MN said to have $4 M deal with Wander Javier for July 2

[nytwinsfan]

Kiley McDaniel is reporting that the Twins are said to have a $4 million dollar deal in place for Wander Javier, a 16-yo Dominican shortstop who will be available on July 2. That is just over the Twins' bonus allocation ($3.948 million), so they would need to trade for additional space to avoid penalties. However, with at least five teams unable to spend more than $300 K on any one prospect, extra bonus money (up to a total of around $6 M) ought to be easy to come by.

 

I find it hard to believe the Twins would only sign Javier, as they usually also sign some smaller-name, low-priced prospects, so this leads me to believe they are either going to trade up to nearly $6 million and spend another $1.9 million on other youngsters, or they will go past their bonus (and maximum trade bonus) and face penalties. If the latter is the case, then expect them to go after a couple of additional high-end Domincan prospects, and possibly one of the Cuban pitchers, who could be even more expensive. Either way, it is very exciting to see the Twins going after a high upside prospect!

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/july-2nd-plans-are-coming-into-focus/

 

Here is a video of Wander:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQM2BzjyTNU

 

Here is what Kiley says about him:

 

Javier is the kind of player you typically see near the top of July 2nd bonus lists. He’s a 6’0, lanky shortstop with easy actions and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position. Javier ran a 7.01 in the 60 last month, a 50 run time on the 20-80 scale, but he’s the type of kid who will probably gain a step in the next few years; Royals SS Raul Mondesi is an example of similar prospect who gained a couple steps after he signed. Javier ran a 6.76 for me in October, so 55 speed is clearly in the tank.

 

Javier flashes average raw power that may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops and he flashes some ability to show that tool in games. In the first half of the video, from last month, Javier was just okay offensively, getting off balance and swinging and missing more than expected. In the second half of the video, from October, Javier is more relaxed with better timing. While his mechanics still aren’t perfect, his feel for hitting took over when his hitting actions were more compact. This isn’t to say that Javier is trending down, just pointing out how one bad event could change a scout’s projection if he didn’t have history with the player. This type of variance is common with young players and is fixable.

 

Javier is widely believed to have a deal with the Twins for $4.0 million, which I believe would be the highest July 2nd bonus of all-time for a shortstop. The Twins’ pool is just under $4.0 million, which means trades could push it to nearly $6 million, so they could easily stay under after a Javier signing, with just one minor trade to add more pool space.

[twinsfanstreif]

Wow, this is not like the Twins to go and blow all of their bonus money on one guy, I like it! the last time they did this was when they signed Sano and so far that's looked like a good move

[nytwinsfan]

Kiley wrote more about Javier here, back in late October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-top-2015-july-2nd-prospects/

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting. If true, the front office must really like this kid.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This is fantastic!

[nicksaviking]

Fantastic, if this is true, they almost certainly plan on going way over the bonus pool. 

 

Can we get lucky enough that the Twins take their turn with the loophole and then it's closed forever by the international draft, leveling the playing field for every team and negating the Twin's repurcussions for going over their allotment in 2015?  It doesn't sound like something that normally would work out for the Twins, but maybe, just this one time....

[nytwinsfan]

To the extent they are planning on going over their bonus pools, Mike Berardino reported earlier this weekend that the Twins were also looking at left-handed hitting outfielder Juan Soto and third baseman Christopher Martinez.  Kiley talks about Soto in his article back in October, but I have not found anything more about Martinez. What Kiley said about Soto:
 

 

RF Juan Soto (smooth lefty cut and projectable frame with above average power potential)

 

[gunnarthor]

Kiley wrote more about Javier here, back in late October: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-top-2015-july-2nd-prospects/

I like this quote:

"These swing issues are usually fixable and often work themselves out with maturity; this toolset isn’t easy to find.  Javier is a prospect where how much you’re willing to pay will be determined by how coachable he is in your private workouts, how big his parents are (as a proxy for how much weight/strength he’ll add) and other broad indicators, because the ability is here and he plays the right position, but a lot of work is needed so you need to know how likely he is to make the adjustments."

