New draft thread

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Also, the Twins aren't on Newman at 6. Not even a little.

[gunnarthor]

Jeremy,

 

Do you know if any of the top guys are Close guys and, if so, how it might affect the Astros picking before us?

[Hrbowski]

 

Also, the Twins aren't on Newman at 6. Not even a little.

I didn't think they were, but he reminds me of Knoblauch.

[Hrbowski]

 

True, but how often is it that comparisons to greats turn out to be busts? Too often for my tastes, I'm afraid. Not that I'm saying Tucker will be a bust. I just don't think we're going to have 7 players from the 2015 draft who turn out to be as good as/better than Ted Williams.

The draft is built on dreams, and when someone who comes along with a swing like Ted Williams you have to look carefully, I wasn't saying that we were going to have seven players who were as good as Ted, I was just saying that I don't think it is as bad of a class as some people are saying.

[Hrbowski]

 

Also, the Twins aren't on Newman at 6. Not even a little.

Do you have any idea of whether they are in on Fulmer?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Do you have any idea of whether they are in on Fulmer?

 

I would assume they're going to see enough of all of the highly-regarded college pitchers. From the sounds of it, Boston (at 7) seems to be his ceiling, but I'll dig more into him in the coming weeks. He won't be in my Top 8 that I post later this week.

[markos]

Yesterday Chris Crawford posted his top-75 draft list. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26118

 

No real surprises that I could see. He has Rodgers, Tate, Swanson as his top three. He is a little lower on Funkhouser (#8) and Bregman (#10) than others, and a little higher on Nikorak (#6).

 

Overall, I think all of the recent draft rankings can be summed up by:

Rodgers is the consensus #1

Tate is consensus top-3

The three college SS and Happ are all top-10, ordered by personal preference.

Funkhouser is 5-10 right now, but moving up.

The high school arms (Allard, Nikorak) and outfielders (Plummer, Cameron, Tucker) all slot somewhere in the 5-15 range, ordered by personal preference

The Vanderbilt starters (Buehler and Fulmer) are both top-15, with the one you like better in the top-10.

The TJ guys (Aiken and Matuella) can slot wherever the heck you want.

 

Other than Rodgers (and probably Tate), there is a decent chance that every other player could be available for the Twins at #6. Certainly makes things interesting.

 

[Hrbowski]

Today I did a blog post about Mahtomedi righty Sean Hjelle, and not much later Doogie tweeted this about him:

 

"Mahtomedi 6-11 righty starter Sean Hjelle has had the #MNTwins, Reds, and White Sox scout him recently. Hits 86-89. Kentucky commit."

 

He said he is 6-11, but he is really 7-0. He also was 85-90, but there might be a bit of a difference between radar guns.

[Hrbowski]

Has anybody heard anything about Kody Clemens?

[markos]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/25/8497253/2015-mlb-draft-should-carson-fulmer-be-a-starter-or-reliever

 

Interesting piece from John Sickels about Carson Fulmer. Lots of draft analysts seem to be putting Fulmer in the reliever bucket, but Sickels is skeptical. Along those lines, there have been several pitchers (Chris Sale, Matt Harvey) who dropped because the consensus was that they would end as relievers, only to turn into really good starters. 

 

Every year Sickels does a "shadow draft" as the Twins. He is strongly considering Fulmer at #6.

[Hrbowski]

Since this thread is not titled "2015 Draft Thread" I thought I could post this here. It is nice to see two local guys in the top ten!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/20162017-mlb-draft-rankings-ridiculously-early-edition/

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Since this thread is not titled "2015 Draft Thread" I thought I could post this here. It is nice to see two local guys in the top ten!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/20162017-mlb-draft-rankings-ridiculously-early-edition/

 

Ha.......and yes, I glanced at that list too. I just love Kiley's work.

[maxisagod]

 

Since this thread is not titled "2015 Draft Thread" I thought I could post this here. It is nice to see two local guys in the top ten!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/20162017-mlb-draft-rankings-ridiculously-early-edition/

Both Shore and Boldt in the top 10. There 's going to be a lot of "why didn't the Twins sign local talent questions" If they stay there. 

[maxisagod]

 

Both Shore and Boldt in the top 10. There 's going to be a lot of "why didn't the Twins sign local talent questions" If they stay there. 

Oh, and AJ PUK is at #14, Iowa boy. 

[Hrbowski]

http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2015-mlb-draft-10-college-players-rise-week-10/45359

 

It sounds like Stewart is having a good season.

