Article: What To Make Of Mike Pelfrey

[Parker Hageman]

Don’t look now but the team’s ERA leader is none other than Mike Pelfrey. Is this performance legit or should we all brace for more impact?

 

This post should come with a disclaimer in a big, bold font that screams out SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AHEAD but most people should realize that three outings is nothing to base any long-term projection on. That being said, in this small sampling Pelfrey has shown some indication that he may actually be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter.Wait. Serviceable?

 

Yes, I know 4/20 was on Monday but believe me, I am not high. There are several reasons why maybe -- just maybe -- he might be able to provide decent innings for the Twins as a starter. For example, he has shown in his first three outings that he can miss a few bats on occasion.

 

Pelfrey’s 2015 season has seen him hit double-digits in swinging strikes in two of the three starts. That’s mildly impressive since the last time he was healthy -- in 2013 -- he managed to induce double-digit swings-and-misses in just two of his 29 starts. Prior to his Tommy John surgery, he induced double-digit swing-and-misses in three of his 34 starts in 2011. Admittedly, even Pelfrey’s 9% swinging strike rate is still below the league’s average of 10% but it is a vast improvement from where it was.

 

Missing bats means he is showing opponents a new wrinkle and hitting his spots just off the plate. This was something that he did not do in either of the last two seasons. During those two seasons, while recovering from Tommy John and battling a new injury, he throttled down on his mediocre fastball and opponents pasted it all over the field. In 2013, they posted an .801 OPS against it. Last year, it was at .972.

 

The reality was that Pelfrey was unable to generate enough velocity to make the pitch effective. Over the last two years that average velocity has been 92.3 and 90.3 respectively. Now, in his first three games, he is averaging 93.4 with the fastball. Not only that, but he’s throwing it less frequently and mixing in more slow curves and introducing a split-finger that he has not used in quite some time. The change in velocity has helped keep hitters off his fastball.

 

With the Mets, Pelfrey threw the pitch as a split-finger fastball with modest velocity. He abandoned the pitch with the Twins but has since resurrected it as more of a changeup-type offering, slowing it down some in the delivery. This has been a very effective pitch for him against left-handed hitters as he’s held that side to a .162 average.

 

As you can see in this 2-2 splitter to the Royals’ Eric Hosmer and the 0-2 one to Kendrys Morales, this pitch has the potential to be a genuine swing-and-miss pitch against lefties:

 

http://i.imgur.com/IAn9wzv.gif

http://i.imgur.com/RUYN8uI.gif

 

While he’s thrown the pitch in each of his three starts, he threw it 24 times against the Royals which led to three of his strikeouts including Hosmer and Morales. Oh, and the strikeout of the right-handed hitting Paulo Orlando as well.

 

http://i.imgur.com/DOT4iSn.gif

 

Keep in mind that although he is missing more bats on the season, he is not necessarily striking more people out. Until the game in Kansas City where he used his splitter more, he really lacked a put away pitch. If he can continue to locate this pitch like he did on Wednesday night, it could become a lethal pitch.

 

All that is good for the Mike Pelfrey brand but there are also indications that this is all smoke-and-mirrors, such as the fact that Pelfrey has struggled to get ahead of hitters. His 56% first-pitch strike rate is well below the league’s average of 61% meaning that he is pitching from behind in the count more often than his fellow pitchers. From a deficit, it is more likely that bad things happen as he is forced to come into the zone.

 

What’s more is that Pelfrey has continuously flirted with disaster when he puts runners on. From the stretch he hits the zone at a much lower clip and has ended up adding more base-runners via a walk. It seems like a miracle that he has been able to work out of the situations that he has created and to have a 2.65 ERA. If he cannot stop compounding the problem, at some point those base-runners will start to come home.

 

The fact is that Pelfrey’s ceiling, based on his track record and pitch mix, is lower than most. Even with the improvements to his velocity and new pitch his upside feels like a fifth-starter in a rotation filled with fifth starters. If these improvements are sustained, the needle would move only slightly. Ultimately, he may serve better as a bullpen replacement for Blaine Boyer or Tim Stauffer.

 

With Ricky Nolasco’s rehab start pushed to Sunday in Cedar Rapids due to inclement weather, Pelfrey should be allotted at least one more start against the Detroit Tigers to build on what he did to the Royals lineup before the team needs to make a rotation decision.

 

The Twins will have an interesting decision to make when and if Nolasco is ready to rejoin the team, but there is one thing for certain, Trevor May should not be a casualty.

