Article: Alex Meyer's Wild Ride

[Nick Nelson]

There were a number of players I was excited to see in action down here in Ft. Myers, but among the highest on that list was Alex Meyer. I've only had the chance to see brief clips of him throwing before, so I was interested to see how he'd look in person.

 

I finally had that opportunity in Port Charlotte on Thursday. In a two-inning relief stint against the Rays, Meyer showed why he's such an exciting and potentially game-changing prospect, but also why the Twins may have some reservations about handing him a rotation spot.After a so-so start from Ricky Nolasco and a solid relief appearance from Ryan Pressly, Meyer came on to start the sixth inning. He's an unmistakable figure on the mound, standing a gangly 6'9" with legs that look longer than my entire body.

 

He likely wasn't going full bore in this mid-March outing, but Meyer still worked at 93-94 MPH with the fastball, occasionally touching 95. He also mixed in some impressive knuckle-curves and threw a few decent changeups.

 

The first thing that struck me about him was his strange arm slot, which I've noticed on tape but seemed much more distinct from the third row on the third-base line.

 

Meyer slings the ball with a three-quarters delivery that seems to put an awful lot of strain on his elbow and shoulder, so it's unsurprising he's dealt with arm problems in each of the past two seasons. He clearly has trouble repeating his mechanics consistently, and that has been a frequently cited issue for the righty.

 

He was wild, wild, wild in this game. In his first inning of work, he issued three walks, and some of his pitches were just nowhere near the zone. It was his fastball that he had most trouble commanding; he actually threw the offspeed in the zone for the most part. But that potent heater has a tendency to sail on him.

 

He came back out to pitch the seventh, and although he issued a fourth walk, he was much more efficient, requiring only 10 pitches to get through the frame. It helped that Josmil Pinto gunned down Taylor Motter (who had drawn the walk) stealing second to end the inning.

 

Wildness aside, Meyer was fun to watch. When he throws the ball in the zone (and sometimes when he doesn't) he has hitters flailing. He gave up only one hit -- a weakly hit bloop -- and no one made particularly hard contact with anything he delivered.

 

He recorded three strikeouts in his two innings of work, two of them on filthy breaking balls. If he can harness those mechanics and reign in that fastball, he'll be a force. If, if, if…

 

I can say with some confidence that Meyer is not going to make the big-league club out of spring training, and I know that might be frustrating for some, since he's a 25-year-old top prospect.

 

But people need to stop focusing so much on his age. He's a project, and a rather unique one at that. How many MLB pitchers stand 6'9" or taller? Not many now, or even in the history of the game. He's been able to achieve excellent results in the minors but his erratic performances simply won't fly in the majors, where hitters are more selective and where there's a stronger expectation for starting pitchers to last deep into games.

 

Fortunately, with Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey both pitching well right now, not to mention the presence of Trevor May, the Twins have the luxury of taking it slow with Meyer. He is working hard on fixing his problems and the Twins do believe he's coming along. The good news is that once he hopefully turns the corner, the team will control him for the entirety of his physical prime, into his 30s.

 

Whether as a starter or reliever, I fully believe he'll be a valuable weapon for this club. We might just have to wait a little while longer.

 

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[nater79a]

Makes a person wonder if this wildness can ever be tamed.  He's been working on it for a long time now. Maybe Neil Allen and Marty Mason can work some magic.

[curt1965]

I agree 100%, Nick! I watched the game on MSN and was very disappointed in Meyer's performance. The walks were one thing; the fact that he was consistently missing by so much was more distressing.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Good reporting Nick. Even looking at photos, Meyer looks like he's still a work in progress. But here again, Meyer is a top prospect. I also don't feel Terry Ryan can use "control problems" as a reason to leave Meyer in the minors. Samuel Deduno, right? It was a point of pride that nobody knew where a Deduno pitch was going to fly off to. Wildness was Deduno's calling card. I would think Ryan would want Meyer up ASAP regardless. If he struggles we'll all see it and Ryan can just send him back down with everybody's blessing. It will be fun (I think) to watch how this develops, and to see Meyer finally make his debut.

