Article: Offense Is Springing To Life

[Nick Nelson]

When I was down here last year, there was a lot of talk about how utterly stagnant the offense looked. You can only put so much stock into spring performances (not much), but there was reason for concern with that offensive unit coming in, and the consistent struggles to score runs in Grapefruit League games, along with the complete lack of power hitting, did nothing to alleviate such trepidations.

 

This year, there was much more inherent optimism surrounding the offense, and the production of the lineup -- especially the key players -- in exhibition play has only backed up those good vibes.The general qualms about the team's run production last spring proved overblown, as the Twins ended up outscoring all but six teams in the majors during the regular season, but the dearth of power proved to be an accurate omen.

 

In 28 Grapefruit games last year, the Twins slugged .356 and hit a total of 16 home runs, second-fewest of any team in baseball. Oswaldo Arcia and Brandon Waring tied for the team lead with two.

 

Yes, Brandon Waring.

 

The Twins went on to hit 128 homers in 2014, ranking 11th in the AL, but this year's offense offered much more promise in that department, and we're getting an early preview now.

 

On Tuesday, the team went deep four times against the Orioles, pushing this spring's count to 14 -- just two short of last spring's total with two-and-a-half weeks left to play.

 

And these home runs aren't coming from the Brandon Warings of the world; they're coming from key players that the Twins are actually relying on to be power producers in the lineup.

 

Chief among them is Kennys Vargas.

 

Paul Molitor was quick to downplay the long ball barrage that took place at Ed Smith Stadium on Tuesday, pointing out that it's one of the smaller parks in the circuit and there were some favorable winds at play, but he couldn't hide his fascination with Vargas' team-leading third dinger, which cleared the wall in right-center field.

 

"Vargas' was a strange one," the manager said. "At that particular juncture [the wind] was kind of blowing in from right, and he got an off-speed pitch that he hit a little bit off the end of the bat. It still got out."

 

A big, lumbering specimen with ridiculous strength, Vargas has always offered tantalizing power potential, and whether or not the runs matter, it's great to see that playing out on the field.

 

The same goes for Miguel Sano, who was cut from camp on Sunday after hitting two majestic blasts in the previous week. Something tells me he won't be in the minors for too long.

 

Sano is a wild card down the line, but the lineup that the Twins will trot out on Opening Day has plenty of juice up and down. In 2014 the club got an above-average OPS from regulars at every position, and that could be the case again, with steps forward in a few areas.

 

Even the players who are expected to regress are hardly major causes for concern.

 

Sure, Danny Santana probably won't replicate that incredible rookie output (though he does have a 1.036 OPS this spring), but he's shifting to shortstop and looks pretty slick there defensively, so he doesn't need to hit a ton.

 

When Kurt Suzuki inevitably regresses, you've got Josmil Pinto's potent bat waiting behind him.

 

Eduardo Escobar hit a grand slam as part of Tuesday's onslaught. His OPS last year was higher than all but five qualifying MLB shortstops. And he currently projects as a utility man.

 

It seems like everywhere the Twins might potentially project to have a weakness, they've got a contingency plan or prospect in the wings. That was always the blueprint, and now it's coming to fruition.

 

I'd be remiss not to mention the guy whose offensive production this spring overshadows all others. Brian Dozier hit two doubles on Tuesday and is batting .556 with a ludicrous 1.635 OPS in Grapefruit play.

 

Meaningless numbers, yeah yeah. But he's hitting everything hard right now, and that's great to see as he enters his age-28 season coming off back-to-back strong campaigns. It gives Molitor a ton of flexibility as he contemplates his lineup.

 

"So far it hasn't really mattered where I've hit him, he's swung the bat well first, second or third," Molitor said, "so we're just mixing it up because I'm sure that given match-ups and different scenarios and who's playing on a given day he's probably going to have to fill all three at some time or another."

 

When everyone's hitting the ball as well as they are right now, Molitor can do no wrong. And if that continues into the regular season, the rookie manager is going to look like quite the genius regardless of how he fills out lineup card.

