New draft thread

[gunnarthor]

Ian Happ?

Could be Daz Cameron.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think I like Happ, especially if Aiken is going to fall. Best college bat and can play some OF, he could be our Kris Bryant (though not quite that high of a ceiling).

[markos]

Inbox question about the draft that was answered by Jim Callis: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/118681250/jim-callis-pipeline-inbox-is-there-a-consensus-top-three-in-the-2015-mlb-draft

 

He still considers Brendan Rodgers the #1 prospect.

Tate and Swanson round out top-3.

Funkhouser, Bregman and (interestingly) Kyle Tucker are considered top-10 locks. 

[maxisagod]

I think I dislike the 1st round talent in this draft more than any in the last 7 years. That could change though. 

[gunnarthor]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/louisvilles-kyle-funkhouser-states-case-for-top-five-selection/

 

Nice article.  Looks like Funkhouser probably won't get to #6 but at least we're seeing some good performances.  The article also mentions Zack Burdi, Nick's brother.  

 

From the few things out there it looks like the emerging top of the draft is Rogers, Tate, Funkhouser, Swanson.

[Hrbowski]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-draft-rankings-april-edition/

 

I like Mike Nikorak.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Gunnarthor--in your first of two posts above, you mention that Rodgers is at the top, and Funkhouser and Kirby are top 5. And then that two of Happ, Cameron, Swanson and Buehler would round out top 5. Then later in a second post you cite Rodgers, Tate, Swanson and Funkhouser as the emerging top of the draft.

 

Kirby and Tate are the two names on those lists that don't overlap, and also Happ is on neither.

 

I've personally been holding out hope that Dillon Tate is around at #6. Although Aiken at #6 seems like a worthwhile shot....big chance at #1 overall upside. I suppose Happ as the top college bat is intriguing as well.

 

Seems like the Twins should have an interesting choice at a minimum.

[gunnarthor]

 

Gunnarthor--in your first of two posts above, you mention that Rodgers is at the top, and Funkhouser and Kirby are top 5. And then that two of Happ, Cameron, Swanson and Buehler would round out top 5. Then later in a second post you cite Rodgers, Tate, Swanson and Funkhouser as the emerging top of the draft.

Kirby and Tate are the two names on those lists that don't overlap, and also Happ is on neither.

I've personally been holding out hope that Dillon Tate is around at #6. Although Aiken at #6 seems like a worthwhile shot....big chance at #1 overall upside. I suppose Happ as the top college bat is intriguing as well.

Seems like the Twins should have an interesting choice at a minimum.

Yeah, I'm not nearly the draft expert like Jeremy is but I was trying to sort through what McDaniel, Callis and Klaw were putting out there.  Obviously, a lot will change over the next 10 weeks but it does look like the Twins will have some choices, moreso than the last few years. In 2012, they were hoping Buxton would fall, in 2013, they would take Stewart unless someone fell, in 2014 they were locked in on Gordon.  But this year it seems like there will be a top teir of maybe two or three guys (Tate, Rogers maybe one or two others) and then 6 or 7 guys in the next teir and the Twins can pick between them.

 

At least that's how it looks to me from a million miles away. 

[DocBauer]

Anyone have specifics on Aiken and how injury might not be "normal"?

 

The entire baseball draft is a huge crapshoot. Biggest in sport to be sure. But I have to say, not having that second round pick seems to put a bigger Spotlight on our #1. So I really hate to gamble. Still, a high ceiling LHSP, a previous first pick in the draft, being available to us at 6? Soooo very tempting.

[70charger]

My understanding of last years Aiken fiasco wasn't that he was injured, it was that the Astros found out his UCL was smaller/weaker than normal and balked at paying him top pick money. Then when he actually tore his UCL there was some sense of vindication. I think the worry would be that if his UCL is naturally weaker than it should be, he may never come back from his surgery.

[nicksaviking]

My understanding of last years Aiken fiasco wasn't that he was injured, it was that the Astros found out his UCL was smaller/weaker than normal and balked at paying him top pick money. Then when he actually tore his UCL there was some sense of vindication. I think the worry would be that if his UCL is naturally weaker than it should be, he may never come back from his surgery.

I'm not a surgeon except when I felt guilty about tearing the wings off a fly when I was a kid and glued them back on, but I kind of assumed if TJ surgery was performed on Aiken, they could make his "new" UCL the desired length and thickness desired, unless there was other structural issues with the elbow previously un-discussed.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought Tommy John replaced the UCL with a tendon from another part of the body. If that's the case, why would it matter? I know there are a couple of docs on this site.. wouldn't mind a bit more detailed explanation from those that understand this process.

[ashbury]

 

I'm not a surgeon except when I felt guilty about tearing the wings off a fly when I was a kid and glued them back on

I like that. A psychopathic neurotic.

[70charger]

 

I thought Tommy John replaced the UCL with a tendon from another part of the body. If that's the case, why would it matter? I know there are a couple of docs on this site.. wouldn't mind a bit more detailed explanation from those that understand this process.

 

I have no idea how it works either, just saying what I know. I'll second the call to have somebody with some expertise come in and school me.

[Hrbowski]

If you were to choose between Mike Nikorak, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, or Kevin Newman who would you choose?

[bird]

 

I thought Tommy John replaced the UCL with a tendon from another part of the body. If that's the case, why would it matter? I know there are a couple of docs on this site.. wouldn't mind a bit more detailed explanation from those that understand this process.

 

Or at least from someone who stayed at a Holiday Inn.

[gunnarthor]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/20/8444217/early-thoughts-on-the-2015-mlb-draft

 

Sickels post on the draft.  Thinks it's a mediocre one.  I read another prospect guy (Klaw?) say it's the worst draft since 2000.  Yay.  

