Article: Ervin Santana Suspended 80 Games For Steroids

[nicksaviking]

And players a route to accuse the team trainers of sabotage.

Well they already all claim they don't know how it got in their system so the excuses would be the same.

[TheLeviathan]

Well they already all claim they don't know how it got in their system so the excuses would be the same.

True, but it would then wrap the team more in the mess than they currently are.

[nicksaviking]

True, but it would then wrap the team more in the mess than they currently are.

Well let's just hope if contracts become voidable, teams would handle themselves as classy as the Angels are now with the Josh Hamilton situation.

[SwainZag]

1. Whoever mentioned a straight release is insane.  It benefits the Twins zero and Santana 100%.  He is going to get paid $55M regardless if he pitches for the Twins or not, why in the heck would they pay him and not let him pitch?

 

2. May has pitched a total of 10 innings this Spring, his longest outing being 33 pitches. The staff has come out and said he isn't stretched out enough.  Adding Pelfrey to the rotation right now does not ensure he gets 36 starts this year.  Why would they insert May, let him throw 50-70-90 pitches and dilute the bullpen right off the bat when he can be doing that in Rochester?  It makes zero sense.  I'd love to see Meyer but it's pretty evident his control needs to improve.  He walked 7 in 5.2 spring innings including 4 in his last start.  What's the benefit of running him out there right away?  What's the real harm in letting him start a few AAA games at least?  

 

3.  Is every thread on this board going to turn into a front office bashing session?  I really hope not.  The season starts in 2 days and there is already a post labeled: Disarray, Disappointment and Doom.  I love this board but when every, even slightly positive post is bashed into the ground by 4-5 negative posters, man it's going to be tough to keep coming back every day.

[Jerr]

Geesh what great news to hear! I wish he could just be let go and over with. 

Doing things the Twins way????? Feeling more like the snake-bitten Timberwolves

 

Well, off to get my Grand-Daughter for a real game of Basketball...Harlem Globetrotters

And again, this site is where to go for ALLLLLL Twins info, thanks again to the founders of it

[Brock Beauchamp]

Putting Mike Pelfrey in the rotation might be the right call from an intellectual standpoint - though I'm far from convinced that's the case - but from a fan emotional standpoint, I never wanted to see Mike Pelfrey make another start for the Twins and I certainly didn't want to see him make starts in April.

[jorgenswest]

Pelfrey has battled back through two very difficult injuries. He has an opportunity that may be his last. The Twins need some good stories this year. I am hoping his hard work to battle through injuries towards a successful season is one of those good stories. Go Pelf!

[Otto von Ballpark]

2. May has pitched a total of 10 innings this Spring, his longest outing being 33 pitches.

May faced 22 batters in his last spring start. If he did that on 33 pitches, he's the most efficient pitcher ever.

 

Also when they decided the 5th starter spot a week ago, May had 10.2 IP, Pelfrey 13.2, and Milone 14. I believe May and Milone had also pitched in minor league games that didn't count against those stats.

[USAFChief]

I'm not convinced the "May wasn't stretched out" rationale has much merit.

 

He last started a ST game on March 27th. The fifth starter spot first comes up for the Twins on April 11th. That's 15 days, enough time for one more ST start, and a then simulated game in the bullpen, both with 5 days rest in between, and then 5 days rest until his first regular start. Adding 20 pitches per start gets him to 90, which is probably about what you can expect from most starters the first time or two through the rotation.

 

Besides, when did Pelfrey last start in ST? Won't he need a couple starts to get "stretched out" again?

 

EDIT: that should read 4 days rest between, not five. Four days rest is the normal between starts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Besides, when did Pelfrey last start in ST? Won't he need a couple starts to get "stretched out" again?

This is the sticking point for me. Pelfrey wasn't fully stretched out, either.

 

I suspect this was a "make Mike Pelfrey happy" decision, not a "good baseball" decision and that irritates the hell out of me.

[stringer bell]

I wrote a long time ago that this spring Pelfrey is both fully healthy and fully recovered from TJ surgery and I don't think that is really a redundancy.  He has spent two wasted years with the Twins and he could be a serviceable starter, perhaps as much as a #3.  The problem is that so much of the team is populated with low-upside long shots.  Some may pan out, but the net gain is small especially for the dollars expended.

[Dr. Evil]

I'm one who was excited about signing Santana and when this news came out I found myself feeling very mad. I figured he would stabilize the top end of the rotation and that would have a trickle down effect on all areas of the team.

 

But, then I got to thinking more about it and concluded that part of my anger stemmed from already having been kind of frustrated over my perception that the gm did not do much to address some of the teams glaring holes in the offseason.

 

So, when this announcement came out, I think I was already feeling negative and this sort of gave me something to vent at. I'm wondering if any of you kinda see the same thing in how you may be feeling.

 

Now I ask myself, what things can I get excited about regarding this team? What areas can I look to for hope? Well, Our young and developing core of players that need to evolve in order for us to make our next serious run at a World Series is still in tact. Also, I feel good about the new coaching staff and I am thinking that they can get more out of the players through teaching and through a different attitude and culture.

