Does Terry Ryan have what it takes to lead the Twins in 2015?

[jimmer]

 

4 years ago the Twins were coming off a division title with much of the same roster and aiming at competing again in 2011.  No one could predict the amount of games lost to injuries  that year.  If you are going to whine about the re-building process at least at max use 3 years.  This team was not rebuilding in 2011, hell for the most part they weren't rebuilding until after the 2012 season.

It's not whining, it's called discussing the team's woes.

 

The 4 years plus one week refers to poor baseball being played.  Cause it's been that long.  I didn't say the rebuilding process has been going on that long.  I wasn't even talking about the rebuilding process.

 

As far as the rebuilding argument you just threw in there, I think I've been pretty consistent on that. There's a thread called:' When Is It Time To Take Action?' my response was, ' About two years ago, at least.  When an injury plagued season was followed up by a really bad season.'

 

That quote pretty is right in line with you saying rebuilding didn't start till after 2012. Now, it should have started earlier, it SHOULD have started after 2011 because 2011 was going to be a down year even without injuries and the team was getting old. But the team, like you, just blamed injuries and decided to hope the team would rebound.

 

In any event, am I not acknowledging the injury riddled 2011 there? It was definitely a huge reason for our record, but hardly the only reason. I predicted we'd go 79-83 that season in my preseason pick before 2011 due to losing our middle IFs, jettisoning a good chunk of our bullpen, and regression by the rotation and Thome.

 

This is after I had nailed the 2010 record during my preseason prediction for 2010.

[chopper0080]

 

4 years ago the Twins were coming off a division title with much of the same roster and aiming at competing again in 2011.  No one could predict the amount of games lost to injuries  that year.  If you are going to whine about the re-building process at least at max use 3 years.  This team was not rebuilding in 2011, hell for the most part they weren't rebuilding until after the 2012 season.  

I agree the expectations in 2011 were high at the start of the season, but once the writing was on the wall, the Twins needed to be self aware enough to start the process.  They weren't, which has led to four consecutive 90 loss seasons.  The front office was either ignorant of their situation or the moves they made to correct it were proof of their incompetence, your choice, but neither is an acceptable excuse for losing 383 games over the past four seasons.

[jimmer]

 

I agree the expectations in 2011 were high at the start of the season, but once the writing was on the wall, the Twins needed to be self aware enough to start the process.  They weren't, which has led to four consecutive 90 loss seasons.  The front office was either ignorant of their situation or the moves they made to correct it were proof of their incompetence, your choice, but neither is an acceptable excuse for losing 383 games over the past four seasons.

When we lost our starting MIs and jettisoned a good chunk of our bullpen, it was not hard to look at those loses, along with expecting regression by the rotation and Thome, to see the team was going to have a down year.  The injuries made it worse, but I doubt we're competing for the division even if we had normal MLB team health. It's like the team said MAN we killed the division, we can get away with losing some guys and still be competitive in the division. 

[Minniman]

 

 

 

 

Hunter was an okay signing, for marketing, to play the outfield, to maybe DH if needs be. But you didn't need to stop there. Hell, I would've been happy with the return of Cuddyer.

 

 

 

I did not like the Hunter signing at all. His best years are behind him offensively, and his defense is a liability. $10 Million for that? This is for a player who willingly left the Twins for greener fields?

 

The Twins need some bats, but they need up and coming players rather than guys that used to be somebody on the Twins roster. $10 million could have brought in a better player.

[tobi0040]

I have reservations about Terry in this era.  He openly questions defensive metrics and what we see on the field is just horrible defense night in and night out.  An additional error and/or 1-4 plays that could have been made and weren't. 

 

Good teams win 90 games and bad teams win 66-70, so we are only talking about a 20-24 game difference. Those plays matter.

 

What will be telling to me is how long it takes for two of Rosario, Buxton, or Hicks (if he continues to hit) to be inserted in the OF.  This desperately needs to happen.