 

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[h2oface]

Pelfrey has been a bonus so far. I think you give him starts and hope he continues, and unless this team starts to really be competitive, you can trade him for some value if you are lucky. Nolasco? I think I would like to see anybody BUT Boyer come out of the pen for a spell. Nolasco is going to be a problem. No mater what I am afraid. 

[clutterheart]

Its almost a certainty that Pelfrey is not on next years team. So move him back to the bullpen and move on.

[PogueBear]

I wrote 238 words yesterday about Pelfrey's spike in velocity and the effectiveness of his sinker.  If the Twins get another solid start from Pelfrey this week before Nolasco inevitably returns to the rotation, I hope TR gets on the horn and sees if he can get anything via trade.  Buy low, sell high!! 

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/522/entry-6468-the-return-of-mike-pelfreys-arm/ 

[Teflon]

The Twins advanced metrics team likes that Pelfrey nearly always has a low earned runs total per hour pitched. 

[mdawg888]

I've hated Pelfrey so much over the last couple of years. Hopefully this continues (I don't think it will).

[Blake]

The new pitching coach is encouraging pitchers to find better secondary offerings from what Bert said. A couple of the split-fingers Pelfrey threw were things of beauty. The bottom fell out of them and made hitters look foolish. 

 

Notice also that Pelfrey came hard inside. Yes, he hit a couple of batters, but, I cannot believe a free base is worth taking a 90 mph baseball off any part of the anatomy. 

 

Tommy Millone is also pitching hard inside.

 

Perhaps the change in pitching philosophy has really helped Mr. Pelfrey?

[Platoon]

If he starts throwing a lot of high velocity splitters, his arm is a disaster waiting to happen.maybe the Twins, in this situation, should let that be some other teams problem?

[gil4]

With Ricky Nolasco’s rehab start pushed to Sunday in Cedar Rapids due to inclement weather, Pelfrey should be allotted at least one more start...

It seems like I read that Nolasco would be making two rehab starts. Did anyone else see that or am I imagining things?

[HitInAPinch]

I don't think it's really about talent.  Pelfrey has talent.  It's about injuries.  Give him several more starts.  If he's effective, trade him.  Trade now, trade fast, trade often.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I am pleased to see some payoff for Pelfrey, but I think the article gets it right.  He is highly susceptible to the big inning.  He seems to struggle in runners on base situations, particularly in the critical 5th and 6th inning when you need a starter to get through the top half of the lineup a third time.  

 

Given this tendency and the new found splitter, which can put undo stress on his arm, I still like him as a late inning reliever.  This team desperately needs help there.   

 

I know Pelfrey does not want that role and would rather be traded somewhere where he can start, but I think it is important for the Twins to give him a real chance to help the club from the Pen, which solves two problems for the team - finding a spot for Nolasco and helping the beleaguered bull pen. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Its almost a certainty that Pelfrey is not on next years team. So move him back to the bullpen and move on.

 

10000000x this. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Its almost a certainty that Pelfrey is not on next years team. So move him back to the bullpen and move on.

While I agree that it's probably for the best if he ends up there at some point in the season, the Twins would be foolish to move their best starter (stifling laughter) out of the rotation while he's on his game.

[Halsey Hall]

I've always been in Pelfrey's corner.  His main problem was keeping away from the big inning.  When he can do that, he's fine.  I know some don't like how slow he works, but you should see me work.  He'd win 12-14 games if in the rotation all year, and that's better than some we have now. 

 

I've got no confidence in Nolasco, none. 

[Blake]

Another thing to note about Pelfrey's last start: He started getting more strikes later in the game, which allowed Pelfrey to pitch through the seventh.

 

And, no matter what, this is not the Royals team we grew up with. The current version of the Royals is one of the best teams in baseball.

[Dantes929]

I would have been quite happy if it had turned out to be a Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May and Meyer rotation but give credit where it is due.   Pelfrey shut out a very hot KC team.   I love that he is throwing his fastball harder but less often.     Most pitcher get a couple extra ticks on their fastball they will throw it more often so props to Pelfrey for using it more effectively.   I always thought he had at least as much stuff as Nolasco so I am not anxious to see Nolasco back at all.    As well as Pelfrey pitched I thought Milone might have been even better the night beore..   Unfortunately, he appeared to be the victim f a very slightly shrunken strike zone and very patient KC hitters.    Even with that he did ok.  

