2015 Minor League Transactions

[Seth Stohs]

 

Well, are you hearing anything in particular about why?

 

His ERA is almost 6 and his WHIP is almost 2.00. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Lack of control and general inconsistency and ineffectiveness, most likely.  The guy's been a mess.  That's why I wish they wouldn't have wasted all that developmental time with him last year in the lower levels.  His deficiencies and areas that he could have addressed in the offseason could have been identified right quick if he had been started off at either this level or High A  in 2014.

 

See, I completely disagree with that thinking. If I'm hearing you correctly, you're saying that he's struggled and he's a mess, so they should have pushed him faster so that he could have struggled sooner? I guess I just don't agree with that. 

[jokin]

 

See, I completely disagree with that thinking. If I'm hearing you correctly, you're saying that he's struggled and he's a mess, so they should have pushed him faster so that he could have struggled sooner? I guess I just don't agree with that. 

 

 

The proof is largely in the statistical pudding.

 

Just what was gained last year by a premier college pitcher- who had widely projected as a 1st Round draft pick, mowing down helpless A-ball players with his 100 MPH FB and wipeout slider?  He could/should have started out in High A and gone to AA after a couple of weeks of success at the previous level. His weaknesses would have been more readily identified in that process last year.  He and the Twins could then have come up with a strategic game plan in the offseason to work on the things that weren't working as well for him in AA.  Assuming that he is, and was, fully healthy in the past offseason, he would have been far more ready to hit the ground running in AA this spring.

 

Whatever the case, it's hard to dispute, the Twins plan that they did institute for him has largely and somewhat spectacularly, backfired  to this point in time.

[drjim]

The proof is largely in the statistical pudding.

 

Just what was gained last year by a premier college pitcher- who had widely projected as a 1st Round draft pick, mowing down helpless A-ball players with his 100 MPH FB and wipeout slider? He could/should have started out in High A and gone to AA after a couple of weeks of success at the previous level. His weaknesses would have been more readily identified in that process last year. He and the Twins could then have come up with a strategic game plan in the offseason to work on the things that weren't working as well for him in AA. Assuming that he is, and was, fully healthy in the past offseason, he would have been far more ready to hit the ground running in AA this spring.

 

Whatever the case, it's hard to dispute, the Twins plan that they did institute for him has largely and somewhat spectacularly, backfired to this point in time.

Do you follow development plans at all or just look at numbers and throw up your hands?

 

Twins draft a guy and let him finish his first pro season as is and then make adjustments during instructs. Adjustments that you yourself admit that he needed to make.

 

He brought these to AA, which is a pretty aggressive promotion. Clearly he hasn't taken to the adjustments as well as planned, but he'll have a chance now to regroup.

 

The Twins (and Burdi) weren't ignorant of his weaknesses, they made adjustments. Now it is up to the guy to actually execute said adjustments. Nothing would have changed if he went to AA last year and pitched the same style as he did in college.

[jokin]

 

Do you follow development plans at all or just look at numbers and throw up your hands?

Twins draft a guy and let him finish his first pro season as is and then make adjustments during instructs. Adjustments that you yourself admit that he needed to make.

He brought these to AA, which is a pretty aggressive promotion. Clearly he hasn't taken to the adjustments as well as planned, but he'll have a chance now to regroup.

The Twins (and Burdi) weren't ignorant of his weaknesses, they made adjustments. Nothing would have changed if he went to AA last year and pitched the same style as he did in college.

 

 

Uhh, no they didn't., if they weren't made obviously aware of them.  And you can't possibly say that nothing would have changed if he had had AA exposure last season and actually experienced where his weaknesses were.  Nothing is quite the same as testing where you're at in real time.   What actually happened was, he simply blew through A and A+ last year over guys who were ridiculously overmatched- hard to learn much when you're in the superioir position in that situation. He wasn't tested in any way in his 7 appearances at High A, right after making a mockery of A ball, especially when you throw out that initial disastrous appearance-  0.70 ERA/0.79 FIP/47.5% K-rate/0.90 WHIP/.180 BA. 

 

How would they know for sure what he could and couldn't do when he's striking out close to half of the hitters he faced and mostly unprepared guys just bailing out of there as fast as they could?

[TheLeviathan]

His ERA is almost 6 and his WHIP is almost 2.00.

 

These don't always lead to a demotion, especially for an arm thought ready to be here by 2016.

[drivlikejehu]

 

It seems safe to say that that 2014 strategy was a huge failure.  When he was drafted, there were many of us that, based on his CWS appearances, said his FB was too flat and hittable.  And whatever they've done to tinker with his both is FB and wipeout slider has "helped" to cause him to lose any sense of command of either.

 

I know there were some health issues in ST and there was a drop in velocity, but this has gone on too long for it just to be health-related.

