What is the Twins' Greatest Need?

[stringer bell]

I saw a note on the "other baseball" thread that mentioned that Chris Carter of the Astros was available and my first thought was "not the Twins" with their backlog of DH and poor-fielding corner players.

 

I started thinking what the Twins might want to trade for and besides high-ceiling starting pitching, I really don't see what they would be looking for. I guess they could use premier talent at any position, but they appear to have starting depth (at least now), relief pitching depth and a prospect at almost every position.

 

My point here is that it would seem unlikely that the Twins will be trading for any out-of-options types or any guys who would be only a small improvement over what they have. We have all noted that the starting corner outfielders don't profile as good defenders. There is a competition in center between three candidates who haven't set the big leagues on fire, and there are at least three positions where significant regression is (unfortunately) pretty likely.

 

If the Twins were to trade some pitching excess (starting or relieving) who or what should they be looking for in return?

[jokin]

 

"Twins were to trade some pitching excess..."

 

Yes the Twins are backlogged with excess pitching, unfortunately, almost all of that "pitching excess" is of the untradeable variety- at least in the sense of netting a team upgrade.  

 

Anyone in particular that you have in mind?

[NoCryingInBaseball]

^{Younger pitching prospects with high ceilings} 

[TheLeviathan]

More guys better at playing baseball?

[stringer bell]

Yes the Twins are backlogged with excess pitching, unfortunately, almost all of that "pitching excess" is of the untradeable variety- at least in the sense of netting a team upgrade.  

 

Anyone in particular that you have in mind?

The only player I know of that I think would really help the Twins is Peter Bourgos, who would be a major upgrade defensively over anyone the Twins would put out there. I understand that Bourgos would only be in center for a portion of 2015 and that he isn't a great hitter, but IMHO the biggest need the position players have is improving outfield defense.

[RedBull34]

 

More guys better at playing baseball?

If we send Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, and Brian Duensing in a package, that has to get us Cole Hamels right?

[nicksaviking]

Carter's rare power in this age of baseball probably means he costs more then his deeper numbers suggest he should.

 

I doubt anyone would be willing to give up Kyle Gibson but he might be the closest Twin to what Houston would look for.

[Brock Beauchamp]

^{Younger pitching prospects with high ceilings}

They already have a handful of those, though.

 

It's a difficult question to answer without asking whether you want to improve the MiLB system or the MLB team in 2015.

[TheLeviathan]

 

If we send Levi Michael, Alex Wimmers, and Brian Duensing in a package, that has to get us Cole Hamels right?

 

Whoa....no reason to overpay like that.  We already included Duensing.

[gunnarthor]

 

I saw a note on the "other baseball" thread that mentioned that Chris Carter of the Astros was available and my first thought was "not the Twins" with their backlog of DH and poor-fielding corner players.

I started thinking what the Twins might want to trade for and besides high-ceiling starting pitching, I really don't see what they would be looking for. I guess they could use premier talent at any position, but they appear to have starting depth (at least now), relief pitching depth and a prospect at almost every position.

My point here is that it would seem unlikely that the Twins will be trading for any out-of-options types or any guys who would be only a small improvement over what they have. We have all noted that the starting corner outfielders don't profile as good defenders. There is a competition in center between three candidates who haven't set the big leagues on fire, and there are at least three positions where significant regression is (unfortunately) pretty likely.

If the Twins were to trade some pitching excess (starting or relieving) who or what should they be looking for in return?

 

 

I think the following positions are pretty much locked up either for current guys or the Twins won't do something to block it for the future - 1B (Mauer), 2B (Dozier), 3B (Sano/Plouffe), CF (? until Buxton), LF (Arcia).  They probably have enough MI prospects to somehow hold down shortstop.

 

I think Vargas at DH is the weakest link for this year, he could be a AAAA guy like Klaw thinks.  If he can't hit at this level, then we have some depth behind him but no big bat to take over.  Maybe Hunter moves to DH and Schafer/Rosario goes to the corner?  Bats are really tough to get right now.  And they don't really have a catcher of the future either.  So, I guess if they wanted to package Meyer to the Mets for Pawlecki, the Mets would probably have to listen. 