[COtwin]

You are all wrong.  Don't trade him!  Sign him to a new 4 year contract.  I bet he would sign for 6-7 mill a year.  Strike while the iron is hot.

 

 

 

[birddog]

Pelfrey is not an option beyond this year, but if he gives us a chance to win, run him out there as a starter until he reverts back to his ways. He appears to have decent movement on his pitches and missing a few bats which is novel in Twindom. Nolasco should go to the pen when healthy even though he is (unfortunately) a part of the future, since he has not proven a thing as a starter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While I agree that it's probably for the best if he ends up there at some point in the season, the Twins would be foolish to move their best starter (stifling laughter) out of the rotation while he's on his game.

But what do you do when Nolasco comes back, then?  Send May down?  Gibson?

[Squirrel]

 

But what do you do when Nolasco comes back, then?  Send May down?  Gibson?

This is the quandary. Who goes down then? Or to the pen?

[Danchat]

 

This is the quandary. Who goes down then? Or to the pen?

Put Pelfrey in the pen. Now that he's healthy and throwing 93 MPH, he can be an effective bullpen arm. I already trust him more than Boyer, Stauffer, and Thielbar right now. We desperately need some reliable arms in the pen, and I think Pelfrey can do it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But what do you do when Nolasco comes back, then?  Send May down?  Gibson?

I put Ricky on a plane to Los Angeles and let him hang out on Sunset Blvd until someone flounders enough to deserve a demotion.

 

Snark aside, I postpone the decision for as long as humanly possible by letting Nolasco rehab the max number of days.

[Sam Morley]

I think you have to go with the hot hand/what have you done for me lately philosophy here. Normally, I think that kind of approach is not very good. People are more successful when they aren't looking over their shoulder. I think as a manager, you want to be able to give your players some assurance, but the Twins' rotation has been such a disaster over the past several seasons- it feels like a frozen computer and you've been pressing ctrl alt del for an hour and it's not working and now it's just time to start pounding the key board with both hands and see what happens next. As far as I can see, nobody on the entire staff besides Perkins and Hughes has really earned their job and cemented it. Gibson and May are younger than the other guys, so they have more upside and that makes them part of the future... maybe. We have to let them pitch to find out, so maybe they have a longer leash. But if they stink it up, I don't think they have so much upside that the hot hand shouldn't move them to the back of the line. Milone, meh; is anybody really that stoked about Milone? Shorter leash for him. Happens to be one of the hot hands now- great. 

 

Pelfry just threw seven scoreless against the best team in the division and basically single handedly saved the team from a second division rival sweep. As people have said, the velocity is good. As Parker shared in the GIFs of the split-change, it is total filth. Pelfry has been, for me, one the most prodigiously groan inducing Twins players of all-time, but that pitch has very quickly turned my groan into an ooooh/ahhhh. Sickness. Now, I'm not saying his leash is any longer than anyone else's, but he absolutely has to keep starting without question at least until his next clunker... Especially when the guy we're talking about at the back of the line is Ricky Nolasco! The Twins have shown in this young season that they are no lost cause. They have lost a couple series, and won a couple series. They should've won this last series. If it were me running the show, there's no way Ricky is anywhere near a major league pitching mound until the team is totally buried and like ten or fifteen games under 500. Him starting is a sign to me the manager is going, "well jeepers, I don't know what else to do, and we're paying this guy."

 

Anyway, thesis statement: the guys who have pitched well get to keep pitching; the guys who haven't might have to take a seat- regardless of their paycheck size, their relative youth/upside, or their 1989 Toyota Corolla fastball.

 

PS: It seems to me that if Pelfry pitches similarly well over the next, say, two months, the potential trade returns could be more valuable to the Twins' long term plans than either Gibson or May... which then possibly makes Pelfry, at the moment, more valuable to the Twins' long term plans than either Gibson or May. (I would see the return ceiling for Pelfry- in the event he continues to pitch well- being low level plus starter type).

[Buford_T_Justice]

I would send Gibson down long enough to build up trade interest in Pelfrey or Milone. Then I would trade the other of those 2 when Santana returns. If Nolasco is anywhere close to normal and has decent numbers, I would attempt to trade him off to make room for Meyer.

 

Or that in whatever order as long as the September rotation is Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Meyer.

