Article: Twins To Let Santana Stick It Out At Short

[Parker Hageman]

There’s no hiding the fact that Danny Santana’s first few weeks as the Twins starting shortstop have been rough.

 

ESPN’s stats guru Mark Simon tweeted out earlier this week that at -6, Santana’s defensive runs saved total was the worst metric among all qualified defenders. The fact is any defensive metric at this sampling size is not going to be able to give an accurate portrayal of a player’s true performance. After all, by another defensive rating system, total zone, Santana is an above average defender at short (+1). But wait, revised zone rating says he’s one of the worst at converting balls into outs so far this year.Do you see why it is hard to convince average fans to buy into the validity of defensive metrics?

 

Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, whose defense has been considered an aspect of his game that doesn’t receive enough attention, doesn’t believe that those metrics -- good or bad -- tell the entire story of a player. “The big thing for me is that I know someone’s a good defensive player,” said the eye test advocate.

 

Dozier is not alone. Most inside the game will tell you that they can say whether or not a player can play defense based on observations. For Dozier, his main criticism of the defensive metrics is the plays that are not included in the numbers.

 

“As far as sabermetrics, it is mindboggling to me sometimes when I see that around the league when someone is the best fielder in the game and everyone knows he’s the best and he covers the most ground and always throws to the right bases,” Dozier said. “And some of those things don’t get factored into the sabermetrical stat that you are given at the end of the year.”

 

Although “sabermetrical” is a made-up word derived from another made-up word, Dozier is right -- there are things that players can do defensively that will not show up in the UZRs or plus/minuses and may not give an wholly accurate representation of a player’s defense. In Santana’s case, that includes the recent relay play on Monday in which he threw the Royals’ Salvador Perez out from shallow center field.

 

http://i.imgur.com/vdA1dol.gif

 

Those intangible-type plays -- a play that Santana is able to convert because he is blessed with a legit GoldenEye N64 rocket launcher -- should be added to any discussion about his defensive capabilities. However when it comes to making the everyday plays a shortstop should make Santana has performed at a deficit this year. Revised zone rating, a metric based on video scouting that adds batted ball speed and trajectory, is straightforward in the sense that it categorizes if it was hit within a shortstop’s zone and whether or not the play was converted into an out. Simple. Thanks to his contact-oriented pitching staff, Santana has had 39 balls in his zone so far this year but he has only converted 27 (.692 RZR) into outs. That’s 25th of 30 shortstops.

 

The Twins want you to take that early season production with a grain because they are convinced he is talented enough to be an everyday major league shortstop.

 

“He can run, he can throw, he’s got range, he’s athletic, he can make the play in the hole,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan offered in regards to Santana’s ability to play shortstop. “It’s just a matter consistency, like a lot of our young players. He has all the tools to be a very quality-oriented shortstop.”

 

Quality has been lacking in the season’s opening month both with the glove and at the plate.

 

As Nick Nelson pointed out on Monday, part of that early season shakiness may be due to inexperience or rust from missing a year of development at the position. There may also be some issues on the field that he is carrying over from his at-bats.

 

After eyebrow-raising production in his first season at the plate, the early returns in his sophomore season have been disappointing. As a leadoff hitter who is expected to set the table for the heart of the order, Santana has failed to get on base at even a modest clip and he has not drawn a walk in 45 plate appearances. What’s more is that his zone comprehension, while lacking to begin with, has taken severe steps backward. According to Fangraphs.com, Santana’s 52.4% out-of-zone swinging% is the highest among all qualified hitters. As a top-of-the-order presence, he needs to be able to command that zone at a much better clip.

 

Does that poor performance with the bat get carried over to the field with him? It seems that he could be pressing in the infield. While blessed with the strong arm, he has also demonstrated that it can potentially get him into trouble, just like this throw to middle infield mate Dozier that sent him contorting in order to glove the ball.

 

http://i.imgur.com/AcKw56X.gif

 

Those types of plays make managers squeamish. If he continues to make these unforced errors and misplays will the Twins be quick to swap him with Eduardo Escobar who performed well in his service at short last year?

 

“He’s basically a rookie coming up here at shortstop now,” said Ryan. “It’s not like he’s been out there four or five years. But we’ll probably have a little leniency with him because he hasn’t been up here playing shortstop on an everyday basis yet.”