[Halsey Hall]

Our greatest need right now IMO is bullpen.  I think it's shakey as it is with all those arms.

[Mike Sixel]

A willingness to stop playing mediocre veterans with no upside, and to promote young players sooner rather than later.

 

but that probably wasn't the question.....

 

LF (Rosario might be that guy, the fact they have him playing CF in the minors is mind bogglingly bad resource management, given they have Buxton) or catcher (I don't believe in Kurt, and they don't believe in Josmil). I think they have the bullpen arms in AA and AAA, they just won't promote them right now. 

[Platoon]

A willingness to stop playing mediocre veterans with no upside, and to promote young players sooner rather than later.

 

but that probably wasn't the question.....

 

LF (Rosario might be that guy, the fact they have him playing CF in the minors is mind bogglingly bad resource management, given they have Buxton) or catcher (I don't believe in Kurt, and they don't believe in Josmil). I think they have the bullpen arms in AA and AAA, they just won't promote them right now.

 

. I tried to like this more than once but it won't let me!

[Boom Boom]

Fewer veterans would also be my answer. For a supposedly rebuilding team, they're awfully old, and got even older somehow this last offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

LF (Rosario might be that guy, the fact they have him playing CF in the minors is mind bogglingly bad resource management, given they have Buxton)

That's only a problem if one stops the other from playing or being promoted. If a guy can play CF, he can play a corner outfield spot with almost no adjustment time. If the guy has the ability to play CF, you keep him there as long as possible because up the middle players are more valuable and flexible to fit your roster needs.

[nicksaviking]

Seems to me a guy at the front of the rotation who can give you 230 innings with a K/9 of 9.0 and an ERA+ of 130 would do the trick.

[Thegrin]

We have a rookie manager and a rookie pitching coach.  I suspect that this will be a painfully obvious weakness by the All Star break.

[Brock Beauchamp]

We have a rookie manager and a rookie pitching coach. I suspect that this will be a painfully obvious weakness by the All Star break.

Molitor, maybe. Allen, no way. He's been a good coach for a long time.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's only a problem if one stops the other from playing or being promoted. If a guy can play CF, he can play a corner outfield spot with almost no adjustment time. If the guy has the ability to play CF, you keep him there as long as possible because up the middle players are more valuable and flexible to fit your roster needs.

 

I don't buy this. If he's going to be your LF of the future, he should be playing and learning LF. They should, imo, be operating under the assumption Buxton is their CF of the future (like, next year), and be preparing for that day, not for a day you never want to come.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't buy this. If he's going to be your LF of the future, he should be playing and learning LF. They should, imo, be operating under the assumption Buxton is their CF of the future (like, next year), and be preparing for that day, not for a day you never want to come.

What happens if Buxton gets hurt and Rosario is raking in LF but hasn't played center in several months?

 

Why do that? If a guy can play center, he can play right and he can certainly play left because Ricky Nolasco could probably play a competent left field.

 

The Twins aren't unique in this regard. Lots of teams keep guys at up the middle positions for as long as possible because a player can always shift down the defensive spectrum but going up is difficult.

 

It will take Rosario about five minutes to adjust to LF because playing center is like playing both right and left fields.

[iTwins]

I'd say bullpen. However, even that area is tough to address because there's a bunch of college relievers in the minors right now that are not too far away from making the jump to the bigs.

 

It's not a popular opinion, but with all of the prospects on the verge of the show - the team doesn't have a lot of needs at the moment.

 

As a fan base, our biggest need collectively is likely patience. The front office utilized a great deal of patience in rebuilding the team, and have the team on the verge of something better.

 

Of course, if none of the prospects work out, we'll have needs basically everywhere...but I don't want to consider that option until I absolutely have to.

