Article: 2015 Projections and Rankings: Joe Mauer

[jimmer]

If 2009 Joe is what you need to see to say he's awesome then yes, he won't be awesome. That's easy. He was that guy once, which really means he's never been that guy in reality because extreme outliers don't give us a realistic view of what a player's level is.

 

Tony Gwynn is going to be disappointed you don't think he had an awesome career. Carew too.  Oh, and neither of them had to play catcher for around half their career while doing it.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[Thrylos]

.300/.400/.460  feels about right.

[notoriousgod71]

I doubt Mauer will be able to stay healthy anyway so his slash line is irrelevant.

[USAFChief]

 

If 2009 Joe is what you need to see to say he's awesome then yes, he won't be awesome. That's easy. He was that guy once, which really means he's never been that guy in reality because extreme outliers don't give us a realistic view of what a player's level is.

 

Tony Gwynn is going to be disappointed you don't think he had an awesome career. Carew too.  Oh, and neither of them had to play catcher for around half their career while doing it.

Gwynn had a very nice career.  HOF worthy.

 

Not awesome.

 

Miguel Cabrera hasn't OPS's below .879 since his rookie year.  He's been over .900 five times, over 1.000 three more.

 

That's awesome, in my book.

 

 

[mnfireman]

I think Mauer needs to jump on a few pitches early in the count to pull the ball in the air to get teams to play him honestly. He knows his scouting report, now he just needs to change it up a little.

 

I'm thinking .325/.400/.475 for the season.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

I've never been against Mauer, but he did not get drafted in my fantasy baseball draft. I think that says a lot. 

 

If you don't include on-base, and walks than I could see Mauer being passed on after a down 2014.

 

I'm optimistic he's going to be better than last year but pessimistic we'll ever see the old Joe Mauer.

 

.288/.369/.417 

[LeatherAntenna]

If you don't include on-base, and walks than I could see Mauer being passed on after a down 2014.

 

I'm optimistic he's going to be better than last year but pessimistic we'll ever see the old Joe Mauer.

 

.288/.369/.417

we will see the old Joe Mauer, the 2009 version when he reaches his contract year in 2018.

[Shane Wahl]

.317/.406/.448 (.854) with 38 doubles and 7 homers.

[dgwills]

 

It says there are a lot of players in your league I'd like to play fantasy baseball with or that your league is small or the format is bad. Or that your players are easily spooked by one bad year. Most fantasy baseball leagues don't count defense other than errors. Many fantasy leagues will think Howard is better than Mauer.  He's not. 

 

Fantasy Baseball formats often doesn't reflect reality on who is an overall good ballplayer and who isn't. Someone decides what stats deserve the most points which ones deserve too little, which ones don't have any value at all. Most go by the most traditional stats possible.  

 

Whether or not he's drafted or not by some fantasy players doesn't really tell us anything about what he'll do.

I'll agree it's a weak league since I won it last year. It's a basic format for hitters:runs,rbi,home runs, stolen bases, avg, and on base percentage. Mauer only has a chance of doing well at 2 of those categories.  Up to 4 if he goes crazy.  Recent history does not show that as being a likely scenario. Sorry but he's just not that great as a first baseman. Could of been in the hall of fame as a catcher though. It just didn't work out.

[Dr. Evil]

I would love to pose this question to joe Mauer.

[DocBauer]

 

I feel like the main question is actually how many games he plays, as games played will likely be indicative of his health. If he ends up playing 155 games, he likely stayed healthy and I'm willing to bet put up "normal" Mauer numbers. If it's a season of 130 games played, it's fair to guess he was injured/playing through injuries again.

 

EXACTLY!

The move to 1B was never about Mauer suddenly becoming a big time power hitter. It was about moving one of the best pure hitters of his generation to a position where he could be more healthy and play 150 games. Less wear and tear physically might also produce a bit more power, just based on fresher health, but really, overall, it was just about getting production over 150 games instead of 120.

 

Despite bumps, bruises, a decade of squatting and foul ball ticks and the one plus year of concussion issue, Mauer is and always has been a very good athlete. From his own reports, he feels the best he's felt in a couple of years. Can you doubt that?

