Article: Embracing Substance Over Style

[Dantes929]

 

How many prospects have we waited for in the last decade.  Prospects are prospects and that is all they should be labeled as in my opinion.  We finally get a guy up last year (Santana) that can really play and produce and now we talk about trading him so we can wait for another prospect.  No way.  If it works, you better stick with it until these "prospects" become players and push these professionals out.  We've got a bird in the hand and about nine in the bush, take what we've got in the hand.

Santana by far surpassed what he did in the minors.    That is pretty rare.   The last one to do that was Danny Valencia and I suggested trading him also if the value was commensurate to the season he had.   Now I like Santana and would like to keep him but if any team  thought last year's numbers were repeatable and offered that kind of value I would definitely listen.    If not and Santana were able to put up numbers more like his minor league career I would be just fine with that.

[Jham]

 

Yup, I agree with Nick. The reason that the Twins are going to start Santana at SS this year, but didn't last year has little to do with how solid we are at CF (John's right, there isn't much difference to last year). It has to do with who are manager is/was, and whether that manager was interested in winning as many games in the short run versus building for the long run.  That being said, while we need to figure out if Santana can be a SS, we also need to find at bats for Escobar because we need to find out if last year was a fluke. With Polanco, Escobar, and Santana all capable of potentially playing a couple of positions and hitting well in the next few years, we need to figure out who is going to be our starting SS, who is going to be a solid utility player, and who is (realistically) going to be traded. Sorry, but that may require tinkering, and not always having the bat in the lineup on a given day that is likely to do the most damage that day. But this is the time to figure that out.

 

Can't we figure it out once we're 12 games back?  Which has been closer to May than September of late...  Seems like that would give plenty of time to experiment, check guys out, and make decisions for the future.  Unless of course the players we're fielding screw up and win too many games.

 

[DocBauer]

The problem is not Escobar. The problem, and it's a good one, is Santana. I like Escobar a lot. I was part of the "Free Escobar" campaign. I still like him a lot. And if this was just about any time in the last 10 years, the Twins would...and us...would be ever so grateful for him and he'd be written in ink, carved in stone for the starting SS spot. But it's not the past, it's now. Santana has as much pop if not more. Santana has more range, a stronger arm (so it seems), and more overall athleticism. Santana has more speed. Santana appears to have as good or better bat and as good or better discipline. So, no offense to Escobar, but he should start at SS over Santana why? Again, not a knock on Escobar, just a reality on Santana.

[DocBauer]

PS...I can understand the sentiment to move Santana back to CF. And I still believe he may see some time out there. But I have a really hard time taking a really talented SS, putting him back in to CF again, for what will still be a temporary move, and then...then do what with him a year for now? NOW try to make him your full time SS? Now put him in LF or RF where Arcia will be and probably Rosario?

[ashbury]

 

He may not be as stunningly beautiful as my lovely wife, but he’s dependable.

Well played, sir.

I dunno. I'm not sure I'd want to be married to the woman who read this about herself and decided to take that last part as an unfavorable comparison.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've asked this a couple of times on twitter, and now I'd invite Twins Daily readers to do some research, if you want...

 

Has any 25-year-old shortstop ever posted a .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 35 doubles and 6 homers and played average or slightly better than average shortstop defense one year and not been handed the starting shortstop job by his team the following season?

 

I feel bad for Escobar. Someone in the Twins clubhouse one day I was in there called it "The Power of the Label." Escobar has always been seen by people in the industry as a utility guy, and maybe that's what he is, but even after a strong season last year in nearly every day play, The Label still wins. 

To be fair, "The Label" is usually based on a guy's long-term track record, so it's not all bad.

 

The Twins have tried to buck "The Label" for various players over the years without a lot of sustained success: Nick Punto as starting 3B/SS, Brian Duensing as starter, Scott Diamond as staff leader, etc.  Diamond posted a 116 ERA+ (and even a better than average 96 FIP-) in 2012, but the Twins still would have been better off making him battle for a rotation spot in 2013.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I've asked this a couple of times on twitter, and now I'd invite Twins Daily readers to do some research, if you want...

 

Has any 25-year-old shortstop ever posted a .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 35 doubles and 6 homers and played average or slightly better than average shortstop defense one year and not been handed the starting shortstop job by his team the following season?

Here's a list of shortstops, ages 24-26, wRC+ 92-112 (Escobar was 102 last year), 400+ PA seasons:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=1990&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=24%2c26&filter=25377&players=0&sort=18%2ca

 

A few utility guys pop up (I am not sure what the SS qualifier means), but that's not necessarily bad for Escobar comps:

 

- Sean Rodriguez basically stayed in his utility role for the 2012 Rays

- Emilio Bonifacio shifted to CF/utility for the 2012 Marlins (they signed Jose Reyes)

- Damian Jackson started at 2B for the 2001 Padres, then went back to utility

- Ramon Vasquez was replaced at SS before the end of his follow-up season for the 2003 Pades

 

A couple more stretch your defensive requirement:

- Kurt Abbott was replaced at SS and shifted to utility not far into his follow-up season for the 1996 Marlins

- Brendan Harris was traded, started at 2B for the 2008 Twins, but then fairly quickly found himself in a utility role

 

A few more guys continued starting at SS but probably shouldn't have (2004 Angel Berroa!).

 

The best team in this group (2012 Rays) more or less kept their young utility guy in his utility role.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop?  I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins.  (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)

[jimmer]

 

Is Danny Santana equally subject to "The Label" of him as a shortstop?  I understand what they're doing with him and Escobar right now, but it's hard not to see Santana in CF and Escobar at SS as the optimal present-day (and arguably long-term) use of resources for the Twins.  (Although Escobar might be a bigger factor at 3B this year than most folks realize.)

I think long term Buxton may have something to say about who mans CF in the long term:-)

Edited March 25, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think long term Buxton may have something to say about who mans CF in the long term:-)

Hopefully, but he's realistically a year-plus away.  Santana CF, Escobar SS for this season might still provide more long-term benefit to the Twins than Santana SS, Escobar utility, and sorting through various flotsam and jetsam in CF for a year.  The longer they both show they can handle starting roles, the better.

[TheLeviathan]

A look at Trevor Plouffe's injury profile gives me plenty of reasons to believe Escobar will get his playing time.

[Kwak]

Let's take a step back to last Spring--Santana was professed to be "not ready" and sent to the minors.  Escobar was one of the guys from the Liriano trade--"or how the Twins SS problem was fixed". Back to 2006, Bartlett was deemed to be "not ready" (didn't "take charge" or something like that)--so the Twins started a mediocrity (a bit generous, but I'll be nice here) rather than promote Bartlett (who wasn't any Spring chicken). Enough was enough and the rookie was promoted in 2006 (only to be...it's too painful to continue). Returning to 2014, CF was a similar mess to '06's SS problem, so...promote somebody who has speed and a strong arm. Enter Santana. "Not Ready" to play SS, but somehow can be trusted in CF.

 

Santana was a SS not a CF--but oh my did he hit way above expectations. He is still a SS and not a CF.

The question to be answered: will the Twins develop the guy they had projected to be a starting SS or accept mediocrity to try to win a few more games this season (since I expect that CF will continue to be a bleeding ulcer)?

 

As far as a trading one of them? I don't think the Twins were offered much (if anything) for either Santana or Escobar--else a trade would have happened by now.