Does Terry Ryan have what it takes to lead the Twins in 2015?

[Target Field of Dreams]

While I generally have been optimistic that this season the Twins would make a marked improvement from the last few years and at least finish the year with a record approaching respectability, after the first 7 games, my optimism is waning. I know 7 games is a small sample size, and if the circumstances that got us here were not as they are I would not be so concerned. But when I look at the 2015 Twins and their struggles, I see roster mismanagement as the biggest problem leading to the piling up of Twins Losses.

 

At the end of the 2014 season, 2 opportunities were clear.

1. Our pitching was as a whole brutal

2. Our outfield Defense was awful.

 

How did Terry Ryan address these:

-Pitching: Signed Ervin Santana to bolster starting rotation as well as picked up Rule 5 draft pick JR Graham, veteran reliever Tim Stauffer and journeyman veteran Blaine Boyer.

- Defense: Signed an aging Torii Hunter who last year was widely rated as the worst starting right fielder in all of baseball.

 

While Terry Ryan can't be blamed for the Ervin Santana steroid issue, he is squarely responsible for the bullpen additions as well as making our outfield defense worse.

 

Much of my optimism for this season stemmed from the fact that the Twins have an amazing group of young prospects ready to burst onto the big league squad and provide some much needed talent, but all of the roster moves that were made did nothing but block that young talent from getting a chance to come up. And the result? Our Major league roster struggles while our minor league teams flourish. It is nice to see them succeed, but they only exist because the Twins do.

 

In short, I am concerned Terry Ryan isn't the right guy for a rebuilding team. He is great at finding veteran pieces to get value from to augment an already good roster, but I have seen little in his tenure that says he knows how to move prospects along at the right pace and no when to bring young guys up to learn and see what we have in them. 

 

In my opinion we should be bringing up Rosario, Hicks and later Buxton as soon as possible, removing Boyer, Stauffer and Thompson at minimum from bullpen ASAP and replacing them with any of the myriad of great pitching prospects we have stuck in the minors. We need to see what we have in those guys, in order to set us up for potential respectability in 2016 and beyond. I hate already talking like that 7 games in, but it is what I see as potential reality with this dreadful squad. Who knows...the young guys may actually make 2015 a little more respectable as well. And if not, we they at least have potential to get better.

 

 

[Rosterman]

For 2015.

 

Terry Ryan hired Paul Molitor, who had experience with the Twins organization, both major and minor league. An intelligent and hard-working guy, yes, he deserved to be manager.

 

Could he have: Gone outside the organization? Did interview some people. Promoted someone young and inexperienced, in a way? Jake Mauer and Doug Mientkiewicz are still in the future mix, but Dougie may be wooed elsewhere by as early as next season.

 

Reinforce the starting rotation. He added Santana. He extended Hughes. Both expensive. He didn't release Milone. Pelfrey was given the opportunity to come back. There two pitchers in the wings. Many more down the line. Plus, some replacement-value arms if push comes to shove. Grade A

 

Who would have predicted that Nolasco would pitch thru the spring and go down once the season started. Who knew that Ervin was on the verge of getting a suspension. We have to hope that Hughes will be better than average for most of his contract. Milone and Pelfrey are arms.

 

The bullpen. It still seems to lack that dreaded missile thrower. You look at the arms wavering in Rochester: Achter, Tonkin, Pressley, Thielbar, plus the couple removed from the 40-man in Pryor and Oliveros (who can throw heat). Plus you have Logan Darnell there who could be a lefty in the pen if nothing else. Instead, you invested in some arms and signed a Rule 5 guy.

 

Which brings us to the Outfield. The infield is set. It is even set if you would move Santana (who didn't play at all in the outfield in spring, okay (out and put in Escobar, making Nunez the backup and allowing you to find another bench bat. ) You easily had $3-5 million to buy someone who could play the outfield better than investing those monies in Schafer and Robinson and Stauffer and Boyer. You now have an extra $6-7 million in saving rom Ervin to get an outfielder, any outfielder, to strengthen the outfield if you choose. You could also just run out Hicks and now Rosario is you don't mind someone hitting .225 and learning the ropes even further. Hunter was an okay signing, for marketing, to play the outfield, to maybe DH if needs be. But you didn't need to stop there. Hell, I would've been happy with the return of Cuddyer.

