Article: Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May

[tobi0040]

 

Also, in 2014, 80% of our games started and 82% of our total innings went to pitchers on the opening day roster.  Only 32 starts went to other guys, 265 innings TOTAL between starters and relievers not on the opening day roster.  And that's despite the fact that one of our starters missed virtually the entire season with injury, another spent over a month on the DL, and another was traded with two months remaining.

 

That's why who makes the opening day roster is important.

 

Totally agree. 

 

Milone has to be really bad in order to be repaced, which he likely won't be.  He will be a 28 year old, #5 or #6 starter

Edited March 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[stringer bell]

While I don't disagree with the comments above, there are differences between last year and this. First and foremost, there is a new manager and pitching coach. Secondly, beyond Pelfrey, the young pitchers most of us are calling for are in line. I can't even remember the names of the guys who got starts, but they are all out of the way now. Will it make a difference? Time will tell.

[tobi0040]

 

While I don't disagree with the comments above, there are differences between last year and this. First and foremost, there is a new manager and pitching coach. Secondly, beyond Pelfrey, the young pitchers most of us are calling for are in line. I can't even remember the names of the guys who got starts, but they are all out of the way now. Will it make a difference? Time will tell.

 

Some of us thought May and Meyer were in line last year. Then along came Yohan Pino.  Kris Johnson.  Logan Darnell, etc. and the mainstay is the GM, who decides these things.

 

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

I wrote this in response to another article recently, but it bears repeating.

 

Each MLB team in 2014 on average used 9.6 starters.

 

So who starts the season is not as relevant as it may appear.

[Dantes929]

 

Apparently plenty of people care.  Some feel that when enduring lost and supposedly rebuilding seasons (such as last year and this year), that with having such a highly touted farm system, now is the perfect time to give some younger (and in Meyer's and May's cases, not so young) players time to see what they have.

OK,   We  can talk Meyer and May endlessly but I believe if May has a good month he will be back up.   Probably take two good months for Meyer.   Who else should be given time with the Twins?    Polanco?  in place of who?   Sano and Buxton?  After missing 2014 for all practical purposes I would not bring up either at this point and I don't think you would either.   Rosario?   Low average and zero walks this spring doesn't scream promotion to me but yes I would prefer him to what we have in center now.     Fans act like the Twins never promote anyone but Gibson, Santana, Vargas, HIcks and Arcia were hardly slow tracked.   I said all along that if they just included May in the rotation I would be happy and if they platooned Hicks and Schaefer I would be even happier.      So essentially I am not happy but that is just one move.   Not an all encompassing lack of moves.  

[jimmer]

How many years in the minors constitutes fast tracking? Slow tracking?  Normal tracking?

 

Before getting promoted to MLB: 

Vargas 6 years in the minors.

Hicks 5.

Danny Santana 7.

Arcia 5.

 

Rosario 5 years and still not promoted (though there's been some suspensions).

 

Are we going to call this fast-tracking?

 

Study came out a couple years ago that stated the Twins were the slowest to promote their players of all MLB teams.  

 

'The result is that some teams develop a reputation for especially aggressive or conservative tendencies in promoting their players. When I asked Kevin Goldstein to name an organization known for being conservative in this respect, he immediately mentioned the Twins, confirming my own impression.'

 

If that trend is changing, may take awhile to break the perception. 

Edited March 30, 2015 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

 

   Fans act like the Twins never promote anyone but Gibson, Santana, Vargas, HIcks and Arcia were hardly slow tracked.  

 

Well I'd hardly say Gibson was fast tracked.  He had TJ consideration so there is some room for benefit of doubt, but he also could have been called up in early 2013 instead of late 2013.  The team was already in the tank and Gibson could have had a shot at getting his struggles out of the way early in the year instead of late in the year and carry over into 2014. 

 

As for the other players listed, yes, they have been promoted earlier than expected (though only because they stayed so long in the lower levels) which is what has some of us perplexed.  Why are the position players allowed to come up and learn at the MLB level but not the pitchers?  Pitchers have shorter useful careers, they should be called up when they are young to get everything you can out of them. 

