Article: When Is It Time To Take Action?

[jimmer]

If Hunter makes the hall of fame or even comes close I will eat my shorts.

[jimmer]

'NOBODY expected the Twins to shell out big bucks or top prospects for a bona fide stud CF this off season. Why would you when you had Buxton on the way'

 

If we had gotten one through trade, though, he wouldn't have to stay in CF whenever Buxton (The guaranteed stud that will lift us from the depths of despair and will be awesome right away) showed up, right?

Edited April 16, 2015 by jimmer

[Buford_T_Justice]

You know it's bad when Nick is despondent!

 

I can't see cutting bait on Gibson and his potential after one, or even two, rough starts. He's way too talented to say "He stunk last week, so move on."

 

The sample size is simply way too small to be talking wholesale changes at this point. I would bring Pinto up as he's obviously got himself back in playing shape, but let's be honest, Herrman has not been the problem so far!

 

Small sample size Exhibit A: Hicks' "OPS over 1.000" just dropped 200 points in a single game. Let's see how a few weeks pan out.

 

The current Twins lineup is bad, but it isn't THIS bad. I can't believe that we'll continue this putrid play and record over the next three weeks.

 

I'm in with the small sample size camp. We need to give this all some time, or we need to believe that Sam Fuld will maintain his 1.054 OPS. Seriously.

[DocBauer]

Robinson is, quite frankly, a AAAA-ish player who is a 5th ML OFer with some usefulness. Not being mean...just accurate based on his career thus far.

 

Schafer is a quality athlete who plays a nice LF and can provide great base running and SB's, but has done nothing to indicate he could do anything at the ML level..ever...until the last 2 months of last season. Again, not a knock or being mean. I was impressed and was hoping for more this season. But that is not a resume for handing over a ML roster spot, period, much less a starting CF job!

 

With so much young bullpen talent available, I struggled all off season with the signing of a past proven veteran, a Hawkins-type let's say, who could provide experience and leadership and a challenge to Fien, and hopefully hold the 8th inning for a year while all those young arms transitioned to more important roles at the ML level. They had ability and experience, just needed a bit more.

 

And dare I say it again? This is what we get?

 

I didn't think Stauffer was a good signing. Wish he'd prove me wrong, don't believe he will.  Thought Boyer was signed as a dart in the dark and AAA help.Still think that's what he is.  Felt Pelfrey had a shot to re-invent himself as a reliever. A shot. Honestly, I sort of get the first signing. I can almost get the second signing if it was ONE year. But track history now shows Pelfrey with one good year, one decent year, and all other ML seasons...overall, forgetting moments or short periods...as poor or awful or injured. But he's in the rotation for what reason? Because the Twins are so desperate for someone to take the ball every 5th day on a rebuilding team that they turn to a failed starter rather than gamble on one of their prospects?

 

Blow up the bullpen. Make the moves NOW...another week at most. Awful and over matched isn't a bad day...it's bad days and bad weeks going all the way back to ST. A bad SP Pelfrey is still a bad SP Pelfrey.

 

OMG....I'm about ready to have an aneu....aneury.....stroke!

[gbg]

 

 

OMG....I'm about ready to have an aneu....aneury.....stroke!

Pull up!  Pull UP!

 

Breathe, Doc. Breathe. That's a whole lot of words for one day for a sub-par baseball team! :-)

 

Please, no strokes on the board. It's just not worth it, man!

[ashbury]

 

I'm really curious why his walk rate skyrocketed between AA and AAA

More experienced batters taking the slider in the dirt for a ball instead of swinging futilely?

[beckmt]

It's only a week. Good pitching will cure a lot. Bullpen will need to be addressed, just give it a couple of weeks

[jimmer]

 

It's only been 4 seasons plus a week. Good pitching will cure a lot. Bullpen will need to be addressed, just give it a couple of weeks

FTFY 

Edited April 16, 2015 by jimmer

[dbminn]

Put a short leash on bullpen depth. We have AAA relievers who are ready to go.

 

Hicks is no solution in CF, at least until he proves he can field the position. He's been as bad in the field as he's been at the plate the past two years. We probably have to let Shafer play until Rosario or Buxton is ready to take the spot.