 

It's tough being a General Manager. Ryan spent money. He cobbled together a team, signing guys in case the prospects to be weren't quite ready to come to the majors and hoping the low-end signings would be a buffer. The main job was to get rotation guys who would consistently get you towards the 7th inning. On paper, he succeeded. He needed to rebuild a bullpen. He has a lot of arms, but if your closer shuts down, who closes. If Fein becomes Burton 2015, what happens. Last year's line-up (albeit with Santana in the outfield and Escobar at short) looked pretty darn good with Hunter being an upgrade over Willingham or Parmlee, even in the glove market.

 

On paper, te division looked pretty even, maybe a run or two difference a game being the deciding factor and it could flip and flop all season long.

 

We have to give the team a chance. It ain't a pretty team right now. I don't have enough fingers for all the guys who WON'T be here in 2016. But that will change as the season goes on.

 

We just have to be patient. Wait and see.

[mudcat14]

If nothing else, it seems the path is clear for whoever is performing well in the minors to get a chance to get their feet wet this season.  May is already getting his shot in the rotation.  I wouldn't be at all surprised if Meyer, Rogers, Wheeler & Berrios aren't all told to keep a bag packed and ready.  In the 'pen, it's just a matter of seeing who starts out hot.  There are numerous hard-throwers in AA-AAA who are just a phone call away.  The next 2-4 weeks could be as brutal as the past week, but I doubt they let it linger much past early May before they start making changes. 

 

[zchrz]

TR was good at being a small market gm playing in a small market division, he is a good dumpster diver, and doesn't normally get fleeced in trades.  However his free agency track record/ player evaluation is bad.  He avoids risk to an extreme degree and only targets players that fit his model.  His model and the chances of it succeeding today are stuck back in the metrodome. 

 

Its time for TR to be replaced and it needs to be fresh blood, with a modern analytical approach, from outside the organization.  The AL central isn't the floundering division it once was and the Twins are not going to compete in it by penny pinching and dumpster diving. 

[h2oface]

No. Absolutely not. That ship has sailed years ago. This team is the result of the continuing presence of Terry Ryan. I hope that next year there is a new out of organization GM and Doug Mientkiewicz is managing the young wave. Molitor is not the manager of the future. I am close to Molitor and Ryan's ages. I can see this. Why can't they?

[h2oface]

 

......On paper, te [sic] division looked pretty even, maybe a run or two difference a game being the deciding factor and it could flip and flop all season long. ........ We just have to be patient. Wait and see.

I must have been looking a way different paper.

[Thrylos]

 

The bullpen. It still seems to lack that dreaded missile thrower. You look at the arms wavering in Rochester: Achter, Tonkin, Pressley, Thielbar, plus the couple removed from the 40-man in Pryor and Oliveros (who can throw heat). Plus you have Logan Darnell there who could be a lefty in the pen if nothing else.

 

Please name a single name of the above who would be on a contender's 25-man roster.  Name one that Miguel Cabrera would have to think twice about, while staying at the batter's box.  (At least after what JR Graham did the last couple series, people have to think when facing him.)  The Twins have good arms, but they are a level below (Burdi, Reed) or misused in the rotation (Pelfrey.) Nothing at AAA now other than a guy with top of the rotation potential (Meyer.)

[Kwak]

 

No. Absolutely not. That ship has sailed years ago. This team is the result of the continuing presence of Terry Ryan. I hope that next year there is a new out of organization GM and Doug Mientkiewicz is managing the young wave. Molitor is not the manager of the future. I am close to Molitor and Ryan's ages. I can see this. Why can't they?

The continuing presence of virtually the entire Front Office, not just Ryan. It reads like a cult, and it takes years of vetting to gain trust in the organization. One assumes the mindset of the group--or out you go.  Until there is a clean sweep, I can't see much change in results.

