series in Detroit. I just don't think he's pitched badly enough to get bumped.

[joemama]

Earlier today Moli said something along the lines of "not going to announce starters for the weekend because we don't know yet". My guess is they were waiting to see how Pelf pitched. He not only answered the bell, he clanged the sucker loud and clear. So I agree with earlier posts that for at least another turn through the rotation, nobody should get demoted to open a spot for Nolasco. I hope the Twins will either give him another rehab start (or two, if that's allowed) or stick him in the pen. The flip side is that they need to give him innings to hopefully get a string of half decent outings so they can trade him.

[Ben B]

That is an 80 grade headline. 

[Thrylos]

6.26: Tommy Milone's FIP. 

Worse. Than. Tim. Stauffer's.

(and Nolasco's, of course.)

 

And a Fastball that can be wind-aided

 

Easy decision. 

 

No Rocks, no hard places.   The real decision here is who should be keeping Duensing's place warm while on the DL, Milone or Thielbar.  That's about it...

Edited April 29, 2015 by Thrylos

[KGB]

Guarantee contracts vs a player with minor league options - my bet has May heading back to the minors.  

[Platoon]

So much of this conjecture would be clearer if one knew if the Twins viewed themselves as contender possible, or strictly rebuild? So far they appear to be in the delusional contender (DC) bracket. Meaning they go the veteran route. May to Rochester, and Ricky to the rotation. But in the DC mode Pelf should go to the pen, Milone May and Ricky to the rotation, and you pick em to Rochester. I don't really like Milone, but the current Pelfrey is a apparation, and will soon vanish. In the rebuild mode, Milone goes to the pen, a pen guy goes to Rochester, and you allow Pelf and Ricky to hopefully build a resume for trade bait. And if they do, pull the pin sooner than later. On a side note, it's a sign of the level of mediocrity of this team, that there is angst over the removal of a SP on yet again one of the worst staffs in MLB.

[HitInAPinch]

Time to rethink Kyle Gibson?

 

22.1 innings, 26 hits 13R's,  12ER's  2HR's 12W's 6K's .295BA

It's possible it's due to cool weather.  A sinkerballer typically throws better as the weather gets warmer.

[DaveW]

Frankly I would just cut Nolasco.

[tobi0040]

_{Let's go the other way.}

 

_{Hughes - No.}

 

_{Gibson - Controlled young-ish with a 4.18 career FIP.  No.}

 

_{May - Controlled.  25.  Good stuff.  Flashing good control. 2.66 FIP this year.  No.}

 

_{Pelfrey or Milone - I could care less which one.} 

 

_{My money is on May though. I am going to lose it.}

Edited April 29, 2015 by tobi0040

[gil4]

 

_{Pelfrey or Milone - I could care less which one.} 

 

I never thought Pelfrey would get into my top 5, but his last two starts have been very good.  His velocity is up and the new splitter is an interesting wrinkle.  It wouldn't be the first time a pitcher added a pitch and made a major leap forward. 

 

I think the real question is does Milone go to the pen (DFA Stauffer) or does Milone still have an option year.  (I think he does.)

[Mike Sixel]

Put Nolasco or Milone in the bullpen. This isn't really that hard a choice right now.

 

this is the problem, imo, of having lots of pitchers w/o options, on a team that is not a contender.....

[JB_Iowa]

 

So much of this conjecture would be clearer if one knew if the Twins viewed themselves as contender possible, or strictly rebuild? 

 

The Twins will view themselves as a contender until after the All Star break.

[Squirrel]

I think they should send Nolasco to AAA for more rehab, build up his innings, whatever .. and give everyone else another start ... then see where we're at and make a decision. Yeah, and then we're right back where we started ... but maybe not. Buying some time. Maybe something becomes more clear. 

[JB_Iowa]

It is nice to have this problem -- maybe they can select among pitchers who are doing well instead of having to take whatever dregs are available.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Put Nolasco or Milone in the bullpen. This isn't really that hard a choice right now.

 

this is the problem, imo, of having lots of pitchers w/o options, on a team that is not a contender.....

 

I with ya, Mike!  But I have a problem moving either of them to the bullpen: 

 

Nolasco:  2nd year on a 4yr $49M contract.  I'd trade him for a loss on that one before putting him in the pen.  BTW:  Dodger scouts are looking for a replacement for McCarthy and stopped by the Twins.

 

Milone:  many people here don't like him because he's a soft-tosser.  However, he's been a successful MLB pitcher in the past and has had 1 bad start.  You just don't throw a soft-tosser like Milone into the bullpen.  Recipe for disaster.

 

My solution is to trade both of them.  The mess in the bullpen should never had happened.

[JB_Iowa]

 

My solution is to trade both of them.  The mess in the bullpen should never had happened.

 

After the last few years of taking whomever was available at AAA, this is ridiculous.  Having a little "extra" in reserve (more before than Santana debacle) is a good thing.

 

A logistical problem, perhaps but far better than the alternatives we saw last few years.

 

Or has the cliche, "you can never have too much good ptiching" gone by the wayside?

[Mike Sixel]

Trade them for what?

 

And, I don't agree. One of them should be in the bullpen for emergency starts/depth. Since Alex Meyer is showing he's not all that good ...... they need the depth.

[gunnarthor]

I think Milone ends up the odd man out when Nolasco comes back but I think Nolasco will get a few more minor league starts.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I guess the big question is:  Does Terry Ryan have a plan?

 

The signings of several starting pitchers to longish term contracts, post injuries in some cases, makes no sense.  The starting rotation should not even be under discussion at this point with the "quality" that is there.

 

Ditto:  Bullpen.  Stauffer and Boyer? 

 

If Nolasco, Stauffer and Boyer  [add Pelfrey, Santana and Milone when 1st acquired]  were to be place-holders for the next wave of Starters and Relievers from MN MiLB teams, how is this going to work out?

[DocBauer]

A temporary solution would be for Nolasco to throw at least one more rehab start. That allows everyone to make at least one more start each. Is May really OK? Will it strike midnight for Pelfrey or has he really discovered something? Was Milone's last start an aberration or the solid starts before?

 

Ideally, all is well, and a team suddenly finding themselves short a starter will come calling.

[tobi0040]

Pelfrey has changed his pitch mix and velocity quite a bit.  We should let this experiment ride and put Milone in the pen.  From fangraphs:

                      Fastball         Slider         Curve        Split
2013               72%              10%          8%              9%

2014               80%               8%           3%               8%

2015               63%               9%            6%             23%

 

Additionally, his average FB is 93.4, up from 90.8 last year.  The split is 81.7, down from 84.1.  Guessing he is throwing a different pitch altogether.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5203&position=P

[Nick Nelson]

 

Time to rethink Kyle Gibson?

 

I thought about bringing up Gibson, because that K/BB ratio is hideous, but I think he's at least 2-3 bad starts away from even being in consideration for a demotion. I think your point about cool weather affecting sinker-ballers is a fair one.