 

He's just not that good and never has been.

[amjgt]

 

He's just not that good and never has been.

 

Based on what seems to be a general apathy by you toward all Twins prospects, it would be really interesting to see your top 30 prospect list. We already know it doesn't include Adam Brett Walker.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Based on what seems to be a general apathy by you toward all Twins prospects, it would be really interesting to see your top 30 prospect list. We already know it doesn't include Adam Brett Walker.

 

My top 10 is fairly similar to the TD one that was counted down recently. The main difference would be that I have some young prospects with potential upside (e.g., Lewin Diaz) ahead of more advanced, but low ceiling players, particularly relievers. But in general, Walker and maybe Felix Jorge and Stuart Turner are the only guys that come to mind where I assess their status significantly lower than the TD consensus.

[twinssouth]

The games I saw he had absolutely no control and my Son-in-law commented how flat his fb's were when coming in at 98 or 99. By the way, no pitch I saw came in over a 100. Both of us commented on his best pitch outside of the slider was his fb at 95, it showed a lot of movement. I saw him come into the game with runners on and proceed to walk in runs, now the team has lost the lead,, then groove something and the hits start, another reliever has to come in to finish it. I saw him start an inning clean, no pressure and yet the walks continued. I don't believe he even finished the inning.

 

I guess the old adage maybe true here, he needs to experience failure first before succeeding. It just looked from my vantage, that he's not sure how to deal with these quality hitters. I will say, when he's working in the zone, he is effective. The guy needs to get his mojo back.

[d-mac]

This is completely backwards. If what he was doing in college wouldn't work in the bigs (as you said yourself), clearly he needed to change. And that change might take time. Sometimes a player can pick it up right away, sometimes it takes an adjustment period. The best hope is that he can take a step back, gather himself, clean up his issue and rocket back through the system.

Well, then they should never have drafted him. He was touted as "quick to the majors" and nearly major league ready bullpen arm with big velocity. If they needed to tinker with him in order for him to have success in the majors and the only way to do so lowered his velo and ruined his control then I don't know how anyone can view that draft pick as anything but a failure. And if this isn't an indictment on the strategy of drafting college relievers, then I don't know what is.

[d-mac]

He's been rehabbing from injury for the better part of a year now. I think if you had better inside knowledge, you'd find that your notion that they're moving players too slowly is pretty much baseless.

And so you have insider knowledge? Last time I checked you aren't Seth or Jeremy.

[jokin]

 

This is completely backwards. If what he was doing in college wouldn't work in the bigs (as you said yourself), clearly he needed to change. And that change might take time. Sometimes a player can pick it up right away, sometimes it takes an adjustment period. The best hope is that he can take a step back, gather himself, clean up his issue and rocket back through the system.

 

No, this was forwards thinking- make the adjustments in real time to hitters at his own appropriate level of competitiveness, not beating up on the helpless and unprepared with stuff that clearly hasn't translated at more experienced hitters.

 

It would be far better to have made the changes last year to enable him to pick things up and not lose a whole year, maybe perhaps ending up being two years, of development time.  Only now in the aftermath of that shortsightedness, the best hope is to step back, clean up the mess that both the developmental staff and the player have made of his career thus far.

[jokin]

 

The games I saw he had absolutely no control and my Son-in-law commented how flat his fb's were when coming in at 98 or 99. By the way, no pitch I saw came in over a 100. Both of us commented on his best pitch outside of the slider was his fb at 95, it showed a lot of movement. I saw him come into the game with runners on and proceed to walk in runs, now the team has lost the lead,, then groove something and the hits start, another reliever has to come in to finish it. I saw him start an inning clean, no pressure and yet the walks continued. I don't believe he even finished the inning.

I guess the old adage maybe true here, he needs to experience failure first before succeeding. It just looked from my vantage, that he's not sure how to deal with these quality hitters. I will say, when he's working in the zone, he is effective. The guy needs to get his mojo back.

 

Old adages survive because they are possessed with the ring of truth.  Spot on.

 

From the time I saw him throw in early May, until you saw him here in June, it sounds like nothing at all has changed.  He was throwing 98 and an occasional 99, but in hitter's counts, the opposition was sitting on those FBs right down the middle of the plate. Clearly,when I saw him throw, there was both lack of command and lack of a plan.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, then they should never have drafted him. He was touted as "quick to the majors" and nearly major league ready bullpen arm with big velocity. If they needed to tinker with him in order for him to have success in the majors and the only way to do so lowered his velo and ruined his control then I don't know how anyone can view that draft pick as anything but a failure. And if this isn't an indictment on the strategy of drafting college relievers, then I don't know what is.

 

Amen.