[markos]

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/25/8497253/2015-mlb-draft-should-carson-fulmer-be-a-starter-or-reliever

 

Interesting piece from John Sickels about Carson Fulmer. Lots of draft analysts seem to be putting Fulmer in the reliever bucket, but Sickels is skeptical. Along those lines, there have been several pitchers (Chris Sale, Matt Harvey) who dropped because the consensus was that they would end as relievers, only to turn into really good starters. 

 

Every year Sickels does a "shadow draft" as the Twins. He is strongly considering Fulmer at #6.

 

Kieth Law just posted some notes about Fulmer. http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=3884

 

He is emphatic that Fulmer is a reliever:

 

The thing about Fulmer is there's no chance he can start with his current delivery and arm action. There's no starter in the majors who pitches like that, no one with a comparable level of effort. Fulmer is max effort every time out, and it's a testament to his strength and athleticism that he hasn't gotten hurt.

 

He has Fulmer in the back of his top-50 (#43), and said he wouldn't consider him until the sandwich round at the earliest.

 

Also, he likes SS Swanson and considers him a top-5 pick. 

 

Draft experts seems awfully polarized with Fulmer. Callis tweeted the other day that in his opinion Fulmer is definitely a reliever. It will be interesting to see where he and Mayo rank him when they release their updated draft rankings tomorrow.

[gunnarthor]

mlbpipeline redid their draft and went to 100 players.  Really wish we had a second pick in the early 30s like when we snatched Berrios.  Oh well.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=draft

 

It looks like a consensus top three of Rodgers, Tate and Swanson has emerged.  After that, it get's messy.

 

Aiken dropped to 22, Matuella 23.  Allard 16.  They like Nikorak at 6 now and I'd be happy with that pick if it happened.  I don't want Fulmer or Buehler.

[gunnarthor]

From Callis' article: 

 

"While there's depth in this year's Draft crop, it's thinner at the top than teams picking there would hope. Rodgers might not have gone higher than fifth in 2014, while Tate and Swanson could have gone outside the top 10 selections."

 

Twins have the 6th pick and then the 73rd and 80th. They lost their second round pick for signing Santana.  Ouch.  

 

I was hoping that Kyle Cody could have pitched himself into the top 10, instead, the Alex Meyer-like pitcher might have been available with our second round pick.  

[nytwinsfan]

 

From Callis' article: 

 

"While there's depth in this year's Draft crop, it's thinner at the top than teams picking there would hope. Rodgers might not have gone higher than fifth in 2014, while Tate and Swanson could have gone outside the top 10 selections."

 

Twins have the 6th pick and then the 73rd and 80th. They lost their second round pick for signing Santana.  Ouch.  

 

I was hoping that Kyle Cody could have pitched himself into the top 10, instead, the Alex Meyer-like pitcher might have been available with our second round pick.  

Ouch indeed. Sigh.

[markos]

 

From Callis' article: 

 

"While there's depth in this year's Draft crop, it's thinner at the top than teams picking there would hope. Rodgers might not have gone higher than fifth in 2014, while Tate and Swanson could have gone outside the top 10 selections."

 

Twins have the 6th pick and then the 73rd and 80th. They lost their second round pick for signing Santana.  Ouch.  

 

I was hoping that Kyle Cody could have pitched himself into the top 10, instead, the Alex Meyer-like pitcher might have been available with our second round pick.  

Mayo's article touches on the same depth: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/120823800/injuries-impact-landscape-of-top-100-draft-prospects-list

 

 

 

While that might be discomforting to some, there are others who see opportunity. There might be consensus that there hasn't been top-of-the-Draft separation, but there is a sense that if there isn't quality in terms of elite-level talent, there is quantity a bit further down.
"I think it's outstanding," a second NL scouting director said. "I think there's tons of depth. If you pick mid-first round through the fifth round, it's exceptional. It's not great to be picking at the top of the Draft. I think it's an exceptional year for talent, but the talent at the top is not what people that are selecting that high in the Draft would want for franchise-type players."

Perhaps not the best year to be missing a 2nd round pick.

[Hrbowski]

Jon Harris rose quite a bit, I wonder if he is in play at six.

[gunnarthor]

 

Jon Harris rose quite a bit, I wonder if he is in play at six.

Sounds more like a Kyle Gibson type to me.  Not a bad pitcher but he's not going to be a front of the rotation guy either.  He'd probably sign for a little less than slot but without a 2nd round pick, that doesn't seem the way to go.  I think they should still aim for BPA and I don't think it's him.

