Performance vs. Potential

[stringer bell]

Danny Santana didn't project to hit .319 with an OPS of .824 in 2014. Aaron Hicks projected to perform much better than a .201 batting average with a .606 OPS. Eduardo Escobar was penciled in by most as a utility player and until the Twins acquired him, Jordan Schafer was a failed top prospect. All four of those guys got chances in 2014 and three performed well above expectations.

 

Are we, as fans, supposed to ignore that performance because other players have better tools? I am influenced by performance on the field much more than an 80 rating from a scout. In my book, Danny Santana earned a starting position for 2015 by his performance in 2014. That doesn't mean he will be the starting shortstop because Escobar also performed well enough to deserve a starting shortstop job.

 

Schafer only played two months for the Twins but he performed well for the team. I don't think he should be handed a job, but on the other hand, he shouldn't be ruled out. He has, after all, earned a chance to start for the Twins. Certainly he shouldn't be given a lot of rope, but he should be given a chance.

 

Escobar, Santana, and Schafer are all candidates for regression. I just don't think it should be assumed it will happen. Sometimes, players defy the odds. The Twins should be ready for a downturn in performance, and have other options in place.

 

It is great to speculate on the potential of the Sanos, Buxtons, Mays, Meyers, and Rosarios and they probably will get their chance sometime this year. I won't assume they will perform well as big leaguers just because they throw hard or run fast. Let the prospects earn their way by performing, not just looking good in batting practice or in the bullpen.

[nytwinsfan]

Actually, the whole idea of regression to the mean is that you should assume regression.  Of course, some prospects do really exceed their perceived expected potential, and Escobar, Santana, and Schafer will hopefully be some of them. But unless he drops his strikeouts dramatically, Santana in particular is not likely to maintain his current production, at least from an Avg. perspective (I could believe that he improves his walk rate though), because his BABIP is a ridiculously unsustainable .405. This article explains how incredibly hard (or really, impossible) that is to maintain, even for someone as fast and line-drive prone as Santana:  http://fantasyalbatross.com/2015/01/15/beware-of-danny-santana-babip-regression/

 

That being said, Santana is a great asset to have, and could turn into a very solid player, especially if he can stick at short defensively, which all reports suggest he has the potential to do.

[kab21]

Being too influenced by what happens on the field is what made Nick Punto a starter before spring training started one year with no backup plan. 

 

You need to expect that all 3 of the guys you mentioned as having success on the field are going to regress significantly next season.  The basis for this is everything that happened on the field before last year.  You can't like results on the field and ignore anything that happened before the most recent season.  Schafer has 1400 MLB PA's as a .620 OPS hitter.  Escobar has a MiLB OPS of .676 and Santana has a MiLB OPS of .702.  It's usually hard for players to match their MiLB numbers in the pros and usually their stats are much lower than their MiLB numbers.

[Paul Pleiss]

I waited all season last year for Danny Santana, well, half a season, for him to regress back to the player we all expected based on his minor league track record. He had a great rookie season, but I don't expect him to replicate it. He defied the odds for half a season, but the gods of regression will have their sacrifice.

 

He will not see the offensive success he had last year, but if he can hit anywhere near his MiLB career slash .273/.317/.391 (.708OPS) then the Twins should be more than happy with his production from SS, assuming he handles the position well defensively. His speed should help him be an asset when he does get on base.

 

Schafer's Twins success is maybe more believable, but still likely an abboration. He's 27, and will turn 28 the day before opening day, so there's some hope that maybe he's just finally figured it out offensively, a late bloomer, but those guys seem to lose their talent as quickly as it came.

 

His slash line for the season (ATL and MIN) .238/.310/.305 seems like a better bet for 2015 than the .285/.345/.362 he put up wih the Twins.

 

Escobar is probaly the one guy who I think is most likely to repeat his 2014 numbers, albeit with less doubles. I expect pitchers to adjust now that they have a better idea of his strengths and weaknesses, but I think he can be a servicable everyday utility player spelling guys all over the infield. And if Santana just goes into a tailspin, he's shown that he can handle SS day after day.

 

Even Kennys Vargas will likely see some regression closer to what we saw in September/October than what we saw in August. He turns 25 this August.

 

All that being said. Lots of potential in these guys. And things could continue to break right for this team. I have no doubt this club will once again score 700+ runs... but how many will they give up! The defense, ugh!

[jay]

He will not see the offensive success he had last year, but if he can hit anywhere near his MiLB career slash .273/.317/.391 (.708OPS) then the Twins should be more than happy with his production from SS, assuming he handles the position well defensively.

The guy you think is mostly likely to repeat his 2014 put up a .721 OPS from SS. Why aren't we and the Twins more than happy with his production?

[DJSim22]

Seth, that is a refreshing post.  Around here usually all that matters is advanced stats.  It is as if the scouts are 100% correct, the metrics are 100% correct, and that the players are robots that will play exactly the same as their minor league metrics suggest. 

 

As baseball coach, I can say I appreciate the metrics and any advatages I can get from them.  But, to use them mainly as the resaons for putting together a roster is out of line imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not starting Santana is an extreme minority view here, scouting/stats/regression be damned. Heck, the majority might even want Escobar to start.

 

I think some of us would just like to see the prospects get a chance to perform at the MLB level in what are known to be rebuilding seasons, as compared to trotting out middling FA options or low-upside placeholders. Like those 49 starts the 2014 Twins invested in pitchers who were gone from the organization by December for zero return value....