 

For the time being, the Twins will continue to roll with Santana at shortstop -- at least until either he cannot be trusted in the field or his bat never recovers from the early season slump. That being said, Ryan thinks Santana will come around and begin to impress with his raw tools.

 

“He should make some of those plays or all of those plays that are routine, of course, but he’s capable of making some of those fantastic plays too.”

 

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[ThejacKmp]

I get the point that the author is making but that throw from centerfield is not very impressive.  The runner was out by 15 feet and Santana's tailing throw almost took the catcher too far off to make the play - it was way closer than it needed to be.

[Thegrin]

Since Molitor has decided to make Santana his SS, he needs to give him more time to smooth out his defensive lapses. However, he should be removed from the leadoff spot. Let Dozier lead off and bat Plouffe 4th.  The Twins could live with that for a while. 

[Mike Sixel]

Who's fault is it that he is a rookie at SS? They deserve this. How old is Escobar? Why can't he be the future for 3 or 4 years?

[beckmt]

 

Who's fault is it that he is a rookie at SS? They deserve this. How old is Escobar? Why can't he be the future for 3 or 4 years?

Escobar is about 25 or 26.  He is not viewed as a long term solution(he could be just not expected).  Your line would almost put Santana back in center field and make Escobar the shortshop.  That may not be all bad, but just waste another year of development of Twins youngsters that will be the next wave.  If Santana does not improve by early to mid 2016, it will be time to move on, but a few weeks is a small sample.  Escobar does not have the projected upside of Santana or many of the Twins minor league players coming up.  Twins need to find out want they have, so moves can be made to strengthen the ballclub.

Santana is one of the group of upcoming Twins that have the type of speed that can change games,  Kansas City is a very good example of what speed does with just average on base skills.

[Mike Sixel]

I can live with that answer. But, not sure I agree on Santana's upside. If only they would have shown this patience in the field last year, and had him at short.....

[brvama]

Who's fault is it that he is a rookie at SS? They deserve this. How old is Escobar? Why can't he be the future for 3 or 4 years?

Is this the same Mike that wants the young kids up and playing?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Who's fault is it that he is a rookie at SS? They deserve this. How old is Escobar? Why can't he be the future for 3 or 4 years?

 

The Twins have inexplicably set this path:  Santana at SS, Escobar at UTL, a soon to be retiree in RF and a sack of donuts in CF.  Santana spent 62 games in CF, 31 at SS.  How did management think naming Santana as starting SS?  Especially when Escobar had a very good year at SS [upside be damned] ?  And still no MLB quality OF's in sight ready to take over? 

 

I get what management is saying:  Keep Santana where he is to get experience at SS.  I highly disagree with the way they are managing the team this year.  IMHO:  Spring Training should have started with Santana in CF, Escobar at SS.  Then you've got the extra year to figure out where you can find OF'ers and a another year of working with the young INF' s in the MiLB to replace Escobar, IF he doesn't work out or has better trade value.

[Parker Hageman]

The runner was out by 15 feet and Santana's tailing throw almost took the catcher too far off to make the play - it was way closer than it needed to be.

 

 

Perez was rounding third before Santana even had the ball and still got him by 10 steps. Yes, the throw was up the line, a problem he's had, but the quick release and velocity was very impressive. 

 

[Tibs]

I think Escobar got the short end of the stick after how he performed last year. If they are sticking with Santana, then he really needs a full year out there unless he isn't hitting. That relay throw was really humming to the plate

[Major League Ready]

 

Who's fault is it that he is a rookie at SS? They deserve this. How old is Escobar? Why can't he be the future for 3 or 4 years?

Are you not the same guy always complaining that they don't move players up fast enough?  Of course, they could play him out of position for 3-4 years.  That would pretty much assure he never becomes a legit starting SS.  Obviously that plan is also flawed unless Buxton does not pan out. 

 

Many fans live in the right now which initiates all of the complaining.  There were lots of people freaking out after the first week.  Maybe that's why the F/O has not embraced a full rebuild mode.  Fans cheered when they signed Santana.  I hated it.  They have three guys signed long-term leaving 2 spots for several guys that should be better than all of them with the exception of perhaps Hughes.  That move (at least the initial signing) made sense because the contract covered his prime years and the price was right.

