Article: Ervin Santana Suspended 80 Games For Steroids

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I am not sure why they paid a 32 year old pitcher coming off a season with a 92+ ERA tens of millions. It does not really matter how much he is paid. It doesn't change his projections. He was projected for 0.7 WAR by ZIPS and 1.5 by steamer. Cut that in half. The new fifth starter is taking his starts. If you don't want to call him the fifth starter call him something else. If the starters replacing him are replacement level, the cost in wins will be minimal because Santana skill level starts below league average. Assuming the starts are below replacement level, the cost might be two wins.

If you are going to win 72 games, you might chose to risk winning 65 by going young and developing that talent rather than buying decline phase talent to get to 72. That would be floating a rotation of team control guys like Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Milone, Berrios...

agreed that his pay is irrelevant to his skill/ability/statistical probability of being good. Pay is relevant to expectations and most of the articles on TD and across Twins territory called Santana the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in the rotation, it was obvious that the consensus was that Santana was going to be better than replacement level. Founded in level headed statistical analysis? Probably not, but that's not the point, the point is, if the GM thinks highly enough of Santana to hand him that kind of salary, there's going to be expectations of living up to it.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Bottom line: As much as it sucks Santana is gone half the season, I find the roster construction by far the most perplexing/disappointing/aggravating/exasperating point heading into spring.

Hopefully the roster looks significantly better May 1st... Or maybe Ryan and Molitor have some sort of diabolical master plan regarding their decisions this spring?

Everything's just a big let down. In February optimism and expectations were high (probably artificially, but still). But now this is by far the least excited I've been for the season to start in years.

ditto

[USAFChief]

Can't we go back to the dang 70's when Doc Ellis' PED was LCD?

FYI, my TV is an LCD, AFAIK.

[h2oface]

 

ChiTownTwinsFan, on 03 Apr 2015 - 8:38 PM, said:
There were others. But I don't recall who.

 

Cuddy, Dustan Mohr for a couple. 

?? Is this a declaration the you are claiming that Michael Cuddyer and Dustan Mohr admitted that they were taking PED's while they were with the Twins? Or that you are just claiming that they were? 

Edited April 4, 2015 by h2oface

[Halsey Hall]

Did I say they admitted it?

[shs_59]

People for GOD sakes quit acting all shocked Pelfrey is the guy replacing Santana!

 

Really? Who'd you think it was going to be...?

 

Jose, Alex or Trevor are not ready. (may because of the flu)

 

I hope Pelf has close to a career year also, to shut you ppl up...are you even real twins fans?

[shs_59]

If you were real fans, you'd know one of Millone or Pelfrey will be traded as soon as possible once they show they have actual value........If* may or meyer or whoever is actually ready.

Getting a grossman type for one of those pitchers IS entirely logical for BOTH Sides.

 

IF i was gm i'd flip danny santana for Micah Johnson

 

sell off Dozier and A.B. Walker and Jose Berrios for chris carter and Carlos Correa and go watch the AA team play....

 

if i was reading what the heck you guys were all saying. **

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are plenty of "real" fans on the board. Please refrain from trying to start some bizarre competition about who's the superest super fan of them all.

[Willihammer]

Yeah the competition for superest superfan was settled a long time ago anyways.
http://crossfitsweatshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/tumblr_lnb6ekldHW1qe2fnco1_5001.gif

[Thrylos]

 

I wonder what it smelled like.

 

Team Spirit.

[Thrylos]

 

So you think they should release Vargas too?

 

Apples with Pineapples.  Vargas tested positive for what the Williamses did, Phentermine, which is in weight control "supplements" that are legitimately sold OTC in this country.  He did not test positive for synthetic testosterone that has doping as  its only use.

Edited April 4, 2015 by Thrylos

[Thrylos]

 

There was someone else ... earlier ... who admitted to using well after, and took a roster spot from someone else. I can't remember who it was but it was a pitcher. Maybe in the 90s or earlier in the 2000s? It was before testing in the 'turn a blind eye' era.

 

There were a couple named in the Mitchell Report:  Dan Naulty, and the current Chattanooga Lookouts Hitting Coach

[savvyspy]

On the bright side, Terry Ryan didn't recall Eric Fryer.

[laloesch]

If you were real fans, you'd know one of Millone or Pelfrey will be traded as soon as possible once they show they have actual value........If* may or meyer or whoever is actually ready.Getting a grossman type for one of those pitchers IS entirely logical for BOTH Sides.IF i was gm i'd flip danny santana for Micah Johnsonsell off Dozier and A.B. Walker and Jose Berrios for chris carter and Carlos Correa and go watch the AA team play....if i was reading what the heck you guys were all saying. **

 

 

Exactly. The idea should be that they are offloaded if they have respectable starts to the season. I will be Ticked off though if either strings together 5 or 6 horrendous starts and the twins do nothing like call up may or meyer.

[Hrbowski]

I wish that Dan & Cory would be announcing the Lookouts game instead of the Twins, they will be more exciting.

