Was This A Balk?

[jimmer]

 

One question to the umpires who have commented. Is it a balk if he does that same play towards 1st, 2nd or 3rd? 

 

If yes, then why is home any different?

Yes, because once you start the windup, you can't throw to 1st, 2nd or 3rd.  You can only throw home. The reason pitchers use the stretch with runners on is because they can deliver the ball faster to home plate to help get any potential base stealers and because pickoff attempts are easier made from that position.

 

And if you throw over to a base from the stretch, it can be fast or slow, rushed or deliberate. 

[Secondary User]

For those who are interested in the decision to have him run or not.  Using some expected runs tables, here's how it breaks down:

 

Stealing Home - Attempting to steal home, if you give the player a 50% chance to succeed (I believe Molitor had a quote today that he would have taken the 50/50 shot), the big question then comes down to what do the other two runners decide to do.  Dozier and Mauer didn't advance on the play, (though I think they should have), if Hunter is successful, you would have 1st and 2nd with 2 outs and Vargas still up. Here's how it simplifies in formula form:

 

= (Chance of Success) * (Expected runs scored) + (Chance of Failure) * (Expected runs after failure)

= 0.5 * (Hunter's Run + Expected runs after success) + 0.5 * 0

= 0.5 * (1 + 0.44) + 0

= 0.72

 

If the runners advance, the 0.44 changes to somewhere between 0.58 and 0.61 depending on which chart you use, and your total expected runs becomes around 0.79

 

Not stealing:

The expected runs for bases loaded and 2 outs is 0.76

 

Now, these numbers are based on historical data, and considering we're in a pitcher heavy era, the expect numbers for the non stealing options is probably a little high, making stealing a little more favorable.  Then again, despite Vargas' struggles early on, he does have a power profile that could bring those numbers up a bit.

 

In all honesty, from a statistical aspect, the decision was basically a wash

[jimmer]

Does an almost 40 year old slow player have a 50-50 chance? -)

 

'If the runners advance, the 0.44 changes to somewhere between 0.58 and 0.61 depending on which chart you use, and your total expected runs becomes around 0.79'

 

Yeah, but if they advance and Hunter is out #3, would the number really go up to .79 because they're just going to walk to the dugout at that point. :-)

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

Yes, because once you start the windup, you can't throw to 1st, 2nd or 3rd.  You can only throw home. 

 

I'm sorry. I should've specified that I meant the pitcher instead of starting his windup, started their move towards whatever base the pick-off attempt was going to. 

 

The main thing I'm asking about is the fact that he never steps until after he throws.

[Secondary User]

 

Does an almost 40 year old slow player have a 50-50 chance? -)

 

He was darn close even with a questionable motion to the plate, so I'd say 50-50 isn't far off.

 

 

 

'If the runners advance, the 0.44 changes to somewhere between 0.58 and 0.61 depending on which chart you use, and your total expected runs becomes around 0.79'

 

Yeah, but if they advance and Hunter is out #3, would the number really go up to .79 because they're just going to walk to the dugout at that point. :-)

 

If the runners choose to advance and Hunter gets thrown out, that scenario is covered in the second half of the equation where you multiply .5*0 because there's a 50% chance you'll expect zero runs because he gets thrown out

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

Does an almost 40 year old slow player have a 50-50 chance? -)

 

It took a great play to get him out and he could've (or should've) had a bigger lead. I don't know if they ever showed how far the 3rd baseman was from 3rd though. Molitor did say he thought Torii could've had a bigger lead as well.

 

Speed isn't the only factor in stealing bases. Maybe the biggest factor but not the only factor. The pitcher was looking down when he started his windup. 

[jimmer]

 

I'm sorry. I should've specified that I meant the pitcher instead of starting his windup, started their move towards whatever base the pick-off attempt was going to. 

 

The main thing I'm asking about is the fact that he never steps until after he throws.

If he was set in the windup and then stepped back off the rubber and motioned towards 2nd or 3rd, he wouldn't even have to throw the ball. There's no rule that I know of that specifies how he'd have to throw there.

 

There's also teh infamous fake throw to 3rd to throw to 1st base trick.  In that case, if you first fake to 3B, not only do you not have to throw to 3B, when you turn to throw to 1B, you don't have to throw it then either.

[jimmer]

 

It took a great play to get him out and he could've (or should've) had a bigger lead. I don't know if they ever showed how far the 3rd baseman was from 3rd though. Molitor did say he thought Torii could've had a bigger lead as well.