[markos]

 

Perez was rounding third before Santana even had the ball and still got him by 10 steps. Yes, the throw was up the line, a problem he's had, but the quick release and velocity was very impressive. 

I'm not sure that I'm know enough to label this play as "very impressive." Lots of major-league shortstops have strong arms and quick releases. I can't really determine from the video whether or not Santana's velocity and release are significantly better (or worse) than his peers'. Is this a play that only 5 shortstops could make? Or 25? If it is the latter, then it isn't "very impressive" so much as routine, and a play that needs to be made to order for Santana to not lose value relative to his peers.

 

Hopefully the Statcast data will help answer this question.

[Parker Hageman]

If it is the latter, then it isn't "very impressive" so much as routine, and a play that needs to be made to order for Santana to not lose value relative to his peers.

 

 

Fair point. The eye test tells me it is a strong play. How we measure it compared to his peers will certainly be up to StatsCast but even with all that data, I'm not sure it will provide an apples-to-apples comparison on that specific play. What we will be able to find is release time, velocity and maybe accuracy overall (which was lacking on that play) that will help define where Santana is at in comparison to other shortstops.

 

Regardless of where he ranks among his peers, Danny Santana displayed a very strong arm on that particular play. 

 

 

 

[Shane Wahl]

I haven't watched enough this year, but do you observers believe it is a matter of not getting to certain balls, missing routine ones, making errant throws when he has to hurry, or missing routine throws?

 

There are four options there. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are you not the same guy always complaining that they don't move players up fast enough?  Of course, they could play him out of position for 3-4 years.  That would pretty much assure he never becomes a legit starting SS.  Obviously that plan is also flawed unless Buxton does not pan out. 

 

Many fans live in the right now which initiates all of the complaining.  There were lots of people freaking out after the first week.  Maybe that's why the F/O has not embraced a full rebuild mode.  Fans cheered when they signed Santana.  I hated it.  They have three guys signed long-term leaving 2 spots for several guys that should be better than all of them with the exception of perhaps Hughes.  That move (at least the initial signing) made sense because the contract covered his prime years and the price was right.

 

No idea what you are talking about, I never said what do with Santana in that post. I was asking why Escobar, given his age and success last year, could not be the SS until Gordon or someone else is. None of that has anything to do with moving Santana around, indeed, moving him around last year was a HUGE bungle on their part, if they wanted him at SS long term. Like, mind numbingly bad.

 

If the FO is making long term financial decisions based on fans freaking out, they are losing the game. My question on this thread was couldn't Escobar be the future. That has zero to do with what you and the other poster are talking about, imo.

[troyhobbs]

 

The Twins have inexplicably set this path:  Santana at SS, Escobar at UTL, a soon to be retiree in RF and a sack of donuts in CF.  Santana spent 62 games in CF, 31 at SS.  How did management think naming Santana as starting SS?  Especially when Escobar had a very good year at SS [upside be damned] ?  And still no MLB quality OF's in sight ready to take over? 

 

I get what management is saying:  Keep Santana where he is to get experience at SS.  I highly disagree with the way they are managing the team this year.  IMHO:  Spring Training should have started with Santana in CF, Escobar at SS.  Then you've got the extra year to figure out where you can find OF'ers and a another year of working with the young INF' s in the MiLB to replace Escobar, IF he doesn't work out or has better trade value.

Escobar earned the right to be starting SS last year but Santana had an even better year, plus he wasn't that great of a CF so not sure it'd be good to put him out there w/ Hunter and Arcia. Tough deal for Escobar but I think the Twins had to start this way.

[Mike Sixel]

That said, I'm cool letting Santana stay out there, if they don't believe in Escobar.......I just am unsure why no one believes in Escobar at this point.

[Parker Hageman]

I haven't watched enough this year, but do you observers believe it is a matter of not getting to certain balls, missing routine ones, making errant throws when he has to hurry, or missing routine throws?