Edited March 30, 2015 by nicksaviking

[diehardtwinsfan]

How many years in the minors constitutes fast tracking? Slow tracking?  Normal tracking?

 

Before getting promoted to MLB: 

Vargas 6 years in the minors.

Hicks 5.

Danny Santana 7.

Arcia 5.

 

Rosario 5 years and still not promoted (though there's been some suspensions).

 

Are we going to call this fast-tracking?

 

Study came out a couple years ago that stated the Twins were the slowest to promote their players of all MLB teams.  

 

'The result is that some teams develop a reputation for especially aggressive or conservative tendencies in promoting their players. When I asked Kevin Goldstein to name an organization known for being conservative in this respect, he immediately mentioned the Twins, confirming my own impression.'

 

If that trend is changing, may take awhile to break the perception.

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

[jimmer]

 

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

You think so?  How many of those guys mentioned were 21/22 when they debuted?

 

The years in the minors I gave weren't from when they were signed, it's from when they debuted on the field. Most started at 17/18.  I'm not sure I'd call it fast for all those guys.  Some of those guys spent 2-3+ years in rookie ball alone.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

    Fans act like the Twins never promote anyone but Gibson, Santana, Vargas, HIcks and Arcia were hardly slow tracked.   I said all along that if they just included May in the rotation I would be happy and if they platooned Hicks and Schaefer I would be even happier.      So essentially I am not happy but that is just one move.   Not an all encompassing lack of moves.  

 

Santana only came up out of sheer desperation from multiple major-mis-assessments of personnel- in his 7th year with the club.

 

Gibson- TJ issues early on, but should have come up in 2013 before the "PJ, Cole and Pedro" show lingered into summer- he was clearly the best SP all year in Roc. (Albers notwithstanding).

 

Vargas also could have been called up in May 2014 when there was roster room and need for a bat- in his 6th year with the club.

 

Hicks was also promoted in his 6th year with the club.

[jokin]

 

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

 

MLB debut ages

Santana 24

Gibson 25

Vargas 24

Hicks 23

[jokin]

 

 and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

 

No.  The Twins moved too slowly with him...  with respect to moving him back down to AA/AAA after his first 50 PAs in 2013.  Leaving him hanging out to dry in a major league starting lineup when he clearly didn't belong bordered on cruel and unusual punishment.  He's never recovered.

 

The point being, it's an inexact science to know exactly who is and isn't "ready".  Only one way to find out for sure.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jokin

[tobi0040]

 

MLB debut ages

Santana 24

Gibson 25

Vargas 24

Hicks 23

 

Addendum:

 

Mauer - 20 (4 days from being 21)

Gomez - 21

Liriano - 21

Garza - 22

 

Gibson was probably going to debut at 22 or 23 before TJ

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wrote this in response to another article recently, but it bears repeating.

 

Each MLB team in 2014 on average used 9.6 starters.

 

So who starts the season is not as relevant as it may appear.

Of course, 80% of games started went to each team's top 5.  87% went to each team's top 6.  Each team had an average of 20.6 starts for pitchers outside their top 6.

 

Nobody here doubts that May and probably even Meyer will start a game in MLB in 2015.  The question is, how many?  And, what's the benefit of giving priority to Milone and likely Pelfrey?

[jokin]

 

Addendum:

 

Mauer - 20 (4 days from being 21)

Gomez - 21

Liriano - 21

Garza - 22

 

Gibson was probably going to debut at 22 or 23 before TJ

Everyone has acknowledged that Gibson was a special case, and having to go back in time to find exceptions to the current situation only makes the current situation more stark in its comparative inepitude.

[jimmer]

 

Everyone has acknowledged that Gibson was a special case, and having to go back in time to find exceptions to the current situation only makes the current situation more stark in its comparative inepitude.

