Article: Wednesday Notes From Ft. Myers: A Speedy Loss

[blindeke]

I love reading these notes and am really excited for the season! I'm OK with starting some of our question mark veterans like Milone and Pelfry (ugh) because if they suck, we can rid ourselves of them right away.

 

This seems to come up every year, though... last year it was Bartlett/Kubel/crap pitcher. 

 

What are the odds of an early season trade, though, if it turns out that everyone is decent and May and Meyer are doing well at AAA? Trading much before the deadline doesn't seem like a Ryan thing to do, and I don't want to wait that long.

[Jham]

 

Are you sure that a team with Rosario at CF and Escobar at SS, does not beat them both?  Santana is not that great fielding SS and is a worse Centerfielder, and Rosario is better with the bat than him. 

I have been an advocate of Rosario in center from the first!  Mientkiewicz (the old school house rock commercial still helps me spell his name) said that he was major league ready and that his bat was the best in our farm system (including Buxton and Sano).  He was able to watch him day in and day out while managing him.  Molitor seems to love the kid.  Others more knowledgeable than me on this blog seem to think it's a given that he's sent down though.  

[Jham]

 

In 2015, probably. But in 2016, a team with a MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center probably beats a team with a non-MLB-experienced Santana at SS and Buxton in center. And the chances of contending in 2016 (and 2017) are much higher than in 2015. That's what Molitor, correctly, sees. I think the Twins will be decent this year, exceed expectations, and maybe even get close to .500, but making the playofffs in 2016 and 2017 is just way more important than getting a couple games closer to .500 this year. That's how I see it, anyway, and I think that is how Molitor sees it.

Why play hard in 2015 if we're committed to 2016/2017?  Some guys might not be around then.  Do you think Plouffe and Dozier will be as good then as now?  Perkins?  Mauer?  I think we've seen the damage of perpetually rebuilding.  I firmly believe the team needs to learn to compete, to play with pressure, and to win.  If Meyer can't out-compete Milone, how can he best Sale or Verlander in a big series?  As for Santana, I promise he'd get plenty of reps at short.  I would expect Rosario or Buxton to force their way in by midseason.  I also don't think it's automatic that Santana has a better career than Escobar.  Shouldn't we be sure about which one's actually better vs. has more potential? 
 

[USAFChief]

Would you say that if the Twins are, let's say, 10 games above .500 at the deadline?

 

 

Hal-lah-insert your word of choice here-lu-yah!

[nytwinsfan]

 

Why play hard in 2015 if we're committed to 2016/2017?  Some guys might not be around then.  Do you think Plouffe and Dozier will be as good then as now?  Perkins?  Mauer?  I think we've seen the damage of perpetually rebuilding.  I firmly believe the team needs to learn to compete, to play with pressure, and to win.  If Meyer can't out-compete Milone, how can he best Sale or Verlander in a big series?  As for Santana, I promise he'd get plenty of reps at short.  I would expect Rosario or Buxton to force their way in by midseason.  I also don't think it's automatic that Santana has a better career than Escobar.  Shouldn't we be sure about which one's actually better vs. has more potential? 
 

Because you won't have a chance to contend in 2016/2017 if you don't play hard in 2015. You need to see who is good (maybe you are right, and Santana won't be able to handle SS, but you won't know if the guys don't play their hardest in 2015). And obviously there is some chance to contend in 2015, even if it is small. And you want fans to keep coming, for many reasons. So I don't think it follows from the fact that Molitor thinks there is a much higher chance of competing in 2016 or 2017 that the team should just dog it in 2015. It probably doesn't make sense for Molitor to even admit publicly they have little chance in 2015, even if he thinks its true. That's just common sense psychology.

 

I think Dozier will be around and good then, but Plouffe will probably be traded by then. Perkins and Mauer might not be quite as good, but (1) they were not that great last year, (2) they might not be that good this year, and (3) there are a lot of potential replacements for them on the way. On balance, I think it is likely the Twins will be significantly better in 2016 and 2017. If you disagree, fine. There is always risk in prospects, true, but the current number and quality of them reduces that overall risk somewhat, and makes the upside pretty high.

 

I'm definitely not against figuring out who we want going forward. In fact, that is what I want by starting Santana at SS. We've seen Escobar at SS, and he was pretty good, I'm not denying that. But Santana has higher upside, so let's give him a shot. Escobar should certainly get plenty of playing time as the backup infielder. And if Santana falters at SS, then we can go back to Escobar. You say you want to see which one "is better and has more potential" but if you put Escobar at SS, we'll never know Santana's potential. We already know Escobars.