 

Anyhow, he mentions a bit of the concern toward Aiken's elbow surgery.  Some fear it could be career killing.  Twins probably don't take that kind of risk at #6 but they'll see the medicals before the draft.

 

Swanson, Bergman and Happ could be some of the first college bats taken and all are middle infielders.  Klaw said Happ could be a good power/avg guy at second base and Sickels thinks Bergman slips to second base but Swanson will stay at short.  

 

Obviously, we still have some time before the draft comes and some things could change but it doesn't look like a Buxton or Bryant will be in this draft.  Of course, the 2000 draft saw Chase Utley fall to the middle of the first round so there will be talent in this draft.  But it might not be obvious at first glance.

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-mlb-draft-rankings-april-edition/

[Mike Sixel]

Lots of SS in the list from Kiley....

[Mike Sixel]

Given Kiley's list.....

 

I'd say Happ, Funkhouser, Tucker, or whatever pitcher falls.....but what do I know?

[jimmer]

 

Given Kiley's list.....

 

I'd say Happ, Funkhouser, Tucker, or whatever pitcher falls.....but what do I know?

Been saying I want Funk for months now.  Still do.

[gunnarthor]

I think Klaw mentioned that Cameron was a top 10 guy.  If the Twins were going to go with HS bat he or Tucker would fit the bill.  

 

The problem with this draft is that a number of the RH pitchers seem too short - the Berrios problem - and the MIers seem more likely to be second basemen than shortstops.  I was hoping Kyle Cody would pitch himself into a top 10 guy but it doesn't look like he will.  If it was only TJ surgery, I'd be pushing for Matuella but he has a bunch of injuries already.  I like everything I've read about Nikorak, the HS pitcher from PA.  Big time athlete who hits 97.  Could be a Kohl Stewart type.  

[James]

 

I thought Tommy John replaced the UCL with a tendon from another part of the body. If that's the case, why would it matter? I know there are a couple of docs on this site.. wouldn't mind a bit more detailed explanation from those that understand this process.

I can't say what a doctor will choose for TJ.  I'm also not a doctor, so I can't say for certain.  

 

That disclaimer aside, I have a feeling that it would be similar to other ligament replacement surgeries.  Last Fall, my roommate tore his ACL.  When he had his ligament replacement surgery, he was given the option of taking a ligament from one of two locations close to the ACL, or using a cadaver ligament.  It seems like there were pros and cons for each option, but generally replacing the ACL with one of your own ligaments tended to have better recovery results.  

 

Once again, I don't know if TJ has similar options, but I would think that they may be very similar.  

 

As far as drafting goes, it's a tough call.  I could see a team drafting a TJ guy later in first round, but I don't know that I'd want to take that risk at #6, especially when they don't have a second round pick.

[Hrbowski]

I think that Alex Bregman can stay at short:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/four-plays-from-one-game-by-draft-prospect-alex-bregman/

[zenser]

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/4/20/8444217/early-thoughts-on-the-2015-mlb-draft

 

Sickels post on the draft.  Thinks it's a mediocre one.  I read another prospect guy (Klaw?) say it's the worst draft since 2000.  Yay.  

 

Anyhow, he mentions a bit of the concern toward Aiken's elbow surgery.  Some fear it could be career killing.  Twins probably don't take that kind of risk at #6 but they'll see the medicals before the draft.

 

Swanson, Bergman and Happ could be some of the first college bats taken and all are middle infielders.  Klaw said Happ could be a good power/avg guy at second base and Sickels thinks Bergman slips to second base but Swanson will stay at short.  

 

Obviously, we still have some time before the draft comes and some things could change but it doesn't look like a Buxton or Bryant will be in this draft.  Of course, the 2000 draft saw Chase Utley fall to the middle of the first round so there will be talent in this draft.  But it might not be obvious at first glance.

 

Maybe I am on the opposite thinking of everyone here but if this draft is that weak, I would take the injury risk.  I guess my thinking would be if you aren't getting an impact player because that impact player just doesn't exist, I would gamble to try and get one.  If it was a loaded draft, I wouldn't do it but if you were ever to gamble and take a shot, this would be the time to do it.

[Hrbowski]

 

Maybe I am on the opposite thinking of everyone here but if this draft is that weak, I would take the injury risk.  I guess my thinking would be if you aren't getting an impact player because that impact player just doesn't exist, I would gamble to try and get one.  If it was a loaded draft, I wouldn't do it but if you were ever to gamble and take a shot, this would be the time to do it.

I don't think it is that weak, Kyle Tucker is being compared to Ted Williams, and he was ranked seventh on Kiley's list.

[formerly33]

 

I don't think it is that weak, Kyle Tucker is being compared to Ted Williams, and he was ranked seventh on Kiley's list.

True, but how often is it that comparisons to greats turn out to be busts? Too often for my tastes, I'm afraid. Not that I'm saying Tucker will be a bust. I just don't think we're going to have 7 players from the 2015 draft who turn out to be as good as/better than Ted Williams.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I will go on record as agreeing that it is unlikely there will be seven players as good or better as Ted Williams in the 2015 draft.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If you were to choose between Mike Nikorak, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, or Kevin Newman who would you choose?

 

Obviously I haven't scouted them in person, so that would probably be more important, all else being equal, but based on my limited sense, probably Happ. I don't see Bregman or Newman having the same upside. Maybe Nikorak, but I don't know enough about him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There is so much to sort through. I hope to have my initial draft board up sometime this week. It's a crazy draft. In addition to the injuries, the southeast has been bombarded by rain, so the looks at some of the top guys have been few and far between. 

 

One nugget for you: The Twins were able to get their whole contingent down to see Daz Cameron. I don't get the sense that they're on him at six, but they think the Astros are heavy on him at 5. He's a Boras guy too.