 

He is not old. He is not washed up. He is looking very good at 1b. He is healthy again. He's working hard and making smart adjustments. And he will hit high .290's at worst, and I say .300-.310. OB will be .395-.405. He will hit 12-16 HR's which will affect his doubles....36-44. I don't know to figure the slugging % there, and I don't care. Because I think Mauer will be Mauer again...a little high here...a little lower here...and people will wonder why they doubted him.

[KGB]

 

If 2009 Joe is what you need to see to say he's awesome then yes, he won't be awesome. That's easy. He was that guy once, which really means he's never been that guy in reality because extreme outliers don't give us a realistic view of what a player's level is.

 

Tony Gwynn is going to be disappointed you don't think he had an awesome career. Carew too.  Oh, and neither of them had to play catcher for around half their career while doing it.

Tony Gwynn won 4 batting titles after the age of 33, Carew won a title at 31 & 32.  it will be awesome to see Mauer win a couple more batting titles.

 

If we are going to compare him to HOF's, let's set HOF goals for him.

[jimmer]

 

Tony Gwynn won 4 batting titles after the age of 33, Carew won a title at 31 & 32.  it will be awesome to see Mauer win a couple more batting titles.

 

If we are going to compare him to HOF's, let's set HOF goals for him.

Chief and I were talking about Mauer's career slashline and how that's apparently not awesome.  His career slashline is better than Carew's and Gwynn's.  And we can add Boggs in there too.  All these hitters were hitters like Mauer. And none of them had to do this while enduring the rigors of the catcher position.

[LeatherAntenna]

EXACTLY!

The move to 1B was never about Mauer suddenly becoming a big time power hitter. It was about moving one of the best pure hitters of his generation to a position where he could be more healthy and play 150 games. Less wear and tear physically might also produce a bit more power, just based on fresher health, but really, overall, it was just about getting production over 150 games instead of 120.

 

Despite bumps, bruises, a decade of squatting and foul ball ticks and the one plus year of concussion issue, Mauer is and always has been a very good athlete. From his own reports, he feels the best he's felt in a couple of years. Can you doubt that?

 

He is not old. He is not washed up. He is looking very good at 1b. He is healthy again. He's working hard and making smart adjustments. And he will hit high .290's at worst, and I say .300-.310. OB will be .395-.405. He will hit 12-16 HR's which will affect his doubles....36-44. I don't know to figure the slugging % there, and I don't care. Because I think Mauer will be Mauer again...a little high here...a little lower here...and people will wonder why they doubted him.

He is a good athlete and pure hitter and first baseman. The issue is that typically teams 'hide' power at first base, not 4 homerun per year hitters. And no one else pays a non power guy 23 mil for 4 HRs and 130 singles. The Twins need to get him traded to Boston or New York but will have to throw in paying 1/2 his salary to get it done.

[tobi0040]

 

Chief and I were talking about Mauer's career slashline and how that's apparently not awesome.  His career slashline is better than Carew's and Gwynn's.  And we can add Boggs in there too.  All these hitters were hitters like Mauer. And none of them had to do this while enduring the rigors of the catcher position.

 

There are some that judge Joe Mauer by his HR totals alone.  They will always be terribly dissapointed in him.  I choose to sit back and enjoy the best pure hitter we may see in a Twins uniform in our lifetime.

[Oxtung]

EXACTLY!

The move to 1B was never about Mauer suddenly becoming a big time power hitter. It was about moving one of the best pure hitters of his generation to a position where he could be more healthy and play 150 games. Less wear and tear physically might also produce a bit more power, just based on fresher health, but really, overall, it was just about getting production over 150 games instead of 120.

 

Despite bumps, bruises, a decade of squatting and foul ball ticks and the one plus year of concussion issue, Mauer is and always has been a very good athlete. From his own reports, he feels the best he's felt in a couple of years. Can you doubt that?

 

He is not old. He is not washed up. He is looking very good at 1b. He is healthy again. He's working hard and making smart adjustments. And he will hit high .290's at worst, and I say .300-.310. OB will be .395-.405. He will hit 12-16 HR's which will affect his doubles....36-44. I don't know to figure the slugging % there, and I don't care. Because I think Mauer will be Mauer again...a little high here...a little lower here...and people will wonder why they doubted him.

I think everyone can agree that would be awesome (well except maybe the Chief)!

[KGB]

 

There are some that judge Joe Mauer by his HR totals alone.  They will always be terribly dissapointed in him.  I choose to sit back and enjoy the best pure hitter we may see in a Twins uniform in our lifetime.