 

I think the Twins can be criticized left and right for things we did or did not do over the last four years.   But one thing that never really gets discussed is luck.  You have at least four things that have happened in the last year.  Nolasco to me is clearly hurt, we give up 18 fewer runs last year if he was just at his career average.  He was counted on and supposed to be healthy.   Ervin was counted on, most people were supportive of this deal. And to have your best two prospects knocking on the door and basically miss the entire season, plus Rosario with the 50 games.  Last year could have been much better at least.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure. Right now, and for the past couple of years, my answer has been no, I think it is time to clean house......but I'm not the owner, nor do I have access to all the information they and Terry do. But, given the info I have, he'd be gone.

 

the list of really bad moves outweighs the list of good moves, and the record speaks for itself. The disdain (that's how it come across to me) for math and science, well, I have no tolerance for that in any part of life......

[bird]

 

This kind of gets to my point a little, of why are these guys still a level below? I realize it would have been moving them quickly to bring them up already, but honestly there is no way they could be worse than the guys we picked up from the scrap heap and through in the bullpen to start this season. Reed and Burdi have real upside and real value right now. I don't see the value, especially with pitchers, in having them use up a ton of their bullets in the minors.

 

This week, the guys you're thinking of as scrap heap players, Stauffer, Graham, et al, would probably do a bit better against a MLB lineup than the most promising arms that people are discussing. Burdi, Reed, and Chargois have not exactly been dominating...yet. I think we get into the habit when someone falters on the big club of getting mesmerized by readings on a radar gun or a few minor league stats and then we assume things. I can't count the number of commenters on two hands that skewered the Twins for blocking Meyer in AAA to start the season. And after two starts, he's thrown 190 pitches, only half for strikes, has walked over a batter per inning, and has an ERA 8+. And now I'm waiting for comments skewering Ryan for screwing up the guy, and for more comments skewering him for making a lousy trade in the first place.

 

The Ryan I see is flawed. Because I believe his job is really hard, and because on balance I see more accomplishments than failings despite the four-year record which is due to additional factors besides Ryan's performance, I wouldn't replace him right now. But I get it, he's the logical scapegoat.

[Mike Sixel]

He is in charge of putting the players on the field.......how long would you give him to fix the product? This isn't scapegoating, this is his job. And yes, he traded for Meyer. He did.

[jimmer]

 

He is in charge of putting the players on the field.......how long would you give him to fix the product? This isn't scapegoating, this is his job. And yes, he traded for Meyer. He did.

How long did it take him the first time around"?  Was it six or seven seasons?

[chopper0080]

 

This week, the guys you're thinking of as scrap heap players, Stauffer, Graham, et al, would probably do a bit better against a MLB lineup than the most promising arms that people are discussing. Burdi, Reed, and Chargois have not exactly been dominating...yet. I think we get into the habit when someone falters on the big club of getting mesmerized by readings on a radar gun or a few minor league stats and then we assume things. I can't count the number of commenters on two hands that skewered the Twins for blocking Meyer in AAA to start the season. And after two starts, he's thrown 190 pitches, only half for strikes, has walked over a batter per inning, and has an ERA 8+. And now I'm waiting for comments skewering Ryan for screwing up the guy, and for more comments skewering him for making a lousy trade in the first place.

 

The Ryan I see is flawed. Because I believe his job is really hard, and because on balance I see more accomplishments than failings despite the four-year record which is due to additional factors besides Ryan's performance, I wouldn't replace him right now. But I get it, he's the logical scapegoat.

I don't believe Ryan should get blame for Meyer's lack of development, but I do believe he is the only person who deserves blame for it being a bad trade, because if Meyer doesn't pan out, it was.

 

I don't believe there is much more for Meyer to learn at AAA.  He isn't a really young prospect, and he has had some success there.  Bring him to the majors, put him in the pen, and get him some exposure to MLB hitters.  If he tanks, he tanks.  If he is ok, then he is ok.  But a power RP is way better than wasting innings in AAA searching for control he may never develop.