[drjim]

 

Well, then they should never have drafted him. He was touted as "quick to the majors" and nearly major league ready bullpen arm with big velocity. If they needed to tinker with him in order for him to have success in the majors and the only way to do so lowered his velo and ruined his control then I don't know how anyone can view that draft pick as anything but a failure. And if this isn't an indictment on the strategy of drafting college relievers, then I don't know what is.

 

This may be true. I was agnostic about the pick personally.

[drjim]

 

No, this was forwards thinking- make the adjustments in real time to hitters at his own appropriate level of competitiveness, not beating up on the helpless and unprepared with stuff that clearly hasn't translated at more experienced hitters.

 

It would be far better to have made the changes last year to enable him to pick things up and not lose a whole year, maybe perhaps ending up being two years, of development time.  Only now in the aftermath of that shortsightedness, the best hope is to step back, clean up the mess that both the developmental staff and the player have made of his career thus far.

 

So you wanted the guy to debut professionally at a high level while also revamping all his mechanics at the same time? Seems ambitious and unrealistic.

 

They wanted him to debut and adjust to pro ball while keeping up innings, make adjustments during instructs and debut them this year with an aggressive promotion. I really don't see the problem.

[d-mac]

 

This may be true. I was agnostic about the pick personally.

And in fairness I hate drafting college relievers in the top 5 or 6 rounds, so I'm going to use every available bit of ammunition I can find to complain about it. I think it's dumb, a fool's errand to to try to turn arms that couldn't cut it as a starter as an amateur and try to turn them into a major league pitcher with all the same risks of injury that a starter has.

 

Individual bullpen arms are fairly fungible. You can find them just about anywhere. Failed starters- Most of the greatest Twins' bullpen arms in recent memory were failed starters- Joe Nathan and Glen Perkins- and I think Pelfrey could be a great power arm in the pen, and Taylor Rogers could have a long career as a killer LOOGY. You can sign them to minor league deals- both Casey Fien and Jared Burton were minor league deals. Rule 5- Pressly looks to be a solid arm going forward and I see the same potential in Graham.

 

So, drafting relievers should be a mid-round thing. Find a reliever with a big fastball or a killer breaking ball, sign him for $100k and see if he can cut it. Not a lot of risk there. But wasting big money on college relievers- not to mention the opportunity cost of forgoing hitters and starters in the early rounds of the draft makes it a no-win situation. Still a lot of risk with the little upside value a single bullpen arm provides over a career makes the cost-benefit analysis look bad. 

[d-mac]

 

So you wanted the guy to debut professionally at a high level while also revamping all his mechanics at the same time? Seems ambitious and unrealistic.

 

They wanted him to debut and adjust to pro ball while keeping up innings, make adjustments during instructs and debut them this year with an aggressive promotion. I really don't see the problem.

 

I think your missing his point. He's saying that by starting him at A+ last year and then promoting him to AA would have exposed these issues sooner, and they could have been addressed in the off season and during spring training. By exposing them this year, they are wasting valuable development time and bullets in that arm. Going to A ball was a complete waste of time. 

 

He was sold to us as being nearly major league ready- he is exactly the kind of pitcher they should be aggressive with from day one.

[drjim]

 

I think your missing his point. He's saying that by starting him at A+ last year and then promoting him to AA would have exposed these issues sooner, and they could have been addressed in the off season and during spring training. By exposing them this year, they are wasting valuable development time and bullets in that arm. Going to A ball was a complete waste of time. 

 

He was sold to us as being nearly major league ready- he is exactly the kind of pitcher they should be aggressive with from day one.

 

Actually I disagree. He would have pitched differently last year (ie straight fastball) vs. the tweaks they have made over the offseason. And, I think he might have been pretty successful in AA using a straight fastball in a way that wouldn't have worked in the bigs. So it would have been counterproductive to the end product they want him to be in the majors.

 

The plan for last year was to acclimate to pro ball and get innings in. The work began this year. In this sense the process was followed, though the results have not.

[jokin]

 

 

 

They wanted him to debut and adjust to pro ball while keeping up innings, make adjustments during instructs and debut them this year with an aggressive promotion. I really don't see the problem.

 

The problem is- the plan failed, spectacularly so.

[jokin]

 

I think your missing his point. He's saying that by starting him at A+ last year and then promoting him to AA would have exposed these issues sooner, and they could have been addressed in the off season and during spring training. By exposing them this year, they are wasting valuable development time and bullets in that arm. Going to A ball was a complete waste of time. 

 

He was sold to us as being nearly major league ready- he is exactly the kind of pitcher they should be aggressive with from day one.

 

+1 Spot on.

[nicksaviking]

 

So you wanted the guy to debut professionally at a high level while also revamping all his mechanics at the same time? Seems ambitious and unrealistic.

