Boyer makes the team

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes he sure has, occasionally. But correct me if I'm wrong, our bullpen has been ranked in the bottom 5 of all of MLB the past 3 years. Yet we still look to reclamation projects as a primary source of talent.

Probably depends on the stat you use.  I think if you use fWAR for it, then it might be right.  If you use era or opponent OPS, than no.  

 

On the other hand, if you use fWAR, then Ryan's bullpens have usually been top of the line (#2 in fWAR from 1999-2007).

 

And again, does this mean you favor going after Soriano or signing a FA reliever to a 3 year deal, like Gregerson?  I don't really see much, if any, better upside with guys like Tonkin and Achter at this point.  If Burdi or Reed were being held back, that would be something different.  

[tobi0040]

The biggest head-scratcher for me were not cutting Duensing and signing both Stauffer and Boyer.  We have enough talent in AAA to justify at least one of those spots.

[savvyspy]

 

Gotta respect the decisions.  The Twins coaches are working with these guys every day.  If they don't perform, then we bring up the kids.  Nothing wrong with that.  And, Boyer looked like he has some good stuff tonight against the Sox.

 

Brighten up people.  The regular season is about to begin.  Could it be any worse than the last four years?

Aside from the fact that represents an incredibly low bar, I think the answer is an heart felt YES!! 

 

There is nothing about this roster that is an improvement over any of the past 4 seasons. Where are they improved? Starting pitching? No. Defense? No. Offense> They stood pat with a slightly above average lineup. Bench? Probably the worst bench in the majors and it not close.

 

This is the same MO of the Twins. Bring retreads north every year and watch them destroy the season every single year.

 

Boyer is a replacement level player. That's what he is. Chris Herrmann doesn't make any other major league roster. Something called Shane Robinson is going to play center?? Good God.

 

Yet EVERY SINGLE young player they've been touting is back to the minors until they prove they are Hall of Famers. Its time to realize the Twins are the ONLY team that operates this way and it been an absolute utter failure at every turn.

 

So if you are asking if things can get worse, I will not only tell you it can but will take it a step further and tell you the numbers would suggest its almost a guarantee it will get worse.

 

This is a 66-96 roster.

[Yoshii]

I bet Theilbar is gone.  He had his one good year, time to go.

[gunnarthor]

 

Aside from the fact that represents an incredibly low bar, I think the answer is an heart felt YES!! 

 

There is nothing about this roster that is an improvement over any of the past 4 seasons. Where are they improved? Starting pitching? No. Defense? No. Offense> They stood pat with a slightly above average lineup. Bench? Probably the worst bench in the majors and it not close.

 

This is the same MO of the Twins. Bring retreads north every year and watch them destroy the season every single year.

 

Boyer is a replacement level player. That's what he is. Chris Herrmann doesn't make any other major league roster. Something called Shane Robinson is going to play center?? Good God.

 

Yet EVERY SINGLE young player they've been touting is back to the minors until they prove they are Hall of Famers. Its time to realize the Twins are the ONLY team that operates this way and it been an absolute utter failure at every turn.

 

So if you are asking if things can get worse, I will not only tell you it can but will take it a step further and tell you the numbers would suggest its almost a guarantee it will get worse.

 

This is a 66-96 roster.

There is so I disagree with in this post, it's not really worth getting into.  But I would point out that they had a 75 win team by pyth w/l last year so you seem to be expecting a significantly worse team than last year.  Let's hope you're wrong.

[IndyTwinsFan]

 

Take a look at how our bullpen is shaping up:
(Pitcher - Age) (Age is by June 30th of 2015)
Glen Perkins - 32

Casey Fien - 31

Brian Duensing - 32

Blaine Boyer - 33

Tim Stauffer - 33

Mike Pelfrey - 31

J. R. Graham - 25

 

This is a rebuilding team? There is ONE pitcher under 30 years old! 

 

Now, I know that the younger bullpen arms didn't look so great in Spring Training - Tonkin and Pryor's pitches were off, Thompson and Thielbar struggled, and Achter was just too reliable - but there has to be some development for the future here. 