 

Click here to view the article

[clank2000]

Let's not forget Rosario's hard smash single off of lefty McFarland. That sounded loud.

[Nick Nelson]

Rosario is among those contingency plan/prospects that I was referring to. If Hicks finally figures it out, great. If not, boy is Rosario looking good. The way he's "staying in there off left-handed pitchers" was one thing that Molitor specifically called out post-game.

[Dantes929]

"In 2014 the club got an above-average OPS from regulars at every position, and that could be the case again, with steps forward in a few areas"

 

Huh? 1st base? left field? right field? DH? Maybe I missed something there..

[jokin]

"In 2014 the club got an above-average OPS from regulars at every position, and that could be the case again, with steps forward in a few areas"

 

Huh? 1st base? left field? right field? DH? Maybe I missed something there..

Yup.

 

1st AL .731 Mauer .732

RF AL .706 Arcia .752

LF AL .724 Hammer .747

DH AL .733 Vargas .772

[highlander]

I'm calling my bookie and taking the Twins over/under win total over!

[tobi0040]

 

I'm calling my bookie and taking the Twins over/under win total over!

 

It does seem like a pretty decent bet. For the Twins to land at 69 wins or less, we are not getting much of anything out of a list of guys that could provide value this year, IMO.  Specifically, Rosario, May, Meyer, Sano, Buxton, Vargas. and Berrios.

 

I think at least two guys from this list emerge earlier than people are expecting and help this team win games.

[brvama]

Spring certainly does bring optimism with anticipation of new life. It is coming across in the reports (thanks ya'll) and in the comments.

 

We've been waiting for a turn around and the way things appear it's close, maybe this year. Feels like we're in turn 2 looking for some passing lanes on the back stretch.

 

It's a long season, but it's spring - hope is alive and well. Something that has been missing recently. I think I'll enjoy this year of Twins baseball!

[Parker Hageman]

When Kurt Suzuki inevitably regresses...

 

 

Is this in reference to his spring performance or his .288/.345/.383 line last year? If it's towards the .357/.429/.429 spring line, yeah, sure. Inevitable. But the 2014 numbers? Meh. I'm not certain it is "inevitable".

 

Those 2014 numbers were definitely supported by the hot start -- and I've banged this drum a lot -- but the mechanical changes he made to his swing after his trade to Oakland gave him better plate coverage. Will his BABIP remain over .300? No, probably not. That might be inevitable. But if he continues to avoid fly balls like he did last season, there's no reason his BABIP has to regress too far below .270-.280.

 

In my opinion, the drop off from August on seemed to be simply wearing down. Catching takes its toll, particularly when you are on the wrong side of 30. What would be beneficial is to mix in Pinto (or whoever) more frequently during the first-half of the season in order to keep Suzuki fresh throughout the season. 

 

Overall, I'd bet the under on his 2015 numbers but I'm not expecting a collapse.

 

 

 

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

Yup.

1st AL .731 Mauer .732
RF AL .706 Arcia .752
LF AL .724 Hammer .747
DH AL .733 Vargas .772

Thank you.   I was looking at ESPN site and was looking at entire league.     So Mauer in his worst year was still better than average in OPS among 1st basemen?   I have always been a Mauer defender but that sure didn't feel like an above average season for a 1st baseman.

[Mike Sixel]

This is a great example of why averages suck for comparing stuff.....it completely ignores variance. It completely ignores how valuable an outlier (elite) number is in a situation like this.

 

That said, as Oakland mostly showed last year, you can win with a team that has no weaknesses, and no elite players also......

[USAFChief]

Nitpics:

 

Per baseballref:

 

First basemen in the AL 2014 OPS: .735

LFers: .722

RFers: .726

CFers: .712

DHs: .744

 

Twins first basemen: .669

LFers: .663

RFers: .731

CFers: .746

DHs: .765

 

I don't know exactly what Nick meant by "regulars" but the Twins got above league average OPS's from DH and CF last year, slightly above average OPS from RF, and below average from 1b and LF.

 

Above average from C, 2b, SS, and 3b, btw.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yup.