[Parker Hageman]

The first thing that struck me about him was his strange arm slot, which I've noticed on tape but seemed much more distinct from the third row on the third-base line. 

 

Meyer slings the ball with a three-quarters delivery that seems to put an awful lot of strain on his elbow and shoulder, so it's unsurprising he's dealt with arm problems in each of the past two seasons. He clearly has trouble repeating his mechanics consistently, and that has been a frequently cited issue for the righty. 

 

The Twins noted that last year Meyer's arm slot began to drop prior to having to be shut down. This is actually an improvement over what that was:

 

 

 

Here's another capture of his arm slot from early 2014:

 

 

One interesting difference from Meyer last year to Meyer in camp is that he is finishing differently. Last year, he was a pitcher who swung everything around to the glove side and fell off towards the first base line. In camp he seems to be trying to finish north-south/in line with the plate. Seems to be fighting the finish. I'll try to whip up some GIFs on that at some point. 

 

Overall, consistency always will be an issue for him. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Have you guys heard the term, effectively wild? If Sam Deduno can start in the big leagues, so can Alex Meyer. Control issues be damned. #FreeAlex

[highlander]

I still think he has a shot at the big club when they break camp, out of the bullpen. It's not like we have a whole lot of answers after Perk.

[Paul Pleiss]

 

I still think he has a shot at the big club when they break camp, out of the bullpen. It's not like we have a whole lot of answers after Perk.

Molitor was quoted a couple weeks ago saying that there was a very small chance that Meyer gets pushed to the pen. I think Berardino had the story.

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/03/03/twinsights-paul-molitor-downplays-relief-option-mike-pelfrey-alex-meyer/

 

"“Alex is a very routine guy as far as rotation and what his program has been,” Molitor said. “And for a young kid, you work him in as a starter in camp and all of a sudden you go, ‘OK, let’s give him a couple innings out of the ‘pen here and then throw him into a major league game.’ It’s hard to see how that could happen in the short term. It might be something that could work its way.”

 

Molitor said pitching coach Neil Allen and general manager Terry Ryan would have a say in final roster construction as well, but at this point Pelfrey and Meyer will be brought along solely as starting candidates."

 

And then again from earler this week

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/03/14/twinsights-alex-meyer-not-a-bullpen-candidate-at-this-point/

 

"“I would say the odds on that are pretty long — pretty long,” Molitor  said. “We want to build him up to start, and he’s a little bit behind. But I would think right now the odds of that happening in the short term are fairly slim.”

 

All 68 of Meyer’s professional appearances in the regular season have come as a starter. He hasn’t worked out of the bullpen since early in his college career at the University of Kentucky.

 

“It’s a combination of getting a little behind early,” Molitor said, “and the majority of our people think that he should be starting: too many innings, the experience. Getting him stretched out to fill a starting spot one way or another is probably the right thing right now.”"

Edited March 20, 2015 by Paul Pleiss

[highlander]

Thanx for the update. That would definitely be a different approach for St. Paul Molitor than in the past. See Santana, Johan.

[Seth Stohs]

 

But people need to stop focusing so much on his age. He's a project, and a rather unique one at that.

 

This sentence, and the whole paragraph are such important points. I've wanted to say that but NIck is such a good writer, he finds the way to say it well.

 

The comps to Sam Deduno... Sure, Deduno made starts, but he was out of options and they needed to see what they had in him - and then decided to DFA him.

 

I don't know about others, but I think that Meyer has a lot more potential than Deduno, so that comparison should stop. Meyer - assuming he is sent down - is in his first option year. I know people worry about age a ton. I prefer to worry about potential and reaching it and doing what is best for the individual. 

 

Meyer is close. We'll see him this year, but this concern about his age when he is so unique just needs to stop.

