Article: Milone Making His Case, But Not Making Excuses

[Nick Nelson]

Just like last year, the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation is a preeminent storyline here at Minnesota Twins camp. This time around, however, the competition is a little more compelling, featuring contenders that offer a quite a bit more reason for optimism.

 

The fact that Tommy Milone is anything but a lock illustrates that well enough.It came as a surprise when Kyle Gibson won the final rotation spot a year ago, but looking back, perhaps it shouldn't have. Vance Worley and Scott Diamond were both coming off horrendous seasons, and Samuel Deduno was a 30-year-old journeyman with very iffy command. All three are now out of the organization.

 

Comparatively speaking, the group of hurlers vying to round out the starting corps this year is superior by leaps and bounds, and perhaps that speaks to the all-around improvement of the pitching staff

 

Top prospects Alex Meyer and Trevor May both have put in full seasons at Triple-A, with May even logging some MLB time. Mike Pelfrey is back from elbow surgery and (evidently) finally healthy. And then there's Milone, who might be the most accomplished big-leaguer of the bunch.

 

Fans haven't been able to muster a ton of excitement for Milone, and that's understandable. The lefty lacks sexy strikeout totals or big velocity readings, and was awful in his first stint with the Twins after being acquired from the Athletics at the deadline last year.

 

At the time, it was widely expected that some regression was in store with a move away from Oakland's friendly confines, but Milone's numbers with the Twins -- 17 earned runs allowed on 37 hits and 11 walks in 21 2/3 innings -- were brutal beyond what anyone could have anticipated.

 

So, was a benign tumor in his neck that required surgery after the season to blame for the shoddy results? For his part, the 28-year-old says no.

 

"I don't think it ever really affected me while I was out there on the mound," Milone said. "It was a big factor obviously when I couldn't physically go out there and pitch, but there were very few instances where I was out there and actually did feel it."

 

"I wouldn't say that my pitching bad when I came over here was a direct reflection of my neck hurting."

 

That may not seem like the most encouraging news, as it would be nice to have a convenient explanation for the struggles. But Milone isn't making excuses, and even though he went through a shortened offseason thanks to early December neck surgery -- "I kind of had to rush myself to get ready" -- the southpaw has looked sharp so far this spring.

 

Milone hasn't allowed a run in five innings across two outings in Grapefruit League play. On Monday, he pitched against May in a minor-league game, and after giving up a two-run homer to the third batter he faced, Milone settled in to retire 11 straight.

 

Between those three appearances, the lefty has yet to issue a single walk. Attacking the strike zone is critical to his success, so that's a promising sign that is surely helping his case in the eyes of decision-makers.

 

Setting aside the numbers from last August and September, it's important to remember that Milone has a strong track record stretching back through his entire professional career. In addition to his 3.84 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 468 2/3 MLB innings prior to coming here, he also posted strong numbers at every level of the minors.

 

On a team desperate for quality starting pitching, that kind of background would often be an automatic ticket for a starting spot, regardless of a poor 20-inning run late last season. But Milone needs to beat out some tough competition to earn his way into the Twins' rotation.

 

So far he's been doing everything he needs to. He's not a lock, but at this point, I'd say it's his job to lose.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

I definitely am a big believer in track record, and Milone certainly has that. We all like velocity and strikeouts, but there have been a lot of guys in this game's history that have succeeded without those things.

 

 

[nater79a]

I don't even know how to handicap this race for the 5th starter spot. Milone, Pelfrey, May and Meyer have all pitched well so far this spring.  Everything being equal, probably an edge to experience. Should be an interesting final couple weeks.

[Dantes929]

 

I definitely am a big believer in track record, and Milone certainly has that. We all like velocity and strikeouts, but there have been a lot of guys in this game's history that have succeeded without those things.

I am more a believer in stuff.   A good curve ball and good change up with great control and a mediocre fastball can play better than a good fastball with mediocre curveball, change up and control.    Of course having all good is preferred but not too many Johann Santana's walking around.    There was a piece on here earlier saying  Milone's fastball has been on a downward trend in velocity.    The more the gap decreases between his fastball and changeup the less confidence I have in him.   Seth,  are there any reports on him gaining a little velocity back?   I know its early but that seems to be a pretty big factor.

