How Much Patience?

[stringer bell]

The Twins are off to a dreadful 1-5 start and so far exactly one player has positively surprised--Tommy Milone.  The other four starters have ranged from pedestrian to awful, the bullpen has been putrid with few exceptions.  Outfield defense was expected to be bad and has met that low bar. It was flat-out embarrassing to see two easy catches missed in the same inning today.  Many hitters are off to slow starts, some with resumés (Hunter, Plouffe, Dozier) and others less so (Schafer, Arcia, Santana).  To be fair, the Twins' hitters have faced a bunch of All-Star starting pitchers and played all six games on the road, but they have looked feeble a lot more than they've looked promising.

 

My question is how long the Twins will continue to trot out guys like Boyer, Stauffer, and Pelfrey (with another large question mark next to Ricky Nolasco's name) and continue with Schafer being stretched in center field.  The long term answers remain in the Twins' farm system.  Do the Twins wait until May 1st, or the 4th of July?

 

Of course, it is possible that this is just a stretch of bad baseball that almost all teams go through.  I was in San Francisco last summer when the Giants were stinking it up and the hometown fans were ready to abandon a team that had won it all twice in the last four years and who would go on to win it all in 2014.

 

My humble opinion is that the Twins' flaws are pretty much real flaws and not just a rough patch.  They definitely need improved pitching and defense and their offense might make a move in the wrong direction this year.  If I were GM (and thank goodness I'm not!), a couple of bullpen guys would be one more bad appearance away from release or Rochester, Arcia would have a couple of weeks to get it together and the starters except for Hughes and Gibson would need to show something in their next few appearances. 

 

What should the timetable be for giving up on this year and going with the prospects?

 

 

[twinsnorth49]

 

The Twins are off to a dreadful 1-5 start and so far exactly one player has positively surprised--Tommy Milone.  The other four starters have ranged from pedestrian to awful, the bullpen has been putrid with few exceptions.  Outfield defense was expected to be bad and has met that low bar. It was flat-out embarrassing to see two easy catches missed in the same inning today.  Many hitters are off to slow starts, some with resumés (Hunter, Plouffe, Dozier) and others less so (Schafer, Arcia, Santana).  To be fair, the Twins' hitters have faced a bunch of All-Star starting pitchers and played all six games on the road, but they have looked feeble a lot more than they've looked promising.

 

My question is how long the Twins will continue to trot out guys like Boyer, Stauffer, and Pelfrey (with another large question mark next to Ricky Nolasco's name) and continue with Schafer being stretched in center field.  The long term answers remain in the Twins' farm system.  Do the Twins wait until May 1st, or the 4th of July?

 

Of course, it is possible that this is just a stretch of bad baseball that almost all teams go through.  I was in San Francisco last summer when the Giants were stinking it up and the hometown fans were ready to abandon a team that had won it all twice in the last four years and who would go on to win it all in 2014.

 

My humble opinion is that the Twins' flaws are pretty much real flaws and not just a rough patch.  They definitely need improved pitching and defense and their offense might make a move in the wrong direction this year.  If I were GM (and thank goodness I'm not!), a couple of bullpen guys would be one more bad appearance away from release or Rochester, Arcia would have a couple of weeks to get it together and the starters except for Hughes and Gibson would need to show something in their next few appearances. 

 

What should the timetable be for giving up on this year and going with the prospects?

More than 6 games......

 

If they keep playing at this disastrous rate (which they won't) I'd give it until the end of May.

 

They haven't even been home yet, yes it's been ugly but let's at least let them play in their own park first.

[jimmer]

It hasn't been 6 games, it's been 654 games.

 

But let's not act like we should have expected this season to be good to begin with and that this start is such a surprise.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, they are looking a lot worse than I thought they would but it's a bit early to draw lasting conclusions.  Some of the guys are just chairs on the titanic anyway until better players come up.

 

I think Billy Beane said it took two months to know what kind of club you've got.  So, even if we want to halve that, let's wait until May before we get too nuts. 

[DJSim22]

All I know is I can't stand the lack of defense and miss the old days when it was valued in the organization.

[Danchat]

The bats are going to heat up. Phil Hughes is going to pitch better. That's two things I'm sure are going to happen.

 

Let's not draw any conclusions yet. Let's wait a few more weeks before we do anything hasty.

[Physics Guy]

Boyer:    4 outings, runs given up in all four.    Not a good start.

[twinsnorth49]

 

It hasn't been 6 games, it's been 654 games.

 

But let's not act like we should have expected this season to be good to begin with and that this start is such a surprise.

Ok, but who's really counting anyway?  

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know....most of us, the experts, and the stats predicted the OF defense would be awful, and it is. Most predicted 70-75 wins, that's about what most would still think.

 

I think that many of the predictions made by many look pretty accurate right now. Do people expect anything different out of the OF defense or the bullpen? Does anyone think Pelfrey will be good? Who is surprised Santana isn't one of the best offensive players in the league? 

[twinsnorth49]

 

I don't know....most of us, the experts, and the stats predicted the OF defense would be awful, and it is. Most predicted 70-75 wins, that's about what most would still think.

