Article: Bullpen Calculus

[nytwinsfan]

EXACTLY. This is the year to figure out what we have.

 

Another good point above, if you keep the young guys down, how do you know what you have? At some point, you need to give them a chance, like, in a year when you are NOT A CONTENDER, like the last two years, and pretty probably this year too.

 

[twinsajsf]

 

Tonkin and Achter could probably use more time, true, and Reed and Burdi definitely. But 2 of 3 of Milone, Pelfrey, and/or May need spots. I just don't buy it that any of those three will not be as good as Stauffer. Maybe May, but if so, that is because he is still working some things out to reach his much higher upside. Thielber may not make the pen and he has a noticeably better career FIP than Stauffer, playing in a more hitter friendly park. He's also a lefty. If Ryan really meant what he said about playing the best people, and thus was willing to bench Stauffer, I'd have no trouble with the signing. But that's BS, as we saw last year with Nolasco.

 

OMG, all this time I thought we were arguing about veterans vs. prospects.  Honestly, if it's down to Stauffer, Pelfrey and Milone for 1 spot, I don't even care . 

[nytwinsfan]

 

OMG, all this time I thought we were arguing about veterans vs. prospects.  Honestly, if it's down to Stauffer, Pelfrey and Milone for 1 spot, I don't even care . 

Well, in my original post I mentioned both prospects (being "on the doorstep") and Milone, Pelfrey, and May. To be fair to Ryan, he probably didn't expect all three of MPM, plus Graham and Boyer, to all pitch well, and that is a good problem to have. Again, it is not signing Stauffer per se I have a problem with, it is signing him and essentially guaranteeing him a spot, at least unless he sucks for months (like Nolasco did last year before he was taken out of the rotation).

[Jham]

 

Another good point above, if you keep the young guys down, how do you know what you have? At some point, you need to give them a chance, like, in a year when you are NOT A CONTENDER, like the last two years, and pretty probably this year too.

 

We pay scouts and managers to tell us when guys are ready and if they believe their minor league success will translate to big league success.  I agree, there are points when you need to see what you've got, but as of now, we're tied for first place.  If this season is another Jesse Crain-wreck, we'll have plenty of time to see prospect, fringe prospect, and AAAA all-stars alike.  In recent memory, Fien and before him Burton were a couple of guys who made Twins games worth watching past the 5th inning.  I'm not saying that Achter or Tonkin, etc. will never be pieces.  I'm saying that I'm not going to dump a roster guy like Stauffer to make sure they get big league innings just because one of them might be the next Tony Swarzak. 

[Jham]

 

Another good point above, if you keep the young guys down, how do you know what you have? At some point, you need to give them a chance, like, in a year when you are NOT A CONTENDER, like the last two years, and pretty probably this year too.

 

We pay scouts and managers to tell us when guys are ready and if they believe their minor league success will translate to big league success.  I agree, there are points when you need to see what you've got, but as of now, we're tied for first place.  If this season is another Jesse Crain-wreck, we'll have plenty of time to see prospect, fringe prospect, and AAAA all-stars alike.  In recent memory, Fien and before him Burton were a couple of guys who made Twins games worth watching past the 5th inning.  I'm not saying that Achter or Tonkin, etc. will never be pieces.  I'm saying that I'm not going to dump a roster guy like Stauffer to make sure they get big league innings just because one of them might be the next Tony Swarzak. 

[Jham]

Also, if Tonkin had looked remotely reliable in his several opportunities with the big league club, we probably don't even sign Stauffer who, by the way, wouldn't have be the first low-risk bull pen guy to come in on a one-year deal and earn an extension if that should happen.  If he's awful, trade him, release him, send him back to the NL and give someone else a shot.  It's harder for me to justify a spot for Pelfrey other than that he's apparently healthy, and he's been successful during spring training, but I understand people wanting to give him a limited shot before eating his salary, and dumping him for nothing in order to promote___________ .  

To be honest, I'm far more worried about Perkins closing out games than I am about the net difference between losing Pelfrey and blocking Tonkin.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In recent memory, Fien and before him Burton were a couple of guys who made Twins games worth watching past the 5th inning.

Fien was 28 when we signed him, with 6 years of potential MLB control and a career minor league 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.  Burton was 30, but still had 2 years of team control, and a career 129 ERA+ in 170 MLB innings.  Those were smart gambles of roster spots.

 

A potential 4-man bullpen monster of Duensing-Stauffer-Boyer-Pelfrey, in 2015?  Not so much.