[Kwak]

The Twins have demonstrated a huge bias for "veterans" instead of rookies. Given the people, the contracts, the past four years, and "rumblings" there is little reason to believe the #5 starter won't be either Milone or Pelfrey. I have yet to ever hear/read any regret by Twins' management about acquiring a "value vet", beginning the season with him as a regular, and then watching him disappoint. I certainly don't think I'll read any regret in 2015 either. They will just insert the "replacement" and bite-their-toungue.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins have demonstrated a huge bias for "veterans" instead of rookies. Given the people, the contracts, the past four years, and "rumblings" there is little reason to believe the #5 starter won't be either Milone or Pelfrey. I have yet to ever hear/read any regret by Twins' management about acquiring a "value vet", beginning the season with him as a regular, and then watching him disappoint. I certainly don't think I'll read any regret in 2015 either. They will just insert the "replacement" and bite-their-toungue.

Maybe, but the Twins go with Vets thing is old and overblown.  And they had the same issue last year and went with the rookie over three vets. 

[nicksaviking]

I definitely am a big believer in track record, and Milone certainly has that. We all like velocity and strikeouts, but there have been a lot of guys in this game's history that have succeeded without those things.

There have, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Milone could do it again. It's just frustrating that our team seems to go out of its way to try to foster those long-shots, more so than any other team.

Edited March 17, 2015 by nicksaviking

[h2oface]

Maybe I have missed it, but what velocity is Milone's fastball coming in at in Spring Training so far? I was always concerned that the difference in his fastball and change was about 7 mph last year. 

 

So far, the only pitchers that have actually received starts this spring training are Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, and Milone. Meyer, May, Berrios, and Pelfrey all came in after the starters. Does that mean anything?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe, but the Twins go with Vets thing is old and overblown. And they had the same issue last year and went with the rookie over three vets.

Two of those "vets" had already failed and been demoted the year prior. The third "vet" had never pitched a full MLB season before. (Actually neither Diamond nor Deduno had a full MLB season under their belt. Only Worley did in that group, and it was one injury-shortened season.)

 

If you think that is a great example of the team trusting an inexperienced talent over an established vet, I believe you are mistaken.

[Squirrel]

So far, the only pitchers that have actually received starts this spring training are Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, and Milone. Meyer, May, Berrios, and Pelfrey all came in after the starters. Does that mean anything?

It only means that there were too many starting pitchers playing games that first week and only pitching 2-3 innings and everyone needed to get in some regular work that that's just how it worked out. Even going forward it might not mean that much until starters are consistently going 4-5 innings. Then we'll see.

 

Last year I was right in my prediction with Gibson. This year I just really have no idea. Before games were starting I would've given May the best shot but I really think it could go a number of directions. But I'm preparing myself for May and Meyer starting in AAA, and that makes me a little frustrated. Something has to give (ie a trade).

[Todd_L]

I expect Milone will get the 5th starter job.  The fact he's a lefty was always going to tilt things in his favor as long as he didn't implode this spring which he clearly hasn't.  Though they may not admit it, they surely want a lefty presence in their starting rotation even if Milone gets slightly outperformed by one of the other contenders.  Of course I could be very wrong, but that's what I'd put money on if I had to.  

[Halsey Hall]

At first they only go a couple of innings, as they are on pitch counts, and still are.  Yesterday Milone threw 60, and May 45.  Next time Milone will go to 75 and May to 60.  May is one outing behind Milone now. 

 

Not much of a day off for those two yesterday, and I thought Perkins would throw too.  No sign of him.  Maybe today in the games at the minor league end.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

So far, the only pitchers that have actually received starts this spring training are Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, and Milone. Meyer, May, Berrios, and Pelfrey all came in after the starters. Does that mean anything?

I wouldn't read too much into it right now. 

[Platoon]

It only means that there were too many starting pitchers playing games that first week and only pitching 2-3 innings and everyone needed to get in some regular work that that's just how it worked out. Even going forward it might not mean that much until starters are consistently going 4-5 innings. Then we'll see.

Last year I was right in my prediction with Gibson. This year I just really have no idea. Before games were starting I would've given May the best shot but I really think it could go a number of directions. But I'm preparing myself for May and Meyer starting in AAA, and that makes me a little frustrated. Something has to give (ie a trade).

I would bet it's Milone. It's a little harder to predict since the regime change, but since TR still makes the final decision I can't see it going another way. Your post gave me an idea for a new site: Frustrated Twins Daily Fans. (FTDF). It's following is sure to grow as the season progresses. .

[Dantes929]

I'm really not too concerned about any of this.    It really is just a matter of patience.   I want May but I will be frustrated if May and Meyer are throwing sub 3 ERA in AAA  and any  of the starters are above 5 in June.     If May and Meyer do there part they will force the issue if any of the rotation falters.   If the rotation all perform well that is a good thing and that is when tough decisions will need to be made.

