Article: Beating Vegas: The Devil Rays

[John Bonnes]

They've been the sabrmetric darling for years, and Vegas finally bought in last year - just in time for things to fall apart. Vegas noticed and further noticed the offseason in which the Rays looked like they were embracing a rebuilding philosophy. So how about this year?Year In Review

Year after year, as free agent after free agent left the Rays, we would see stories about how the Rays successful run was over and a betting line that matched it. And year after year, that meant easy money for anyone betting the "over." Finally, last year, that was not such an easy call when a value of 88.5 was established, a higher number than even the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox had to beat.

 

Sure enough, it all went to hell. Their pitching mostly held up, finishing with a 3.56 ERA. But the Rays finally ran out of patches for their lineup, scoring 88 runs fewer than the year before and sinking to last in the American League in runs scored. By midseason, they had traded away their ace, David Price. They finished with just 77 wins, their lowest total since 2007, when Rays were still preceded by "Devil."

 

And then things got worse.

 

The changes this offseason were probably more symbolic than impactful; they may not cost the Rays many wins this year, but the message is clear: their window of opportunity slammed shut. Both their GM, Andrew Friedman, and their manager, Joe Maddon, bailed on them for more promising (and - surprise - cash-rich) teams.

 

(The lesson? It turns out that in the long run in MLB being richer is better than being smarter. And if you doubt it, just watch where the smart guys end up going.)

 

There are also plenty of changes on the field. They turned over their starting shortstop, second baseman, catcher and two outfielders and replaced them with...well, mostly with patches and prospects for the next rebuild, which they hope to start sooner rather than later.

 

Vegas Says

"I won't make that mistake again. They're done. But they still have a pretty good pitching staff." - 78.5 wins.

 

Beating Vegas

On the one hand, this franchise has been underestimated for most of the last eight years by the betting public, so I can't blame anyone for betting the over. But two things lead me to the "under", one spiritual and one practical.

 

Spiritually, it's hard to rally when hope has left the building. Sure, an organization can embrace a "last stand" mentality, but that usually requires a cause a little more noble than a third-place finish. If the Rays don't thrive immediately, there is going to be enormous pressure to continue to look at the future. The team already consists of more than their share of "stop gap" players, and that's the sort that are easily traded away for some future chits. And sooner or later, they're going to get around to wondering just what kind of return Evan Longoria and his technicolor contract can fetch.

 

And practically, this looks like the worst team in the AL East. Personally, I don't think they're going to be all alone in that regard; one of the other four will likely unexpectedly flame out. But the worst team in a division can have quite a bit of room to sink below their Vegas total. So I'm not sure I would bet on it, but put me down for the "under".

 

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[jimmer]

Good article.  Just one question.  Who are the Devil Rays?  :-)

[biggentleben]

 

Good article.  Just one question.  Who are the Devil Rays?  :-)

 

Even asking such a question at a press conference is a fine.