Makes me feel old, since I've seen Carew and Oliva, so maybe it's just a point of reference.

[tobi0040]

 

Makes me feel old, since I've seen Carew and Oliva, so maybe it's just a point of reference.

 

Yeah, Carew was 37 when I was born.  So I don't have much to go on outside of baseball reference stats!

 

Career BA is 10 points higher than Joe.  Joe's OPS is 38 points higher than Carew's.Joe has a small OPS plus edge.  My understanding is Carew had many bunt hits.  They will probably end up with the same amount of HR's.

 

Joe has Oliva in every category outside of HR and slugging. OPS, OPS plus, BA, OBP by 48 points.

 

He is at least in the discussion, yet here you will find 4-5 negative comments for every positive one about Joe.

Edited April 1, 2015 by tobi0040

[USAFChief]

Yeah, Carew was 37 when I was born.  So I don't have much to go on outside of baseball reference stats!

 

Career BA is 10 points higher than Joe.  Joe's OPS is 38 points higher than Carew's.Joe has a small OPS plus edge.  My understanding is Carew had many bunt hits.  They will probably end up with the same amount of HR's.

 

Joe has Oliva in every category outside of HR and slugging. OPS, OPS plus, BA, OBP by 48 points.

 

He is at least in the discussion, yet here you will find 4-5 negative comments for every positive one about Joe.

Lets see where Mauer's career numbers end up before comparing career numbers.

 

In my lifetime, Killebrew was the best Twins hitter I've seen. Oliva second, Carew third, It gets hazy after that. But then I don't put as much weight to OBP as some do.

 

And IMO, two sub .800 OPS seasons out of four, and a seeming inability or unwillingness to adjust is worthy of some discontent, but of course YMMV.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Joe has Oliva in every category outside of HR and slugging. OPS, OPS plus, BA, OBP by 48 points.

 

He is at least in the discussion, yet here you will find 4-5 negative comments for every positive one about Joe.

 

I don't necessarily disagree that people are too harsh on Mauer, but you don't think this is kind of an unfair argument?

 

You're including Carew's career when his skills were in decline and right now Mauer's career is all of his prime.  You might have a better argument to compare where Carew was at 31 years old to Mauer at 31.  They look roughly the same, but I don't have the time to do the math.  It's certainly clear that Carew's play his last 5 seasons (age 35-39) brought his numbers down as you'd expect most players of that age to show.

 

So it might be wise to compare apples to apples a bit more.

[jimmer]

 

I don't necessarily disagree that people are too harsh on Mauer, but you don't think this is kind of an unfair argument?

 

You're including Carew's career when his skills were in decline and right now Mauer's career is all of his prime.  You might have a better argument to compare where Carew was at 31 years old to Mauer at 31.  They look roughly the same, but I don't have the time to do the math.  It's certainly clear that Carew's play his last 5 seasons (age 35-39) brought his numbers down as you'd expect most players of that age to show.

 

So it might be wise to compare apples to apples a bit more.

We also might want to take into account Mauer did it while enduring the rigors of playing catcher while Carew, Oliva, Boggs and Gwynn didn't have to do that.

 

In any event, thse guys were brought up because I talked about how if Joe could get back to being Joe with his career slashline that'd be awesome Joe.  Then it was pointed out his slashline isn't awesome.  So these HOF players (minus Oliva) were mentioned.  Similar type of slashlines. Similar types of hitters.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

We also might want to take into account Mauer did it while enduring the rigors of playing catcher while Carew, Oliva, Boggs and Gwynn didn't have to do that.

 

In any event, thse gusy were brought up because I talked about how if Joe could get back to being Joe with his slashline that'd be awesome Joe.  Then it was pointed out his slashline isn't awesome.  So these HOF players (minus Oliva) were mentioned.  Similar types of hitters.

 

I'm just pointing out some context is important.  You can't say his slashline is better and it be a total career (including decline) versus one that is only in their prime.

 

Mauer's position is absolutely important and I think he gets way too much flack.  None of that makes the argument of Carews career slash vs. Mauer's a good one.  It's still flawed with all those caveats admitted.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't necessarily disagree that people are too harsh on Mauer, but you don't think this is kind of an unfair argument?