[Mike Sixel]

 

How long did it take him the first time around"?  Was it six or seven seasons?

 

If I was an owner, that would be too long to not have an embarrassing record (and worse, an embarrassing lack of fundamentals). But, I'm not the owner of this team, probably thankfully for everyone .....

[jokin]

 

I agree the expectations in 2011 were high at the start of the season, but once the writing was on the wall, the Twins needed to be self aware enough to start the process.  They weren't, which has led to four consecutive 90 loss seasons.  The front office was either ignorant of their situation or the moves they made to correct it were proof of their incompetence, your choice, but neither is an acceptable excuse for losing 383 games over the past four seasons.

 

I disagree. They should have known in ST 2011 that they were  in big trouble, they even admitted between the lines that they had made a colossal error in jettisoning Hardy for Nishioka, and then optioning their new "co-closer" Jim Hoey to Rochester.  Re-upping Matt Capps and signing Phil Dumatrait to "round out' the bullpen. Other than that, they had delayed fixing Joe Mauer's problems immediately going into the offseason.  He showed no signs of being ready to play in February or March, and of course, the "bilateral leg weakness" announcement was made in mid-April.

 

Once the season progressed, it appeared that the club had grown old and creaky overnight.  Aggressive action needed to be taken by mid-season to change the direction of the club (as you so aptly noted), but Smith, and likely the corporate Twins culture of inertia were woefully short of being up to the task at hand.  

 

Solution?  Bring back more of the past culture- a decade of "rebuild", Twins 90s style.   (Yes, in Terry Ryan's own words, his proudest moment as a GM, was getting the rebuild underway by trading away Scott Erickson for legendary Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee).

[jokin]

 

I don't believe Ryan should get blame for Meyer's lack of development, but I do believe he is the only person who deserves blame for it being a bad trade, because if Meyer doesn't pan out, it was.

 

 

 

 I agree with your second paragraph, but if it turns out to be a bad trade, in addition to that blame on Ryan, the blame for Meyer's lack of development ends up falling to Ryan, as well.  Despite the club's love of pursuing tall pitching prospects, how many have they developed into competent major leaguers?

[tobi0040]

 

I don't believe Ryan should get blame for Meyer's lack of development, but I do believe he is the only person who deserves blame for it being a bad trade, because if Meyer doesn't pan out, it was.

 

I don't believe there is much more for Meyer to learn at AAA.  He isn't a really young prospect, and he has had some success there.  Bring him to the majors, put him in the pen, and get him some exposure to MLB hitters.  If he tanks, he tanks.  If he is ok, then he is ok.  But a power RP is way better than wasting innings in AAA searching for control he may never develop.

 

I don't like the logic that if Meyer fails, it was a bad trade.

 

The market for centerfielders was hot and we are still not good and Denard is 31 (and we would likely not have extended him past his contract).  So you attempt and add a guy via trade that you can't get on the open market (ace upside). Meyer was a top 30-40 prospect

 

 

I want my GM making this deal all day long.  If he does it five times you get an ace under control 2-3 times. That is worth it.

[bird]

 

I agree the expectations in 2011 were high at the start of the season, but once the writing was on the wall, the Twins needed to be self aware enough to start the process.  They weren't, which has led to four consecutive 90 loss seasons.  The front office was either ignorant of their situation or the moves they made to correct it were proof of their incompetence, your choice, but neither is an acceptable excuse for losing 383 games over the past four seasons.