[blindeke]

 

The continuing presence of virtually the entire Front Office, not just Ryan. It reads like a cult, and it takes years of vetting to gain trust in the organization. One assumes the mindset of the group--or out you go.  Until there is a clean sweep, I can't see much change in results.

sadly, i mostly agree with this; the Twins do not seem like an organization that encourages free thinking or diverse outlooks. it'll be a difficult culture to change.

[jctwins]

I think Terry Ryan may have been a good GM when Tom Kelly was willing to piss anyone off that got in his way of teaching a kid how to play baseball. Gardy certainly didn't have that attitude, and time will tell if Molitor is willing to mow down people that disagree with him. 

 

Additionally, the game is so much bigger and complex in so many ways than it was during TR's first rodeo as well.

[jimmer]

 

I must have been looking a way different paper.

And I was looking at your paper.  Didn't you find your paper in the non-fiction section? :-)

[alskntwnsfn]

This teams bullpen would be appropriate grounds, even if we weren't coming off 4 years of 90 plus losses.

 

Anybody out there looked up the other teams who have been this bad for so long? I remember looking into it awhile ago pertaining to Gardy. It was a short list and one of them owned the team (Connie Mack).

[jimmer]

'Terry Ryan hired Paul Molitor, who had experience with the Twins organization, both major and minor league. An intelligent and hard-working guy, yes, he deserved to be manager.'

 

Hard to agree that anyone DESERVES to manage a major league ball club when that person has never managed ANY baseball team.  Some work out, as least in the short run, on teams already packed with talent at the major league level, but on a team like ours?

[alskntwnsfn]

The only hope for true change in the front office is a historically bad season. Maybe this is the year?

 

It would be one thing of we had a tiny payroll like Houston, but we don't. Just too many bad investments, Hughes notwithstanding.

[Kwak]

 

'Terry Ryan hired Paul Molitor, who had experience with the Twins organization, both major and minor league. An intelligent and hard-working guy, yes, he deserved to be manager.'

 

Hard to agree that anyone DESERVES to manage a major league ball club when that person has never managed ANY baseball team.  Some work out, as least in the short run, on teams already packed with talent at the major league level, but on a team like ours?

There isn't a manager present or past that could win with this bunch. The Twins put themselves in a weak position about "hitting strategy" with their treatment of Plouffe and Dozier. One can hardly blame Arcia (or anyone else) who swings for fences on every pitch when they have such prime examples (Dozier and Plouffe) right in front of their noses. Then for good measure toss in Ortiz (BOS) and any of the major HR hitters and their too often low BAVG--but very high salaries. People can post about defense (and OBP) until their fingers fall off, but they see people with high HR totals, indifferent (or worse!) defense, and run-of-the mill OBP but with huge salaries. Money shouts, but lectures get ignored. 

[jimmer]

 

There isn't a manager present or past that could win with this bunch. The Twins put themselves in a weak position about "hitting strategy" with their treatment of Plouffe and Dozier. One can hardly blame Arcia (or anyone else) who swings for fences on every pitch when they have such prime examples (Dozier and Plouffe) right in front of their noses. Then for good measure toss in Ortiz (BOS) and any of the major HR hitters and their too often low BAVG--but very high salaries. People can post about defense (and OBP) until their fingers fall off, but they see people with high HR totals, indifferent (or worse!) defense, and run-of-the mill OBP but with huge salaries. Money shouts, but lectures get ignored. 

I'm not blaming Molitor, I just take issue with the idea that he DESERVED the managerial position for the Twins.

[Platoon]

I am in the camp that thinks Ryan is a good GM for a veteran laden team. He will be able To find you that fill in guy to get you over the hump. In fact he is so fond of veterans he keeps signing them to a non contemder. The Hunter signing wasn't dumb, it was absurd. And signing Dozier for 4 years and not getting anything in return was suspect. This is a insular hidebound orginisation that puts up with mediocricy. I doubt unless Jim Pohlad pulls the trigger it will change.

[Platoon]

Just think, what if the Twins with their 90+ losses last year, actually were playing over their collective heads? .