 

Course, he could turn out to be the Wacha of this draft and everyone saying "why'd we pass on him?"  

[markos]

 

Sounds more like a Kyle Gibson type to me.  Not a bad pitcher but he's not going to be a front of the rotation guy either.  He'd probably sign for a little less than slot but without a 2nd round pick, that doesn't seem the way to go.  I think they should still aim for BPA and I don't think it's him.

 

Course, he could turn out to be the Wacha of this draft and everyone saying "why'd we pass on him?"  

I mostly agree with this, but I heard Jim Callis on NatsGM podcast yesterday say that he can make a case that Harris is the top college pitcher in this draft. If I recall correctly, he basically argued that... 

1) He has the best combination of size (6'4"), build (can still fill out), stuff (as good as Funkhouser), and control.

2) He is definitely a starter, unlike the others with questions of delivery or size (Fulmer, Beuhler, et al).

3) He has succeeded as a starter for a while now (unlike Tate).

 

I definitely don't think he would be BPA at #6, but Callis's analysis was enough for me that I won't hate the pick if it happens.

[gunnarthor]

 

I mostly agree with this, but I heard Jim Callis on NatsGM podcast yesterday say that he can make a case that Harris is the top college pitcher in this draft. If I recall correctly, he basically argued that... 

1) He has the best combination of size (6'4"), build (can still fill out), stuff (as good as Funkhouser), and control.

2) He is definitely a starter, unlike the others with questions of delivery or size (Fulmer, Beuhler, et al).

3) He has succeeded as a starter for a while now (unlike Tate).

 

I definitely don't think he would be BPA at #6, but Callis's analysis was enough for me that I won't hate the pick if it happens.

Can't argue with any of that.

[cmb0252]

This draft class was never strong but it has definitely gone to hell. Before the year I was excited by the chance to get one of the 3 LHPers (Aiken\Allard\Kirby) but....well you know. Nikorak and some of the college bats are starting to look pretty good right now.

[Willihammer]

I'm glad someone brought up Fullmer. I'm just starting to get up to speed and in digging around about Buehler, I noticed that he's not even the best pitcher on the Commodores. Fulmer might be a converted reliever but by any statistical measure he is the more productive starter this year. He even throws 1 more IP per start than Buehler (almost).

[Willihammer]

It is an unorthodox delivery though. I think the near-absence of a rock makes it look more rushed than it is (skip to 2:25 for slo-mo)

 

[gunnarthor]

Fulmer comes with some big questions though.  Klaw has mentioned both his mechanics and his height.  Obviously, we've all heard the height thing with Berrios but Berrios was the 30th pick, not the 6th.  I don't want the Twins to draft a reliever at #6.  So I'd just as soon they go the other way - upside with the HS kid Nikorak or even a "safe" college arm like Harris.  

[Willihammer]

 

Fulmer comes with some big questions though.  Klaw has mentioned both his mechanics and his height.  Obviously, we've all heard the height thing with Berrios but Berrios was the 30th pick, not the 6th.  I don't want the Twins to draft a reliever at #6.  So I'd just as soon they go the other way - upside with the HS kid Nikorak or even a "safe" college arm like Harris.  

As Sickels said in the link above, if he were 6'3" he'd be in contention for 1-1. McDaniels likes him too. In his words

 

"I’m the high guy on Fulmer, but I think teams are coming around on him. There’s some effort to the delivery, but he’s never been hurt, goes deep in games, has succeeded hugely as a starter and reliever at the highest amateur levels, is hyper-aggressive and strong-bodied. . .. If I’m betting on someone in this draft class to succeed more than the industry consensus, I’m rolling with the dude that’s never failed before, that’s never been hurt before, that has has plus stuff and that has performed everywhere, delivery and height be damned."

[markos]

Callis and Mayo projected the first 10 picks: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/121103208/jim-callis-jonathan-mayo-project-top-10-picks-in-2015-draft

 

6. Twins
Callis: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) HS. Minnesota isn't afraid to take high school arms early -- see Kohl Stewart at No. 4 in 2013 -- and Nikorak has the stuff, athleticism and pitchability to become the best pitcher in this Draft class.
Mayo: Alex Bregman, SS, Louisiana State. The Twins could have interest in Rodgers or Cameron, should they still be here. Save that, Bregman is the best position player available, one who has performed well at a top-notch program and could move fairly quickly.

 

Interesting note: Mayo is guessing Aiken goes #7 to the Red Sox.