[Jham]

 

 

I'm definitely not against figuring out who we want going forward. In fact, that is what I want by starting Santana at SS. We've seen Escobar at SS, and he was pretty good, I'm not denying that. But Santana has higher upside, so let's give him a shot. Escobar should certainly get plenty of playing time as the backup infielder. And if Santana falters at SS, then we can go back to Escobar. You say you want to see which one "is better and has more potential" but if you put Escobar at SS, we'll never know Santana's potential. We already know Escobars.

 

I am fine with building, just not perpetual rebuilding.  I just don't think it's a good model to play guys based on "what ifs" or strictly potential if you've got suitable proven options available.  I think a lack of competition at the position mixed with losing a lot of games is dangerous combination regarding development of young players.  I think our player development has been stunted by a lack of hard work and competition more than a lack of experience at the big-league level.  When guys are competing for spots, they play harder, and work harder, and subsequently win more. 

Players are motivated by winning, money, and playing time.  The more of those factors you take out, the less motivated your players are going to be.  That means stunted prospect development, and vets with bad contracts and low trade value.

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think our player development has been stunted by a lack of hard work and competition more than a lack of experience at the big-league level.  When guys are competing for spots, they play harder, and work harder, and subsequently win more. 

Players are motivated by winning, money, and playing time.  The more of those factors you take out, the less motivated your players are going to be.  That means stunted prospect development, and vets with bad contracts and low trade value.

I don't get where this idea of lack of hard work comes from. Certainly, there are a couple of guys on this team that could be criticized for that (Hicks, mabye one or two others). But there is often one or two like that on most teams. Santana has worked his butt off by all accounts, and it just seems like baseless pop psychology to claim there is some kind of culture of losing with the Twins. And if there has been a culture of losing, which I don't have any team-wide evidence for and therefore am NOT asserting, it probably has much more to do with management (Gardy & Ryan) than it does with players. I am very very confident that Molitor will not allow there to be such a culture. He may be many things, but someone who allows a culture of losing is certainly not one of them.

 

I'm not saying that if Santana plays SS and is terrible for many weeks or months at a time, he should automatically stay there. Playing him at SS is part of the competition that you want. I'm all for competition, especially in a year where we are unlikely to be contending, but you'll never have a competition for Santana at SS if you never give him a chance there. And I'd rather have that competition this year than next year, when Buxton will be in CF.

[Jham]

 

I am very very confident that Molitor will not allow there to be such a culture. He may be many things, but someone who allows a culture of losing is certainly not one of them.

 

Again, this seems more based on perception or potential than anything.  Molitor hasn't managed one regular season game yet.  I'm not so much saying we have a culture of losing, so much as saying human nature plays a role.  Santana is a perfect example of someone who works hard and is earning his chance.  Same with Escobar.  Hicks?  Schaeffer?  Blue-chippers with a history of failure and more failure?  Hicks and Schaeffer both seem to be working hard now that their livlihood and playing time is at risk.  So hopefully they'll push each other (and Buxton/Rosario will push them both).  I would expect there may well be a change of Santana to short and Buxton/Rosario to center at some point THIS year.  I guess I just don't see the point in fielding a worse team to begin the season when all the teams are tied in the standings with the assumption that we'll be out of it by June just to get Santana more reps at short in April and May, when we have the rest of the season, all off-season, and Polanco and Gordon not all that far off.  Then again, when we're 12 out of it in June and Escobar is batting .234 I'll probably say you were right.

 

[jimmer]

 

Again, this seems more based on perception or potential than anything.  Molitor hasn't managed one regular season game yet.  I'm not so much saying we have a culture of losing, so much as saying human nature plays a role.  Santana is a perfect example of someone who works hard and is earning his chance.  Same with Escobar.  Hicks?  Schaeffer?  Blue-chippers with a history of failure and more failure?  Hicks and Schaeffer both seem to be working hard now that their livlihood and playing time is at risk.  So hopefully they'll push each other (and Buxton/Rosario will push them both).  I would expect there may well be a change of Santana to short and Buxton/Rosario to center at some point THIS year.  I guess I just don't see the point in fielding a worse team to begin the season when all the teams are tied in the standings with the assumption that we'll be out of it by June just to get Santana more reps at short in April and May, when we have the rest of the season, all off-season, and Polanco and Gordon not all that far off.  Then again, when we're 12 out of it in June and Escobar is batting .234 I'll probably say you were right.

 

Good chemistry and winning culture usually follow winning not the other way around. It's been a long time since we've heard of a really good team having bad chemistry and a losing culture.  Seems it's been even longer, if ever, that we've heard of a bad team having good chemistry and winning culture.

Edited March 20, 2015 by jimmer