1st AL .731 Mauer .732
RF AL .706 Arcia .752
LF AL .724 Hammer .747
DH AL .733 Vargas .772

I find it curious that people don't seem to realize how much baseball has changed in the past five years. Offense is WAY down from the early 2000s. Any OPS over .700 is respectable in today's game.

[jimmer]

There were 31 1Bs who logged 400 or more PAs, Mauer was 21st in wRC+.  He was slightly below average.  If he had reached his career wRC+, that would have put him in the top 10. If he had reached what he did in 2013 prior to concussion, that would have put him 6th.

Edited March 18, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That said, as Oakland mostly showed last year, you can win with a team that has no weaknesses, and no elite players also......

I've always believed that good players get you to the playoffs while elite players (or some luck, which can't be accounted for) help you win in the playoffs.

 

It's a fine line to walk. A team of 2014 Trevor Plouffes will almost surely get you to the playoffs but I'm not sure they'll win once you get there (going by Trevor's offensive numbers, not his overall WAR).

[Mike Sixel]

Danny Santana ain't in CF to keep those numbers up........if it is Hicks/Schaefer, good luck being near league average. Good luck not being in the bottom 2 or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Danny Santana ain't in CF to keep those numbers up........if it is Hicks/Schaefer, good luck being near league average. Good luck not being in the bottom 2 or so.

If used in a proper platoon, they probably won't kill you in center... Schafer is the real question mark here. I'm not worried about Hicks in a platoon, as he had an OPS of .792 against lefties in 2014 and has a career split of .758 against southpaws.

[Willihammer]

I'm excited about the bats. Vargas is going to hit some tape measure shots and Santana is going to continue to slap slash slip and slide his way above expectations. I can't find more than 2 possible soft spots in the lineup if everyone's healthy (knock on wood).

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nitpics:

Per baseballref:

First basemen in the AL 2014 OPS: .735
LFers: .722
RFers: .726
CFers: .712
DHs: .744

Twins first basemen: .669
LFers: .663
RFers: .731
CFers: .746
DHs: .765

I don't know exactly what Nick meant by "regulars" but the Twins got above league average OPS's from DH and CF last year, slightly above average OPS from RF, and below average from 1b and LF.

Above average from C, 2b, SS, and 3b, btw.

Regulars: Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Willingham/Schafer, Santana, Arcia, Vargas. All had an OPS+ of 100 or above. As jokin mentioned, it's also true relative to position.

[blindeke]

 

I've always believed that good players get you to the playoffs while elite players (or some luck, which can't be accounted for) help you win in the playoffs.

 

 

The Royals did it... the only thing "elite" was their bullpen.

[jokin]

 

Nitpics:

Per baseballref:

First basemen in the AL 2014 OPS: .735
LFers: .722
RFers: .726
CFers: .712
DHs: .744

Twins first basemen: .669
LFers: .663
RFers: .731
CFers: .746
DHs: .765

I don't know exactly what Nick meant by "regulars" but the Twins got above league average OPS's from DH and CF last year, slightly above average OPS from RF, and below average from 1b and LF.

Above average from C, 2b, SS, and 3b, btw.

My numbers were taken directly off of Fangraphs. I'm not certain why they differ from BRef, and it was pretty clear who Nick meant by the "regulars".

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Royals did it... the only thing "elite" was their bullpen.

In no way did I mean to imply that it's impossible to win in the playoffs without elite players, only that it's somewhat harder to do (again, IMO).

 

Elite players can carry you through a game or even a series. Good players carry you through a season.

[jokin]

 

Danny Santana ain't in CF to keep those numbers up........if it is Hicks/Schaefer, good luck being near league average. Good luck not being in the bottom 2 or so.

 

You don't think in a proper platoon that CF at least has the chance to be near League Average?

 

2014 AL CF-  OPS .722 wRC+ 105

 

2014 HIcks v. LHP-  OPS  .792  wRC+ 133

2014 Schaf v RHP-  OPS  .681  wRC+  94

Edited March 18, 2015 by jokin

[tobi0040]

 

In no way did I mean to imply that it's impossible to win in the playoffs without elite players, only that it's somewhat harder to do (again, IMO).

