Mauer/Dozier

[stringer bell]

Even with Mauer's poor season in 2014, he and Dozier rate as two of the best offensive weapons the Twins have in 2015. What interests me is how different they are in becoming an offensive force:

 

Dozier is a middle round draft choice, middle infielder, who changed his approach considerably and now has led the club in home runs two years running despite his average build and 5'10" frame. Mauer has long been lauded as having a beautiful swing. He is all of 6'5" and weighs well over 200 pounds. Mauer's approach has not really wavered since making the big leagues before he could buy beer. A first overall pick in the MLB draft, Joe almost always takes the first pitch, works the count, lets pitches get deep and hits a large number of balls to the opposite field. After minimal success his first go-round with the Twins, Dozier has adjusted by making the inside part of the plate his power zone. He started slow in 2013, but started hitting for power almost immediately after being counseled to "let it go" on pitches to pull. Dozier's spray chart shows him to be a dead-pull hitter. Dozier strikes out frequently (led the team with 129 last year) and makes a high number of fly ball and pop-up outs. Mauer's rep is that he fans infrequently, and never pops up. Mauer's K numbers have risen consistently in the last few years. Mauer has had one big home run season (28 in 2009) and has consistently disappointed those looking for more homers from him.

 

In the big picture of things, both approaches have worked for the individuals. It goes to show that there is more than one way to succeed. Which guy should adjust next? My vote is for Mauer, so that he can pull the ball and with more authority.

[jimmer]

I think as we see Mauer getting farther away from his concussion symptoms, he'll be more like himself. Guy posted a WRC+ in the mid 120s in the 2nd half (and an OPS over .800 in the 2nd half).  He had a very good 2012 and a very good 2013 before he got hurt and I doubt he's just dropped off the face of the planet in such a short time.  His hitting profile doesn't suggest he would.

[gunnarthor]

My first thought on this was that TF was perfectly made for Dozier's swing - and hurts Mauer's.  But Dozier's home/road splits are nearly identical so maybe it isn't as simple as that.  But clearly, RH pull power is being rewarded a bit for him.  

 

I'm probably a bit down on Mauer compared to most but and don't think he'll make the adjustments necessary to hit much better than a .080 iso at this point.  But if he can get on-base at a .400 clip again, he should be fine.

[KGB]

I think the most important aspect for Mauer is to control his strike out rate. He had career highs in strike outs the last 3 year (2012-13.7%, 2013-17.5% and 2014 18.5%). In 2013 he was helped by a career best BABIP, which if it was at his career average, he would have hit below .300.

 

Hopefully he can adjust and provide the offensive numbers to help the team.

[bird]

I'm a little down on Mauer because I don't see anything in his history to suggest a willingness or aptitude for making adjustments, and I'm guessing he needs to make some to improve his offensive performance.

 

I listened to Keith Law yesterday on MLB, responding to a question about which factors slow the game down most. Without hesitation, he said players taking pitches early in the count and working deep into the count. He described it as counter-productive, in that it is not resulting in more walks, just many more strikeouts. His theory is that pitchers are too adept at throwing quality two-strike pitches now to make this strategy effective, especially when the guy being removed because of a high pitch count gets replaced by some unhittable monster (not Law's words exactly).

 

My biggest complaint about Mauer is that he's inventing a new category for me. Instead of having an empty batting average, I'm perceiving him to have an empty OBP. Swing away, Joey!!

[jimmer]

To OBP or not to OBP:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/55947/brandon-phillips-and-joey-votto-disagree

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm a little down on Mauer because I don't see anything in his history to suggest a willingness or aptitude for making adjustments, and I'm guessing he needs to make some to improve his offensive performance.

I'd argue that he made some kind of adjustments after 2011, when his K's started climbing and his overall batting line rebounded to his career excellent ~140 wRC+ levels.  The adjustment probably just wasn't as big/obvious as many suggested here?

 

Now that his line fell again in 2014, I do wonder if he needs to make additional adjustments, though, and what those might be.