[nicksaviking]

 

  If May and Meyer do there part they will force the issue if any of the rotation falters.  

 

So if they don't force the issue, we never see them? 

 

Some times the issue has to be force upon the youngsters, plenty don't show their full potential until they get to the highest level.

[Dantes929]

 

So if they don't force the issue, we never see them? 

 

Some times the issue has to be force upon the youngsters, plenty don't show their full potential until they get to the highest level.

Define plenty.    Since 2010 we have an almost completely turned over roster during which period we were promoting lots of guys that we forced the issue upon and most failed.    Even those that you speak of that did succeed probably would have forced the issue soon enough.   Success in the minors is still the best indicator.    May forced the issue last year but unfortunately got hurt.   I thought Meyer did as well and he is the ONLY example I know of in the past 4 years of a guy maybe earning a promotion that did not get it.   Mostly its been guys getting promoted without forcing the issue in the minors.    I much prefer it the other way around.    I wish Nolasco didn't have a secure spot and if Milone gets the nod it won't be all that secure.    Meyer doesn't have to improve all that much over last year to get the nod if those guys are not pitching well.  I am quite comfortable with either May or Meyer.   If everyone pitches well then that means we have a good rotation with valuable pieces to promote or trade. 

[bird]

 

Two of those "vets" had already failed and been demoted the year prior. The third "vet" had never pitched a full MLB season before. (Actually neither Diamond nor Deduno had a full MLB season under their belt. Only Worley did in that group, and it was one injury-shortened season.)

If you think that is a great example of the team trusting an inexperienced talent over an established vet, I believe you are mistaken.

 

Have they passed on an inexperienced talent with talent though? And in favor of a vet of lesser talent? Gibson, May, and Meyer are the first real talents I've seen around these parts in awhile. The last inexperienced talents we had before them had names like Walters, Hernandez, and DeVries.

 

That said, I do agree they tend to distrust young pitchers to perform with any level of consistency. But it's not like Milone is talent-free. He may win the job because he should. Now Correia, that's a different story..

 

[troyhobbs]

 

I expect Milone will get the 5th starter job.  The fact he's a lefty was always going to tilt things in his favor as long as he didn't implode this spring which he clearly hasn't.  Though they may not admit it, they surely want a lefty presence in their starting rotation even if Milone gets slightly outperformed by one of the other contenders.  Of course I could be very wrong, but that's what I'd put money on if I had to.  

I think it's fair for management to give the lefty a little edge against the competition just to mix up the rotation a little so long as he's not a complete turd. I don't have a problem w/ May and/or Meyer starting in AAA so long as they're the 1st ones up, which I believe would have to be the case this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe, but the Twins go with Vets thing is old and overblown.  And they had the same issue last year and went with the rookie over three vets. 

Another point: those three "vets" that Gibson beat were all making the league minimum salary, just like Gibson.

 

At this point, barring trade or injury, Milone or Pelfrey is getting the 5th starter spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wouldn't read too much into it right now. 

I think it's a fair observation.

 

Last spring, all of the guys legitimately in the mix for the rotation had started games within the first 13 days of spring training, with the exception of Deduno who didn't start a game all spring (and I don't think was ever a serious rotation candidate, barring injury).  That includes Gibson.

 

This year, we will reach that point tomorrow (Wednesday March 18) and the only official starters at that point (assuming the next two days probables are correct) will be the six returning veterans (Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey).  (Actually, last year, Gibson got his first official start at the same time Pelfrey is now scheduled to get his first this year.)

 

We're pretty near the decision time with May and Meyer.  I think it is already pretty clear they're not cracking the rotation without an injury or trade, but if they don't start a game by the end of the week, it will be all but official.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Have they passed on an inexperienced talent with talent though? And in favor of a vet of lesser talent? Gibson, May, and Meyer are the first real talents I've seen around these parts in awhile. The last inexperienced talents we had before them had names like Walters, Hernandez, and DeVries.

 

That said, I do agree they tend to distrust young pitchers to perform with any level of consistency. But it's not like Milone is talent-free. He may win the job because he should. Now Correia, that's a different story..

It was Kwak's general point.  I was just refuting the "Gibson beat 3 veterans last spring" example.

 

We've definitely lacked pitching talent recently, although I'd say Hendriks should top your list of recent inexperienced guys who had a short leash.

[Mike Sixel]

I think it is Milone or Pelfrey, just like the bullpen is veterans probably. I'm not going to judge that decision right now, even though I disagree with it. Maybe it will work, but I'm not betting my house on it.