[Halsey Hall]

One thing I found interesting yesterday was they were working Plouffe at 1st base.  TK had he and Mauer on the half field for a long time, and then TK had Plouffe on the big field wihile bp was going on. 

[tobi0040]

Great article.  I have championed Meyer for a long time, but it is really, really hard to watch yesterdays outing and then argue he should make this team out of spring training.  He was consistently missing the glove by a foot or more with the fastball.  However, the few times he got ahead of the hitter, it was like he was pitching to a 5th grader when he would drop the slider in there, but he needs much better fastball command.  Four BB's, all four pitch walks in two innings....

 

Batter 1. Hit on first pitch
Batter 2. Four pitch walk
Batter 3. Four pitch walk
Batter 4. Sac on first pitch (run scored)
Batter 5. Four pitch walk
Batter 6. K on three pitches (all swinging)

Batter 7. K on three pitches (all swinging)

 

Second inning

 

Batter 1.  K on three pitches

Batter 2. Grounder to 2B on first pitch

Batter 3. Four pitch walk

Batter 4. Guy thrown out at 2B on steal attempt....

 

My other random thoughts....Nolasco's curve looke really good but it seemed like his fastball was hit pretty hard.  Obviously the HR, but a couple other hard hit balls right at people.

 

And Arcia on that ball off his glove.  That was brutal. Really Delmon-esque.  No hustle, misplaying a ball that should have been caught.  Not quite routine, but not a dififcult play either.  For those out there who don't buy the Twins negative 50 runs due to OF defense should watch that.  If what should be an out is a 2B on a play you are not even requiring average speed or an average angle on....

 

[John Bonnes]

Nick, I couldn't agree more about worrying about his age. My personal sense, not backed by stats, is that I worry about the age of hitters, not pitchers.

 

 

But I wonder how valid that is. It would be interesting to see how the age of pitchers when they are introduced to the majors correlates with their future. I have't because I think that would include a lot of "noise" or be a prime candidate for the "correlation vs causation" argument; generally a good pitcher is a good pitcher early, so they tend to make it to the majors earlier.

 

 

It would also be interesting to take a look at tall pitchers and see if they tend to develop later. It sure seems like it took Randy Johnson a long time to move from "curiosity" to "ace" but I wasn't paying as much attention to age at that point.

 

 

Anyway, I guess my point remains: age is just a number for pitchers and shouldn't factor into the decision to rush a pitcher. I'm glad to hear from Seth that this is only his first option year. We might be impatient, but we have a lot of time to iron this stuff out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Great article, Nick. We all want Meyer in the rotation but after outings like yesterday, it's apparent that work still needs to be done. If a guy is missing the glove by over half a foot several times in two innings, he's going to have a short, brutal experience in a MLB rotation.

 

That's not "effectively wild". That's just "wild". Guys will swing at some of his pitches but they're also going to sit on a bunch of pitches, leaving Meyer with a ton of 4-5 inning starts even when he's effective.

[HitInAPinch]

From the Strib:  “You can tell he starts getting sped up, and mechanically … he flies open a little bit and loses that release point,” the Twins manager said.  This, and the "arm slot" discussion here:  does it ring a bell?  Meyer is the righthanded version of Randy Johnson. 

[Dantes929]

 

Great article, Nick. We all want Meyer in the rotation but after outings like yesterday, it's apparent that work still needs to be done. If a guy is missing the glove by over half a foot several times in two innings, he's going to have a short, brutal experience in a MLB rotation.

 

That's not "effectively wild". That's just "wild". Guys will swing at some of his pitches but they're also going to sit on a bunch of pitches, leaving Meyer with a ton of 4-5 inning starts even when he's effective.

I agree with the wild part.   In his stint with the Twins last year May seemed to run into that on waste pitches.   When ahead in the count he would throw a couple that didn't  even tempt the hitter.   Effectively wild is throwing one into the stands once a game to make the batter uncomfortable and be around the plate the rest of the time.   Four 4 pitch walks in two innings is not effectively wild.    I don't know why anyone would ever think that would play better in a late inning relief role. 

