Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Kennys Vargas

[Seth Stohs]

It’s the last of our hitter predictions today as we look at Kennys Vargas and the other AL Central designated hitters. Sure, Vargas will get some time at first base too, but primarily he will be the DH.

 

Below, read about Vargas, but be sure to review and make your predictions for the other Minnesota Twins hitters. We can look back at the end of the season and see how we all did.MINNESOTA TWINS – KENNYS VARGAS

 

Kennys Vargas had not even been drafted out of high school in Puerto Rico when the Twins were able to sign him as a free agent. He was big, and he was raw. It took him two years in the Gulf Coast League and a year at Elizabethton to get out of rookie league ball. A 50-game suspension delayed the start of his 2012 season which he spent in Beloit. In 2013, he 33 doubles and 19 home runs in Ft. Myers.

 

He began the 2014 season in New Britain where he was very streaky. He was named to the World Team and played first base at Target Field. On July 31, the Twins traded Josh Willingham and promoted Vargas to the big leagues despite him being on a cold streak. He came up directly from Double-A and made a good showing. In 53 games, he hit .274/.316/.456 (.772) with 10 doubles and nine home runs. The Twins named him their Minor League Hitter of the Year.

 

So, what can he do for the Twins in 2015? Can he avoid the dreaded sophomore slump? Can he continue to be a run producer in the middle of the lineup? We shall see. Here are the Twins Daily writers’ predictions:

 

 

Seth – .261/.326/.431 (.726) with 23 doubles and 18 HR.

Nick – .255/.320/.460 (.780) with 20 doubles and 25 HR.

Parker –

John –

 

 

AL CENTRAL DESIGNATED HITTERS

 

Opponent – Player – 2015 Age – 2014 Statistics

Chicago – Adam LaRoche – 35 - .259/.362/.455 (.817) with 19 doubles, 26-HR

Cleveland – Nick Swisher – 34 - .208/.278/.331 (.608) with 20 doubles, 8-HR

Detroit – Victor Martinez – 36 - .335/.409/.565 (.974) with 33 doubles, 32-HR

Kansas City – Kendrys Morales – 32 - .218/.274/.338 (.612) with 20 doubles, 8-HR

 

 

AL CENTRAL DESIGNATED HITTER RANKINGS

 

#1 – Victor Martinez – Detroit

#2 – Adam LaRoche – Chicago

#3 – Kennys Vargas – Minnesota

#4 – Kendrys Morales – Kansas City

#5 – Nick Swisher – Cleveland

 

 

NOW IT’S YOUR TURN

 

Give it a little thought and then go to the comments section below and post two things. First, make your statistical projection for Kennys Vargas in 2015. Second, how would you rank the AL Central DHs? Then discuss your thoughts with the rest of the Twins Daily community on the Twins DH position. How will it play out throughout the season? Check back throughout this next week as we’ll do these same things for each of the positions.

 

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS AND RANKINGS

 

 

Kurt Suzuki

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Trevor Plouffe

Danny Santana

Oswaldo Arcia

Jordan Schafer

Torii Hunter

 

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[AKTwins]

Vargas will be helped out with Hunter and Maurer batting around him.  I suspect there will be a long drought in May or June, where he goes something like 3 for 45 over a stretch.  Wouldn't surprise me if he was sent to Rochester for a bit and Pinto becomes a DH for a while.  Otherwise, I think he could form into a Billy Butler type DH, lots of doubles, decent average (280-290) and not a ton of home runs (14-16).

[troyhobbs]

Is 270/325/470ish too optimistic? I'll also put him at #2 in the ALC since the other DHs in the league are almost old enough to be his father. Martinez can still rake though.

[Willihammer]

.275/.340/.480, 25+ bombs. The undisputed best DH in the division by year's end.

[Halsey Hall]

I see a big year for Vargas, with some growing pains.  But he'll average .275-.280 with 26 doubles and 28 bombs.  A bright spot for us this year. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

he had quite a bit of plate discipline in the minors, though he got away from that a bit last season.  It sounds like that's something he recognizes.  I'm far more optimistic than the TD writers are.  I think he can hit much closer to his minor league career.  .280/.350/.470 with 25+ home runs (leads team). 