 

In my opinion, Duensing, Stauffer, and Boyer aren't going to contribute to a potential 2016 playoff run. I'd rather see a young guy struggle a little bit and get experience so he can be better in 2016. 

 

But the Twins insist on rolling out barely passable veterans... we'll see if no shakeup in the formula will produce a non-90+ loss season, but I doubt it. 

While I don't disagree with this thought, I also believe that the late 2015 and 2016 bullpens are likely to be a good deal younger because of all the young power arms that are beginning to knock on the door.

[savvyspy]

 

There is so I disagree with in this post, it's not really worth getting into.  But I would point out that they had a 75 win team by pyth w/l last year so you seem to be expecting a significantly worse team than last year.  Let's hope you're wrong.

You seem to be implying the reason they performed worse than the pyth w/l number last year was chance. If we are going to rely on chance then I must yield they could get to 75 wins. I think this FO has a materially negative impact on why they continue to under-perform every single year.

 

I just don't think its too much to ask after 4 years of this garbage that expectations for this team could be raised above "if it all comes down to chance we are going to be terrible but not historically awful" It just doesn't seem to be the point of fielding a team at the major league level.

 

Guys like Stauffer and Boyer and Robinson and Nunez and Herrmann and Fryer and the list goes on and on have no business being on a major league roster for a team with a strategic plan of getting better at some point. Its like they make every single decision in a complete vacuum. Is Trevor May may better than Malone on some random day in spring training? No?? Then send him down and we're taking so replacement level junk pitcher north again even though it NEVER works and we have years of actual proof its a failed strategy. Milone is never going to be part of the solution for this team. It makes no sense to have these types of guys on a team like this.

 

Its like Terry Ryan thinks they are going to magically get better without rebuilding the roster. This is the worst rebuild in sports history. This roster is littered with guys with no upside that serve no other purpose than they are blocking more talented younger players that might ultimately be part of the turnaround from getting a chance. There isn't one place in professional sports that operates this way except here.

 

The decision to send Hicks to AAA is Exhibit A:

 

1. Molitor comes out and says he open to platooning players which would bring the Twins out of the dark ages after years of adhering to this obsolete failed philosophy.

2. You have two players in Hicks and Shaffer who are solid platoon players. Hicks hits lefties at a mid to high .260s clip and Shaffer is better against right handers.

3. The Twins decide to demote Hicks in favor of something called Shane Robinson who honestly can't hit either lefties or righties well but is slightly better against RH pitching at .240 lifetime.

4. So now against lefties your choice is two guys that bat below .225 against LH pitching and against RH Robinson should never play either. So what is his role???

 

And they accuse the Twolves of tanking......... 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not really sure young bullpens are particularly relevant to any team, including a rebuilding team.  Certainly, other rebuilding teams have had old bullpens.  Ideally, you want cheap arms (which they have) and replaceable arms (ditto).  The elite bullpen arms the Twins have in the minors aren't quite ready yet, although could be up by the break if all goes well.  I think worrying about whether or not 25 year old Tonkin or 26 year old Achter, for instance, makes the team seems a bit over thinking things.  

If age is a proxy for future value, I think it's a valid concern.  We've got 4 opening day bullpen spots tied up in expiring contracts (guys with only 1 year of control, no team options, then free agency).  As disappointing as our recent bullpens have been at times, we haven't had ANY such expiring contracts in our opening day bullpens since Matt Capps in 2012, and before that, Nathan in 2011.  Even in 2010 we only had three (Crain/Guerrier/Rauch), and of course we were very much a contending team at that time.  You'd have a hard time arguing that 2015 is somehow more of a short-term, "win now" season than 2010.

 

Of course, I could understand if the relievers were actually providing a lot of present-day value, but that doesn't appear likely either.  Here's our current group's career relief ERA- (lower is better) compared to the above names through 2010 (since Pelfrey has no prior bullpen experience, I had to use his overall ERA-):

 

 

And this measure probably overrates Duensing (LOOGY) and Stauffer (low leverage) compared to the others.