 

You're including Carew's career when his skills were in decline and right now Mauer's career is all of his prime.  You might have a better argument to compare where Carew was at 31 years old to Mauer at 31.  They look roughly the same, but I don't have the time to do the math.  It's certainly clear that Carew's play his last 5 seasons (age 35-39) brought his numbers down as you'd expect most players of that age to show.

 

So it might be wise to compare apples to apples a bit more.

 

These are fair points.  And when I initially made the comment I was thinking my lifetime, which excludes these guys. 

 

But the broader point is Joe is in the discussion, yet nobody is happy with him.

 

I looked at OPS thru age 31 season.  I just summed OPS / number of year for Olvia, Carew, and Killebrew and compared that with Joe's career.  So the other guys won't be perfect as the at bats were not evenly distributed but it should be very close.  I also started the tally when they were full time MLB players.

 

Joe's OPS is .860.  He is ahead of Oliva's 858 and Carew's 839 and well behind Killebrew's 923.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I'm just pointing out some context is important.  You can't say his slashline is better and it be a total career (including decline) versus one that is only in their prime.

 

Mauer's position is absolutely important and I think he gets way too much flack.  None of that makes the argument of Carews career slash vs. Mauer's a good one.  It's still flawed with all those caveats admitted.

I think you are still missing the point. Maybe go back and read the discussion between Chief and I. We were just talking about the career slashline Mauer has. IMO, the slashline itself is awesome.  I said if Joe can have his career slashline this year, that will be awesome.  Or not, depending on point of view.  He said that slashline isn't awesome.  So I brought up similiar type HOF hitters who had those slashlines and still managed to be HOFers. Players most consider awesome players.  Except Joe, apparently.

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

These are fair points.  And when I initially made the comment I was thinking my lifetime, which excludes these guys. 

 

But the broader point is Joe is in the discussion, yet nobody is happy with him.

 

I looked at OPS thru age 31 season.  I just summed OPS / number of year for Olvia, Carew, and Killebrew and compared that with Joe's career.  So the other guys won't be perfect as the at bats were not evenly distributed but it should be very close.  I also started the tally when they were full time MLB players.

 

Joe's OPS is .860.  He is ahead of Oliva's 858 and Carew's 839 and well behind Killebrew's 923.

Where was Gwynn's and Boggs (corner IF and corner OF)?

Edited April 1, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

Joe's OPS is .860.  He is ahead of Oliva's 858 and Carew's 839 and well behind Killebrew's 923.

 

I figured it would be pretty close, it just helps the argument to be accurate.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think you are still missing the point. 

 

No, I'm really not.  I get the point.  I agree with Tobi's thesis.  Go look at the above section I quoted and then re-read what my beef is.

 

Tobi cleaned up that argument much more and it still reinforces the point he was making and I agree with.  It's just not as dramatic.  Even when you assume Mauer's last few years in the league dragging down his career slash line it'll still be in line with those HOF players.

Edited April 1, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[Mike Frasier Law]

OK. Mauer's had some huge years and some very bad years. Heck, in 2011, he was BELOW AVERAGE!!! (99 wRC+). He's obviously past his age peak, but he's not 40. I'm gonna go with his career line for 2015: 319/401/459.

 

Interesting tidbit - even though he increased his k rates the last few years, over his career he has walked more than he has struck out. Just sayin'

Edited April 1, 2015 by Mike Frasier Law

[jimmer]

 

I figured it would be pretty close, it just helps the argument to be accurate.  

A lot of people want to make sure it's perfect context  (which is pretty much impossible to attain) only in so much as it hurts Mauer's case.  Now we can wonder how close it would have been if those guys also had to play catcher.

[TheLeviathan]

 

A lot of people want to make sure it's perfect context  (which is pretty much impossible to attain) only in so much as it hurts Mauer's case.  Now we can wonder how close it would have been if those guys also had to play catcher.

 

You're making this awfully personal when my initial rebuttal had nothing to do with you or your argument.  You interjected yourself into a reply to another poster, so don't project my reply to him to you.  That's a bit ridiculous.

 

I didn't feel tobi's argument was great as stated, even though I agreed with his thesis.   Perfect context isn't necessary, but comparing one guy's 23-31 seasons to another's 23-39 seems a bit unfair.  I wouldn't want anyone to do that against Mauer either, so fairness in discussion should be important.

 

Plenty of ways to poke holes in the case against Mauer without stacking the deck.

Edited April 1, 2015 by TheLeviathan