 

The thing is though, this doesn't prove anything other than that Meyer is capable of being really horrific  in a spring training game which I basically already assumed.   Big deal.   In the minors he would run off a few really dominant performances and then have a clunker.    I can live with that if he does the same thing in the majors.     I want May to get first shot but am not going to let one game convince me of anything..     In spring you have to work on stuff.  I would hope that in the season if he was that bad with the fastball he would go mainly with secondary stuff which apparently is pretty good.

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

Great article.  I have championed Meyer for a long time, but it is really, really hard to watch yesterdays outing and then argue he should make this team out of spring training.  He was consistently missing the glove by a foot or more with the fastball.  However, the few times he got ahead of the hitter, it was like he was pitching to a 5th grader when he would drop the slider in there, but he needs much better fastball command.  Four BB's, all four pitch walks in two innings....

 

Batter 1. Hit on first pitch
Batter 2. Four pitch walk
Batter 3. Four pitch walk
Batter 4. Sac on first pitch (run scored)
Batter 5. Four pitch walk
Batter 6. K on three pitches (all swinging)

Batter 7. K on three pitches (all swinging)

 

Second inning

 

Batter 1.  K on three pitches

Batter 2. Grounder to 2B on first pitch

Batter 3. Four pitch walk

Batter 4. Guy thrown out at 2B on steal attempt....

 

My other random thoughts....Nolasco's curve looke really good but it seemed like his fastball was hit pretty hard.  Obviously the HR, but a couple other hard hit balls right at people.

 

And Arcia on that ball off his glove.  That was brutal. Really Delmon-esque.  No hustle, misplaying a ball that should have been caught.  Not quite routine, but not a dififcult play either.  For those out there who don't buy the Twins negative 50 runs due to OF defense should watch that.  If what should be an out is a 2B on a play you are not even requiring average speed or an average angle on....

Thanks for all the facts.   Nolasco getting beat on his fastball and effective with the curve is how I see him.  I still think May has better stuff.

 I've always valued outfield defense but never saw it quantified like that.    50 runs is 5 games and possibly more. 

[mikelink45]

I remember watching Sandy Koufax when he was the wild, no control pitcher with the Dodgers - they let him work out his issues and he became such a legend that no one remembers his beginning.  Next HOFer Randy Johnson - it took him time, but it also took time on a major league mound to hone his skills.  We are not a championship team - build for the future where the building can be most effective. 

[jimmer]

Should Meyer start preparing his HOF speech now?  Where are all the comparisons to the pitchers that were wild that crashed, burned and were never heard from again? :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Should Meyer start preparing his HOF speech now?  Where are all the comparisons to the pitchers that were wild that crashed, burned and were never heard from again? :-)

Yeah, this.

 

Times 1,000.

[ericchri]

 

Meyer slings the ball with a three-quarters delivery that seems to put an awful lot of strain on his elbow and shoulder, so it's unsurprising he's dealt with arm problems in each of the past two seasons.

I don't want to go too crazy on this because I have no medical background at all, but I did want to make a comment on this. I've played lots of rec softball in my life, often at 3rd or SS, and the one thing that I always noted about hard throws across the diamond is that if I got all the way over the top of the throw it would light up my shoulder with pain (I assume I have some kind of injury in there but I'm too lazy to bother fixing it as it's not a problem except when throwing, and I've reached an age where my softball days are probably done), but if I can drop down to a 3/4 slot it doesn't do much to my shoulder at all. Parker's probably laughing at my ignorance at this point, but I'm not sure I understand why a 3/4 slot puts more strain on your arm as that's completely opposite to my experience with throwing. I've always assumed the 3/4 slot makes the "downward plane" and potential movement, and maybe control, on pitches more problematic, but I never thought it was more likely to cause injuries.