[Target Field of Dreams]

 

The Twins have good arms, but they are a level below (Burdi, Reed) or misused in the rotation (Pelfrey.) Nothing at AAA now other than a guy with top of the rotation potential (Meyer.)

 

This kind of gets to my point a little, of why are these guys still a level below? I realize it would have been moving them quickly to bring them up already, but honestly there is no way they could be worse than the guys we picked up from the scrap heap and through in the bullpen to start this season. Reed and Burdi have real upside and real value right now. I don't see the value, especially with pitchers, in having them use up a ton of their bullets in the minors.

[Mr. Patient]

 

I am in the camp that thinks Ryan is a good GM for a veteran laden team. He will be able To find you that fill in guy to get you over the hump. In fact he is so fond of veterans he keeps signing them to a non contemder. The Hunter signing wasn't dumb, it was absurd. And signing Dozier for 4 years and not getting anything in return was suspect. This is a insular hidebound orginisation that puts up with mediocricy. I doubt unless Jim Pohlad pulls the trigger it will change.

 

I agree completely with your last few statements, but I am not sure that Ryan was ever a good GM for a veteran-laden team. He was, at the start, terrific at evaluating young talent, particularly in other people's organizations (Johan, Liriano, etc.). And he did a good job getting our own young talent up to the majors where they could succeed (Hunter, Koskie, Jones, etc.). But for so many years, when we were on the cusp of greatness, and just needed one or two real impact players to put us over the top, we got Livan Hernandez or Sidney Ponson or Mike Lamb or Rondell White or some other zero-upside guy.

 

We needed more of a risk-taker then, and we certainly need one now, when we have nothing more to lose. ETA: And for sure, someone more comfortable with advanced analytics.

 

[SwainZag]

 

This kind of gets to my point a little, of why are these guys still a level below? I realize it would have been moving them quickly to bring them up already, but honestly there is no way they could be worse than the guys we picked up from the scrap heap and through in the bullpen to start this season. Reed and Burdi have real upside and real value right now. I don't see the value, especially with pitchers, in having them use up a ton of their bullets in the minors.

 

Because they were both drafted last season, both of them have thrown less than 35 total innings and before the handful this year nothing was above A ball?  They are both 22 and have big upsides, but what's the rush to get them up to the big leagues as soon as possible just because......they couldn't be any worse?  You have to assume if they succeed in AA and AAA their path to the big leagues could come very soon.  Would the team be that much better with a 22 year old with virtually no experience learning on the fly to face professional hitters in the bullpen rather than a guy like Boyer right now?

[Rosterman]

The Twins in 2015.

 

Somehow, the thought of cutting payroll and say we are rebuilding for the future was NOT something that they could do if they wanted to sell tickets. People would complain that they didn't spend money. So, they spent money. We can argue how they spent it. Nickel and dime many an expense. But they did spend. But now we can argue that Terry Ryan felt he was putting together a roster that would be competitive in baseball. Improve the rotation. Add an outfielder (but they needed two - unless you wanted Santana back in center). As spring training closed, the Twins did notice that the bullpen was a mess.

 

Are any of the pitchers at AAA worthy of making a 25-man roster for another team. Probably not. But are they as good as the names on the current roster, probably so. And there just might more of an upside. I still see the majority of them being with the organization in 2016 (even the two not on the 40-man). But you don't know if that is a fact unless you let them pitch in the majors. Considering the waiver wire prospects and the current state of the bullpen, many will get a chance. Like players on the current roster (I count 11 that won't be here in 2016), it is time for them to play like they have never played before if they want a spot in the Twins organization, or in baseball period.

 

Is Molitor deserving of being the Twins manager? Like politics, organizations have pecking orders. Did the Twins really interview a viable experienced manager candidate? I would have gone a totally different way, but I'm not the general manager. Molitor IS deserving of getting a shot to be the manager. He paid his dues. He knows the organization. At this point in time, the Twins still desired (it seems) someone who will continue with the mission of the team, whatever that is.