 

 

There's little doubt that Santana can get to everything. He seems to lack the soft hands to make every play -- that's where he and Escobar differentiate. He's made some rushed throws -- there was one routine one last series in which Vargas bailed him out by scooping and there's the example above at second. He had another ground ball that he misplayed but was able to pick it back up and fire out the slow-footed Jose Abreu. 

 

To me, it looking like pressing. As Ryan said, he has all the tools. Whether it is consistent playing time to feel comfortable or just getting more exposure at short after the time off, the Twins appear set to give him development time.  

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Escobar earned the right to be starting SS last year but Santana had an even better year, plus he wasn't that great of a CF so not sure it'd be good to put him out there w/ Hunter and Arcia. Tough deal for Escobar but I think the Twins had to start this way.

Better year hitting, but still the primary CF.  So, IMHO, the better choice would have been for Santana to continue learning CF than to send him back to SS without additional SS prep time.

 

As far as the rest of the OF:  They knew what Arcia was and added a 39yr old who is WELL past his time defensively [some say the worst defensive OF in baseball last year].  I don't think I'd halt any young OF's progress because of those 2, especially when Hunter should be gone next year.  Hopefully sooner.

 

[dxpavelka]

 

I get the point that the author is making but that throw from centerfield is not very impressive.  The runner was out by 15 feet and Santana's tailing throw almost took the catcher too far off to make the play - it was way closer than it needed to be.

It was a hell of a lot more impressive than one Dozier made last night that looked like my grandmother threw.  Still waiting for a metric to compare throws to those made by decesed grandmothers.

 

[dxpavelka]

Worth noting that we're talking about a guy with 137 games above AA ball who spent two thirds of his rookie year playing a position he'd played 25 minor league games at.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Worth noting that we're talking about a guy with 137 games above AA ball who spent two thirds of his rookie year playing a position he'd played 25 minor league games at.

In some ways, those data points suggest we should have given him a longer leash in the OF.

 

It's not perfectly analogous, but in 2012 Plouffe had a breakout season playing 3B, a position he had never before played in MLB and only barely played in the minors (76 games total, and only 8 games over the preceding 3 seasons).  We didn't send Plouffe back to SS for 2013, even though Florimon was likely a worse option at the position than Escobar now.

 

In 2013, Dozier had a breakout season playing 2B, a position he had never played in MLB and only played 47 times in the minors.  We didn't send Dozier back to SS for 2014, even though again Florimon was the top option at the spot.

 

Not sure why it was out of the question to let Santana continue to play the OF to begin 2015, with Escobar at SS (and only one utility infielder on the bench).  Actually, to complete the Dozier/Plouffe analogy, we could have shifted Santana to LF and acquired a CF version of Florimon (ace glove, no bat) to support him (and Arcia, and the pitching staff) defensively.

[sorney]

 

It was a hell of a lot more impressive than one Dozier made last night that looked like my grandmother threw.  Still waiting for a metric to compare throws to those made by decesed grandmothers.

My deceased grandma has a CANNON!! 

[troyhobbs]

 

In some ways, those data points suggest we should have given him a longer leash in the OF.

 

It's not perfectly analogous, but in 2012 Plouffe had a breakout season playing 3B, a position he had never before played in MLB and only barely played in the minors (76 games total, and only 8 games over the preceding 3 seasons).  We didn't send Plouffe back to SS for 2013, even though Florimon was likely a worse option at the position than Escobar now.

 

In 2013, Dozier had a breakout season playing 2B, a position he had never played in MLB and only played 47 times in the minors.  We didn't send Dozier back to SS for 2014, even though again Florimon was the top option at the spot.

 

Not sure why it was out of the question to let Santana continue to play the OF to begin 2015, with Escobar at SS (and only one utility infielder on the bench).  Actually, to complete the Dozier/Plouffe analogy, we could have shifted Santana to LF and acquired a CF version of Florimon (ace glove, no bat) to support him (and Arcia, and the pitching staff) defensively.

Hopefully the decision revolved around them understanding that they weren't going to compete this year and they needed to see what they have in Santana as a SS.  If he ain't it, they have another good candidate in Polanco coming up. If Santana's bat heats up and he continues to struggle defensively, perhaps then they can move him back to OF and EE back to full time SS...?