 

It is also debatable they only had an elite bullpen.  Ventura had an ERA of 3.20, both in the regular season and playoff.  That is pretty close to elite.

 

Gordon had an OPS of .783 and a WAR of 6.6.  Cain's was 4.9. 

[Lazarus]

Much of this offense has been generated against AA and AAA pitching. Beginning about a week from now, they will be in the spring training home stretch and getting more serious - let's see how the offense rounds into shape then. Same opinion about our pitching.

 

However the roster is constructed on Opening Day, I'll be pretty disappointed if The Prospects don't force their way onto the roster during the year. The not-so-subtle hints from TR and PM suggest that they feel the same way. No excuses about buying the extra cheap year either - that's a non-issue before the end of April this year (if I have to listen any more to Cubs fans whine about Bryant spending the first two weeks of the season in the minors before coming up I think my head's going to explode).

[Dantes929]

 

I've always believed that good players get you to the playoffs while elite players (or some luck, which can't be accounted for) help you win in the playoffs.

 

It's a fine line to walk. A team of 2014 Trevor Plouffes will almost surely get you to the playoffs but I'm not sure they'll win once you get there (going by Trevor's offensive numbers, not his overall WAR).

Get the Twins to the playoffs and I would be happy with their chances.    It is always better to have elite players.  They help you get to the playoffs also.  Good players and even not so good help you win in the playoffs.   History is littered with Bucky Dents, Billy Marins, Brian Lemke's.    Drew Butera can outplay Mauer in any given series and Blackburn can outpitch Verlander in any given game.    I would never bet on it but the small sample size of the playoffs bring the good and elite players closer together rather than farther apart.   Putting it simpler a team of 2014 could never hope to get to the playoffs against a team of 2007 Derek Jeter.  Once in the playoffs team  Plouffe would definitely be a big underdog but not a hopeless one in a 5 or 7 game series..

[TwinsMasochist]

Escobar is deserving of place in the starting lineup.. somewhere.  If not with the twins, I hope we can move him for a decent return to a team sorely needing production at 3B or SS.  It would be a shame to waste his lively bat and slick defense in some sort of platoon or bench role.  He has earned the opportunity to start.  We have Nunez to fill in the bench void Escobar would leave and his numbers and ability are much more suited for a bench role than Escobar's are.  

[Parker Hageman]

Part of me doesn't want to open this can of worms given the sample-size and spring training in general, but Joe Mauer has not done well at the plate in his 18 plate appearances. [18 plate appearances?! Geez. Now that I see it in print it seems even more absurd.] No one seems to be mentioning this from the team's perspective -- is he getting good swings? Hitting the ball well at people? Not swinging well? Be nice for an update in that regard. 

 

 

I'll hang up and listen to you guys.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I find it curious that people don't seem to realize how much baseball has changed in the past five years. Offense is WAY down from the early 2000s. Any OPS over .700 is respectable in today's game.

 

.700 seems low to me. In 2014, in the American League alone, 57 batters had an OPS of .700 or above.

 

Maybe .750 is a more reasonable benchmark? But even 32 AL batters did that.

 

.800? 13 batters.

 

 

Source: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/OPS

 

 

[jimmer]

 

.700 seems low to me. In 2014, in the American League alone, 57 batters had an OPS of .700 or above.

 

Maybe .750 is a more reasonable benchmark? But even 32 AL batters did that.

 

.800? 13 batters.

 

 

Source: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/OPS

He's saying .700 is respectable, not good or great.  

 

There are 15 teams and 9 spots in teh order for each team.  That 135 spots.

 

131 players had 300 or more PAs in the AL last year, 85 were at .700 or better.  So .700 is respectable. If you're looking at what the player with the 65th best OPS was with 300 or more PAs (65 being right around the middle of 131) it was our very own Eduardo Escobar with his .721 OPS.

Edited March 18, 2015 by jimmer