 

I think that many of the predictions made by many look pretty accurate right now. Do people expect anything different out of the OF defense or the bullpen? Does anyone think Pelfrey will be good? Who is surprised Santana isn't one of the best offensive players in the league? 

Yeah, because that was said....

[Platoon]

Not only are they not hitting well, the AB"s are terrible. And that includes the more established regulars. I am not a big Plouffe fan, but he is better than this. As for the guy we just gave a 4 yr extension to. He is a fun second baseman to watch play. His base running has improved immensely. And when he comes to the conclusion that he is not really a HR hitter, he will be much better off. Right now he is seeing a lot of his favorite high fastballs, but they are seldom inside. A statistical quirk? Doubtful. As for "mentoring man", it's hard to mentor players a thousand miles away! And even harder when your are dragging a .118 avg about. But as aggravating as the play has been, I think you have to get 40 games under your belt. That does not mean that I think the team will be a contender, or even barely respectable, it just means that your personnel decisions will have a solid basis.

[Buford_T_Justice]

One week down, 25 to go. Pretty sure Hunter won't continue to hit .143 nor will Nunez stay at .667.

 

Boyer is having a rough start, but the Twins typically give veterans a longer leash...at least they used to. I think this will be a good test of the new Ryan/Molitor team. Do you stash him in the back of the bullpen and not use him? Give him another week? Another month? Or do you pull him in the office and give him a choice of Rochester or go home?

[bird]

Tom Kelly used to say it takes about six weeks to really know what you have. I have a feeling he'd need less than half that time with this bunch, and he wouldn't like what he saw.

 

The two physical errors yesterday came from the 24th and 25th players on the roster. Much of the bad relief work is coming from the last couple guys in that group.

 

What a terrible outfield! Like his reviled predecessor, Molitor has started infielders because his head case outfielder Arcia apparently needs some down time. At the plate. He's giving Hunter time off too. Personally, I'm hoping he gives Hunter a six-month furlough, because he looks bad. At the plate. And please, Mr. Rosario, be for real and set Rochester on fire. Schaefer is no fun to watch. In the field.

 

For me, this team won't be enough fun to watch until a few from the next wave come up, so I'll see you after the birds have all migrated through in late May. Except I'll watch May this afternoon.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, because that was said....

 

I have no idea what this reply means......all of the things I posted were obvious. I truly have no idea what this means.

[gil4]

 

Tom Kelly used to say it takes about six weeks to really know what you have. I have a feeling he'd need less than half that time with this bunch

Yep.  Sometimes the difference between winning and losing is subtle.  Sometimes it isn't.

[sorney]

I don't have much at all...

And it's not that I didn't expect it to be bad, but when it's bad, it's good to have youth learning and taking their lumps.  Having older players in there getting roughed up does nothing for me; actually, it just makes me apathetic.

 

[Rosterman]

I wonder, too, if Arcia would be better served with more time at Rochester. But, who takes his palce. Two other guys putting in time at Rochester who may/may not produce the same as Arcia?

 

The bullpen issues are magnified when you think that the Twins do have solutions at Rochester (two relievers, Thielbar and Pressly should be equally as incompetent as others on the roster, but HAVE proven to be okay in the bullpen). Two relievers were removed from the 40-man, who would offer some speed and excitement coming out of the bullpen (Oliveros and Pryor). But do youa dd them, or fast track Jones, Burdi, Reed et al.

 

The key is the rotation. They have to keep us in the game. Like Hughes did yesterday. Bad first inning, but kept the team in the game. But the offense failed. And the bullpen added to the woes.

 

I keep thinking line-up construction. Does Dozier need to bat 2nd. Where do you put Hunter. WHy does Mauer have to stay batting third. Do the Twins have a clean-up hitter. What IS the best role for Plouffe. At the least, let Hicks and Rosario be the centerfielders in training.

 

At what point do the Twins release their best hitter (Nunez) and bring up Fryer so Herrmann can play everyday!

 

 

[jimmer]

'At what point do the Twins release their best hitter (Nunez) and bring up Fryer so Herrmann can play everyday!'

 

Nunez is the Twins best hitter?  When did that happen? (that's a trick question) :-)

[huhguy]

twins are doing me  a favor...instead of paying attention to them..i can go about my business, its getting really close to shut down time

[Shane Wahl]

It's just no surprise. Boyer is not a mlb pitcher. Schafer is certainly not a starter. Stauffer should be ok, but something might be wrong? I have a long history here with say borderline suspension-worthy things about Mike Pelfrey the baseball player. I cannot fathom how on earth he is still pitching for this team.

 

If May can even provide a quality start today, I will be happy. 

[HitInAPinch]

I can live with the whole, "giving veterans more leash" thing.  But at some point, you run out of leash and then what?  Yeah, the wholesale changes that probably should have started a year or 2 ago...

[whydidnt]

I really don't have much patience for this group. If there was some youth that was learning on the job, I would say that we've got to wait to see what we have. This roster though is stuffed with veterans and is basically the same team that lost 90 games last year. Why would I expect things to be any different? Of course, they aren't going to lose 5 out of every 6, but there really isn't anything to be optimistic about. It's just not a very well built team.