 

If you look at the Twins roster circa before spring training, the rotation was solid with ample reserves. Last year, the offense was pretty darn decent (yes, Escobar was at short and Santana in center). You would hope that Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto would perform equal to last year...hope being the magic word. the bullpen was being rebuilt and the number of names to draw from proved promising. You look at the division. Detroit was figured to be worse. No one felt Kansas City would repeat. The White Sox made strides and changes. And Cleveland could be a dark horse. Playing each other, you could say that this is a division in which you would have a lot of 5-4, 5-3 games amongst each other. Just one mistake by either team would win or lose the game.

 

If you were going to rank the Twins chances of making the playoffs, you would probably say nill, just because of the defense, especially in the outfield. Now, today, we shudder because we don't have the strength to battle against the first three starters of any team, let alone two, at the moment. Something went wrong with the bullpen. There is no bench.

 

Terry Ryan spent money. Did he put a competitive team on the field, or was it a quick fix illusion that fell apart immediately? What can the Twins do to create excitement for the team as it approaches summer. How do you get fans in the stands to sell those bloody Mary's with pizza for $19 a crack.

 

If the minor leagues get off to a fast start, that can help. But when you talk Twins to the majority of people who buy tickets, it is not minor league reports that they read or hear about, it is what happens day-to-day. You can promote the prospects, but they have to produce. Will they, don't know. Will they be hurt playing on a non-contender with no fans in the stands. Probably not.

 

Now it is the time for the front office to have a strategy, which involves major league roster time, 40-man roster moves, the need to put players in a major league setting sooner rather than later, or do they do jsut as good winning and learning in the minors, at least this season, as coming to the majors.

 

It ain't easy being a general manager, folks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[RollingOaks]

I have no issue right now with Burdi and Reed in AA. Burdi has had a heck of a time in AA, with 1.2 IP he's allowed 5 runs and walked 6. He needs time and it's way too early to say he doesnt deserve a shot later in the year. I do have an issue with Boyer taking a spot from Tonkin, Pressley or any other reliever in AAA you can make a case for. I thought we overpayed for Ervin Santana, but he's a pitcher who can eat up innings and I thought that would help our bullpen. I did have an issue giving up a second round pick to Atlanta. However, with Meyer and May not developing as fast as the Twins had hoped for, it kinda forced their hand.

 

I wanted the Twins to take a risk and get rid of Terry Ryan and clean out the front office. Obviously this is a huge undertaking, but it was the perfect time. With the coaching posistion open, the new GM might of selected Molitor after all, but we'lll never know. As much as I like Molitor, I don't think we HAD to hire him.

 

I remember Terry Ryan giving an interview last year and he was talking about how they wanted to implement more analytics into their evaulation process. While I was glad he was admitting the need to change, it scared me that he hadn't thought of this before. Analytics aren't the be all end all but I think they are part of the puzzle.

[jimmer]

Paying his dues would have started with coaching/managing in the minors and working his way up.  A good example of a guy paying his dues to become manager would be HOFer Ryne Sandberg.

 

Being a bench coach back in the late 90s/early 00's and then again in 2014 isn't exactly paying his dues. He got the job because he's a local guy, a fan favorite and a company guy. (along with being a smart baseball guy, but there are loads of those smart guys out there who have actually managed at some level and/or spent a bunch of time on a ML coaching staff).

[brvama]

Ditto Rosterman. This season has just started and the mutiny is in full swing. It seems like this ship ran aground before it even pulled away from the pier. The news of Santana and shortly after of Nolasco certainly did not bring a boost to the confidence of this team. Plus they hit two hot teams in the first week. Not an excuse just an honest observation.

 

As I've stated in another post we need to have a little patience here. I do agree, have to believe, that the FO is going through all the scenarios to right the ship. It seems just a bit too simple to off load some of these players and then replace them with those that so far are just mostly promise.

 

Time is one of the most difficult things in life to master. When is it time to change or how long do we wait? It's a difficult balance and different for everyone. I would expect that by the end of April, just 2 more weeks, there will be some changes IF things aren't starting to straighten out by that time. But my guess is that many here will be disappointed because those changes won't be the "right" ones.

