Article: When Is It Time To Take Action?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins desperately needed a good start this year to generate some enthusiasm following a stretch of four consecutive horrible seasons and a deflating development involving their top free agent acquisition just before Opening Day.

 

Unfortunately, the first week has played out in the opposite fashion. One could hardly imagine a worse start to this 2015 campaign, as the first week of games has seen the Twins win just one of seven. For the most part, this club hasn't even been competitive.

 

Some of the struggles are tied up in slumps that seem unlikely to extend much further. But this is a roster that was constructed sub-optimally from the start, as Twins decision-makers opted for veteran mediocrity over youthful upside in almost every possible instance.

 

With that plan blowing up in the worst way, how long will Terry Ryan, Paul Molitor and Co. stick to their guns? How patient can they be before implementing major shakeups to prevent things from getting out of hand?One could paint the idea of drastic roster overhauls after one week of games as an overreaction, but in this case the horrors that have played out on the field only help to confirm the dubiousness of several choices made at the end of spring.

 

In a sense, it's unfair to cast judgment on Blaine Boyer or Tim Stauffer or the current center field duo for struggling in such a small sample, especially with the team at large failing on almost every level. But these are easily addressed problems, where the solution is almost certain to pay better short-term and long-term dividends. What benefit is there to continually trotting out a veteran like Boyer or Shane Robinson?

 

The minor-leaguers have done their parts in an even smaller slate of games. Aaron Hicks has an OPS above 1.000 through four games at Triple-A and Josmil Pinto is over .800 as usual. The Rochester bullpen, which includes several seemingly MLB-ready arms, has not allowed a run.

 

Sample size be damned, it seems flat-out strange that these players are putting up numbers in Triple-A after being eschewed for ill-equipped vets that look overmatched in the majors.

 

If things continue the way they're going, the Twins will face some tougher decisions. How long can Oswaldo Arcia continue to stumble around in left field while looking utterly awful at the plate? How lengthy is Kyle Gibson's leash if he keeps delivering starts that remotely resemble his first one? Can J.R. Graham be trusted to overcome his control woes and get outs?

 

But those potentially long-term building blocks deserve more patience than veteran journeyman bench players and relievers who probably shouldn't have been on the roster to begin with, and carry little if any value beyond this season. Clear them out, and replace them with viable young players to energize this grossly underperforming squad.

 

I'm not necessarily convinced that a roster with Hicks, Pinto, Michael Tonkin, Ryan Pressly and others is going to be substantially better, but it could hardly be worse and at the very least it gives fans something worth tuning into.

 

At this point, that's got to be a major concern for this club.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Totally agreed, except for Gibson, who I think should be given a much longer leash.

[sorney]

I would totally love it for them to cut bait NOW with the veteran-ness they decided to place on the roster...however, they probably have to give them til at least the end of the month if they ever want to attract any free-agents in the future.

[mikelink45]

I keep talking about the Twins business model as well as their antiquated baseball strategy.  Letting young players wear out in the minors instead of the majors makes no sense unless you are like the Yankees of old and just keep hoisting World Series Cups on to your shelf.  But a bad team?

However, it is a fact that MLB is a business and as such paying attention to fans in general and your most loyal in particular is important.  I say bring up a minor league stud every homestand - make it exciting - see if you can fill some seats and maybe win some games.  Do they want the best ball park to be an empty ball park?  

[Winston Smith]

The time was back in the winter when he could have signed some decent players rather than more guys off the scrap pile.

[roger]

Have you looked at Aaron Hicks' splits?  Yes, he has an OPS of 1.024.  But he also is hitting for a .154 average lefthanded with a .522 OPS. 

 

So nothing has changed from the past two years when he was a failure! 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd say with the pen, sooner than later. They should have allowed a couple of those younger arms in the pen to begin with. Not quite sure Burdi, Reed, Jones are ready for the show, but letting Tonkin, Oliveros, and Pressley have some extended time makes a ton of sense.

 

I think Arcia needs a few more weeks, though it should be clearly pointed out to him is that he needs to work a lot harder on the defense. His offense certainly isn't helping, but I'm far less worried about that long term than the fact that defense doesn't appear to be something he is working on. He's 23, and played some CF in rookie ball. There's no reason to think he cannot be an average defender.

 

I'd imagine Pinto will be up shortly regardless.