[markos]

As hard as I try to not get too excited about kids that are 6-8 years away from the big leagues, it is a super-encouraging sign to see the team continue to try to acquire high-end talent despite the financial penalties. Hopefully Javier isn't their only big signing in four months.

[James]

This is great news, let's hope it is happening for sure.  Sounds like a promising prospect.

 

I thought I had read that several that there were quite a few teams that were going to possible outspend their international bonus pools this year (probably on mlbtraderumors.com, but I'm too lazy to look it up).  I believe that I read that most teams think there will be some sort of international draft instituted after 2016 and teams that overspent the bonus pool after this was announced might be penalized beyond the current penalties.  So 2015 might be the last time that teams can really blow it out on international prospect bonuses.  

 

...or this was some crazy dream that I had.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was going to say something snarky that they will sign this kid for 3.948 M (and McDaniel rounded it up to 4), but if they are looking at more, they are planning on acquiring cap space.  I like it.

[Parker Hageman]

That swing plane. Woof.

[Thrylos]

That swing plane. Woof.

 

Have you noticed the salsa dancing hip and front foot action while swinging bit?

[Thrylos]

I'd trade Nolasco for some cap space (or whatever is called.)  He should be worth a few million of that in the open market

[D. Hocking]

I predict in about six years, the team will sign ex-Twin Nishi to be an experienced SS veteran to help this young emerging star to make the majors.  (The Nishi experience now almost has a surreal feel to it where you look back to that time and say - that did not actually happen did it?)

[nytwinsfan]

Jeremy can probably correct me if any of this is wrong, but the Twins pool is $3,948,500. They can trade for up to 50% of that, which would be $5,922,750. Then, you are also allowed to go up to 5% over before anything more than 100% overages kick in (i.e., at that point you can't sign anyone above $500 K the following year). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25149

 

So in theory, the Twins could spend up to $6,218,887.50 (after trades and 5% over), and not face any penalty other than 100% penalty on the $300 K overage. So they could still have more than $2 Million left to spend on others.

 

Slow day at work.

[nicksaviking]

Jeremy can probably correct me if any of this is wrong, but the Twins pool is $3,948,500. They can trade for up to 50% of that, which would be $5,922,750. Then, you are also allowed to go up to 5% over before anything more than 100% overages kick in (i.e., at that point you can't sign anyone above $500 K the following year). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25149

 

So in theory, the Twins could spend up to $6,218,887.50 (after trades and 5% over), and not face any penalty other than 100% penalty on the $300 K overage. So they could still have more than $2 Million left to spend on others.

 

Slow day at work.

 

Or they could just go way over and put a big fat check mark in the happy column of their PR worksheet.

[Parker Hageman]

Have you noticed the salsa dancing hip and front foot action while swinging bit?

 

 

The hip/foot action is OK. The leg lift is fine. The problem is that he drifts out over the front foot once he starts his swing and then the swing plane is down at impact almost every time. It is an old lesson from Williams' book but it still holds true: get an upward plane.

 

http://www.tuckerhead.com/hf_swing.gif

 

Obviously he is a young buck and has plenty of work ahead of him to be a polished hitter but that swing is surprising for the price. 

[nytwinsfan]

Or they could just go way over and put a big fat check mark in the happy column of their PR worksheet.

I'd be fine with that too, especially if they go after one of the Cuban pitchers, but I think you overestimate how much good PR that would engender outside of the people who read and comment on these posts.

[Mike Sixel]

That would be cool......clearly I have called on them to spend more on talent. So, I'd be glad if they did.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd trade Nolasco for some cap space (or whatever is called.)  He should be worth a few million of that in the open market

Funny you should suggest that.  The Marlins actually had to send an international bonus pool slot to the Dodgers WITH Nolasco back in 2013.  (During Nolasco's 2nd best season to date, and with only a few months left on his deal.)