[chopper0080]

Ok, I will put on my tinfoil hat for this one.

 

1-Terry Ryan is a smart man and did not suddenly forget how to build a baseball team.  He may be behind on some things, but not 90 losses for four seasons bad.

 

2-Target field got built, and the team gets significant money from corporate seats and local media contracts.

 

3-Twins ownership is still the same family it was.

 

Terry Ryan is executing the plan that the owner and front office have agreed to.  The money is secure, the media deal is in place, and now all we have to do is sell hope.  So, the Twins are selling the prospect/farm system rebuild with one or two vet players added every year to appease though concerned about spending.  They hold onto any fringe vet signing that shows success so they can show they are trying to contend, and give the fans another reason to come to the park.  But, and I am certain of this, the Twins are willing to wait on their farm system, and are ok with whatever it produces.  I do not believe ownership is concerned with consistently being competitive as much as they are concerned with only spending if their prospects pan out and they are close to a title.  Regardless of what is said otherwise, I believe their actions reflect this plan/mindset the most accurately.

[jimmer]

For everyone who preaches patience....It hasn't been just one week.  It's been 4 seasons PLUS one week. And it's not like this roster is considerably different, from a starting player standpoint, than the one we had last season.  It's why some of us didn't foresee much, if any, improvement coming this season.  It's not like all of us who are complaining thought we'd be contenders this season and the results are just now making us be critical of the team.

[chopper0080]

 

For everyone who preaches patience....It hasn't been just one week.  It's been 4 seasons PLUS one week. And it's not like this roster is considerably different, from a starting player standpoint, than the one we had last season.  It's why some of us didn't foresee much, if any, improvement coming this season.  It's not like all of us who are complaining thought we'd be contenders this season and the results are just now making us be critical of the team.

Yeah, waiting on prospects is kind of like gambling your pay check every month.  It can work out, but the odds of it doing so aren't great, and you can't really expect folks to understand if it doesn't.

 

The entire front office responsible for the baseball product on the field deserves to be fired after this season, and anything short of that tells you how much the organization cares about winning.  It doesn't matter what competitive progressdevelopment is made, if the team loses 90 games again, everyone deserves to go.

[SwainZag]

 

For everyone who preaches patience....It hasn't been just one week.  It's been 4 seasons PLUS one week. And it's not like this roster is considerably different, from a starting player standpoint, than the one we had last season.  It's why some of us didn't foresee much, if any, improvement coming this season.  It's not like all of us who are complaining thought we'd be contenders this season and the results are just now making us be critical of the team.

 

4 years ago the Twins were coming off a division title with much of the same roster and aiming at competing again in 2011.  No one could predict the amount of games lost to injuries  that year.  If you are going to whine about the re-building process at least at max use 3 years.  This team was not rebuilding in 2011, hell for the most part they weren't rebuilding until after the 2012 season.  

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Somehow, the thought of cutting payroll and say we are rebuilding for the future was NOT something that they could do if they wanted to sell tickets. People would complain that they didn't spend money. So, they spent money.

 

 

Terry Ryan spent money. Did he put a competitive team on the field, or was it a quick fix illusion that fell apart immediately? What can the Twins do to create excitement for the team as it approaches summer. How do you get fans in the stands to sell those bloody Mary's with pizza for $19 a crack.

 

 

 

It ain't easy being a general manager, folks.

 

I argued for the front office to go young and not sign any long term contracts this offseason, and I wasn't the only one. 

 

Some people would complain about them not spending big, but if they're more concerned with filling the stands with a mirage of a product in 2015 than they are with filling the stands with a legit product in 2016 and into the future, than there is a serious issue with philosophy and this team is in trouble.  If Ryan was mandated to give out head shaking 4-year deals to aging pitchers, then the Pohlad's should come clean and say it wasn't his idea.  If it was his idea, than the attempt at a mirage product for 2015 should probably cost Ryan his job, because this just isn't acceptable as it's causing the true rebuilding effort huge problem.