[tobi0040]

Can anyone explain why pelfrey was picked over May?

 

The twins know may is better and I thought we threw in the towel on pelfrey in the rotation.

[Danchat]

 

Can anyone explain why pelfrey was picked over May?

The twins know may is better and I thought we threw in the towel on pelfrey in the rotation.

Excuse #1: Trevor May isn't stretched out enough to start a MLB game. (neither is Pelfrey - he's been pitching in the bullpen!)

 

Excuse #2: Pelfrey out-pitched May during Spring Training. 

 

Excuse #3 Terry Ryan wants Pelfrey to feel better after his demotion to the bullpen, so why not make Pelfrey happy again?

 

Excuse #4: Pelfrey is over 30 years old and has a pulse so that makes him better than May.

 

 

Pick your excuse. Whichever one(s) you pick, May is still the better option.

[jokin]

 

Apples with Pineapples.  Vargas tested positive for what the Williamses did, Phentermine, which is in weight control "supplements" that are legitimately sold OTC in this country.  He did not test positive for synthetic testosterone that has doping as  its only use.

 

Thanks for posting, that post you responded to bothered me a lot.  A lot of PEDs are on the WADA no-no list, but they aren't all created equal.

[h2oface]

 

Did I say they admitted it?

 

I am sorry, I couldn't tell. That is why I was curious and asking you to clarify. The conversation with ChiTownTwinsFan started with him saying, other than Rincon, there was someone else......:

 

ChiTownTwinsFan, on 03 Apr 2015 - 8:38 PM, said:
There were others. But I don't recall who.

 

Then he also added a little bit later....... 

 

ChiTownTwinsFan, on 03 April 2015 - 08:53 PM

"There was someone else ... earlier ... who admitted to using well after, and took a roster spot from someone else. I can't remember who it was but it was a pitcher. Maybe in the 90s or earlier in the 2000s? It was before testing in the 'turn a blind eye' era.

 

and then....

 

ChiTownTwinsFan, on 03 April 2015 - 09:15 PM

This was before that, before testing. He wasn't caught, but he admitted to it after his career was done."

 

Then you posted with the first post in quotes:

 

Halsey Hall, on 04 Apr 2015 - 06:05 AM, said:

----------ChiTownTwinsFan, on 03 Apr 2015 - 8:38 PM, said:
----------There were others. But I don't recall who.
Cuddy, Dustan Mohr for a couple.

 

....... and followed it with 

 

Halsey Hall, on 04 Apr 2015 - 06:16 AM, said:
Dan Naulty was the player who admitted using years after he retired.

 

spycake comfirmed, and added matt lawton was busted after leaving the Twins............. 

so........

I had never heard of Cuddyer or Mohr either having admitted to, or even been suspected of or included in any rumors of using PED's. I am am asking a legitimate question (two questions, actually). I am surely not trying to say what you said, but as the conversation included talk of "admitting to later", I was asking what you are saying so I don't misunderstand:

 

h2oface, on 04 Apr 2015 - 01:10 PM, said:

"?? Is this a declaration that you are claiming that Michael Cuddyer and Dustan Mohr admitted that they were taking PED's while they were with the Twins? Or that you are just claiming that they were?"

 

which brings me to the answer that this post started with, which wasn't an answer to either question, but another question in answer to two questions:

 

Halsey Hall, on 04 Apr 2015 - 1:51 PM, said:
Did I say they admitted it?

 

To give you an answer........ I guess not, from this question answer to one of my questions. But I am not trying to say you did...... I am just asking for a clarification, if you would like to offer one. As I have never heard of Cuddyer ever being implicated of using PED's, it is news to me, and I don't want to misunderstand. I would also love to know, if it is true, how and when Cuddyer was implicated. Thanks.

 

Edited April 5, 2015 by h2oface

[Halsey Hall]

Sorry about the confusion.  They both showed up one spring looking much bigger thru the chest.  I noticed, as did the clubies and grounds keepers.  It was obvious, as that kind of change just doesn't happen over the off season. 

[DaveW]

To imply the twins should have "known" about this is pretty silly. It's not like he suddenly gained 3 MPh on his fastball or put on 20 pounds of muscle. Anything less then literally going through his garbage (though that probably wouldn't even matter) isn't going to give them any info on his using this PED.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sorry about the confusion.  They both showed up one spring looking much bigger thru the chest.  I noticed, as did the clubies and grounds keepers.  It was obvious, as that kind of change just doesn't happen over the off season.

 

It could happen over a full season (or more) without you noticing it until you see him after a long stretch.

 

I blame weights.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No, nobody "knew" Santana was doping. But he was (and remains) a walking red flag, for all the reasons laid out here and elsewhere.

[twinsnorth49]

With Santana pitching with (and signed for 4 years with) a partially torn UCL for the last 6 plus years....... the PED might be why he has lasted this long.

My thoughts exactly, what kind of pitcher can we expect Santana to be sans steroids?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Matt Garza is the same ticking time bomb yet continues to be a good starter.
 