[mikelink45]

I think we have a real development problem with the Twins.  We have the number 1 rated minor leagues and have had for a few years.  Yes Buxton and Sano were hurt last year - we they the only reason we were number 1?  Where are the break out guys.  Arcia has moments, Santana has moments, Vargas has a September, Gibson is on and off, May - we hope will be good.  But we have problems in starting, relieving, fielding, hitting - see the stats, Mauer leads with 269 and most would love to reach the Mendoza line.  We have a bad outfield, our SS is the subject of this concern...We have had 4 terrible years and still nothing exciting.  Houston blew it up, Cubs blew it up and they are hoping to rise, we brought in players like we only needed a patch and where are we and what is our hope?

[Vanimal46]

 

I think we have a real development problem with the Twins.  We have the number 1 rated minor leagues and have had for a few years.  Yes Buxton and Sano were hurt last year - we they the only reason we were number 1?  Where are the break out guys.  Arcia has moments, Santana has moments, Vargas has a September, Gibson is on and off, May - we hope will be good.  But we have problems in starting, relieving, fielding, hitting - see the stats, Mauer leads with 269 and most would love to reach the Mendoza line.  We have a bad outfield, our SS is the subject of this concern...We have had 4 terrible years and still nothing exciting.  Houston blew it up, Cubs blew it up and they are hoping to rise, we brought in players like we only needed a patch and where are we and what is our hope?

 

I'm with you 100%. I'd be curious to have someone outside of the organization review the farm, and see if it's still this highly rated. Or if we've been fed lies the last 4 years. In my opinion it feels like we're still 2 years behind where the Cubs and Astros are. When they decided to blow it up and start over, we were still signing re-treads and no upside veterans as if we were thought to be a competitive team. I don't get it.

[mnfireman]

The farm system is rated #1 by the baseball experts, not the Twins. However, this #1 system still has its best prospects in AA or lower. And those players are in their first seasons at AA, so yes, the team is behind the Cubs and Astros, their better rated prospects were in the high minors. That being said, if the Twins hold their best prospects back, "not wanting to rush them", that is wrong. Highly rated prospects should be flying through a teams system, able to handle the high's and the low's, realizing they need to succeed and fail to attain major league stardom.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I sorta understand getting a look at Santana at SS, but for a team that has been so thoroughly mediocre up and down the roster for 4 years, it seems a little too cute to mess with two of their 2014 bright spots in this way.

 

I also think Molitor and perhaps Gardy before him has become a little too enamored of fellow infielders at the expense of outfielders. Giving outsize importance to the primary utility man role, factoring infielders as backup outfielders, etc.

[dxpavelka]

 

In some ways, those data points suggest we should have given him a longer leash in the OF.

 

It's not perfectly analogous, but in 2012 Plouffe had a breakout season playing 3B, a position he had never before played in MLB and only barely played in the minors (76 games total, and only 8 games over the preceding 3 seasons).  We didn't send Plouffe back to SS for 2013, even though Florimon was likely a worse option at the position than Escobar now.

 

In 2013, Dozier had a breakout season playing 2B, a position he had never played in MLB and only played 47 times in the minors.  We didn't send Dozier back to SS for 2014, even though again Florimon was the top option at the spot.

 

Not sure why it was out of the question to let Santana continue to play the OF to begin 2015, with Escobar at SS (and only one utility infielder on the bench).  Actually, to complete the Dozier/Plouffe analogy, we could have shifted Santana to LF and acquired a CF version of Florimon (ace glove, no bat) to support him (and Arcia, and the pitching staff) defensively.

I'm not sure anyone ever really thought of Plouffe or Dozier as a long term shortstop in the bigs.  Not sure why  they would have.  Santana went to CF not because of his lack of ability at SS but because of a lack of options in CF. 

[dxpavelka]

 

Better year hitting, but still the primary CF.  So, IMHO, the better choice would have been for Santana to continue learning CF than to send him back to SS without additional SS prep time.

 

As far as the rest of the OF:  They knew what Arcia was and added a 39yr old who is WELL past his time defensively [some say the worst defensive OF in baseball last year].  I don't think I'd halt any young OF's progress because of those 2, especially when Hunter should be gone next year.  Hopefully sooner.

The problem with continuing to teach Santana to play CF is that if he's still playing there in 2 years this team will be set back a decade.