 

Then again, what the hell do I know? I work in insurance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

PS: It seems to me that if Pelfry pitches similarly well over the next, say, two months, the potential trade returns could be more valuable to the Twins' long term plans than either Gibson or May... which then possibly makes Pelfry, at the moment, more valuable to the Twins' long term plans than either Gibson or May. (I would see the return ceiling for Pelfry- in the event he continues to pitch well- being low level plus starter type).

What exactly does "low level plus starter type" return mean?  It sounds high for a non-elite rental player.  Bud Norris got a pair of interesting prospects and a competitive balance pick at the deadline two years ago, but he was 28 years old at the time and controlled for two seasons beyond.

 

In terms of contract, age, control, and even performance, Pelfrey is probably a lot closer to Correia, who we had to give away last August despite 9 months of healthy average starting pitching out of his previous 10.

 

Pelfrey's value to this team is almost entirely in his present-season performance.

[kellyvance]

There are a LOT of guys in A and AA that can throw 93 mph. What Pelfrey is going through reminds me of Jesse Crain. Crain had a decent fastball, but it went straight and got hit. Once he discovered the change and slider were working, his performance improved drastically. Same with Pelfrey. His sinker was occcasionally awesome against KC. But putting a guy who relies on a sinker in a situation with guys on can be risky. Pitches in the dirt are more likel to be passed balls or wild pitches. With runners on, that is bad. 

 

The Twins took a big chance on Mike, and they obviously want to get something in return, so I say let him pitch his way out of the rotation now. If his good starts continue, so much the better. Meanwhile, Milone is what he is. At least he is consistent. Ricky looks like a failed experiment. He did show up in better shape this year and that is a positive. But he is damaged goods and nobody wants him in a trade. As for those who say trade Pelfrey as soon as you can.... good luck with that. Teams looking for a fifth starter can get one practically anywhere without giving up much in return. Case in point:  Marquis is stiil pitching. 

 

Pelfrey and Nolasco are like that beater pickup you want to sell, but nobody will give you more than $1500. For that money you might as well just keep it for a spare.

[Mike Sixel]

Not if you are rebuilding your team......the young guys should be up, taking their lumps ..... not guys that won't be on the roster next year (once you have a young guy ready).

 

that is, sending down May or Gibson does NOTHING to help 2016 and beyond, it gives you no MLB performance data to make decisions upon. Nothing. When Nolasco comes back, I hope neither May nor Gibson goes down, because that would indicate, to me, a continued unwillingness to commit to the rebuild.

[stringer bell]

Still a lot of base runners on in his last start.  Also, while the sinker is pretty effective in getting ground balls, he doesn't put anybody away with it.  He's a 30-something still trying to find secondary pitches.  I would say the odds are pretty long that he will succeed. 

 

That said, I wasn't totally opposed to Pelf signing the two-year deal and thought he might have a decent year last year.  He's got the velocity and he really works hard.  Maybe, just maybe, he will figure it out was a breaking ball and the splitter.  I wish him well and certainly would like to see him get another few starts.

[Dantes929]

 

Not if you are rebuilding your team......the young guys should be up, taking their lumps ..... not guys that won't be on the roster next year (once you have a young guy ready).

 

that is, sending down May or Gibson does NOTHING to help 2016 and beyond, it gives you no MLB performance data to make decisions upon. Nothing. When Nolasco comes back, I hope neither May nor Gibson goes down, because that would indicate, to me, a continued unwillingness to commit to the rebuild.

We may be putting the cart before the horse here.   If Nolasco has two more rehab starts then that probably means everyone else gets two more starts before then as well.   What are the odds we get 8 quality starts in a row out of Milone, Pelfrey, May and Gibson.    I absolutely agree about May and Gibson and wonder why anyone is down on Gibson.     What I don't understand is any love of Nolasco.   He has done nothing for us and does not really have such a great track record before coming here.   If the rotation is still pitching well then you just leave it alone until there is an opening.

[Jham]

Pelfrey really did not pitch all that well did he?  He got into the same number of jams as usual, but then balls were hit at fielders instead of between them?  If  the double plays were just FC, wouldn't he have given up a good 3 or 4 runs and we would have probably lost?  I've never been a big Pelf fan, but results aside, I need to see a bit more.  I was fooled by Deduno last year.  Luck is luck.  Don't get it confused with stuff.

 

At the same time, Pelfrey owes us, and Nolasco may be worse yet.  Maybe Pelf really has turned a corner.  If that's the case, I throw him 120 pitches every 3rd day until the wheels fall off or his arm falls off, whichever comes first.  My bet is on the wheels, because I'm still not convinced he's even average.