Article: What If The Twins Drafted Mark Prior?

[h2oface]

Prior would probably have washed out in the minors while playing for the Red Wings for yet another season to correct his walk ratio and save another year of Twins' control.    

 

I think a world series championship is always worth it. That is the reason the game is played. All speculation that it may have happened, but fun to think about.

Edited March 11, 2015 by h2oface

[ashbury]

 

I dont read the article as "the Twins made the wrong choice." I read it as an interesting thought exercise. .."what if they made a different choice?"

Wrong choice, my friend.

[ken]

 

I've always liked the underdog and am more a journey than destination guy.   Guarantee anything in sports and I probably won't bother watching.   Give me 6 seasons of 1 in 10 chance over 1 season of overwhelming favorites anytime.   Like I said, others may have a different take.   I loved 87 and 91 but I think I hated 1971- 1982 and 1995-2000 more.

The last 4 years have made the 1995-2000 look like glory years.

 

Also, the last 10 years with Mauer have not been much better than the prior 10 years so I think the Twins would have been a lot worse without Mauer. And since Mauer only played 35 games in 2004, you really can't say he was a key member for the playoff run, which then make the total playoffs the same (3) over the two 10 year period.

 

I think drafting Mauer was the right pick, but it is a very interesting thought about what Prior could have brought to the Twins in the early year.

[Pius Jefferson]

You think Prior would have thrown a tantrum and imploded if the same Game Six scenario happened with the Twins? 

[alexlegge]

Thanks for a well-written and thought-provoking article. However, I can't say I agree. As mentioned by other commenters, Prior's entire development would have been different in the Twins system. In my opinion, the best-case scenario is that we would've ended up with a Radke clone. You could make a decent argument in favor of that over Mauer only if Prior stayed healthy as long as Radke, but it only applies to the regular season.

Your argument is based on the postseason, which is a complete roll of the dice. Remember that in the 2002 ALCS, Santana was lit up out of the bullpen while the only memorable Twins start was Joe Mays in Game 1. Mauer has been our best position player on four additional division series teams after Prior’s injury bug, not to mention the 2008 tiebreaker team (would Prior have even topped Nick Blackburn’s sparkling performance in that?). Let’s review the 4 division series:
- 2004: This is probably the only instance where you could make a solid argument that Prior would have helped us overcome the Yankees. We would’ve had a better shot at leaving NYC up 2-0.
- 2006: Santana lost Game 1. Bonser pitched extremely well in Game 2, which we only lost because of Hunter’s misplay. Prior wouldn’t have fared much better under those circumstances. Also, Mauer was incredible this season in a 3-team division race.
- 2009: The team was exhausted from the play-in game and played like crap the whole series. Maybe we would have won the division more easily with Prior, but not without Mauer.
- 2010: Another great season for Mauer. And even in an ideal world, we wouldn’t have had Liriano’s Game 1 start (which was sub-par but gave us a reasonable chance to win).

Bottom line: No question that 2002-2003 would have been different with Prior, but how different? Probably not much, and it’s impossible to speculate beyond that. Ultimately, Cubs fans could make a much much much stronger argument in favor Mauer propelling them to the World Series in 2007-2008.

[Rhubarb_Runner]

It's "Rogers" not "Rodgers"

 

While you're at it, trade Prior to the Cubs for Mauer in 2004 and get the best of both worlds.

[Kyle Eliason]

 

Thanks for a well-written and thought-provoking article. However, I can't say I agree. As mentioned by other commenters, Prior's entire development would have been different in the Twins system.

 

Plenty of legitimate counter arguments, but I do not concur with the above. Prior pitched in the majors midway through his first professional season and required only nine tune-up starts in the high minors before reaching the show. He was major league ready when he was drafted. Minimal development required—which is why he was able to command a then record amount for an amateur draftee.

[70charger]

Speaking as a counter-arguer, I did find the article to be thought-provoking and well-written. I don't really agree with the conclusion, but that's okay. I'd read more articles like it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think by 2006 and probably earlier, you can't simply add Prior to the Twins real-life playoff results and conclude he wouldn't have helped.  The composition of the team would have likely been quite different, for better or worse.

 

Rick Reed and Mark Redman (plus Matt Lawton) could have been affected within two months, not to mention the Joe Mays contract extension, Kenny Rogers in 2003, the Eric Milton trade which netted us Silva and Punto, and certainly the AJ trade which netted us Liriano and Nathan (and Boof).  And those are just the players and moves directly affected by Prior -- more certainly would have been affected indirectly.  For example, maybe without Nathan, we hang on to Guardado or Hawkins a few more years?  If you can look ahead a little further, maybe without Liriano, we aren't so eager to trade Matt Garza (or even Johan Santana) after 2007?

 

Really, 2002-2004 are probably the only years where we can safely make guesses.  And in 2002, swapping Mays or Reed for Prior likely wins us the ALDS in one fewer game, and if it was Reed who was out, perhaps extends the ALCS back to the Metrodome for Game 6...  In 2003, Prior takes the Game 1 assignment from Santana and pushes Lohse out of the playoff rotation, and perhaps delays Santana's injury that October?  Or at least allows him more time to recover.  Similarly, with Prior in 2004, pushing Silva out of the playoff rotation and letting Santana work on full rest could change things quite a bit too.  While SP wasn't always our top weakness those years/series, we certainly could have benefitted with another top level starter!  (Who wouldn't?)

 

I wouldn't, however, posit that Prior would have stayed significantly more healthy with the Twins.  The frequency and severity of his injuries almost certainly would not have been avoided with a few lower pitch count games.

 

Not a knock on Mauer at all, but it certainly would have been interesting to see Prior on the 2001-2004 teams.  Perhaps even more interesting would have been the 2001 signal that the Twins were willing to spend some money to be the best.  Maybe they go over-slot for future draft picks, or pony up for FA Jim Thome or international amateurs, etc.  Maybe they even avoid the contraction mess, hire Molitor to manage instead of Gardy, get their new stadium a couple years earlier, etc.  Lots of implications!

 

Of course, in this bizarro universe, there is almost certainly a 2015 article asking "What if the Twins drafted Mauer instead of Prior?"  Which likely concludes that the 2005-2014 teams would have been better off had they done so.