 

Speed isn't the only factor in stealing bases. Maybe the biggest factor but not the only factor. The pitcher was looking down when he started his windup. 

I was just playing, really.

[jimmer]

 

He was darn close even with a questionable motion to the plate, so I'd say 50-50 isn't far off.

 

 

 

If the runners choose to advance and Hunter gets thrown out, that scenario is covered in the second half of the equation where you multiply .5*0 because there's a 50% chance you'll expect zero runs because he gets thrown out

yeah, I was just fooling around.  Sorry.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

that heck-bent thing wasn't addressed to you, so you know.

Ok. Thanks. I didn't know.

 

I think the score dictated the move a little but the thing I like most about it, and I did react negatively at first, is they are looking to take advantage of anything or anywhere they see an advantage. The pitcher wasn't paying attention to Torii and both he and Molitor noticed it so they see there might be a chance to make a play, put it on and it didn't work out. I like that Molly is confident in his players. It makes for more fun watching the games from now on. 

[Secondary User]

yeah, I was just fooling around. Sorry.

No worries. My bad

[jimmer]

 

No worries. My bad

Nah, my bad.  I should have been more clear I was messing around. 

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

If he was set in the windup and then stepped back off the rubber and motioned towards 2nd or 3rd, he wouldn't even have to throw the ball. There's no rule that I know of that specifies how he'd have to throw there.

 

There's also teh infamous fake throw to 3rd to throw to 1st base trick.  In that case, if you first fake to 3B, not only do you not have to throw to 3B, when you turn to throw to 1B, you don't have to throw it then either.

Ok. Thanks.

 

I thought they took out or were taking out the fake to 3rd move.

[jimmer]

 

Ok. Thanks.

 

I thought they took out or were taking out the fake to 3rd move.

I haven't heard that, but maybe?

 

edit: 

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/sports/baseball/baseball-rule-change-eliminates-a-fake-pickoff-by-pitcher.html

 

Gets ride of the fake to 3rd to throw to 1st move. So that little trick play, specifically, is gone.  So when I wrote 'There's also the infamous fake throw to 3rd to throw to 1st base trick.  In that case, if you first fake to 3B, not only do you not have to throw to 3B, when you turn to throw to 1B, you don't have to throw it then either.'

 

That was wrong.

 

But you can still fake to 3B or 2B.

 

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

I was just playing, really.

Come on, Blue! That was a ball! Haha!

[jimmer]

 

Come on, Blue! That was a ball! Haha!

When I was in the military and stationed overseas, people were always calling me 'Blue' off duty (and sometimes on duty if they knew me well and we were alone) cause I umpired a lot.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

When I was in the military and stationed overseas, people were always calling me 'Blue' off duty (and sometimes on duty if they knew me well and we were alone) cause I umpired a lot.

But, of course! Well, thanks for the explanations, the discussion and THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICE!!!

[jimmer]

 

But, of course! Well, thanks for the explanations, the discussion and THANKS FOR YOUR SERVICE!!!

I also enjoyed the chat, and thanks :-)

[SweetOne69]

 

 

The main thing I'm asking about is the fact that he never steps until after he throws.

 

From what I see in the video Guthrie is stepping while in the process of throwing just like he would've on a normal pitch.  It is a simultaneous action.  He definitely is not throwing then stepping.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

From what I see in the video Guthrie is stepping while in the process of throwing just like he would've on a normal pitch.  It is a simultaneous action.  He definitely is not throwing then stepping.

His foot doesn't hit the ground until after he throws the ball though. See the picture on my post here - http://twinsdaily.com/blog/34/entry-6470-twinstakes-balking-at-controversy-talk-the-balk/

 

The view from behind the mound isn't as good as the view from home plate. I'll see if I can find that video or a picture.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

From what I see in the video Guthrie is stepping while in the process of throwing just like he would've on a normal pitch.  It is a simultaneous action.  He definitely is not throwing then stepping.

 

Look at this video. At the end it has the replay from behind home plate - http://foxs.pt/1bmOo3G

[sane]

 

One question, is how does the "without alteration or interruption" rule apply to the slide step?  That is clearly a sizeable alteration to the delivery, though not on this scale.

Slide step is not a windup maneuver, and the rule says "during the windup a pitcher is not allowed to deceive the batter with "alteration" of his pitch". Slide step is done from the stretch position.