[Dave T]

Milone looks good to me so far this spring.  If he keeps pitching like this, he will win the 5th spot on merit.  I would still like to see the Twins put Nolasco in this group, and have an open competition for the fourth AND fifth starting spots.  I don't care what Nolasco's excuse was last year, he shouldn't get a guaranteed spot.

[nicksaviking]

 

Define plenty.    Since 2010 we have an almost completely turned over roster during which period we were promoting lots of guys that we forced the issue upon and most failed.   

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

 

They don't seem to afford starting pitching prospects the same opportunities to work out their flaws at the MLB level that they do to position prospects.  This might be due to the fact that they have had such an awful track record with young pitching the last decade, but I think an over-cautiousness is doing everyone a disservice.  Afterall, a position player is much more likely to be a useful player into his mid-30's.  In an era where signing free agents arms to multi-year deals is a fool's errand, you have to get all the pitches out of your young guys that you can before they become a liability.  I don't know why minor league innings are any less of a concern for wear and tear on a pitcher than major league innings.  From a logistiacl standpoint, pitchers should be called up before hitters.  Lots of clubs seem to be figuring this out recently.

Edited March 17, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Mike Sixel]

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

 

They don't seem to afford starting pitching prospects the same opportunities to work out their flaws at the MLB level that they do to position prospects.  This might be due to the fact that they have had such an awful track record with young pitching the last decade, but I think an over-cautiousness is doing everyone a disservice.  Afterall, a position player is much more likely to be a useful player into his mid-30's.  In an era where signing free agents arms to multi-year deals is a fool's errand, you have to get all the pitches out of your young guys that you can before they become a liability.  I don't know why minor league innings are any less of a concern for wear and tear on a pitcher than major league innings.  From a logistiacl standpoint, pitchers should be called up before hitters.  Lots of clubs seem to be figuring this out recently.

 

I'd like this 10000000x if I could. Gotta get those pitches out of the arm before it breaks, especially RP guys. Not to mention that research shows they start losing speed on their pitches earlier than thought......

Edited March 17, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

I think you're on to something.  They haven't had a whole of comparable pitchers, but Liam Hendriks seemed to have a much shorter leash than, say, Dozier and Hicks.

 

Both Dozier and Hicks started for 3-4 months straight as rookies, posted an awful ~65 OPS+, and were demoted to AAA in August.  Then both returned to the MLB lineup to open their second seasons and struggled for 2+ months without losing their jobs.

 

Meanwhile, Hendriks got 4 starts to close 2011, but only lasted a month (4 starts) into 2012 despite an obvious SP shortage, and only lasted 2 starts into 2013 (and only due to Diamond's injury) despite an even more obvious SP shortage.  It took 2+ seasons for Hendriks to accumulate the same MLB time as Dozier and Hicks did in just over 1 season each.

 

The whole time, his ERA+ was in the same ballpark as Dozier/Hicks OPS+, and his Sickels prospect grades were comparable too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hendriks is obviously no great shakes now, so it is easy to say "they evaluated him correctly" but look who else we started in those losing seasons.  It would have been akin to demoting Hicks and Dozier as they struggled a month or so into each of their first two seasons, in favor of Mastroianni and Casilla or something.

[Kwak]

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

 

They don't seem to afford starting pitching prospects the same opportunities to work out their flaws at the MLB level that they do to position prospects.  This might be due to the fact that they have had such an awful track record with young pitching the last decade, but I think an over-cautiousness is doing everyone a disservice.  Afterall, a position player is much more likely to be a useful player into his mid-30's.  In an era where signing free agents arms to multi-year deals is a fool's errand, you have to get all the pitches out of your young guys that you can before they become a liability.  I don't know why minor league innings are any less of a concern for wear and tear on a pitcher than major league innings.  From a logistiacl standpoint, pitchers should be called up before hitters.  Lots of clubs seem to be figuring this out recently.

Exactly! Push the successful pitchers through the organization--until they stall. Utilize the options on pitchers moving them up and down from the major league, not waste them on aguy who will spend the entire season in the minors. If a pitcher burns-through his options, and doesn't "make it'--so be it! Promote the next candidate or rent a free agent.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

 

Great post nick.  I've been banging this drum for over a year now too.  Their expectations for a pitcher promotion vs. a hitter promotion are ridiculously different.  Hearing them downplay Meyer's readiness while Hicks .180s his way into the lineup every day is mind boggling.

 

It seems so backwards.