[jay]

Lots of teams keep guys at up the middle positions for as long as possible because a player can always shift down the defensive spectrum but going up is difficult.

Nailed it. You don't move a prospect down the defensive spectrum based on other prospects. You don't even hardly do that based on the MLB team until the guy is pounding on the door.

 

Look at the Cubs and their 18 shortstops. Thoughts from a guy regarded as pretty smart in a front office are here: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/83193448/talented-shortstops-give-chicago-cubs-options

[Mike Sixel]

Okey dokey.....hope you are right about Rosario and how fast he can learn LF, because I expect Buxton up here after about 8-14 games next year at the latest.....

[jay]

I expect Buxton up here after about 8-14 games next year at the latest.....

That might be a first. mike's prospect timeline is further out than Terry Ryan's.

[nytwinsfan]

I think the answer is "we don't know what their biggest need is, because we don't know what they have yet."  That is just the nature of having so many prospects on the cusp. But if I had to say, I'd say corner outfield, catcher, and left-handed pitching (that will be ready anytime soon).

[jokin]

 

Okey dokey.....hope you are right about Rosario and how fast he can learn LF, because I expect Buxton up here after about 8-14 games next year at the latest.....

 

That might be a first. mike's prospect timeline is further out than Terry Ryan's.

 

Geez, you're way too patient... and I know you're talking with tongue firmly implanted into cheek.

Consider... the Dodgers #8-rated prospect, Scott Schebler, who projects only as a LF, and was 23 in 2014.  He played for Chattanooga in 2014 and offensively led all Southern League OFers, besides ranking 2nd overall offensively in the League, with a .921 OPs and a 153 wRC+.  His numbers were primarily bolstered by 28 HRs. 

And Also Consider....  Joe Benson.... yes, THAT Joe Benson was rated the 4th best Southern League OF in those particular stats (.264/.364/.410/.774 ------- 120 wRC+).

Assuming that Buxton returns to 2013-level health and anywhere close to his 2013-type of production- he's up as early as May 1...  but say, moving up to AA, he "falters" to only around "2014 Joe Benson Southern League production", in which case, Buxton should be in the Twins CF no later than the ASG.  (I'm hoping Buck doesn't screw it up for me and get moved up "too soon", I'm in Chattanooga the weekend of May 8 to take in all of that Lookout series).

[Mike Sixel]

I just am not holding out hope he's here by the ASG, at that point, you wait for another year of control before his debut next year. 

[h2oface]

Bullpen. I have been thinking this since the end of 2013. While many touted that their performance was because they were just used too much because of the starters getting shelled early and overuse, I think they were just not very good. I loved all the flaming relief arms picked in the draft will many mourned the choices. With Perkins coming to camp with his chub acquired throughout last year still intact and soft, it will quickly become apparent that Burdi and Reed and others in the pipe are more of an immediate need. I am really surprised that Burdi and Reed were not even invited to camp (and we watched Finnegan in the World Series).

 

I think the other most immediate need is an ace, but the Twins seem to want to keep those in house possibilities in the minors, and we know that they will not go out and get one on the market, and will tout that Hughes can be an ace and was last year. Maybe so. We will see if he can stay at that level soon. Watching the bullpen getting shelled against AAA batters this spring (and today) has not been encouraging. Just signing "innings eater" starters with 4-5 ERAs to long term contracts will certainly mean that the bullpen will need a lot of use.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Nailed it. You don't move a prospect down the defensive spectrum based on other prospects. You don't even hardly do that based on the MLB team until the guy is pounding on the door.

Look at the Cubs and their 18 shortstops. Thoughts from a guy regarded as pretty smart in a front office are here: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/83193448/talented-shortstops-give-chicago-cubs-options

 

And yet somehow there is nearly universal crying from this forum to move Sano before the kid has had more than a cup of tea in AAA.

[HitInAPinch]

 

^{Younger pitching prospects with high ceilings} 

 

You can never have enough pitching.