[formerly33]

 

They can absolutely do that....if it is their natural pitching motion.  They use the phrase "his natural pitching motion" several times, and if that's how he does it, then it's not a balk.  But if it's an alteration to serve a purpose, it gets more gray area

If Mike Pelfrey threw a knuckleball, would that be a balk because it's not his natural pitching motion?

[2wins87]

 

For those who are interested in the decision to have him run or not.  Using some expected runs tables, here's how it breaks down:

 

Stealing Home - Attempting to steal home, if you give the player a 50% chance to succeed (I believe Molitor had a quote today that he would have taken the 50/50 shot), the big question then comes down to what do the other two runners decide to do.  Dozier and Mauer didn't advance on the play, (though I think they should have), if Hunter is successful, you would have 1st and 2nd with 2 outs and Vargas still up. Here's how it simplifies in formula form:

 

= (Chance of Success) * (Expected runs scored) + (Chance of Failure) * (Expected runs after failure)

= 0.5 * (Hunter's Run + Expected runs after success) + 0.5 * 0

= 0.5 * (1 + 0.44) + 0

= 0.72

 

If the runners advance, the 0.44 changes to somewhere between 0.58 and 0.61 depending on which chart you use, and your total expected runs becomes around 0.79

 

Not stealing:

The expected runs for bases loaded and 2 outs is 0.76

 

Now, these numbers are based on historical data, and considering we're in a pitcher heavy era, the expect numbers for the non stealing options is probably a little high, making stealing a little more favorable.  Then again, despite Vargas' struggles early on, he does have a power profile that could bring those numbers up a bit.

 

In all honesty, from a statistical aspect, the decision was basically a wash

 

Using the run expectancy table from last year: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1657937

 

Hunter would have to be safe 46% of the time to break even.  If the runners were clued in that he might go they would advance easily and the break-even percentage drops to 42%.

 

This is really not a stupid play statistically, with the added benefit of being really exciting.  In general stealing home with two outs doesn't require a very high success rate to be worth it.  A steal of home with only a runner on third and two outs only needed to succeed 30% of the time to be worth it based on last years run environment.

 

Obviously stealing home requires specific circumstances to pull off, but if those circumstances arise it's actually a pretty smart play.

 

 

[Secondary User]

 

If Mike Pelfrey threw a knuckleball, would that be a balk because it's not his natural pitching motion?

 

That is a different pitch, not a different delivery

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Speeding up one's delivery would certainly seem to be a type of alteration. But I think the pitcher gets the benefit of the doubt since the balk rule is more about the base runners. I think Guthrie played it pretty good, and that the base runner (who shall remain unnamed) probably thought the play was closer than it really was. 

 

Any umpire on the field can call a balk, correct? I agree it would be nice to see something in print about how the umpires ruled on it. 

 

[USAFChief]

Could a case be made that Perez left the catcher's box before the pitcher delivered the ball?

[formerly33]

 

Could a case be made that Perez left the catcher's box before the pitcher delivered the ball?

I think that's the most valid point so far.

[TwinsCD]

 

Could a case be made that Perez left the catcher's box before the pitcher delivered the ball?

 

I thought about that too when I first saw the video because I thought the subject was referring to a catcher's balk (shows you how much I wasn't paying attention to the pitcher at first blush) but Perez keeps his foot in the catcher's box up until the ball is thrown.  If he had jumped out with both feet then we'd have a case for that.

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

 

I thought about that too when I first saw the video because I thought the subject was referring to a catcher's balk (shows you how much I wasn't paying attention to the pitcher at first blush) but Perez keeps his foot in the catcher's box up until the ball is thrown.  If he had jumped out with both feet then we'd have a case for that.

 

Right, the two rules that speak to that are (1) catcher has to have at least one foot in the box (he did)* and (2) catchers are not allowed to step in front of or on home plate without possession of the ball (Perez stayed back).

 

 

*There was an Ask the Umpire with Tim McClelland who was asked about that rule and he said:

 

McClelland: It is a balk if the catcher doesn't stay in the catcher's box until the pitcher delivers the ball. If he were to step out of the catcher's box - the little box behind home plate - before the pitcher delivers the ball it would be called a catcher's balk. The runners would advance.

As a matter of fact, I have never seen it called, it's one of those things you just kind of let slide. But it is in the rule book, we haven't updated the rule book in a long time. If it was called recently, it would be by an umpire taking the rule book to the letter of the law and sometimes we have to kind of overlook some things to make the game run smoother.

 

 

I feel like a lot of balk rules operate that way. The rules are there but they are never enforced.