 

Losing a veteran pitcher right out of the gate really stinks. But, I think I can get over it and set my frustrations aside so that I can relax and watch or listen to the games this spring and summer like I always do. I love baseball and I really can't force myself to cheer for a team other than the one I grew up with.

 

My 2 cents..........

[jimmer]

When looking at ERA+, he was a below average starter last year and has been a below average starter two of the last three seasons.  

 

When looking at WAR, he averaged around a 2.8 WAR the last two seasons but if you go back another year he's been below a 2 WAR pitcher on average over the last three seasons. ZiPS projected him to have a WAR under 1 this year before the suspension.

 

Not sure how much we are really losing by having him gone for 1/2 a season. His best attribute is that he normally pitches a lot of innings, which is valuable but more valuable when you are really good.

Edited April 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If the fifth starter can pitch at replacement level, it probably has the cost of 1 win. Twin fifth starters haven't been that successful so maybe it will be two wins. That might be critical to a team fighting for the wild card but it doesn't change the 2015 outlook for the Twins.

if only Santana was the 5th starter, you need to expect more than 1-2 wins difference between a guy on a 20 mil per season contract and guy you just relegated to the bullpen, otherwise, why did you spend the money? Just float a whole rotation of Mike Pelfrey's because it's only the difference between 65 wins and 72 wins.

[jorgenswest]

if only Santana was the 5th starter, you need to expect more than 1-2 wins difference between a guy on a 20 mil per season contract and guy you just relegated to the bullpen, otherwise, why did you spend the money? Just float a whole rotation of Mike Pelfrey's because it's only the difference between 65 wins and 72 wins.

I am not sure why they paid a 32 year old pitcher coming off a season with a 92+ ERA tens of millions. It does not really matter how much he is paid. It doesn't change his projections. He was projected for 0.7 WAR by ZIPS and 1.5 by steamer. Cut that in half. The new fifth starter is taking his starts. If you don't want to call him the fifth starter call him something else. If the starters replacing him are replacement level, the cost in wins will be minimal because Santana skill level starts below league average. Assuming the starts are below replacement level, the cost might be two wins.

 

If you are going to win 72 games, you might chose to risk winning 65 by going young and developing that talent rather than buying decline phase talent to get to 72. That would be floating a rotation of team control guys like Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Milone, Berrios...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

When looking at ERA+, he was a below average starter last year and has been a below average starter two of the last three seasons. 

This is not invalidating your point but I've seen ERA+ used in this fashion in the past and it always bothers me.

 

An ERA+ of 92 is not necessarily below average for a starter.

 

The NL ERA of starters last year was 3.73 in 1400 innings. The NL ERA of relievers last year was 3.53 in 720 innings. The NL ERA of all pitchers last year was 3.66.

 

So, while Santana was probably a touch under league average in ERA+, the "average starter" in the NL was probably an ERA+ in the 96-ish range, not 100. Santana was in the "close enough" range where I'd consider him a league average starter in 2014.

 

The split was more dramatic in the AL last season, about .30 ERA difference between starters and relievers. I assume this is because NL starters get to face pitchers at the plate while relievers face more pinch-hitters.

[jimmer]

 

This is not invalidating your point but I've seen ERA+ used in this fashion in the past and it always bothers me.

 

An ERA+ of 92 is not necessarily below average for a starter.

 

The NL ERA of starters last year was 3.73 in 1400 innings. The NL ERA of relievers last year was 3.53 in 720 innings. The NL ERA of all pitchers last year was 3.66.

 

So, while Santana was probably a touch under league average in ERA+, the "average starter" in the NL was probably an ERA+ in the 96-ish range, not 100. Santana was in the "close enough" range where I'd consider him a league average starter in 2014.

And we also have to take into account ballpark, which ERA+ does.  It's not just about what the starting pitcher's average ERA was across the league compared to his because they all pitch in different parks too. So when just comparing ERA across the board, a key component of ERA+ is missed.

 

'For instance, if the average ERA in the league is 4.00, and the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark that favors hitters, and his ERA is 4.00, then his ERA+ will be over 100. Likewise, if the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark favoring pitchers, then the pitcher's ERA+ will be below 100. As a result, ERA+ can be used to compare pitchers across different run environments. In the above example, the first pitcher may have performed better than the second pitcher, even though his ERA is higher. ERA+ can be used to account for this misleading impression.'

 

It's why I took into account ERA+ and not ERA.

 

And, to be honest, I'm not a big fan of judging pitcher by ERA anyway, but I know many are, so I showed that and also WAR.  I was going to break out FIP,  you know.

Edited April 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

And we also have to take into account ballpark, which ERA+ does.  It's not just about what the starting pitcher's average ERA was across the league because they pitch in different parks.