Edited March 26, 2015 by spycake

[Jham]

I guess we just disagree on how important it is to get the Tonkin's of the world major league innings over keeping roster guys like Stauffer and maybe Pelfrey.  I'm not sure one is better than the other.  Given the fact that I don't have a ton of confidence in one over the other, I'd go with the option that still allows me to change over and go with option B if option A fails.  The other options couldn't beat out Caleb Thielbar or Lester Oliveras for a call-up last year.  So I lean a little more toward option A.

 

If we get to June and our rotation is Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, and May and our pen features Graham, Stauffer, Milone, Pelfrey and Alex Meyer and we've fielded calls or traded Duensing will you be mad?  

[James Richter]

 

They did this last year.  Nine guys saw first half 2014 bullpen action, and the only "stashed options guy" was Tonkin, for 12.1 innings (4% of the bullpen total).

 

Did it help the team win?  Did we wind up with additional assets?  Did it answer any questions about the future?

I would say they also stashed Pressly and, to some extent, Guerrier.

 

You may recall that the team had a rather better winning percentage in the 1st half last year, and the bullpen compared favorably in ERA and FIP relative to the rest of the league. What did they do wrong last spring?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would say they also stashed Pressly and, to some extent, Guerrier.

 

You may recall that the team had a rather better winning percentage in the 1st half last year, and the bullpen compared favorably in ERA and FIP relative to the rest of the league. What did they do wrong last spring?

Pressly may have been stashed, but he wasn't retrieved as your plan described. I think you overestimate how much those opporunities get spread around to the lower reaches of that depth chart.

 

If our bullpen was so valuable in the first half, why did we drop 4 veteran relievers who pitched 47% of our first half bullpen innings, and get nothing in return? That doesn't sound like a smart depth chart or balancing the present with the future -- it sounds like spinning their wheels, confirming that all of our mediocre relievers were in fact mediocre. We did it with a few of our offensive spots too. If our bullpen and offense performed well for a time, it was in spite of these decisions.

 

There should be at least one spot in this pen to help identify and develop a potential future asset, outside of the Rule 5 guy. That's all.

Edited March 26, 2015 by spycake

[Oxtung]

I could live with the 30 something's getting the innings if I truly believed they were brought in purely as stop gaps until our best relieving prospects are ready. If the Twins have given up on Tonkin, Achter, Pressly so be it. If the plan is to bridge the gap to Burdi, Reed, Melotakis, Chargois, Z. Jones, T. Jones (Yes I realize that a few of those guys are hurt but they seem to represent the best of The Twins prospects), I could accept that. This organization is in love with mediocre hard working veterans, and while there is nothing wrong with some vets on the pitching staff, there is something wrong when the vast majority of the staff is past their prime. This is a rebuilding team after all. So I think my main problem here is that this is a reoccurring theme (yes there are a few counter examples like Gibson and Hicks) and I see no reason to expect that cycle to change.

 

Does anybody think next year will be any different than this year?

[Willihammer]

The Twins now have what, six pitchers age 25 or older slated for AAA (Oliveros, Tonkin, Hamburger, Achter, Pressly, Meyer) - seven if May is optioned? I mean, Terry Ryan likes the mantra "you can never have too much pitching." Yes you can!

 

Do the Twins know what a velocity aging curve looks like? Do they understand that velocity is critical for strikeouts? Do they appreciate the strikeout YET? I mean come on. This really gets at the two worst perceptions about the Twins - that they are behind the curve with respect to strikeouts (which is reinforced by fact) and the perception that they prefer veteran mediocrity to more talented, younger players.

 

What are we doing here. Are we just trying to complete the games. Eat the innings. Go through the motions. Or are we trying to win? Get Burdi up. Get whoever else throws strikes at 97+ up. Show Stauffer and Duensing the door. Flip a coin and send one of Pelfrey or Milone packing.

 

There is too much pitching!

Edited March 27, 2015 by Willihammer

[Rosterman]

The elephants in the room are definitely Pelfrey and Stauffer.

 

I would not lose Graham tokeep anyone of the names suggested.

 

Hamburger is a solid reserve to stash at Rochester. He is not going anywhere.

 

Boyer is a placeholder if nothing else until Burdi, Reed, Jones or someone graduates early.

 

Thielbar has options. I'm not sure how much time Thompson ahs with the Twins, and if that time is needed. Both are lefties and teams are looking for lefties. Trade one or the other and send the other down. We only need tow lefties (Milone) in the bullpen. But, can Duensing face more than a batter or two anymore?