 

Your viewpoint that the Twin's and Ryan's reaction to the 2011 collapse was ignorance and/or incompetence are a common and understandable conclusion. I don't think it was either. Granted, the road since then includes mistakes and bad decisions. It also has Ryan's aggravating imprint on it: conservative, deliberate, risk-averse, half-measures, etc. I can see the argument for firing him (although the whole saber metrics theme hardly enters into it for me). But I cut him slack because he started the cleanup process in 2012 with limited resources in all three key asset categories upon which the turnaround could take place. He lacked tradable MLB assets, he lacked minor league assets to use for either trade or promotion, and he lacked the kind of FA budget that would have been required given the paucity in the other two categories. Like it or not, Ryan's strategic options were limited for all practical purposes to replenishing the minor league assets. Very few GM's have pulled off a rebuild based of FA spending and been able to sustain a level of excellence. I think the Twins and Ryan recognize this. And from where I'm sitting, the strategy they have pursued, while imperfect and painful for fans, is on plan and only off schedule due to injuries to Buxton and Sano.

[jimmer]

 

 

I want my GM making this deal all day long.  If he does it five times you get an ace under control 2-3 times. That is worth it.

Do 40-60% of top 30-40 pitching prospects work out to be at Ace level? Seems high.

[Mike Sixel]

Why can he spend money now, but not 2 years ago? The budget is much higher, right? If part of the argument was he couldn't spend to be better in 2012 or 2013, why does he have the resources now, when ticket sales are worse?

 

You are correct, imo, the half-measures are the firable offense for me. Going half way rarely works well, or quickly, ime. Quit buying bad, mediocre players in bulk, and buy a great player or two. Would you rather have Nolasco and Santana, or an Elite pitcher and May?

[bird]

 

 I agree with your second paragraph, but if it turns out to be a bad trade, in addition to that blame on Ryan, the blame for Meyer's lack of development ends up falling to Ryan, as well.  Despite the club's love of pursuing tall pitching prospects, how many have they developed into competent major leaguers?

 

 

I'm sure glad you don't sit on my board of directors.

 

At the time of he trade, most every expert I recall labelled it a good trade, did they not? Perhaps you were one of the experts who didn't like the trade, and for that you get a nice big pat on the fanny. 

 

But, there is such a thing as a good decision that ends up with a bad result. And we don't have results yet when it comes to Meyer. 

[jimmer]

 

I'm sure glad you don't sit on my board of directors.

 

At the time of he trade, most every expert I recall labelled it a good trade, did they not? Perhaps you were one of the experts who didn't like the trade, and for that you get a nice big pat on the fanny. 

 

But, there is such a thing as a good decision that ends up with a bad result. And we don't have results yet when it comes to Meyer. 

I think fanny patting is against TD policy ;-)

[SwainZag]

 

Why can he spend money now, but not 2 years ago? The budget is much higher, right? If part of the argument was he couldn't spend to be better in 2012 or 2013, why does he have the resources now, when ticket sales are worse?

 

You are correct, imo, the half-measures are the firable offense for me. Going half way rarely works well, or quickly, ime. Quit buying bad, mediocre players in bulk, and buy a great player or two. Would you rather have Nolasco and Santana, or an Elite pitcher and May?

 

Nolasco and Santana were signed in different years.  It's not really viable to say you would rather have 1 $25M pitcher over the 2 $10-13M pitchers.  Neither Nolasco or Santana were bad, medicore players before coming to the Twins either.

[bird]

 

Why can he spend money now, but not 2 years ago? The budget is much higher, right? If part of the argument was he couldn't spend to be better in 2012 or 2013, why does he have the resources now, when ticket sales are worse?

 

You are correct, imo, the half-measures are the firable offense for me. Going half way rarely works well, or quickly, ime. Quit buying bad, mediocre players in bulk, and buy a great player or two. Would you rather have Nolasco and Santana, or an Elite pitcher and May?

 

 

Spending choices are dependent on a lot of factors, but probably the set answer is regarding the timing of expensive and risky contracts. If spending $100M changes you from a 65 win to 75 win team, maybe it makes sense to delay that kind of risk until the stars are better aligned. 