Not to mention one (Gomez) didn't even make his MLB debut with us :-)  And the names brought up earlier (Santana, Hicks, Vargas, Gibson) were brought up as examples of people who were fast-tracked. So if THAT is what we call fast-tracking.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

 

Addendum:

 

Mauer - 20 (4 days from being 21)

Gomez - 21

Liriano - 21

Garza - 22

 

 

Three of which premeired over a decade ago.  Gomez on the otherhand debuted with the Mets; I have serious doubts the Twins would have done the same.

[tobi0040]

 

Three of which premeired over a decade ago.  Gomez on the otherhand debuted with the Mets; I have serious doubts the Twins would have done the same.

 

I really wanted May over Milone.  But which of these guys should have debuted earlier and at what age?

 

Trevor May.  Came to the Twins at 22.  As a 23 year old he had a 4.51 ERA in AA, not exactly allow me to skip AAA stats.  At 24 he had a good year in AAA and made his debut, starting 10 games.

 

Alex Meyer.  His first year with the Twins was as a 23 year old.  He came off high A in another system as a 22 year old.  He spent a year at AA.  The most innings he had ever pitched was 129 and he was shut down with shoulder pain.  At 24 he was in AAA, on the cusp of breaking through and had a horrific stretch and was blowing through 80 pitches before the 4th inning in some instances.  Got back on track, then was shut down again with shoulder pain.  As a 25 year old he could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training.

[tobi0040]

I am yet to find evidence the Twins delayed players repeatedly.  At best, they have rushed as many (Hicks) as guys that people think they should have brought up before (Meyer).  I think Gomez was rusehd at 22, even though he debuted someplace else.  He was not ready when he came up.

 

Vargas was in high A a year before he made his debut. He, like Hicks skipped AAA.  Danny Santana wasn't exactly putting up promote me multiple levels either...

[jokin]

 

 Danny Santana wasn't exactly putting up promote me multiple levels either...

 

You keep presenting evidence that supports the case to consider promoting faster.

[jokin]

 

 

 

I really wanted May over Milone.  But which of these guys should have debuted earlier and at what age?

 

Trevor May. 

Alex Meyer. 

 

Plenty of evidence that both should have been called up no later than last May or June (Gardy even wanted Meyer in his pen out of Spring Training) in a year when the Twins were spinning their wheels.  Why waste those starts on guys everyone knows were not part of the future?

Edited March 30, 2015 by jokin

[Dantes929]

 

How many years in the minors constitutes fast tracking? Slow tracking?  Normal tracking?

 

Before getting promoted to MLB: 

Vargas 6 years in the minors.

Hicks 5.

Danny Santana 7.

Arcia 5.

 

Rosario 5 years and still not promoted (though there's been some suspensions).

 

Are we going to call this fast-tracking?

 

Study came out a couple years ago that stated the Twins were the slowest to promote their players of all MLB teams.  

 

'The result is that some teams develop a reputation for especially aggressive or conservative tendencies in promoting their players. When I asked Kevin Goldstein to name an organization known for being conservative in this respect, he immediately mentioned the Twins, confirming my own impression.'

 

If that trend is changing, may take awhile to break the perception. 

For a period ending in 2010 the Twins had a pretty established veteran core.    The only help they got from the minors that I can recall were Casilla, Valencia and Garza.   There are probably more but I also don't recall any others that were banging the door down to get there.    Then in 2011 and 2012 the Twins started promoting all sorts of people that were doing poorly in the minors.    This makes me wonder about the timing and the criteria of the study you referenced.     What has been encouraging to me the last year or two is that we have been promoting guys that have actually been doing well in the minors.  Rosario did not have a great year after missing 50 games.   I had no problem with the Pino promotion because he was pitching great.   I think May would have been promoted earlier but for his calf injury.    Meyer is the only one I thought has earned a promotion over the last several years that has not been promoted and that was more from the Twins being over protective of his arm.    Who else has been pushing to get promoted?     We had a horrible farm system in 2011 and that was transitioned to a great one in 2013 mostly in the lower levels and we have started to see the transition and hopefully will continue to do so from a great system to a great team.    If Meyer, May and Berrios are all throwng great in July and the Twins rotation are all sitting at 4.5 plus I will share other fan's disgust.