[Loosey]

Plain and simple the young guys need to come up.  Have Hicks give up the switch hitting and let him play every day in the Majors for a month to see if he can get some consistency.  Completely overhaul the pen, and then prepare the ascent of Sano and Buxton for mid-Summer treat for the fans.

[Vance_Christianson]

Terry Ryan failed the Twins this past off-season with the multiple signings of over 30+ year old signings on a team that needs to be in rebuild mode. We have 3-5 guys in AAA that really should be on our big league club. Of the past off-season signings only Ervin Santana intrigued me as he could get us 15+ wins and a ERA of 3.3 or so. Now that we lost him, I've lost any hope of .500, and 5 years of 90+ losses is underway.

 

[KGB]

Pinto is showing he is healthy, so there is no reason to keep him in AAA.  Keeping better bullpen pitchers in AAA over no upside veteran's also make no sense so I hope both of these moves are made quickly.

 

I think you have to give the outfield a little bit more time and see if HIcks or Rosario at AAA a little longer to make the right move. 

[Secondary User]

Just some context on Hicks here guys:

 

2015 splits:

vs. RHP: .154/.214/.308, 5Ks and 1 BB in 14 PAs

vs. LHP: .500/.600/1.250 3Ks and 2 BBs in 10 PAs

 

Now all the usual cautions of small sample sizes absolutely apply, but what we're seeing in the numbers is that he's still struggling as a lefty and hitting well from the right side.  With just numbers, it is possible he's facing some bad luck, but 5 Ks in 14 PAs doesn't scream "tough luck".

 

Does that mean he couldn't potentially help this squad right now? Absolutely not, but I have to go with John Bonnes on this one (for those of you who listen to Gleeman and the Geek, you probably already know where I'm going).  I believe the organization still thinks there's everyday potential in Aaron Hicks, and he got sent down to become a better left handed hitter.  He hasn't done that so far.

 

Aaron Hicks, (and likely any combination of roster moves) isn't going to turn this team into a contender in 2015, so playing the long game with him is fine in my opinion.  He would help the club, but as he is right now, he's not going to push the needle far.

[COtwin]

 

Have you looked at Aaron Hicks' splits?  Yes, he has an OPS of 1.024.  But he also is hitting for a .154 average lefthanded with a .522 OPS. 

 

So nothing has changed from the past two years when he was a failure! 

 

 

 So we keep Robinson with a BA of .100?  Or Schafer with a BA of .211?  Neither has taken a walk.  Strikeouts abound.  Hicks on his weak side has an OBP of .214.  Batting right is .600 OBP.  Most switch hitters have a stronger side.  Hicks is already better than either guy we have up here.  Better defense as well.  

 

And yes  they should have had a better option, but a lot of switch hitters need to grow in their switch hitting splits.  Look at Vargas last year  He hit .228 with an OBP of .287.  Hicks OBP was better than that on his weak side, and yet he is a failure and Vargas was a breakout success?

 

Not saying Hicks is nearly as good as Vargas at the plate, but the vitriol against Hicks is odd.  He wasn't as big a failure as some people think.

 

 

Hicks should not give up switch hitting yet.  Mauer is only hitting .200 against right handers this year, and I think many of us are actually thinking Mauer is already having a better year this year.

[clutterheart]

The team stinks but everyone predicted them to be bad.

So stay the course and don't panic.

Make sure the young kids improve. Make sure the team improves defensively.

Hope you trade some veterans in June and July.

Evaluate the youngsters in Aug and Sept.

Its a bad team. Enjoy your summer enjoy beautiful, target field and hope for a better 2016.

[kellyvance]

Playing the two hottest teams in MLB (Tigers 7-1 and Royals 7-0 ) will do that to you.

They brought a few meh pitchers to the pen and the Shafe and Robbie act is almost as dumb as the Kubes and Bartlett idea last year.

 

I understand wanting to get that extra year of control over our young guns by starting them in the minors but that idea is so old way of thinking. If the kids are good, pay em and if they prove themselves sign em long term. Forget setting up the ability to control and low ball future contracts. Put the best 9 on the field, and stop with the mediocre talent place holders already. It cheats the fans in so many ways. 

[TheLeviathan]

If Alex Meyer can't come up for control issues, there is no way in hell Hicks should be coming up with splits like that.