 

I think your opinion about Ryan is perfectly understandable.

[jokin]

 

I'm sure glad you don't sit on my board of directors.

 

At the time of he trade, most every expert I recall labelled it a good trade, did they not? Perhaps you were one of the experts who didn't like the trade, and for that you get a nice big pat on the fanny. 

 

But, there is such a thing as a good decision that ends up with a bad result. And we don't have results yet when it comes to Meyer. 

 

 

 

That's why the qualifier of "if" is always used by me in the case of Meyer.  And no, the decision-making is not "good", even judged strictly in a vacuum.   The Twins knew what they were getting when they traded for him, Meyer hasn't had a catastrophic injury, the onus is on the Twins to develop, by all accounts a Top 25-35 prospect with triple digit velocity, to major league readiness. Failure to do everything necessary to insure this outcome still counts as failure overall.

 

I think fanny patting is against TD policy ;-)

 

I'd be happy if the Twins resorted more often to a few kicks in the rear.

[jokin]

 

Spending choices are dependent on a lot of factors, but probably the set answer is regarding the timing of expensive and risky contracts. If spending $100M changes you from a 65 win to 75 win team, maybe it makes sense to delay that kind of risk until the stars are better aligned. 

 

I think your opinion about Ryan is perfectly understandable.

 

Ryan was inadvertently exposed on the spending issue by Pohlad ,over two consecutive offseasons, practically shaming him into increasing the payroll, and in the process, giving lie to the previous SOP concerning the signing of FAs in that Terry was supposedly unable to "give his money away."

[markos]

 

I'm sure glad you don't sit on my board of directors.

 

At the time of he trade, most every expert I recall labelled it a good trade, did they not? Perhaps you were one of the experts who didn't like the trade, and for that you get a nice big pat on the fanny. 

 

But, there is such a thing as a good decision that ends up with a bad result. And we don't have results yet when it comes to Meyer. 

Not every expert thought it was a good trade. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/: 

 

To be honest, I’m a bit surprised at the price at which Minnesota was willing to sell Span off. I get that they’re rebuilding and they feel like Ben Revere can handle center field in the short term, but Span is the kind of player they could have kept as they rebuilt. They had him under contract for his age 29-31 seasons at a grand total of $21 million, and only the first two years and $12 million was guaranteed. 3/21 for a +3 win player in his prime is a significant value, and the Twins sold him off for an A-ball pitching prospect who may end up in relief.

 

I don’t mean to downplay Meyer’s value as a prospect, as any 6’9 kid who throws in the upper 90s and throws a wipeout slider is a legitimately interesting return, but no one is yet certain that he’s going to stick in the rotation long term. He had a successful debut season between the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues, but he was a 22-year-old college arm facing batters with significantly less experience. He’s yet to get to Double-A, and the questions about his mechanics haven’t yet been entirely answered. There’s some real upside here, but there’s also a chance that the command regresses and he ends up as a closer rather than a starter.

 

Meyer’s a bit of a lottery ticket. Legitimate upside, legitimate concerns about his future role, and at least another year of development before he’s ready to contribute in Minnesota. Meyer’s a Top 100 prospect, and if you think he’ll stick as a starter, probably a Top 50 guy. The Twins got a real talent back in return for Span, but it’s a talent with too many question marks to be the piece they’re getting back in return for a three win player under team control at a fraction of his market price.

 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I still choose to be optimistic.  The Nolasco and Santana situations were exactly why we added depth to the rotation in the last two years.  While no one would have predicted these two developments so early in the year, having Mays and Pelfrey in the wings was precisely the insurance policy that the team was investing in based on the likelihood of injury or other development. 

 

Now we have to see how May and Pelfrey perform.   Can they secure the job or will they need to relent when Nolasco and/or Santana come back.  

 

The same is true with the bullpen.  Thielbar, Tonkin, etc. sit in the minors waiting for their opportunity, knowing that they will eventuallyhave their shot with the big club.   It's a long season. . . 