 

Let the current rotation pitch for a while. Only Pelfrey should have a short leash. The problem here is long term. Two aging starters, mediocre at best, clogging the rotation for years to come. 

 

Otherwise, we're stuck until the AA prospects are ready. They should not be brought up before their time. Some may arrive in the next two months, some late in the season. Fan anguish on April 16th isn't a good reason to bring them up now.

 

I'm more interested in the next few months:

 

We have too many good hit / no field players in the pipeline (Sano, Walker, Harrison). Trade either Vargas or Pinto if the price is right.

 

Trade Suzuki as contending teams inevitably lose their starting catchers. Let Fryer, a good defensive catcher, have a chance to start.

 

Let's pray that Nolasco comes back and pitches well enough to be traded, even if the Twins have to eat a chunk of the contract and get nothing in return.

 

Put Hunter on the bench if and when Rosario and Buxton arrive. Or, move Danny Santana back to the outfield if Polanco keeps lighting up AA.

 

 

[Rosterman]

We have all been totally wrong. The third place Minnesota Twins are not a mess.. Sure, the starters can get into the fifth inning. A reliever throws a bad pitch now and then. They can play errorless ball. And they can also play little ball and do the walk off home run bit. Our whatever starter kept us in the game against another's team #1 starter. The other team was almost as dismal as hitting as we were, considering we took the first five innings off. Marney got drenched and shorted her microphone. Bloody Mary's were being served with two pieces of cold pizza at the sixth inning. We are on a roll. Third Place Minnesota Twins! Can wait until we dominate the .500 Westies!

[Mill1634]

To whoever said trade Vargas...Why would we ever do that. Yes he is struggling, but I have confidence sooner or later, that he will finally figure out how to hit a curve ball. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

To whoever said trade Vargas...Why would we ever do that. Yes he is struggling, but I have confidence sooner or later, that he will finally figure out how to hit a curve ball. 

Trading Vargas in the future might make sense. Right now, it would be premature and a terrible trade because I think his value is only going to rise in the next 12-24 months.

 

Vargas had a good season but he wasn't a heralded prospect coming through the minors. Opposing GMs are going to be reluctant to loot the farm in trade and for good reason.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Switching back to Arcia for a bit... I have a tough time believing he cannot be an average defender. He's not some fat out of shape slob. And I'd add that the way he's swinging the bat right now, I'd probably give him some time in AAA to season. He's not playing his best right now. Not sure if the coaches are getting through to him or not, but he's been pretty bad on both sides of the ball.

[Willihammer]

Arcia isn't fat but he wasn't blessed with the athleticism that say, a 24 year old Torii Hunter had. You can see it every time he hits the deck and bungles a shoestring opportunity like he did today (again), for example.

Edited April 18, 2015 by Willihammer

[TheLeviathan]

 

Arcia isn't fat but he wasn't blessed with the athleticism that say, a 24 year old Torii Hunter had. You can see it every time he hits the deck and bungles a shoestring opportunity like he did today (again), for example.

 

Or the way he had to unbuckle the cement shoes before he made that "effort".  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This is the roster that Ryan and Molitor felt gave them the best chance to win, so I expect no rash decisions or panicked comments from either of them.

I understand the frustration with Arcia. But he is the least of our problems. Arcia was a catalyst at times last year, which Gardy joked about at one point. His D is what it is. He will make the occasional impressive running catch or great throw, however. Hopefully someone has his ear and can steer him when necessary. Unless something is obviously wrong I hope they let Arcia play through it. He will hit eventually.

i dunno if this is the roster that TR and Moli agreed upon. The Eduardos have started in 3/11 of the games in the outfield, and have pinch hit/run a couple more times. Does infielders in the outfield remind you of someone? Is it possible that Moli doesn't have the roster he wants?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I know how bad Arcia can look at times. I've also seen him be a catalyst and know he is immensely talented with room still to improve. I would go in to war with Oswaldo Arcia 7 days a week.

 

Meanwhile, Torii Hunter missed another cut off man today.