[jokin]

 

 

Here is what Kiley says about him:

 

Javier is the kind of player you typically see near the top of July 2nd bonus lists. He’s a 6’0, lanky shortstop with easy actions and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position. Javier ran a 7.01 in the 60 last month, a 50 run time on the 20-80 scale, but he’s the type of kid who will probably gain a step in the next few years; Royals SS Raul Mondesi is an example of similar prospect who gained a couple steps after he signed. Javier ran a 6.76 for me in October, so 55 speed is clearly in the tank.

 

 

 

Below are the Top 12 times for the 60-yard dash for sophomores in Perfect Game events, as of November 2013.  The   Class of 2016 is the equivalent for Javier. The 7.01 time by Javier seems a bit concerning, but the supposed time of 6.76 would have placed him in 5th place overall for all American and Puerto Ricans who participated in Perfect Game. The average 60 time for all sophomores was 7.56. 

 

My first question is-   How is the (theoretically) 5th best as a 16 year old graded out as only a "55" for speed?  My second question is, since he mentioned him, does anyone know what is Raul Mondesi.  rated for speed at his current age of 18?  (Mondesis is currently rated #29 by BP amd #38 by MLB.com).

 

 

Top Performers - 60-Yard Dash - Class of 2016

 

RK Time Name Event School City State 1 6.62 Vincent Ramos Caribbean Underclass Showcase Colegio Bautista Toa Baja, Levittown PR 2 6.64 Nicholas Rowland Mid Atlantic Underclass Showcase Chestnut Hill Academy Blue Bell PA 3 6.67 Ryan Mejia Sunshine East Showcase Alonso Tampa FL 4 6.72 Matthew Meisner Sunshine Northeast Showcase Salem Salem NH 5 6.78 Christian Moya California Underclass Showcase Bishop Amat Chino Hills CA 6 6.79 Cameron Locklear Atlantic Coast Underclass Showcase Jack Britt Fayetteville NC 7 6.82 Tyrik Jones Southeast Underclass Showcase The Galloway Stone Mountain GA 8 6.83 Corbin Bice Southeast Underclass Showcase Chilton Co. Clanton AL 9 6.83 Aidan Elias Ohio Valley Showcase Sayre Lexington KY 10 6.84 Kace Massner Midwest Underclass Showcase Burlington Community Burlington IA 11 6.85 Isaac Collins Midwest Underclass Showcase Maple Grove Maple Grove MN 11 6.85 Austin Bodrato Sunshine Northeast Showcase St. Joseph Regional Northvale NJ 11 6.85 Ashton King Atlantic Coast Underclass Showcase Christiansburg Christiansburg VA

[nytwinsfan]

Jokin, good question, but I think (could be wrong) Kiley is saying it would be a 50 (7.01) or 55 (6.76) as compared to other prospects/baseball players. In other words, he is not adjusting for age. I get this interpretation because he then goes on to say that he is the kind of prospect who could gain a step or two as he gets older (implying he might then be a 60 or so).

[nytwinsfan]

Jokin, for what it is worth, Kiley puts Raul Mondesi Jr.'s speed tool as a 60 now: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa659237&position=SS

[jokin]

Jokin, good question, but I think (could be wrong) Kiley is saying it would be a 50 (7.01) or 55 (6.76) as compared to other prospects/baseball players. In other words, he is not adjusting for age. I get this interpretation because he then goes on to say that he is the kind of prospect who could gain a step or two as he gets older (implying he might then be a 60 or so).