Edited March 20, 2015 by ericchri

[jokin]

 

It would also be interesting to take a look at tall pitchers and see if they tend to develop later. It sure seems like it took Randy Johnson a long time to move from "curiosity" to "ace" but I wasn't paying as much attention to age at that point.

 

 

Once again, folks are freaking out when Johnson's name is mentioned with respect to Meyer.  Without in any way implying or endorsing the notion that Meyer is an Ace-in-Waiting of the Randy Johnson variety, Nick and Seth hit it right on the head, like Johnson, Meyer is the same kind of special, unusual case.

 

In point of fact, Johnson inauspiciously began his MLB career at the same age that Meyer is now, and his initial wild and erratic performance with the Expos convinced them to ship him off to the Mariners in late May of his inaugural full season of ball.  What followed was 3.5 more years of a wild roller coaster ride.  And when I say "wild", Johnson led the League in Base on Balls for the next three consecutive years and very, very gradually, became more consistently effective.

 

Having seen both pitch around the same age, I think there's every reason to think that Meyer's early MLB career could follow the same arc, frequent train wrecks interspersed with dominant brilliance, often in the same game, or even from inning to inning.  As I've pointed out previously, the good news is that Meyer has demonstrated far more control in his minor league career than Johnson did.  Again, not to suggest that Meyer will eventually morph into Johnson, just that "Mr Toad", Alex Meyer, is likely to give Twins fans a "Wild Ride" for the next few years.   I hope the Twins get him up to the big club, sooner rather than later, and that both management and the fans can show patience when days like yesterday happen.  As I wrote in August when I reviewed his game against Louisville, there is little left for him to learn in AAA- he was a man amongst boys, only now, as Nick noted, the change-up is beginning to take shape as his third effective pitch.  The only AAA player in the park that day in Louisville that could beat Alex Meyer was Alex Meyer.

 

 At this point, it's all about ratcheting up his consistency, I'd prefer seeing that live arm doing its "ratcheting" with the Twins, but I get the Twins thinking that they need Meyer to continue pitching on a tight schedule.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jokin

[jimmer]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not freaking out about the Randy Johnson comparisons.  I'm more laughing about them :-)

 

And, you know, Santana is also being favorably compared to HOF Rod Carew on another thread.  It's amazing how many of our players have ceilings/are comparable to HOFers.  Quite the farm system we have :-)

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer

[birddog]

At his height, he has to come over the top to get as much movement on his pitches as possible, as well as a better handle on consistency of his release. I, too, thought I'd be disappointed if he was sent down to start the season, but these things always seem to work themselves out and the other 5th starters have been better--so far. Go down to the minors and get his release point and he'll be fun to watch when one of the starters falter or gets hurt. He is still our best shot for an ace on the 40 man so we have to continue our patience.

[jokin]

 

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm not freaking out about the Randy Johnson comparisons.  I'm more laughing about them :-)

 

And, you know, Santana is also being favorably compared to HOF Rod Carew on another thread.  It's amazing how many of our players have ceilings/are comparable to HOFers.  Quite the farm system we have :-)

 

My comment was directed in both directions.  Alex Meyer is not the next Koufax or the next Johnson, he's going to be the next Alex Meyer.  However, we can't ignore that physically, developmentally and the pitching approach that each possess, that comparisons of Meyer to Johnson at the same age are likely to be apt for comparison- and flame-ball pitchers at 6'9" or 6'10" are rare, unique cases.  As I've stated before, IMO, while Meyer has the best chance of any prospect in the org. in becoming an Ace, he seems just as likely in becoming a frustrating mid-to-back-end-rotation guy or a reliever.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jokin

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Quick point. The comparison is not the career potential of Alex Meyer to Randy Johnson or Sam Deduno, the comparison is actually to the control issues those guys all had.