 

If he's finally comfortable again after the effects of the concussion and position change, and he's simply an OBP-heavy ~120 wRC+ type player as suggested by his second half performance -- does that even require adjustment?  Or is that just who he should be as he turns 32 years old?

[bird]

Fair or not, Mauer was lauded as a superstar, the face of the franchise, the man who built Target Field, blah blah blah. His agent negotiated a contract for him based on an expectation that greatly surpasses what we've gotten. And sure, we should be kind and gentle and cut him all kinds of slack and perhaps accept a different reality as to the type of player he is and his value to the club. While I'm disappointed with what we got and unhappy that he failed to live up to my expectations for him, I'm not a Mauer-basher per se. BUT...he can't make more obvious and productive adjustments than what we've seen, at least so far?

 

And I'd feel so much better about him and the $90M+ still owed him if he proved to be a philanthropic force in our community. I applaud what he's done, but I'd love to see his family do even more for the community with all that loot he's getting based on a player we didn't get to see. This may be too judgmental, and maybe he's doing more than we know.

[Willihammer]

Fair or not, Mauer was lauded as a superstar, the face of the franchise, the man who built Target Field, blah blah blah. His agent negotiated a contract for him based on an expectation that greatly surpasses what we've gotten. And sure, we should be kind and gentle and cut him all kinds of slack and perhaps accept a different reality as to the type of player he is and his value to the club. While I'm disappointed with what we got and unhappy that he failed to live up to my expectations for him, I'm not a Mauer-basher per se. BUT...he can't make more obvious and productive adjustments than what we've seen, at least so far?

 

And I'd feel so much better about him and the $90M+ still owed him if he proved to be a philanthropic force in our community. I applaud what he's done, but I'd love to see his family do even more for the community with all that loot he's getting based on a player we didn't get to see. This may be too judgmental, and maybe he's doing more than we know.

I heard he spends all his money on hookers and lobbyists

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I heard he spends all his money on hookers and lobbyists

That's how most stadiums get public financing, as I understand.

[D. Hocking]

I did hear on the radio the last few days (on Ruesse?) where someone reported he has been spending a lot of time in practice trying to work hitting more to right field, so maybe we will find out he has made a few adjustments.  I guess time will tell.

 

Regarding being a philanthropic force in the community - who really knows what players actually contribute in private.  I suspect some make a big show at the official events and don't do much more and some give a lot that we never hear about.  It would not completely shock me with Joe's persona that he is not public with everything he does (or he could be siphoning money from Gillette's hospital, his buddy's charity event - and the Jimmy Lee rec center to fund his milk addiction).

[Willihammer]

That's how most stadiums get public financing, as I understand.

Yep, see all you gotta do is follow the money.

 

I'm pretty sure Denny Hecker is helping Mauer behind the scenes to sell Chevy's too.

[Dantes929]

It sure looked to me like Mauer was trying to pull the ball more in the 1st half of the season and it sure looked to me like he was swinging harder.    It also looked to me like he went back to his old ways in the 2nd half and hit the ball harder even with the shift and it looks to me like his stat splits support this. 

I'm not saying he should try to hit the ball to the opposite field but if that is where he has success he shouldn't shy away from it because of others perception of him..     Just like Morneau and many others I have seen, I hate when he tries to pull unpullable pitches.    Dozier changed to his benefit because what he was doing wasn't working.   What Mauer was doing was working and he changed to his detriment and fans want him to change even more in that direction?   

I guess his OBP was somewhat empty in 2012 and 2013 but that is largely a result of no one hitting ahead or behind him.   Prior to 2011 and hopefully 2015 and beyond there is no such thing as an empty OBP.   With guys getting on base before him and good hitters behind him having a great OBP is never empty but rather worth even more.   Just my two cents.    If he goes back to .320 with 49 doubles and .400 OBP I don't care if he never hits another home run in his life..

