Article: How Many Home Runs Can The Twins Hit?

[Nick Nelson]

Although the Twins scored more runs than all but four American League teams in 2014, they ranked 11th in home runs.

 

That was par for the course. Over the past decade, the highest the Twins have ranked among AL teams in homers is ninth, and they've often been at the very bottom of the pack.

 

There is reason to believe, however, that this year's Twins lineup will produce more long balls than any we've seen in quite some time.Let's take a look at the projected starters for each position.

 

Catcher: Kurt Suzuki - 3 HR in 131 G in 2014

 

Not really a power threat. In his younger years Suzuki could be counted on for double-digit homer totals, but all signs indicate that those days are long gone. Fortunately, he's playing a position where offensive expectations are low, and he'll likely be splitting time with a guy in Josmil Pinto who offers much more deep ball potential.

 

First Base: Joe Mauer - 4 HR in 120 G in 2014

 

He's never been a huge homer threat, but last year was strange even by Mauer's standards. Now that he's been able to go through a normal offseason, I think a healthy Mauer easily flies past his 2014 total, but he has only topped 13 homers once in his career, and last year 10 first basemen surpassed that number in the AL alone. This will pretty clearly be an area of relative weakness, but the rest of the lineup can make up for it.

 

Second Base: Brian Dozier - 23 HR in 156 G in 2014

 

Is Dozier the homer-hitting machine that went deep 18 times in the first half, or the guy that hit only five home runs after the break? Probably somewhere in between, although his total of 18 in 2013 backs up the notion that he can be a consistent 20-HR threat. No AL second baseman other than Dozier hit 20 home runs last year.

 

Third Base: Trevor Plouffe - 14 HR in 136 G in 2014

 

Plouffe emerged as one of the better young power-hitting infielders in the game in 2012, when he launched 24 balls into the seats in just 119 games, but in two seasons since he has hit only 14 homers apiece. Last year that total came along with 40 doubles, and if a few more of those clear the wall this year, he can rank in the upper echelon at the hot corner.

 

Shortstop: Danny Santana - 7 HR in 101 G in 2014

 

His seven homers as a rookie last year came as somewhat of a surprise, considering he'd connected for only 25 in 548 games as a minor-leaguer, but he's always had a good line drive swing and as he matures into his mid-20s he seems to be adding more strength. Seven looks like a good baseline estimate for his first full season, and that'd be just fine; only five AL shortstops had a higher total last year.

 

Left Field: Oswaldo Arcia - 20 HR in 103 G in 2014

 

Here's a guy I'm really excited about. Arcia got off to a bit of a slow start last year but was locked in after the All-Star break, cranking 15 homers in 57 games. He's entering his second full season in the majors, and if he can make some advancements with his plate approach while staying healthy, there's no reason he couldn't hit 35 or 40 bombs.

 

Center Field: Aaron Hicks - 1 HR in 69 G in 2014

 

This one's tough to call, since we don't really know who's going to be the starter and we certainly don't know what to expect from Hicks if he lands the gig as expected. Hicks went deep only once last year, but hit eight homers in 81 games as a rookie in 2013. He certainly has the ability to reach double-digits but for now expectations are understandably scaled back.

 

Right Field: Torii Hunter - 17 HR in 142 G in 2014

 

Hunter has been a model of consistency in numerous facets, and power is one of them. He has hit 14-plus homers every year since 2001, and was still producing plenty of pop last year at age 39, notching 17 dingers to rank fifth among AL right fielders. It would be no shock if he fell short of that total this year considering his age, but I'd expect Hunter to provide average output at worst.

 

Designated Hitter: Kennys Vargas - 9 HR in 53 G in 2014

 

Another wild card. In terms of pure power, Vargas has much as anyone in the organization, and he showed it by putting some balls into orbit at Target Field last summer. In the minors, he hit 59 homers in 381 games. If he can make enough contact to stay in the lineup, he seems like a lock to reach at least the mid-teens, with the potential to approach 30.

 

At a glance, the Twins look like a good bet to have at least average power at most positions, and there are other factors that could push them along even further. Will Pinto become the primary catcher at some point? Will Miguel Sano join the club? Can Hicks get it together and hit 10-plus homers as a regular?