 

Just went out that the Twins have two spots to fill with someone. Jared Burton is available. Sigh. So is Joe Beimel. Double-sigh. Didn't I read that Jose Mijares is looking for a job? Maybe we can talk Cole DeVries into returning. Anyone hear from Pedro Hernandez, by the way.

 

Where is Jesse Crain when you need him, and why did Pat Neshek blow off the cheap Twins?

 

Ultimately, it really shouldnt be that hard. Get rid of all the also rans and let's keep Pryor, Oliveros and Darnell in the bullpen for now.

[stringer bell]

Of the names listed in this thread here is my opinion:  I think Darnell and Achter could be 40-man casualties and I think that would be fine.  There is a pretty large number of guys who didn't make it who could be decent contributors for the Twins (don't give up on them):  Oliveros, Pryor, Pressly, Tonkin.  Hamburger has mostly looked good for the Twins, I think he is the last cut.  Graham has made the club, but could knock himself off the ledge with a bad performance or two in the next week.  I wouldn't want more than one fifth starter candidate in the bullpen.  If Pelfrey could add a couple ticks to the fastball and utilize his new change-up, he might actually work well there.  Milone should either make the rotation or go to Rochester.  Boyer probably makes the club, too, on merit, unless the Twins decide to keep two #5 starter losers in the 'pen.  I am not a big Thielbar fan, if he is pushed out this spring, so be it.  He should be able to get another chance if he performs well in Rochester.  So, if I am in charge (and you can't unmake the moves already made) the bullpen is Pelfrey, Graham, Boyer, Fien, Duensing, Stauffer, Perkins.  Short leashes for most of those guys, with a nearly equal number champing at the bit in Rochester.  Midseason could bring Reed, Burdi and the rest.

[Platoon]

 

Do the Twins know what a velocity aging curve looks like? Do they understand that velocity is critical for strikeouts? Do they appreciate the strikeout YET? I mean come on. This really gets at the two worst perceptions about the Twins - that they are behind the curve with respect to strikeouts (which is reinforced by fact) and the perception that they prefer veteran mediocrity to more talented, younger players.

 

Your post touches on the real elephant in the room. The FO. They are in love with aging, seemingly safe veterans. And in certain times on certain teams, that's the way to go. But this is not one of those teams. It's been in the dregs for years, and that is only after cleaning up in a weak division for years before that. Mediocrity has been a way of life here. And hard decisive action is hardly taken. While not a player this thread is specifically discussing, I will use Kendrys Morales as an example. The Twins in their faux playoff run told a flyer on Morales. The team really did not need an out of shape, slow footed, DH. It needed a solid starter, and someone who could catch a fly ball. Luckily Morales stunk his way out of town, if he had hit over .230 and not jogged to first base we would have signed him to a 3 year extension. My point is, I have no problem with trying to get some value, on a short leash, from some veterans to start the season. IF, I had any faith that when inevitably some did not work out, they would be moved. The decision to bring up younger players seems to be made out of desperation only. I don't see many instances of trading a "adequate" veteran to make room for a high upside prospect.

[nicksaviking]

 

We pay scouts and managers to tell us when guys are ready and if they believe their minor league success will translate to big league success.  I agree, there are points when you need to see what you've got, but as of now, we're tied for first place.  If this season is another Jesse Crain-wreck, we'll have plenty of time to see prospect, fringe prospect, and AAAA all-stars alike.  In recent memory, Fien and before him Burton were a couple of guys who made Twins games worth watching past the 5th inning.  I'm not saying that Achter or Tonkin, etc. will never be pieces.  I'm saying that I'm not going to dump a roster guy like Stauffer to make sure they get big league innings just because one of them might be the next Tony Swarzak. 

 

So young bullpen arms shouldn't be called upon unless the team is in the toilet?  That doesn't sound like a way to breed a winning atmosphere.

 

There's always room for an arguement regarding potential vs past production but the "vets" in the pen hardly have a track record to carry much weight. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Could Nuñez or possibly *ahem* Aaron Hicks be dealt for more piching?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/twins-looking-for-relief-pitching.html

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/297735661.html

 

Other guys that could be moved-

Herrmann or Fryer ? Milone or Pelfrey?