 

Thanks, NY, that makes some sense.  I'm just thinking if you're going to go against all previous tradition by putting out that kind of outlay for a 16 year old, you're supposedly paying for off-the-chart raw athleticism- IOW, you're looking for something in that upper echelon speed tool, at least somewhere just below Buxton/Hamilton (presumably "65-70"-type speed at SS/CF?).  If the projection is only a "55" down the road, that would be a red flag, while if there's plenty of room to eventually knock that 60 yd. dash number down to below 6.6 that's something else. (I looked up Mondesi, it was reported he ran a 6.6 60... but at Age 15 )     

 

http://dplbaseball.com/down-on-the-farm/dpl-alumni-adalberto-mondesi-named-kcs-7-prospect/

[jokin]

Jokin, for what it is worth, Kiley puts Raul Mondesi Jr.'s speed tool as a 60 now: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa659237&position=SS

 

Thanks.  That puts this in a better perspective.

 

FWIW, the top 25 All-Time Perfect Game times in the 60 range from 6.11-6.32.    Justin Upton is ranked 10th, @ 6.23.    Pirate prospect, top 100 prospect rankings, Austin Meadows is ranked 22nd, @ 6.31.    Upton hit his time at age 17, Meadows at age 18.

[nytwinsfan]

Thanks, NY, that makes some sense.  I'm just thinking if you're going to go against all previous tradition by putting out that kind of outlay for a 16 year old, you're supposedly paying for off-the-chart raw athleticism- IOW, you're looking for something in that upper echelon speed tool, at least somewhere just below Buxton/Hamilton (presumably "65-70"-type speed at SS/CF?).  If the projection is only a "55" down the road, that would be a red flag, while if there's plenty of room to eventually knock that 60 yd. dash number down to below 6.6 that's something else. (I looked up Mondesi, it was reported he ran a 6.6 60... but at Age 15   http://dplbaseball.com/down-on-the-farm/dpl-alumni-adalberto-mondesi-named-kcs-7-prospect/

 

I also think it is pretty rare to project an above-average fielding, above-average speed, above-average arm, above-average hitting (which i took Kiley to be saying), average power SS. So if you look at Addison Russel's tools, he is 55 (above average) across the board, with a 60 on power. So if Wander is 55 across the board, with a 50 for power (with a chance at 55 as Kiley hints -- "may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops") and a chance for a 60 at speed and/or possibly arm or fielding, you are talking about a very valuable prospect. As Kiley said, its a rare package of tools.

 

EDIT: If you look at Kiley's top 200, and tools, this is essentially JP Crawford, with a little less speed (and much greater uncertainty/risk obviously). Kiley ranked him the # 10 prospect in baseball, which is obviously worth an easy 4 $ million. So the tools are those of a really good shortstop and prospect. He's just really young, so there is a ton of risk.

[kab21]

4 months of anticipation.

[Kwak]

The 60-yd dash isn't useful for SS evaluation--it's more like the 1 second dash--how quick is said candidate.

[jokin]

I also think it is pretty rare to project an above-average fielding, above-average speed, above-average arm, above-average hitting (which i took Kiley to be saying), average power SS. So if you look at Addison Russel's tools, he is 55 (above average) across the board, with a 60 on power. So if Wander is 55 across the board, with a 50 for power (with a chance at 55 as Kiley hints -- "may even be a tick better than that depending how his body develops") and a chance for a 60 at speed and/or possibly arm or fielding, you are talking about a very valuable prospect. As Kiley said, its a rare package of tools.

 

EDIT: If you look at Kiley's top 200, and tools, this is essentially JP Crawford, with a little less speed (and much greater uncertainty/risk obviously). Kiley ranked him the # 10 prospect in baseball, which is obviously worth an easy 4 $ million. So the tools are those of a really good shortstop and prospect. He's just really young, so there is a ton of risk.

 

Mouth watering!  You mentioned Addison Russell, the comparable tool set tells me that the Twins could potentially have the option to  make a trade for an Ace.  (I know, I know, definitely not in Ryan's nature to consider this option, and wildly premature at this point, but at least something that might be possible down the road)

 

In 2014, Crawford was playing High A ball at age 19, Mondesi was playing High A ball at age 18.  Considering that they're playing with guys 4-5 years older, their stats are respectable, especially Crawford.