 

That's all I got. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Put a short leash on bullpen depth. We have AAA relievers who are ready to go.

 

Hicks is no solution in CF, at least until he proves he can field the position. He's been as bad in the field as he's been at the plate the past two years. We probably have to let Shafer play until Rosario or Buxton is ready to take the spot.

 

Let the current rotation pitch for a while. Only Pelfrey should have a short leash. The problem here is long term. Two aging starters, mediocre at best, clogging the rotation for years to come. 

 

Otherwise, we're stuck until the AA prospects are ready. They should not be brought up before their time. Some may arrive in the next two months, some late in the season. Fan anguish on April 16th isn't a good reason to bring them up now.

 

I'm more interested in the next few months:

 

We have too many good hit / no field players in the pipeline (Sano, Walker, Harrison). Trade either Vargas or Pinto if the price is right.

 

Trade Suzuki as contending teams inevitably lose their starting catchers. Let Fryer, a good defensive catcher, have a chance to start.

 

Let's pray that Nolasco comes back and pitches well enough to be traded, even if the Twins have to eat a chunk of the contract and get nothing in return.

 

Put Hunter on the bench if and when Rosario and Buxton arrive. Or, move Danny Santana back to the outfield if Polanco keeps lighting up AA.

i was with you until the Trade Vargas part. Everything thereafter I disagree with vehemently. Prospects are just prospects, let them play it out.

In regards to Suzuki... Bring up Pinto, let him earn his starting position and hold on to Suzuki as backup.

Nolasco will never ever be tradeable, just let that one go.

Hunter never should have been signed, but I can't imagine what he would be like on the bench full time. You can't really cut him, and he's untradeable, no idea there, painted into a corner. Santana needs to stay at SS. Let Hicks/Rosario/Buxton unseat the dynamic duo, it shouldn't be that hard.

[Willihammer]

 

I know how bad Arcia can look at times. I've also seen him be a catalyst and know he is immensely talented with room still to improve. I would go in to war with Oswaldo Arcia 7 days a week.

 

Meanwhile, Torii Hunter missed another cut off man today.

 

That's all I got. 

Yeah I noticed that too. Kinda funny that Hunter keeps missing cutoff men. On the other hand I think he put up probably the 3 best PAs against Salazar all day.

 

Back to Arcia, I like his bat enough that I'd play him in the OF everyday, certainly against righties. But I don't share the optimism about his defensive abilities or lack thereof. He looks like he has two left feet to me.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Yeah I noticed that too. Kinda funny that Hunter keeps missing cutoff men. On the other hand I think he put up probably the 3 best PAs against Salazar all day.

 

Back to Arcia, I like his bat enough that I'd play him in the OF everyday, certainly against righties. But I don't share the optimism about his defensive abilities or lack thereof. He looks like he has two left feet to me.

 

Yeah when I said "room to improve" I meant at the plate

 

I don't think anyone is claiming Arcia is the worst of our problems, but I think people misinterpret him. I think if he can harness his emotions he'll be a very good hitter and a little wiser in the field. It will take time. (That's my view from 35,000 feet anyway.)

[stringer bell]

Arcia drives me crazy sometimes.  One moment he's pumping his fist and the next he seems lost.  I said on another thread that he seems to have "baseball ADD".  He can't seem to stay focused.  He has far to man "no chance" at-bats.

 

Nuñez is also frustrating.  He will do something good followed by a huge mistake.  The deke on the steal was all on him. 

 

As for the "infielders in the outfield" meme, I think both Escobar and Nuñez would be decent with 30 games or so out there.  They've both already thrown out a runner and should be adept at charging hits to the OF.  With a little experience routes on fly balls could improve as well. 

 

Jordan Schafer hasn't covered himself with glory so far.  However, neither Rosario or Hicks is lighting it up in Rochester at this point. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

'NOBODY expected the Twins to shell out big bucks or top prospects for a bona fide stud CF this off season. Why would you when you had Buxton on the way'

 

If we had gotten one through trade, though, he wouldn't have to stay in CF whenever Buxton (The guaranteed stud that will lift us from the depths of despair and will be awesome right away) showed up, right?

so this makes Shane Robinson and Torii Hunter OK?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Arcia drives me crazy sometimes.  One moment he's pumping his fist and the next he seems lost.  I said on another thread that he seems to have "baseball ADD".  He can't seem to stay focused.  He has far to man "no chance" at-bats.