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Interesting article on Michael Brantley of Cleveland on how he changed his approach to hitting and resulted in more power and average. He used to have a Mauer like approach and his father finally convinced him to be more aggresive on hitters pitches by not taking so many and having to hit pitchers pitches. Hmmmmmmmm

[jimmer]

 

Interesting article on Michael Brantley of Cleveland on how he changed his approach to hitting and resulted in more power and average. He used to have a Mauer like approach and his father finally convinced him to be more aggresive on hitters pitches by not taking so many and having to hit pitchers pitches. Hmmmmmmmm

because something works for one guy doesn't mean it will for others. Additionally, Brantley was never as successful as Mauer has been with Mauer's approach either. Not even close.

 

I'm not sure the comparison means anything.  And, you know, Brantley has ONE year of success like that offensively.

[nicksaviking]

 

And I'd feel so much better about him and the $90M+ still owed him if he proved to be a philanthropic force in our community. I applaud what he's done, but I'd love to see his family do even more for the community with all that loot he's getting based on a player we didn't get to see. This may be too judgmental, and maybe he's doing more than we know.

 

Perhaps it's the pessimist in me, but I tend to trust guys less when they do their philanthropy while the cameras are rolling.  I find the word-of-mouth stories of good deeds more endearing.  For me there's a "look at me" feeling of paying to improve their public image when celebrities bring news crews with them.

 

Kind of like hearing the "charitable" contributions Walmart or big tobacco make only to find out that the money they spent advertising their good deeds dwarfed their actual donations tenfold.

[Thegrin]

Remember the days when Mauer and Morneux always seemed to be knocking balls to the gaps with runners on base ?  This is what we need from Mauer and Dozier and Vargas and Plouffe and Arcia.

We need hits with RISP. 

[jimmer]

 

Remember the days when Mauer and Morneux always seemed to be knocking balls to the gaps with runners on base ?  This is what we need from Mauer and Dozier and Vargas and Plouffe and Arcia.

We need hits with RISP. 

Mauer had 146 PAs with RISP last year.  He hit .290/.466/.467 (OPS of .933)  He walked 37 times and K'd 26 times. In other words, he really stepped up with RISP as opposed to when there weren't RISP.

 

He had 241 PAs with men on bases.  He hit .285/.419/..404 (OPS of .823).  Only walked 46 times, striking out 47 times.  In other words, he did pretty well with men on as well.

 

All of this seems pretty darn good.

 

He didn't do well with bases empty.

 

 

[curt1965]

I am a Mauer fan, but if he changes anything, to me it should be his passive style in the early counts. I whole heartedly agree with those who do not like his taking the first pitch 98.9% of the time. Furthermore, if the first pitch happens to be a ball, (and the 2nd one too), he'll take the next 85 mile/hour get over FB nearly every time! Time and time again, I hear announcers say that successful hitters should crush the ball when they get into a favorable counts. It seems logical to me that if you are most always starting in the hole at Strike One and Strike Two every count, even great hitters like Joe Mauer are going to have a tough time, and it would seem likely that this is a factor is his increasing K percentage. Furthermore, I don't think Mauer will ever be a natural pull hitter or home run guy. That's not him. Defensive positioning probably has taken 20 or 30 points off his average, and I think has gotten into his head, too. Combining that with the concussion, the last couple of years have been tough. Here's hoping he makes a few minor adjustments (hit that first gimme), and has a little luck this year.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm less worried about the concussions and far more worried about the back issues that have seemed to come up the last few years.  That could explain a lot of his issues.  (Diminished bat speed)

[bird]

 

Mauer had 146 PAs with RISP last year.  He hit .290/.466/.467 (OPS of .933)  He walked 37 times and K'd 26 times. In other words, he really stepped up with RISP as opposed to when there weren't RISP.

 

He had 241 PAs with men on bases.  He hit .285/.419/..404 (OPS of .823).  Only walked 46 times, striking out 47 times.  In other words, he did pretty well with men on as well.

 

All of this seems pretty darn good.

 

He didn't do well with bases empty.

That's too many walks.

[KGB]

 

Defensive positioning probably has taken 20 or 30 points off his average, and I think has gotten into his head, too. 

 

The shifts have not affected his BABIP, so I think the impact is minimal.  But I completely agree with you that if he just makes some adjustments, he should bounce back this year.