 

Let Hicks figure it out in AAA until June, the CF disaster shouldn't be fixed by rushing him for a third time.  It should've been fixed sometime in the last three years with someone else.

[Mike Sixel]

The bullpen should never have been filled with no options guys in the first place, so, 2 months ago......but you can't go back. Now is the time for action. Just move on from no upside, mediocre, old players now. Or not. The upside of not changing is that maybe after this year they will realize group think has set in, and it is time for new leadership

Edited April 15, 2015 by mike wants wins

[DutchFarmer]

 

"Just some context on Hicks here guys:

 

2015 splits:

vs. RHP: .154/.214/.308, 5Ks and 1 BB in 14 PAs

vs. LHP: .500/.600/1.250 3Ks and 2 BBs in 10 PAs"

 

Couldn't we platoon Hicks and Arcia then? Arcia plays against righties and Hicks against lefties.

 

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Deep down I think we all agree the CF answer is Buxton--he missed last year--so stay with Schafer until Buxton is ready later this year. Hicks has had his chances...

 

Give Arcia and Gibson long leashes--they could be part of the future.

 

Cut the older pitchers ASAP and bring up Meyer and Tonkin and later Burdi and Berrios. We look like a team that could lose 100 games--so let the kids take their lumps.

 

Think about bringing up Dougie Baseball to manage the kids

[Hrbowski]

We could always sign Carlos Quentin to play left.   

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is the roster that Ryan and Molitor felt gave them the best chance to win, so I expect no rash decisions or panicked comments from either of them.

 

I understand the frustration with Arcia. But he is the least of our problems. Arcia was a catalyst at times last year, which Gardy joked about at one point. His D is what it is. He will make the occasional impressive running catch or great throw, however. Hopefully someone has his ear and can steer him when necessary. Unless something is obviously wrong I hope they let Arcia play through it. He will hit eventually.

[stringer bell]

It is really early to decide whether someone is hitting or not. Hicks was under .200 until his three-hit day. All of a sudden, he is tearing up AAA because he had a good game? I was opposed to Hicks abandoning switch hitting and remain so. It is questionable he'll ever hit well against RH pitching as a left handed hitter. It is much more doubtful that he would ever thrive as solely a right hander.

 

Give the guys 'til the end of the month to show something. If failure continues, abandon a bad plan and go with the kids.

[Blackjack]

40 games. Thats normally the mantra and in this case it still applies (except for Pinto, he was injured and if he keeps hitting, he'll be up soon). 40 games gives the youngsters some time to build confididence, EARN A PROMOTION, and gives all the rejects on the roster an adequate shot to succeed.

[ericchri]

Thanks to the workday afternoon games to start the season I didn't watch any of those games, and when I had a chance on the weekend, I didn't even care to try. I have yet to watch a single minute of them. I can honestly say that hasn't happened in I don't even know how long. Probably those mid-late 90's teams. There's a few players I want to hear good things about, but a large chunk of the team is completely uninteresting to me.

 

I'll still follow the team by coming to this site every day and checking boxscores and the like, but I'm not sure if/when I'll bother to actually watch them this year. The only thing they can do to get me interested in this team is to gut all the no-upside veterans and get the kids up here. I'm probably not representative of most fans out there, necessarily, but I doubt I'm alone in this.

 

I've generally been patient/accepting with the team management decisions the last few years, quite likely to a fault. I think under "normal circumstances" I would be inclined to say let it ride until early May. I'm not sure what has happened this year can be called normal circumstances, though. My guess is there's a pretty big backlash coming soon if they don't start making changes in another week or so. I've lost my patience, I just don't understand the rationale anymore in not letting the younger guys get a chance. There's just too many players who are on that line where they need to be trying their hand in the majors to see if they can cut it to waste all this time with veterans who aren't actually making us better. It just gets worse the longer we delay as we have oodles of potential big leaguers at every level of the organization with barely any room to move up.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Call up the kids, there is nothing to wait around for any longer. Your typical Twins fan is sick to death hearing about guys like Buxton, Sano etc. With no payoff. Let's see what these guys can really do at the MLB level because this current plan is a train wreck on top of a car crash.

[spohner02]

 

Totally agreed, except for Gibson, who I think should be given a much longer leash.

Definitely. 

[Squirrel]

 

Sample size be damned, it seems flat-out strange that these players are putting up numbers in Triple-A after being eschewed for ill-equipped vets that look overmatched in the majors.