I wasn't entirely sold on the Santana signing when it happened but now that he's been busted for steroids, I'm not going to ex postfacto my argument to make me look better and the Twins worse.

 

Ervin Santana has been an MLB player for a decade. First, he should know better than to take something that might contain banned substances (provided he didn't do it on purpose) and second, there's no friggin' way the Twins are expected to know that a guy who has been in the league for a decade and has never been busted for PEDs is, in actuality, a PED risk.

 

There is one person to blame for this Ervin Santana situation:

 

ERVIN SANTANA.

 

This forum and some of the posters on it drive me up the wall some days. There are plenty of reasons to be frustrated with the front office right now, you don't need to go manufacture reasons that involve Terry Ryan being a psychic, soothsayer, and reader of &^%$ing tea leaves.

 

Argh blargh. I'm glad I'm leaving the continent for two weeks tomorrow.

[jorgenswest]

Mike Pelfrey chose the more difficult path of battling back from a torn UCL. Coming back from Tommy John and then losing another year to injury and fighting back again. It is time to get behind the guy who is fighting back to save his career without the help of steroids.

[formerly33]

Maybe Ervin Santana wanted to get caught using PED's so he could remain undefeated longer than Hughes.

Edited April 5, 2015 by always33

[Twodogs]

 

There were others. But I don't recall who.

Boone?

[jokin]

 

To imply the twins should have "known" about this is pretty silly. It's not like he suddenly gained 3 MPh on his fastball or put on 20 pounds of muscle. Anything less then literally going through his garbage (though that probably wouldn't even matter) isn't going to give them any info on his using this PED.

 

Matt Garza is the same ticking time bomb yet continues to be a good starter.
 
I wasn't entirely sold on the Santana signing when it happened but now that he's been busted for steroids, I'm not going to ex postfacto my argument to make me look better and the Twins worse.

 

Ervin Santana has been an MLB player for a decade. First, he should know better than to take something that might contain banned substances (provided he didn't do it on purpose) and second, there's no friggin' way the Twins are expected to know that a guy who has been in the league for a decade and has never been busted for PEDs is, in actuality, a PED risk.

 

There is one person to blame for this Ervin Santana situation:

 

ERVIN SANTANA.

 

This forum and some of the posters on it drive me up the wall some days. There are plenty of reasons to be frustrated with the front office right now, you don't need to go manufacture reasons that involve Terry Ryan being a psychic, soothsayer, and reader of &^%$ing tea leaves.

 

Argh blargh. I'm glad I'm leaving the continent for two weeks tomorrow.

 

Well then, I guess Nick Nelson's article must strike you both as silly and driving you up a wall, as well.     Nick asks a lot of questions, admittedly ex post facto, but still, questions that might have been more fleshed out when a team is considering its largest ever FA signing and committing at least $55M.  First, you obviously haven't read up on the beneficial effects of stanozolol- this is easily obtainable with one mouse click- and doesn't involve outsized freak-muscles developed overnight.  "No friggin way"?  Nick certainly shows a way that the deal might have been questioned, and how the pieces of suspicion were there...   and even though it's all admittedly speculation, there were and are red flags all over this deal.  --- Due to his delicate elbow situation, the pressures and temptations to prolong his career in any way possible over the last two seasons- pitching on the thin margin of here-today/gone tomorrow one-year deals- must have been enormous.  

 

 

 

Much of the best detective work in getting to the truth in cases is greatly aided by going through people's garbage.  And the "detectives" employing this technique runs the gamut- from archaeologists to insurance investigators to workmen's comp lawyers to law enforcement officers to private investigators- 

"Why Garbage Can Be A Goldmine"     

 

 

Hiring an investigative firm to do thorough background checks is a pretty inexpensive means at ensuring the viability of a $55M deal.  I'm sure the Twins did something along these lines, obviously it wasn't thorough enough if Santana has been a user in years past, and given the current CBA agreement, there's practically nothing they could have done about it if he only started PED usage after he signed the new contract- but that seems unlikely.

 

Yes, this is on Santana, and it appears he, and likely, his agent, perpetrated a fraud on the Twins.  But given the bilker's built-in advantages in negotiating guaranteed contracts despite the fraud, the onus is even more on the Twins to avoid being suckered.

[Twodogs]

When looking at ERA+, he was a below average starter last year and has been a below average starter two of the last three seasons.

 

When looking at WAR, he averaged around a 2.8 WAR the last two seasons but if you go back another year he's been below a 2 WAR pitcher on average over the last three seasons. ZiPS projected him to have a WAR under 1 this year before the suspension.

 

Not sure how much we are really losing by having him gone for 1/2 a season. His best attribute is that he normally pitches a lot of innings, which is valuable but more valuable when you are really good.

Most valuable when you have an awful bullpen and need to go directly to the set up and closer to get wins. 8 innings a game didn't mean much for the Royals last year with that stud bullpen.