 

So, present-day performance, probably modest.  Trade value, probably even more modest.  Salary, non-negligible (3 of 4 making $2+ mil this year).  Minor league options, none.  Future control, none.

 

Do we really need to devote 4 spots for these kind of guys, in 2015?  It's a very odd time to assemble such a group.

[jimmer]

'Just wait till next year.' - says 2015, 2014, 2013.

 

This is a rebuilding year and now is the time to see what we have in our prospects. Doesn't mean we actually have to promote them to the majors to see what they can do at the major league level.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

So, present-day performance, probably modest.  Trade value, probably even more modest.  Salary, non-negligible (3 of 4 making $2+ mil this year).  Minor league options, none.  Future control, none.

 

Do we really need to devote 4 spots for these kind of guys, in 2015?  It's a very odd time to assemble such a group.

I get what you're saying and I'm not trying to belittle it or ignore it.  Letting Duensing go and putting Thielbar on the roster would have been fine with me.  But I don't see it as a huge issue - as of now - either.  Tonkin, Acter, Pressley are just as fungible in the grand scheme.  They could have spent more in FA.  Robertson got 4/46m, Rome 2/15, KRod 2/13, Duke 3/15 etc.  But big contracts to FA pitchers seems iffy, esp if Burdi, Meyer, Reed are in the bullpen in July.  

 

 

I would guess that no one thought the 2013 bullpen (Perkins, Roenicke, Fien, Duensing, Pressly, Swarzak) would be an asset and yet it was.  Relief pitchers and bullpens are so volatile, year to year, that this pen could be fine.  And, if not, then they have easily replaceable parts.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I get what you're saying and I'm not trying to belittle it or ignore it.  Letting Duensing go and putting Thielbar on the roster would have been fine with me.  But I don't see it as a huge issue - as of now - either.  Tonkin, Acter, Pressley are just as fungible in the grand scheme.  They could have spent more in FA.  Robertson got 4/46m, Rome 2/15, KRod 2/13, Duke 3/15 etc.  But big contracts to FA pitchers seems iffy, esp if Burdi, Meyer, Reed are in the bullpen in July.

 

I would guess that no one thought the 2013 bullpen (Perkins, Roenicke, Fien, Duensing, Pressly, Swarzak) would be an asset and yet it was.  Relief pitchers and bullpens are so volatile, year to year, that this pen could be fine.  And, if not, then they have easily replaceable parts.

Agreed that big FA spending on the bullpen isn't wise.  I'm absolutely not advocating that.

 

But at least guys like Tonkin, Achter, and Pressly are potential long-term assets.  So were Roenicke and Swarzak, if one actually thought they could eventually pitch well consistently.  I think the Twins were actually trying to find those guys a bit, from 2011-2014, although they weren't always picking great names.  But you find a keeper in that group, and that's a huge win -- multiple seasons of cheap bullpen value, like Fien and Burton, and early Duensing.  Maybe once and awhile you even find a gem and get a top set-up guy, like Guerrier.  And as a bonus you can sort through some of the chaff on the 40-man roster in the process.  Potential MLB relievers are probably the least likely to benefit from extended AAA time.

 

This year's pen could be fine, although the commitment seems a bit high for the low upside in these 4 spots.  If they collectively contribute a good-but-not-great season, where does that get us?

 

It's not a huge concern, obviously, but it's one of those conservative moves that doesn't offer much potential to quicken the rebuild.

[jorgenswest]

There is so I disagree with in this post, it's not really worth getting into.  But I would point out that they had a 75 win team by pyth w/l last year so you seem to be expecting a significantly worse team than last year.  Let's hope you're wrong.

There are baseball reasons why teams underperform their pythagorean projection. One reason is a bad bullpen. The Twins bullpen was 29th last year. Last years Twins were not a 75 win team. They had an opportunity to fix a really bad bullpen. Does it looked like they fixed it? Will we be writing next year that in spite on winning 70 games, their pythagorean projection had them at 73?