[jokin]

 

...If Meyer, May and Berrios are all throwng great in July and the Twins rotation are all sitting at 4.5 plus I will share other fan's disgust.

 

How many variations on this sentence theme have been written over the last 3 seasons?

[tobi0040]

 

You keep presenting evidence that supports the case to consider promoting faster.

 

So everytime a player has a .719 OPS at AA we should promote him?  

 

What about a guy with an OPS of .844 in AA (hicks), who flops?

[jimmer]

 

How many variations on this sentence theme have been written over the last 3 seasons?

yeah, but NEXT year.

Edited March 30, 2015 by jimmer

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Alex Meyer.  His first year with the Twins was as a 23 year old.  He came off high A in another system as a 22 year old.  He spent a year at AA.  The most innings he had ever pitched was 129 and he was shut down with shoulder pain.  At 24 he was in AAA, on the cusp of breaking through and had a horrific stretch and was blowing through 80 pitches before the 4th inning in some instances.  Got back on track, then was shut down again with shoulder pain.  As a 25 year old he could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training.

 

Maybe so, but this evidence against Meyer could also be shaded in Meyer's favor: 

 

Meyer was pitching in high A as a 22 year old-------but he also pitched in college. 

 

Meyer spent a year at AA----- but, he pitched pretty well. Maybe an occasional erratic start, but no overall control problems looking at his stat line. In fact, Meyer did not have control problems when the Twins traded for him.

 

Meyer was shut down with shoulder pain------but it was only as a precautionary move. In other words, Meyer let the organization know immediately that he felt something unusual, just to be on the safe side. This is what we want in a valuable asset, correct? During the down time Meyer's agent announced that Meyer was healthy again. The Twins pronounced Meyer fully healthy. He returned to make two more starts and was sent to pitch the fall league. That might have been a close call and it was a win for the organization, no doubt. 

 

Meyer had a horrific stretch in AAA-----but so what. Unbeknownst to all of us, Meyer was never at any point under consideration for a promotion to the big leagues. Given what we know now, it's really hard to claim he was on the cusp of breaking through to the majors. Perhaps Meyer even knew that, and let his off field preparation flag. Perhaps Meyer just gets bored pitching to inferior hitters in AAA. Or perhaps there were other factors.

 

Meyer was shut down again with shoulder pain-------actually, Meyer was at his innings limit. 

 

Meyer could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training-------Meyer had one very nice outing sandwiched between an ok to poor outing and a very bad outing. But I did not see it in person so I defer to you and Nick. 

 

So all that said, and given that Meyer was not called up last year, was not afforded an opportunity this spring to start a game in the first inning, and that according to Molitor pitching out of the bullpen will not be an option, there's pretty strong evidence not that Meyer is pitching himself out of a job, but that the Twins are not interested in promoting him, for whatever reason. 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Plenty of evidence that both should have been called up no later than last May or June (Gardy even wanted Meyer in his pen out of Spring Training) in a year when the Twins were spinning their wheels.  Why waste those starts on guys everyone knows were not part of the future?

 

Two points.

 

First, even if they brought up Meyer and May too late, which I think is not a given, their would still be at least as many guys brought up too early than too late.  Hicks and Gomez were not ready.  I don't know anyone that would argue they were ready.

 

Second, in May of last year....May had just come off a 4.87 and 4.51 ERA in double A.   Then after 14 innings in Arizona (3.21 ERA) and four starts at AAA (4.97 ERA).  That was the appropriate time to promote him and by not promoting him at this point the Twins were slow?

 

Meyer had just pitched 70 innings at AA and was shut down with shoulder issues in 2013.  He had a 3.12 ERA in 26 fall league innings.  Meyer had a 3.69 in all of 19 innings at AAA.   That was the appropriate time?

 

So basically anytime a player has any time in AAA we are slow?  I just want to understand the rules.  Because it seems like no real trend exists here.  If we had guys that were ready and young, like Mauer, Liriano, Garza, etc. at 21 or 22 we would have been playing them. I look around and I don't see them.  That is the biggest issue versus being too slow IMO. 

