Article: What To Look For From Nolasco

[Nick Nelson]

The first time I ever saw Ricky Nolasco pitch live was last March, when I was down in Ft. Myers covering spring training. In his first inning of work, the newly signed righty coughed up a whopping seven runs on six hits as the Mets drilled the ball all over the field.

 

That was Nolasco's second-to-last spring start -- akin to the third preseason game for an NFL team in terms of maximizing readiness for the season -- but I still put minimal stock into it, as with any exhibition outing. Nonetheless, the drubbing served as a prelude for a disastrous season in which opposing hitters batted .316 and slugged .505 against the righty, both career highs.Nolasco's struggles in 2014 were magnified by the fact that he was in the first of four years on a free agent contract that was, at the time, the largest in franchise history. A rebound was already going to be imperative to a turnaround for Minnesota's embattled starting corps, and with the fate that has befallen the new holder of the largest ever Twins free agent deal, Nolasco's improvement becomes all the more pivotal.

 

Now that Ervin Santana has been suspended for 80 games, Nolasco moves up to take his place in the rotation, and will start Wednesday in Detroit. Which early signs should we be looking for as we gauge what to expect from the 32-year-old in his second year as a Twin?

 

VELOCITY

 

The recipe for strikeouts isn't as simple as "more velocity = more missed bats," but for Nolasco that has been true. His average fastball speed topped out at 91.5 mph in 2009, the only year in his career that he has averaged more than a strikeout per inning. His lowest readings have come in 2012 (90.0) and 2014 (90.1), and those seasons have featured his two lowest swinging strike rates.

 

Not only was the fastball velocity down a bit last year, but he also posted the lowest marks for each of his secondary offerings. I'll be curiously watching the radar to see how many of Nolasco's heaters touch 93 or 94 mph this afternoon, and I'll be especially focused on where the breaking balls register. If his oft-used slider continues to flatten and sag toward the 70s, it won't bode well.

 

ATTACKING THE KNEES

 

Nolasco coughed up 22 homers in 27 starts last year, and for anyone who regularly watched him the culprit was obvious: way too many pitches left hanging up in the zone. His ground ball rate reached a career-high 46.6 percent in 2012 but has dropped in each of the last two years. He spoke in spring training about how important it is to him to work in the lower part of the zone and induce grounders, which was a struggle for him at times (he gave up a team-leading five homers in six Grapefruit starts). Can he keep Detroit's powerful lineup from elevating the ball?

 

DEFENSIVE PROWESS

 

Not so much from him, but more so from the players behind him. It'd be nice to see an uptick in strikeouts and grounders, as mentioned above, but realistically Nolasco is a guy who will allow substantial contact, and a fair number of flies and line drives. That puts pressure on the defenders -- particularly those in the outfield -- to make plays and help him out. If his batting average on balls in play is anywhere close to where it was last year (.351) he stands almost no chance of success. We need some signals that an alignment featuring Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter in the corners is going to be less damaging than many fear.

 

Even after the crushing development that took place just days before the start of the season, I still think there's a realistic chance for the Minnesota rotation to be decent, but the loss of Santana means that a drastic improvement from Nolasco is more of a necessity than a luxury.

 

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[Kwak]

I'm expecting to see very few "cutters" and many more curveballs than last year. I also believe that will yield more strikeouts, maybe a couple more HRs, but fewer runs overall--and more wins!

[jorgenswest]

Nolasco at his best has a dominant slider. His fast ball has never been good. Look for the dominance of the slider. If he doesn't find the slider this year, he is done.

 

There is a very good article written while he was successful with the Dodgers about his pitching backwards. He decreased his fastball use with them and increased the slider and curve ball. His pitch mix with the Twins went back to fastball dominant.

 

If his slider is missing bats and he uses it often, we will see the best of Nolasco.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Doesn't Suzuki call an inordinate amount of fastballs compared to other catchers? Wonder if there is a case for pairing Nolasco with Pinto (assuming he comes up in a couple of weeks)

[gocgo]

He's allowed 5 dingers in 6 games in ST?  and last year his ST forebode of the disastrous season ahead?  Why would we expect different results this year?

 

Don't mean to be Debbie Downer here but let's be realistic.  Knowing that what you have to do (increase velocity, keep the ball down, etc.) and having your 32 year old body (which is old for pitchers) actually do it, are two different things.

 

I don't see a bright season ahead for Ricky or the Twins.

[HitInAPinch]

Sorry I can't say I'd wouldn't expect to see a vast improvement our of Ricky.  History speaks for itself. 

[sorney]

 

Sorry I can't say I'd wouldn't expect to see a vast improvement our of Ricky.  History speaks for itself. 

 

Holy double negative batman!!  I kid, because I care.  Anyway, I kinda expect Ricky to suck.  Not that I want him to, I just don't have a good feeling about it.

[Kwak]

 

Doesn't Suzuki call an inordinate amount of fastballs compared to other catchers? Wonder if there is a case for pairing Nolasco with Pinto (assuming he comes up in a couple of weeks)

The Twins call lots of fastballs--PtoC , remember?

[SweetOne69]

 

Doesn't Suzuki call an inordinate amount of fastballs compared to other catchers? Wonder if there is a case for pairing Nolasco with Pinto (assuming he comes up in a couple of weeks)

 

The catcher only suggests what to throw, it is up to the pitcher to decide what he wants to throw.

[Mike Sixel]

He needs to pitch backward, or whatever it is called. If he doesn't, we can expect last year.....

[blairpaul715]

Wow, Ricky looks svelt, looks in alot better shape than last year to me.

[troyhobbs]

Looks like he's picking up where he left off last season.  I commend the Twins on the uncharacteristic spending on pitching the past couple years but the early signs don't indicate they got the right guys. So much for all that spring optimism but on the bright side we may see some prospects before many of us lose interest in the season. That's different.

[laloesch]

In all seriousness not looking good so far.    Ricky has been blasted out of today's game.    Four walks, six hits and six runs in three innings.    BRUTAL! 

 

Stauffer relieves Nolasco and gives up two more walks and two more runs over 1.2 innings.   Wow, only two games into the season and the pitching has been horrible.

[troyhobbs]

 

In all seriousness not looking good so far.    Ricky has been blasted out of today's game.    Four walks, six hits and six runs in three innings.    BRUTAL! 

 

Stauffer relieves Nolasco and gives up two more walks and two more runs over 1.2 innings.   Wow, only two games into the season and the pitching has been horrible.

Hitting isn't far behind...granted they've faced a couple good arms.

[DaveW]

I look forward to having my evenings and sometimes afternoons free every 5 days when he is pitching!

[Danchat]

 

I look forward to having my evenings and sometimes afternoons free every 5 days when he is pitching!

It's the same for me, except I also have to tune out when Pelfrey's pitching.

[jimmer]

 

It's the same for me, except I also have to tune out when Pelfrey's pitching.

and Milone's

[youridol_jonny]

How about a replacement?

[Mike Sixel]

I really meant to type this before yesterday.......

 

"him carrying bags marked "Rochester""......

[mori0189]

Well now it looks like a sore elbow.  MRI maybe TJ surgery.  Prospect time, what a waste of money.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Nick,

 

I didn't have time to read your article, but I am curious, did we find what we were looking for in Nolasco yesterday?