[Mike Sixel]

No one trades guys in May....unless there is an injury, this is the bullpen for at least 2 months. Since,you know, it is old guys without options.....

[Oxtung]

There are baseball reasons why teams underperform their pythagorean projection. One reason is a bad bullpen.

This is OT but can you point me towards the stats/article to back this up? If you have a bad bullpen then they are giving up a bunch of runs which would be accounted for in the Pythagorean rankings.

[gunnarthor]

 

This is OT but can you point me towards the stats/article to back this up? If you have a bad bullpen then they are giving up a bunch of runs which would be accounted for in the Pythagorean rankings.

Yeah, I thought the theory was that a good team could overperfrom it's pyth b/c of a bad bullpen b/c the bad pen would be used in blowouts to drive up the runs against.  IIRC, fans of a team a few years ago was making that claim but I can't remember who it was now.  Maybe the Reds or someone like that.  

[jimmer]

'Rationalizing the difference between a team’s Pythagorean record and its actual record tops my list of analytical pet peeves. I don’t mean to pick on Joe; he’s a very good analyst and a fine writer. I’m using him as an example that even the best will engage in this fool’s errand.'

 

'There are two main reasons why teams under- or over-perform their Pythagorean records: 1) a bizarre run distribution that is distorted from its typical Weibullian shape and 2) an inordinate number of blowouts or squeakers going for or against you.'

 

'It’s time to stop trying to outsmart ourselves. While we may be able to point to certain factors that have caused a team to have a large Pythagorean differential, it’s folly to use those facts as evidence that the trend will continue.'

 

'Nate Silver has noted that there is an ongoing problem in baseball – and in analysis, I would argue – in putting too much emphasis on current goings-on and not enough on the big picture. One might consider analysts trying to rationalize Pythagorean differentials as part of that problem.'

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/outsmarting-pythagoras/

 

 

[jimmer]

'Pythagorean record is a method for predicting a team’s winning percentage based on its runs scored and allowed. Bill James originally proposed the idea, and formulated that winning percentage was equal to the runs scored squared divided by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed. Since then, researchers have found a better exponent than two, one that varies based on the team’s run environment.'

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/pondering-pythagoras/

 

 

[jimmer]

Basically, those articles and some others like it, have determined that just because a team's Pythag says a team's record should have been such and such based on runs allowed and runs scored, doesn't mean they really should.  We had a few blowouts go our way against Detroit that likely shifted us a game or two and so on.

[ashbury]

 

We had a few blowouts go our way against Detroit that likely shifted us a game or two and so on.

Agreed. I am more worried about the 2015 offense than the 2014 run total would suggest, and not solely because guys like D Santana could have a lower BABIP.

[tobi0040]

The bullpen argument has come up quite a bit in Pythag discussions.  I looked at the best bullpens in 2014 and compared actual wins versus Pythag.  The top 10 ERA', Pythag had 6 more wins than the actual wins.  The top 10 by WAR had 13 more actual wins than pythag wins.  Not a huge trend here.

 

                              BY ERA  
    ERA             Pythag Wins        Actual Wins
1 Mariners 2.6      91                   87
2 Padres 2.73       75                  77
3 A's 2.91              99                  88
4 Nats 3                  97                 96
5 Giants 3.01         87                  88
6 O's 3.1                94                  96
7 Indians 3.12         83                 85
8 Mets 3.14             82                 79
9 Pirates 3.28          87                 88
10 Royals 3.3           84                 89
       Total                879                873

 

 

WAR  
  WAR                      Pythag Wins                    Actual Wins
1 Yankees  5.5                77                                    84
2 Nats 5.5                        97                                    96
3 Phillies 5.2                    73                                    73
4 Cubs 5.1                       71                                    73
5 Royals 5.1                     84                                    89
6 Padres 4.7                    75                                    77
7 Angels 4.5                     96                                    98
8 Braves 4.4                     78                                   79
9 Marlins 4.2                     78                                  77
10 Mariners 4.2                 91                                  87
                                       820                                   833