 

They wanted him to debut and adjust to pro ball while keeping up innings, make adjustments during instructs and debut them this year with an aggressive promotion. I really don't see the problem.

 

I know I'm jumping into the middle of a mud war, but I guess my two cents is: The team needs to stop tinkering with all these relievers they draft.  Why did they try to revamp Burdi's mechanics at all?  He didn't have too many questions about his control in college and while he didn't look pretty throwing, so what?  He's a reliever, hardly any of them look as fluid as a starter, which is why they are in the pen to begin with.  I don't want my relievers looking like ballet dancers anyway, I want them to look violent and awkward enough to make the batter uncomfortable. 

 

I'd guess the Twins have shortened his stride as they do all pitchers (of course reducing his velocity) and they tried to change just about everything else about his delivery on the top end.  Not all pitchers have to look the same, let this guy do his thing, scare batters with his 100 MPH heater for a few seasons, and then if it all craps out, then tinker with the mechanics.  Veteran pitchers do it all the time after an injury or when velocity decreases.

 

 

[drjim]

I thought the tinker was to get movement on his fastball.

[d-mac]

 

Actually I disagree. He would have pitched differently last year (ie straight fastball) vs. the tweaks they have made over the offseason. And, I think he might have been pretty successful in AA using a straight fastball in a way that wouldn't have worked in the bigs. So it would have been counterproductive to the end product they want him to be in the majors.

 

The plan for last year was to acclimate to pro ball and get innings in. The work began this year. In this sense the process was followed, though the results have not.

 

We don't know that, now do we? It was never tried. Again, I don't know how much more I could possibly stress that the draft time scouting reports said he was "nearly major league ready." To me that means refine command and be up within a year. Turns out that was not the case. Either he is 1. injured, 2. the changes the Twins made were wrong, or 3. the scouts were wrong about him. There are only 3 options. Which one is it?

 

The second part was also our plan, but just starting out at a higher level- that is the only difference between our plan's first year. 

[jokin]

 

We don't know that, now do we? It was never tried. Again, I don't know how much more I could possibly stress that the draft time scouting reports said he was "nearly major league ready." To me that means refine command and be up within a year. Turns out that was not the case. Either he is 1. injured, 2. the changes the Twins made were wrong, or 3. the scouts were wrong about him. There are only 3 options. Which one is it?

 

The second part was also our plan, but just starting out at a higher level- that is the only difference between our plan's first year. 

Good summation.

[d-mac]

 

I thought the tinker was to get movement on his fastball.

 

Like Nick says above, why?

[drjim]

 

The problem is- the plan failed, spectacularly so.

 

Indeed it did, no argument. But he's also not dead yet.

 

My pushback would be that your plan, such as I understand it, would have made no difference. You acknowledge that his fastball was too straight and the Twins clearly tried to adjust it in the offseason and these are the results. Not sure how a couple of games last year at AA would have changed that.

[d-mac]

 

I know I'm jumping into the middle of a mud war, but I guess my two cents is: The team needs to stop tinkering with all these relievers they draft.  Why did they try to revamp Burdi's mechanics at all?  He didn't have too many questions about his control in college and while he didn't look pretty throwing, so what?  He's a reliever, hardly any of them look as fluid as a starter, which is why they are in the pen to begin with.  I don't want my relievers looking like ballet dancers anyway, I want them to look violent and awkward enough to make the batter uncomfortable. 

 

I'd guess the Twins have shortened his stride as they do all pitchers (of course reducing his velocity) and they tried to change just about everything else about his delivery on the top end.  Not all pitchers have to look the same, let this guy do his thing, scare batters with his 100 MPH heater for a few seasons, and then if it all craps out, then tinker with the mechanics.  Veteran pitchers do it all the time after an injury or when velocity decreases.

 

I think it's pretty damning of the Twins drafting and player development of pitching the last few years. They draft (and trade, you could probably count Meyer, too) all of these power arms both starters and bullpen arms. But their player development side (especially for the relievers that were highly drafted and had success at high levels in college) try to turn them all in to strike throwers and revamp their mechanics, maybe they think they can limit injuries this way (a spectacular fail there), I don't know. The result is that none of them have made the majors or even been able to have success above high-A ball or even stay healthy. 

[jokin]

 

I think it's pretty damning of the Twins drafting and player development of pitching the last few years. They draft (and trade, you could probably count Meyer, too) all of these power arms both starters and bullpen arms. But their player development side (especially for the relievers that were highly drafted and had success at high levels in college) try to turn them all in to strike throwers and revamp their mechanics, maybe they think they can limit injuries this way (a spectacular fail there), I don't know. The result is that none of them have made the majors or even been able to have success above high-A ball or even stay healthy. 

 

Man you're on a roll, preach it brother.