 

Sano would have debuted last year if he was healthy (21).  I think Buxton will debut at 21 this year. And Berrios will probably get some starts this year at 21 as well.  I think the major story here is talent. 

 

Edited March 30, 2015 by tobi0040

[jokin]

 

Maybe so, but this evidence against Meyer could also be shaded in Meyer's favor: 

 

Meyer was pitching in high A as a 22 year old-------but he also pitched in college. 

 

Meyer spent a year at AA----- but, he pitched pretty well. Maybe an occasional erratic start, but no overall control problems looking at his stat line. In fact, Meyer did not have control problems when the Twins traded for him.

 

Meyer was shut down with shoulder pain------but it was only as a precautionary move. In other words, Meyer let the organization know immediately that he felt something unusual, just to be on the safe side. This is what we want in a valuable asset, correct? During the down time Meyer's agent announced that Meyer was healthy again. The Twins pronounced Meyer fully healthy. He returned to make two more starts and was sent to pitch the fall league. That might have been a close call and it was a win for the organization, no doubt. 

 

Meyer had a horrific stretch in AAA-----but so what. Unbeknownst to all of us, Meyer was never at any point under consideration for a promotion to the big leagues. Given what we know now, it's really hard to claim he was on the cusp of breaking through to the majors. Perhaps Meyer even knew that, and let his off field preparation flag. Perhaps Meyer just gets bored pitching to inferior hitters in AAA. Or perhaps there were other factors.

 

Meyer was shut down again with shoulder pain-------actually, Meyer was at his innings limit. 

 

Meyer could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training-------Meyer had one very nice outing sandwiched between an ok to poor outing and a very bad outing. But I did not see it in person so I defer to you and Nick. 

 

So all that said, and given that Meyer was not called up last year, was not afforded an opportunity this spring to start a game in the first inning, and that according to Molitor pitching out of the bullpen will not be an option, there's pretty strong evidence not that Meyer is pitching himself out of a job, but that the Twins are not interested in promoting him, for whatever reason. 

 

I nominate this post for Threadwinner

[tobi0040]

 

I nominate this post for Threadwinner

 

Jokin,

 

Can you list the players in the last six years or so we brought up too early and which we brought up too late?  I am just curious on the math from your perspective.  It is even at best for me. 

 

Too early: Hicks and Gomez.

 

Too late: May, but by maybe a month. Nothing glaring.

 

Not a strong opinion either way:   Hard to look back now and say Meyer was ready.  Santana and Vargas certainly did not warrant the move by their minor league numbers but they played well.  Arcia was up at 22 and has looked promising but has a ton on both sides of the ball to work on.

[jimbo92107]

 

May missed time early in camp because of the flu and only got 10 innings of work.  And the one thing to note on Milone from Paul Molitor "the staff was impressed by his ability to “minimize” damage.“  My gut feeling is sometime around mid-season, a couple teams with an injured starter or 2 will come a-call-in' for Milone and Pelfry.  I have faith in Molitor.

Yes, it's a bummer for May, but keep in mind that while May's control has improved, he still is prone to spells of inconsistency, where Milone has a record of being a mature control pitcher. If May continues to improve his command of the strike zone and to iron out his inconsistency, then soon he will be back in the starting rotation. I think Trevor May is going to be a workhorse starter for the Twins for several years, possibly on the same level as Kyle Gibson. It's just a matter of time, and probably not that much time.

 

As for Pelfrey taking over from Milone (should he falter), I get the feeling Pelfrey is done as a starter for the Twins. He wasn't that good even when he was healthy, and now he's older, and post TJ. I think the Twins are going to see what they can get out of him as a middle releiver, where he can cut loose more with his heater, not having to budget his energy like a starter. Of course I don't know if the Twins promised Pelfrey that he'd get the first shot at a rotation spot if somebody goes south, but they already know his history, and there's no reason to expect him to suddenly develop better stuff.

 

Pelfrey may do a spot start now and then if a somebody has a sore arm, but I think the fifth spot is destined to go to Trevor May.