 

This. I find it so completely baffling that both Ryan and Molitor saw the route they took as the better route. These two are among the best of baseball minds and yet do this. While I've always been a proponent of those in charge don't need to tell us every little detail of their plan, in this case, man, I think they owe us some kind of an explanation at this point. While it's no secret I haven't exactly been pleased that Ryan still has a job here, nor was Molitor my first choice for manager, I always give the benefit of the doubt because honestly, I don't know much in comparison. But something has to change. We deserve better than this. And I think the sooner the better. If there aren't some moves by the end of the month and some kind of acknowledgement of errant thinking, there is way more wrong than I've ever thought.

[chopper0080]

What is funny is that for all of my critique of the Twins front office, and their roster construction, making a full flip just makes them look worse.  Incompetence is just as bad ignorance.  Either they were lying that the young players weren't ready, or they aren't, and this would just be another kneejerk reaction doomed for failure.

 

If it is me, and it isn't, you just keep trotting out awful baseball until your young players force their way up.  Yes, you are going to lose fans, but you made that choice in the offseason when you assembled this mess.  If Hicks is better than what we have, move him up.  If not, don't.  If there are better RPs bring them up, but if not, don't. 

 

This is the sort of flip flopping that has caused us to make no progress in a rebuild process that is 4 years in.  Make a plan.  Stick with the plan.  See how it plays out.  If that means we aren't competitive until 2017 and Terry Ryan gets fired...oh well.  That can happen when you back the prospect train.

[Rosterman]

Would the prospects be better or worse. Well, you can probably say NOT ANY WORSE!

 

Personally, I have felt Arcia needs more time at AAA and should be on a shuttle back-and-forth, back-and-forth. But...you have no one else to play out there. Really, you don't. The Twins needed to sign one more offensive player in the off-season, someone who could play the corners, maybe first base. A Chris Parmelee that deserved a $6-87-8 million salary.

 

We lost our #1 starter. Now Hughes has to face the #1 from another team. Nolasco, well, no one knows. I have never been a total Gibson fan. I would've traded him this off-season if he had value to anyone. He may have had his most value ever in 2014. He has to be better than a Blackburn or a Slowey, but sometimes I wonder if he really is.

 

Bring up the young guys, at some point, but what point. 

 

Here's another question. Let's put Robinson and Staufer and Herrmann and Schafer and Boyer in the minors, at Rochester. Would they be doing their thing at a plus-AAA level? Is the difference in play that much different?

 

April is a do-or-die month for the Twins, lots of games against their own division. The front office has to be sweating if they can sell all those plastic cups full of Bloody Mary mix and day-old pizza for $19 before the pizza really goes bad, kinda like the team on the field you might say.

 

Two Questions!

 

What should the Twins do to make you, a member of the Twins blog-o-sphere,more excited about the team that you will spend money to watch them in person, buy things labeled "Twins" and say good things about them on a day-to-day basis?

 

What should the Twins do to excite the common fan, the one that has a spare $30-50 in their pocket and have to decide between an evening live with the Twins, a dinner and bar-hop with friends, a visit to the Saints? How do you get them to watch you on television in the least. What do you do to make them talk favorably about the team, rather than drive by the new Vikings stadium and have high hopes for the football team.

 

Us ahrdcore Twins fans will never go away. We will fume, but still watch. But right now, the Brand is suffering BigTime!

[KGB]

 

Playing the two hottest teams in MLB (Tigers 7-1 and Royals 7-0 ) will do that to you.

 

Unless playing the Twins is the reason for the hot start. The White Sox are not off to a hot start and beat the Twins 2 out of 3.

[Kwak]

The top two prospects had a wasted 2014 due to injury. They will spend all 2015 to try to accomplish what was expected in 2014. Combine that with "The Kris Bryant Syndrome" and we should not expect  to see them in a Twins uniform until the third week of 2016.

Relief pitchers have the best chance of "getting here" this season due to need and the plethora of candidates in the minors. Those that have already been in the majors have the next priority--with the following caveats, two months of consistently high performance in the minors and not being an IFer (sorry boys, those jobs are filled).

There is room in the rotation, but the same two-months will be required.  But, I expect a quick hook (two weeks) if results are poor--they can return later in 2015. I only expect one promotion to the rotation at a time.  There are guaranteed contracts in force, even if posters don't like them!