Article: How Tall Is Too Tall? How Old Is Too Old? (Part 2)

[John Bonnes]

Last week, amid concerns that 25-year-old Twins pitching prospect Alex Meyer is too old to still be in the minors, I researched all major league starting pitchers since 1980 who were within an inch of Meyer's towering 6' 9" frame. Turns out their average debut age was 25 years old.

 

I also found something I didn't expect.There weren't a lot of pitchers with high strikeout numbers. That surprised me because when one thinks of tall pitchers, one focuses on the best tall pitcher: Randy Johnson, who ranks second all-time in strikeouts. The pitchers were:

 

Mike Smithson (6’ 8”), who debuted in 1982 as a 27-year-old,

Randy Johnson (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1988 as a 24-year-old,

Eric Hillman (6’ 10”), who debuted in 1992 as a 26-year-old,

Mark Hendrickson (6’ 9”), who debuted in 2002 as a 28-year-old,

Chris Young (6' 10"), who debuted in 2004 as a 25-year-old,

Chris Volstad (6' 8"), who debuted in 2008 as a 21-year-old,

Jeff Niemann (6' 9"), who debuted in 2008 as a 25-year-old and

Doug Fister (6' 8"), who debuted in 2014 as a 25-year-old.

 

Looking at their minor league records, Smithson, Hendrickson, Volstad and Hillman all had very mediocre strikeout rates, with the highest at 6.2. Fister’s was only 6.70, though he might end up being the second most valuable starting pitcher on this list. He was fairly effective when he debuted at 25 years old, but it wasn’t until he was traded to Detroit as a 27-year-old that he ratcheted up his control and started posting sub-4.00 ERAs.

 

Meyer, on the other hand, has a 10.4 K/9 in his minor league career. That’s higher than even Randy Johnson had in the minors. The only other pitchers with a rate above mediocre are Chris Young (7.4 K/9) and Jeff Niemann (8.9 K/9). Young debuted as a 25-year-old, was decent as a 26-year-old, and looked like a future star as a 27-year-old. But his career was derailed shortly thereafter by multiple injuries and three surgeries, including facial reconstruction from a hit to the face and two independent shoulder surgeries. He is a great “what if?” (Thanks to Thrylos for helping research this.)

 

But Meyer, who has been shut down each season due to a sore shoulder, reminds me most of Niemann. Niemann was drafted fourth overall and, as the Rays then were apt to do, signed to a major league contract. That’s significant because that meant he was on the 40-man roster and his three option years were needed as he worked his way through the minors.

 

Niemann posted some outstanding numbers in the minors, but also suffered from shoulder and groin injuries, including an offseason shoulder surgery. He made a brief appearance in the majors in 2008 but was promoted to the club for good in 2009 as a 26-year-old, because he was out of options.

 

He had a good rookie year and started well the next year, but faded badly as the season went on due to shoulder and back problems. The next two years were decent, but both were marred by injuries; he made just 31 starts over the two seasons. In his fifth year, he was battling for a job in spring training as a 30-year-old in the Rays rotation when they discovered that he had to undergo shoulder surgery. He hasn’t pitched in the minors or majors since.

 

So to recap, Niemann was "rushed" to The Bigs as a 26-year-old. His career lasted a little over four years. He started less than 100 games. His overall record was 40-26 with a 4.08 ERA.

 

Meyer and the Twins have a luxury that Niemann and the Rays did not; Meyer's demotion this year will only use the first of his three options. He won't need to be promoted for good until he is 28 years old. And as for caring for his shoulder, it's easier to limit and care for a pitcher who is out of he glare of the bright lights of The Show.

 

It could also be, like Johnson, he's going to need some additional time to work through his control issues. Meyer posted a 4.4 BB/9 rate in Rochester last year, which is about 50% worse than average in the majors. At the beginning of this year, that rate is much worse, with a walk rate over 8 per nine innings. And, of course, it's likely to get worse in the majors. But he has three more years to work through those issues in Rochester if he needs them, without starting his service time clock.

 

It may be that delaying his debut in the majors hurts his prospect ranking, but it's not clear that it hurts his long-term development. A look at other tall pitchers reveal that they often need extra time to harness their control and need to be cautious about with their workload to avoid injuries. Those areas should be the focus, not their age.

 

if you would like to know more details about how this list of pitchers was assembled, see Part 1 of this story. Thanks to Thrylos, Hosken Bombo Disco, Jokin, 70charger & Kevin for their assistance in researching this study.

 

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[mdawg888]

Jack Morris said on KFAN the other day that legendary scout Mel Didier said that if a prospect isn't in the big leagues by the time he's 24(5?), he isn't a real prospect. However, I think with 'abnormally tall pitching prospect', that logic goes out the window. 

[nytwinsfan]

Great article John. Thanks for doing all the research.

[HitInAPinch]

It isn't that tall pitchers can't throw harder, it's that they don't.  And that's the part I don't understand.  It's all about the mechanics.  Johnson and JR Richards, just like average size pitchers like Ryan and Seaver, threw hard using leverage. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

It isn't that tall pitchers can't throw harder, it's that they don't.  And that's the part I don't understand.  It's all about the mechanics.  Johnson and JR Richards, just like average size pitchers like Ryan and Seaver, threw hard using leverage. 

Who is the resident Twins Daily physicist?

[Mike Sixel]

Doesn't this kind of beg the question.....why trade for a tall pitcher in the first place, if they almost never work out?

 

Now, part of that is that tall people don't usually pitch.....or even play baseball, so the sample is small.....but still.

[Thrylos]

 

Jack Morris said on KFAN the other day that legendary scout Mel Didier said that if a prospect isn't in the big leagues by the time he's 24(5?), he isn't a real prospect. However, I think with 'abnormally tall pitching prospect', that logic goes out the window. 

 

Didier's statement became obsolete with  the CBA signed after the strike of '81.

 

IIRC, Boggs, Fisk, O. Smith and a few other HOFers started their MLB careers at 24 or so.

[sane]

Doesn't this kind of beg the question.....why trade for a tall pitcher in the first place, if they almost never work out?

 

Because it's easier shorten a too-tall pitcher, than to lengthen a too-short pitcher. Just like pants.

[Thrylos]

 

Because it's easier shorten a too-tall pitcher, than to lengthen a too-short pitcher. Just like pants.

 

Indeed.  Procrustes thought so too

 

http://www.mythweb.com/today/media/procrustes07.gif

[ashbury]

Indeed.  Procrustes thought so too

Twins Daily: Come for the baseball, stay for the Procrustean one-size-fits-all references.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Who is the resident Twins Daily physicist?

 TD posted info today the Ron Gardenhire has hired an agent.  He could be the guy! 

[joshawaggie]

Doug Fister debuted in 2009, not last year.