 

'For instance, if the average ERA in the league is 4.00, and the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark that favors hitters, and his ERA is 4.00, then his ERA+ will be over 100. Likewise, if the pitcher is pitching in a ballpark favoring pitchers, then the pitcher's ERA+ will be below 100.'

 

It's why I used ERA+ and not ERA.

My underlying point is that using ERA+ to determine an "average starter" isn't fair because ERA+ is skewed by lower reliever ERAs. An ERA+ of 100 is all pitchers, not just starters. Add in the lower ERAs of relievers and the "average" number of 100 is a touch unfair to starters, who have a higher ERAs.

 

ERA+ is a better stat than ERA. I won't argue that point, only its use to determine "average" when talking about either a reliever or a starter.

 

For example, a starter that posts an ERA+ of 98 is likely above average as a starter, particularly if he pitches in the AL. All those relievers are skewing ERA+ to make that starter look slightly below average when that almost certainly is not the case.

[jimmer]

 

My underlying point is that using ERA+ to determine an "average starter" isn't fair because ERA+ is skewed by lower reliever ERAs. An ERA+ of 100 is all pitchers, not just starters. Add in the lower ERAs of relievers and the "average" number of 100 is a touch unfair to starters, who have a higher ERAs.

 

ERA+ is a better stat than ERA. I won't argue that point, only its use to determine "average" when talking about either a reliever or a starter.

I get your point and it's valid, but if you are just looking at average starter ERA compared to his, that isn't taking into account ballparks or run environment.  That's why I look at ERA+ instead of looking at average ERA.  I mean, if I have to talk ERA.

Edited April 4, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

Absolutely. As I said in my first post, my comments were not meant to invalidate your overall point about Santana, just that I didn't like the use of "below average" in that context.

[jimmer]

What was average starter ERA and average reliever ERA in the NL last year?

[Brock Beauchamp]

3.73 and 3.53 in the NL. 3.92 and 3.63 in the AL. Going from memory of a few minutes ago so numbers might be a touch off.

[jimmer]

 

3.73 and 3.53 in the NL. 3.92 and 3.63 in the AL. Going from memory of a few minutes ago so numbers might be a touch off.

thanks.

[jorgenswest]

Every year I use BR play index and select the top 150 pitcher by starts. One of the sidetracks in the article below has that info.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/

 

Last year the median starter was 100, but sometimes it is 99 or 98 because of relievers. The 90th rank had an ERA+ of 95 last year. Santana would have in the midst of the number 4 starters. Like Correia, his ability to stay healthy gives him a boost in value but not in performance. The team just get more starts at that level. Three years ago he was near the bottom of the 150. Two years ago he was a number 2 likely with help of the Royals league best defense.

 

With the Twins defense and park, an ERA mid 4s should be expected this year with decline if the defense does not improve. That is a loss, but not a catastrophic loss. It will be catastrophic if his decline accelerates without steroids and the Twins stubbornly keep him on the roster and don't look for a better solution.

[b.p.w.]

I'm no expert but it seems like there a couple of conclusions to draw from this, if this is a rebuilding year (again); I'm assuming it is even while hoping for a "miracle":

 

1. The admin is using Milone and now Pelfrey with the hopes they pitch really well and, along with Hughes and Gibson, pitch us into relevancy (who knows about Nolasco);

 

2. The admin is using Milone and Pelfrey to pitch pretty well while we still languish out of contention and we trade them for prospects;

 

3. The admin is using Milone and Pelfrey to give the young'ns a bit of time in AAA and pay due diligence to the veterans with the "knowledge" that in 2 weeks to a month May, Meyer and all of AAA will be with the MLB team;

 

4. The admin doesn't know what it is doing (the armchair manager loves this answer but it is rarely correct...unless you live in Philly)!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought there was a rule that an optioned player couldn't be recalled for 10 days? That may explain May not coming back. I don't thonk Thompson was optioned, I think he was waived and no one wanted him enough to pick him up.

There is such a rule, but it can be waived for injury (and apparently suspension). Thompson was optioned just like May -- he was still on the 40-man roster.

[b.p.w.]

Oh yeah...a certainty:

 

Drop Santana from your Fantasy Team!

[JeffReboulet]

Bottom line: As much as it sucks Santana is gone half the season, I find the roster construction by far the most perplexing/disappointing/aggravating/exasperating point heading into spring.

 

Hopefully the roster looks significantly better May 1st... Or maybe Ryan and Molitor have some sort of diabolical master plan regarding their decisions this spring?

 

Everything's just a big let down. In February optimism and expectations were high (probably artificially, but still). But now this is by far the least excited I've been for the season to start in years.

Edited April 4, 2015 by JeffReboulet

[Mike Sixel]

teams dont cut guys 2 weeks in. This is the rotation for 6 weeks, at least.

[nokomismod]

 

LSD is a schedule I, indeed.  LSD analogs (which is what I was talking about) like Lysergic Acid (The LS in LSD - full name LySergic acid Diethylamide) is a schedule III

Can't we go back to the dang 70's when Doc Ellis' PED was LCD?