 

Because we have options, albeit modest ones, I remain optimistic.   

 

The same is true with the outfield.  Hicks and Rosario, when they are ready, can take the next step. For now, we simply need to play out the Schaefer/Robinson experiment for a bit more.   If it doesn't pan out, I think we would agree to give Hicks and Rosario a shot. 

 

 

[jimmer]

 

Not every expert thought it was a good trade. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/: 

Whoever wrote that needs to find birdwatcher for his fanny pat :-)

Those fangraphs guys are nuts anyway, especially that Cameron guy depending on numbers and logic... 

[jokin]

 

Not every expert thought it was a good trade. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-steal-denard-span-from-twins/: 

 

Exactly, there were many, many of us at the time of the trade that questioned why Meyer was the only component in the trade  ( I actually posted much of this quote on TD the day after the trade).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Spending choices are dependent on a lot of factors, but probably the set answer is regarding the timing of expensive and risky contracts. If spending $100M changes you from a 65 win to 75 win team, maybe it makes sense to delay that kind of risk until the stars are better aligned. 

 

I think your opinion about Ryan is perfectly understandable.

 

And I think your's is also, we just don't agree.

 

but yes, I can see the timing differences argument.

 

i'll keep saying it, TR has forgotten more, and remembers more, about baseball than I could ever hope to know. He seems like a very good human being. I just don't want him as the GM of this team any more. And, it feels a bit mean spirited to type that, but this is a thread about it.

[h2oface]

 

4 years ago the Twins were coming off a division title with much of the same roster and aiming at competing again in 2011.  No one could predict the amount of games lost to injuries  that year.  If you are going to whine about the re-building process at least at max use 3 years.  This team was not rebuilding in 2011, hell for the most part they weren't rebuilding until after the 2012 season.  

I contend (since 2010) they have never been in the rebuilding process. That is the problem.

[Target Field of Dreams]

 

This week, the guys you're thinking of as scrap heap players, Stauffer, Graham, et al, would probably do a bit better against a MLB lineup than the most promising arms that people are discussing. Burdi, Reed, and Chargois have not exactly been dominating...yet. I think we get into the habit when someone falters on the big club of getting mesmerized by readings on a radar gun or a few minor league stats and then we assume things. I can't count the number of commenters on two hands that skewered the Twins for blocking Meyer in AAA to start the season. And after two starts, he's thrown 190 pitches, only half for strikes, has walked over a batter per inning, and has an ERA 8+. And now I'm waiting for comments skewering Ryan for screwing up the guy, and for more comments skewering him for making a lousy trade in the first place.

 

The Ryan I see is flawed. Because I believe his job is really hard, and because on balance I see more accomplishments than failings despite the four-year record which is due to additional factors besides Ryan's performance, I wouldn't replace him right now. But I get it, he's the logical scapegoat.

 

I may have replied too hastily when I threw out Reed and Burdi's names. They are just 2 of the promising arms we have in the minors and many thought there was a chance Burdi could make it to the MLB squad by last september due to him being a really good college closer when we drafted him.

 

But even if you throw those 2 out...there are many other options in AAA that would be better than Boyer, Stauffer and Thompson, so the point is still valid. 

 

Any 3 of the below would be better, but Ryan and/or Molitor chose to go the safe veteran route once again when finalizing the roster.

 

A.J. Achter

Stephen Pryor

Lester Oliveros

Michael Tonkin

Ran Pressly

Caleb Thielbar

Logan Darnell

 

and there is still absolutely no valid excuse for the outfielders they chose to start the season with. If the argument is that none of our minor leaguers were ready, then they should have spent $10 million dollars on a legit defensive outfielder, rather than 39 year old Torii Hunter. Torii was one of my favorite Twins when he was on the team before, but at this point in his career he simply isn't the player we needed to help us win games in 2015.