[ashbury]

 

Could Nuñez or possibly *ahem* Aaron Hicks be dealt for more piching?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/twins-looking-for-relief-pitching.html

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/297735661.html

 

Other guys that could be moved-

Herrmann or Fryer ? Milone or Pelfrey?

Suppose some other team offered their version of Fryer to you. Which Twins prospect would you dangle to obtain him? Or Milone, or Pelfrey, or ...

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well, if the goal is to acquire a relief pitcher that is better than Tim Stauffer, I think Fryer is not an unreasonable starting point.

 

If they want someone especially good.... Yes, they might have to trade away someone like Escobar, which to me would be a mistake.

 

"Moved" includes being put on waivers in my mind. As in, the Twins could claim a pitcher that someone else discarded and then waive Aaron Thompson, or Fryer, or whomever... Still improving the bullpen, without really giving up much in the deal.

 

[ashbury]

Fryer isn't on the 40-man so waiving isn't part of the process. Thompson is, and simply moving him off with no compensation isn't the end of the world if it's to keep someone they like better on the 25-man, such as Hamburger. If something can be obtained in trade, so much the better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins now have what, six pitchers age 25 or older slated for AAA (Oliveros, Tonkin, Hamburger, Achter, Pressly, Meyer) - seven if May is optioned?

With all except Hamburger on the 40-man roster too.

 

If we expand the list, we have recent hard thrower Pryor, plus possibly Thompson & Thielbar, and Darnell the starter too.  All 25 or above, all currently on the 40-man roster.

 

Admittedly a couple should be dropped from the roster in the next week, but if the goal was to sort through them at spring training before thinning the herd and establishing a good depth chart, it should be noted that the youngest and probably highest upside of this group were also the first to be optioned out of big league camp.  Hamburger, Thompson, and Thielbar, all age 28 with past MLB experience, are the only three in this group to even last into the last two weeks of spring training (excepting May who's starting, of course).

[Kwak]

The Twins don't need to trade for a mediocre relief pitcher. If the "veterans" Ryan bought are unacceptable, then start using the options on the minor leaguers. A platoon of RPs were drafted recently, (plus those already on hand) use these guys. Each has a total of three years of options--use them!

[Mike Sixel]

 

With all except Hamburger on the 40-man roster too.

 

If we expand the list, we have recent hard thrower Pryor, plus possibly Thompson & Thielbar, and Darnell the starter too.  All 25 or above, all currently on the 40-man roster.

 

Admittedly a couple should be dropped from the roster in the next week, but if the goal was to sort through them at spring training before thinning the herd and establishing a good depth chart, it should be noted that the youngest and probably highest upside of this group were also the first to be optioned out of big league camp.  Hamburger, Thompson, and Thielbar, all age 28 with past MLB experience, are the only three in this group to even last into the last two weeks of spring training (excepting May who's starting, of course).

 

Not exactly the traditional rebuild process......

[Shane Wahl]

Small sample size in spring leads Twins astray again.

 

I hope that this isn't an appropriate headline, but I am afraid it might be. And thus Mike Pelfrey and Blaine Boyer make the roster. No offense to the latter, and maybe this has just been a little showcase and buildup for other teams to claim him. 

 

I would really prefer May in the rotation and Oliveros in the bullpen to add strikeouts and a modicum of intimidation for batters.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another question is:

 

which of Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, or Gibson moves to the bullpen when Meyer is promoted into the rotation?

[Shane Wahl]

Calculus, indeed.

 

I was damn good at math through 10th grade. Then some higher algebra came along and I was like "what?" Then senior year A.P. Calculus *destroyed my brain* even with the top notch teachers at old BHS (that's Bemidji, not other poser B-towns in Minnesota).

 

Through about "10th grade" in the Gardenhire era, the Twins had successful bullpens and always the promise of able guys to overfill the bullpen. By now, however, my brain can't deal with this current mess. I really don't like moving any of these 5th starters to the bullpen. May would be wasted as a long man and would get out of whack in a MR role. Pelfrey may only be successful in an MR role. Milone is going to get shelled either way.

 

And then there is this race for mediocrity between Boyer, Thielbar, Thompson, Hamburger, and Graham. Four spots between these eight guys? And that's after Duensing, and Stauffer. Why? How? 

Luckily, there are guys like Oliveros and Tonkin there, and there are those recently drafted hard-throwers in AA and A+. So maybe the headache will end within a year.

 

It would be how I then went to BSU and didn't have to take a math class in their honors program and could take Symbolic Logic (a Philosophy course, sorta) instead.