[Lazarus]

It looks to me that the Twins will be a reprisal of the 1970's Minnesota Lumber Company - trying to out-hit/score the damage done by their pitching staff. If this team doesn't come out of the gates hitting a ton, they will be close to 100 losses this season.

[John Kelsey]

I think his OBP goes up but the average stays closer to .260 or .270. 

 

I'll say .260/.335/.455

[cjvirnig]

Bank on Victor Martinez regressing in 2015. Last year was a career year and there's nowhere for him to go but down.  In general I'm a huge seller on the Detroit Tigers.

[SwainZag]

 

Vargas will be helped out with Hunter and Maurer batting around him.  I suspect there will be a long drought in May or June, where he goes something like 3 for 45 over a stretch.  Wouldn't surprise me if he was sent to Rochester for a bit and Pinto becomes a DH for a while.  Otherwise, I think he could form into a Billy Butler type DH, lots of doubles, decent average (280-290) and not a ton of home runs (14-16).

Why the Butler comparison?  I am just curious.  Vargas has much, much raw power than Billy does.  Besides being slow and a liability of defense I don't see much Butler in Vargas's game.

 

I'll say .265/.340/.475 with 28 HR.

[HitInAPinch]

I think it'll all depend on how he handles breaking balls, because he's gonna see a lot this year. I'll say .260 BA, 25+ HR's, and a butt-load of K's.

[AKTwins]

 

Why the Butler comparison?  I am just curious.  Vargas has much, much raw power than Billy does.  Besides being slow and a liability of defense I don't see much Butler in Vargas's game.

 

I'll say .265/.340/.475 with 28 HR.

I compare him to Butler because of his OBP and I think he is more a line drive/use the entire field hitter than a home run threat.  Vargas will hit a lot of doubles into the gaps, like Butler did.  The other things that I think will play into a statistical match between the two is that Vargas will play 81 games at Target Field.  He is a switch hitter, so he will be batting left-handed 2/3 of the time.  If he was playing 81 games at Yankee stadium I think he would hit 3-5 more home runs.  He was brought up in the Twins system, so I think he will use the field, take what the pitchers give him and not pull the ball too much.  I think his batting eye will translate more than his power.  Also, I am going off of a historical hunch, not too many switch hitters hit 30 homers, Tiexeria comes to mind (as does Mantle).  Anyways, I hope I am wrong and he hits 30 homers, but having a Billy Butler-type isnt a bad thing.

[prouster]

 

I compare him to Butler because of his OBP and I think he is more a line drive/use the entire field hitter than a home run threat. 

 

Based on what? Vargas has demonstrated the ability to hit for power since he's been in the Twins' system. He slugged almost .500 over the course of his minor league career, and his home run total in the majors last year projected to almost 30 over a full season's worth of at bats. Choosing OBP to determine a player's ability to hit for power is . . . wacky. The only player on the team with more raw power than Vargas is (for the time being) Arcia. Simply put, the Billy Butler comparison makes no sense, because Vargas can mash.

[prouster]

As for a projection, I don't know.

 

.260/.315/.420 with 35 doubles and 26 dingers? How does that sound?

[Hrbowski]

.267/.344/.468 (.813) with 33 doubles and 19 home runs.

[Hrbowski]

Speaking of Vargas, I was getting the uniforms confused during the Red Sox game last night, and when I turned the game on I said, "Is that Kennys Vargas?" It was David Ortiz.

[Willihammer]

Yeah Red Sox in Blue, Twins in red. I was confused all night by that.

[walt-o-meal]

David Ortiz is the fat one on steroids.

[AKTwins]

I'm not using OBP to rate his power. I just think playing at Target Field and the twins hitting philosophy will lead to less home runs and more walks and doubles. The butler comparison is statistically based. If Vargas was in the Rangers system and played half his games in Arlington with all the summer heat he would hit more home runs.

[TheLeviathan]

.275/.340/.480, 25+ bombs. The undisputed best DH in the division by year's end.

Man I'm so behind this. Vargas has quickly become a favorite of mine, i hope he maintains his trajectory the last year or so.