 

Nuñez is also frustrating.  He will do something good followed by a huge mistake.  The deke on the steal was all on him. 

 

As for the "infielders in the outfield" meme, I think both Escobar and Nuñez would be decent with 30 games or so out there.  They've both already thrown out a runner and should be adept at charging hits to the OF.  With a little experience routes on fly balls could improve as well. 

 

Jordan Schafer hasn't covered himself with glory so far.  However, neither Rosario or Hicks is lighting it up in Rochester at this point.

 

i think you are right, but if you are going to teach infielders outfielding at the bigs, why not teach minor league outfielders hitting at the bigs?

 

I think the bigger point and how the meme fits is, players out of position 30% of a 11 game old season, along with the big free agent bull pen acquisition only getting mop up or desperation duty, is an indication that this roster is in dire need of an overhaul.

 

time to make some roster changes to put the right players in a place to succeed, so the biggest offseason acquisition, manager Paul Molitor, can also succeed, or stick to your guns and watch the whole FO and coaching staff get blown up in October

[stringer bell]

Shane Robinson has had 15 at-bats in 11 games, and that includes a high percentage of left handed starters.  He's an okay fourth/fifth outfielder much like Jason Repko.  The three starters haven't hit much, but there is a reasonable expectation that Hunter and Arcia will.  So far, Schafer has been poor, and that isn't much of a surprise.  His potential replacements aren't tearing it up in Rochester. 

[jimmer]

 

so this makes Shane Robinson and Torii Hunter OK?

Oh goodness no, that's my point.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Oh goodness no, that's my point.

oh good, I was worried about you for a moment...

[jimmer]

I was saying if we had gotten a quality CF (at any point in the last three years), we could move him to a corner whenever Buxton was ready. As far as Hunter goes, yeah I've been against that from the beginning.

Edited April 19, 2015 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

At this point, players can not be evaluated based on stats. Whether some is tearing it up or struggling, the stats don't show it. Someone watching the Twins or Red Wing games can assess the approach at the plate and the quality of each at bat. They can assess the quality of contact. They can assess the defense in the outfield.

 

Around 120 plate appearances strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate become useful in assessing full time players. Until then the only way to assess the players is to see them in the ballpark every game. A skilled eye can see a change in ability or talent in a much smaller sample. It is those trained eyes in Rochester and Minnesota that the Twins must rely on to make the decision on Hicks, Rosario and Schafer.

[stringer bell]

 

At this point, players can not be evaluated based on stats. Whether some is tearing it up or struggling, the stats don't show it. Someone watching the Twins or Red Wing games can assess the approach at the plate and the quality of each at bat. They can assess the quality of contact. They can assess the defense in the outfield.

Around 120 plate appearances strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate become useful in assessing full time players. Until then the only way to assess the players is to see them in the ballpark every game. A skilled eye can see a change in ability or talent in a much smaller sample. It is those trained eyes in Rochester and Minnesota that the Twins must rely on to make the decision on Hicks, Rosario and Schafer.

Thanks for preaching the gospel of Small Sample Size.  Well said.  The walks and strikeouts stand out to me.  So far in 40-plus PAs, Rosario has two walks and 14 Ks.  Hicks has 5 walks and 12 Ks.  Meanwhile in Chattanooga, Buxton has one walk and 13 Ks.  Schafer in fewer PAs (30) has one walk and 10 whiffs.

Edited April 19, 2015 by stringer bell

[Kwak]

Frankly, it is too soon to make wholesale changes. The desperate moves of Escobar and Nunez to the OF smack of front office interference. This is what we saw with Gardenhire as manager. I am now convinced that said changes were Front Office inspired.  Play who you have (except for injuries or suspension) and build continuity. After 8 weeks, then consider making changes.