 

I don't want to be the guy who attacks every time an Alex Meyer article pops up, so I'll let it go. We will see him this year I agree completely. Hopefully very soon. Free Alex!

[tobi0040]

 

My comment was directed in both directions.  Alex Meyer is not the next Koufax or the next Johnson, he's going to be the next Alex Meyer.  However, we can't ignore that physically, developmentally and the pitching approach that each possess, that comparisons of Meyer to Johnson at the same age are likely to be apt for comparison- and flame-ball pitchers at 6'9" or 6'10" are rare, unique cases.  As I've stated before, IMO, while Meyer has the best chance of any prospect in the org. in becoming an Ace, he seems just as likely in becoming a frustrating mid-to-back-end-rotation guy or a reliever.

 

The other thing that I think merits a comparison, the Mariners had to put up with BB/9 numbers out of Randy Johnson that  the twins have never put up with and the M's were ultimately rewarded for doing so.

 

Now, Meyer can't walk two hitters per inning like he did yesterday.  He has to improve his command.  But it is interesting to note, Meyer only allowed one run and had 3 K's in those two innings (in addition to one weak bloop hit that had a chance of being caught).  Nobody hit him hard.  When he was in a jam he reached back and overpowered guys, or dropped that really, really nice slider in there. 

 

He may get himself into trouble more often, but if nobody is squaring him up and he is striking out hitters.....he should be given a leash.  A BB/9 in the mid 4's or even 5 in the big's should not keep this kid in AAA.  In his first two years, Randy had a BB/9 of 5.4, then 4.8 the next year.  But he had k rates in the 7-8 range, HR rates at .7-.8, and hit rates of 8.1-8.2.  We need to look at more than one stat with him.

 

To a similar extend, May is similar. His hit rates, HR rates, and K rates are not like the typical Twins pitcher and should be viewed in their entirety.

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2015 by tobi0040

[jimmer]

 

The other thing that I think merits a comparison, the Mariners had to put up with BB/9 numbers out of Randy Johnson that  the twins have never put up with and the M's were ultimately rewarded for doing so.

 

 

I often wonder how much patience the Mariners would have had with his wildness had he been a right-hander.

[jokin]

 

The other thing that I think merits a comparison, the Mariners had to put up with BB/9 numbers out of Randy Johnson that  the twins have never put up with and the M's were ultimately rewarded for doing so.

 

 

 

To a similar extend, May is similar. His hit rates, HR rates, and K rates are not like the typical Twins pitcher and should be viewed in their entirety.

 

Yep on the "patience" issue.  This is why I would have liked to have seen Meyer here last year, with a continuation of his apprenticeship from the start of the season at the major league level this year.  This team can afford to be patient during the rebuilding phase- not so much if they think they are still "in it".  I think it was a missed opportunity not to get Meyer up before he hit his innings limit, say, in July, for the same, sometimes horrific, 9 starts like May got. 

[Willihammer]

I don't want to go too crazy on this because I have no medical background at all, but I did want to make a comment on this. I've played lots of rec softball in my life, often at 3rd or SS, and the one thing that I always noted about hard throws across the diamond is that if I got all the way over the top of the throw it would light up my shoulder with pain (I assume I have some kind of injury in there but I'm too lazy to bother fixing it as it's not a problem except when throwing, and I've reached an age where my softball days are probably done), but if I can drop down to a 3/4 slot it doesn't do much to my shoulder at all. Parker's probably laughing at my ignorance at this point, but I'm not sure I understand why a 3/4 slot puts more strain on your arm as that's completely opposite to my experience with throwing. I've always assumed the 3/4 slot makes the "downward plane" and potential movement, and maybe control, on pitches more problematic, but I never thought it was more likely to cause injuries.

Took the words out of my mouth. I had shoulder issues when I pitched in high school and the first thing I did when it started was drop the arm slot. I have to think that if Meyer is doing that, his shoulder is biting him.

 

Which kinda makes you wonder why they wouldn't just stick him in the pen, IMO.