 

All things considered, I think this looks like a lineup that will place more balls in the seats than any in recent years, so snag those Home Run Porch tickets if you're a collector.

 

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[Seth Stohs]

I think the Dozier is kind of the "given" for HR power, if there is one. I definitely think that Arcia and Vargas are the two guys that have the chance to be 30 HR guys, or at least 25 HR guys if they can take a little step forward this year.

 

Hunter will be fine. Like you said, there's no reason to think he'll hit 17 or more in 2015, but I think 12-15 would be reasonable. That decline should be nullified by an increase from Mauer.

 

The bench does have Pinto, but other than him, there really isn't a power-hitter off of the bench. 

 

Finally, it'll be interesting to see if Sano gets an opportunity, and if so, how much.

[Paul Pleiss]

The Twins hit 128 home runs last season. They have not, as a team, hit 200+ homeruns since they did it in back to back seasons in 63/64. The core of this team has a chance to do that. I don't think 2015 is that year, but 2016/2017? Look out. This team should mash taters.

 

I like them for 161, which is a significant improvement from last season, but only 10 more than they hit in 2013.

[Dantes929]

One year the Twins had 115 fewer homers than the Jays but outscored them by 26.  In 2014 the Twins scored 101 runs more than 2013 with 23 fewer homers.    If you look back runs scored in the AL OBP has a closer relationship to the leader in runs scored than does home runs.   In fact the team with the highest OBP had the most runs more often than not and the few times the league leader in home runs had the most runs they also had the best OBP (Yankees twice).     Homers are great but it is not how most runs are scored..   I am excited about guys like Vargas and Arcia because I think they can eventually become like Thome and Morneau which is power guys that also get on base a lot.   I would be thrilled for Plouffe to get 14 homers and 40 doubles again.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think Plouffe gets closer to 20.  Mauer should improve on his number too.  I expect a bit of regression from Dozier.  I suspect the team will pick up a few home runs, as I think Arcia really breaks out.  A full season from Vargas and Pinto should help in that capacity too, though I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Vargas in particular ends up struggling a bit and bouncing back and forth between  MN and Rochester.  I hope that isn't the case.  I think the real improvement in this area comes when Sano arrives (hopefully) later this season. 

[sorney]

Considering Nelson Cruz was the only MLB'er to hit 40 HR's last year, I don't see Arcia jumping up that high.  Love the dudes energy and swing, but if the Twins get 30 out of him, they should be more than happy.

[Captain Nifty]

Sadly I believe Suzuki's 2nd half is more representative of what we can expect in 2015 than his first half. He didn't hit for a lot of power in either half however so I'm on board with 3 homers. I also predict that Pinto stays up all year and hits 8 in limited AB's. 

 

I just can't give up on Mauer and am giving him the benefit of the doubt after a disappointing 2014. I completely buy the lost offseason and post concussion excuses and feel he'll at least mostly return to form in 2015. That being said, he's never been a power hitter and I don't expect that to change. 11 dingers.

 

Dozier just keeps getting better. I'm going to predict 23 jacks for the 2nd straight year but with an improved average and a few more steals.  

 

I predict the evolution of Trevor Plouffe continues in 2015 and he finishes the year with 25 bombs along with further place discipline and defensive improvements making it real hard to promote Sano.

 

Santana showed up with some extra muscle this spring and strikes me as the type of guy who just inexplicably outperforms his minor league track record when he reaches the big leagues. I'm guessing 9 taters.

 

I'm going to arbitrarily put Hunter down for 14 dingers. 

 

I think Hicks will have a decent year finally out from under Gardenhire's dog house and with some mentorship from Hunter, I'll say 11 jacks.  

 

I predict 24 for Arcia with fewer strikeouts, better average and a few more walks. 

 

WAG for Vargas is 22

Edited March 2, 2015 by Captain Nifty

[Willihammer]

32-Arcia

27-Vargas

15-Dozier

13-Plouffe

8-Hunter

7-Pinto

7-Santana

6-Mauer

6-Sano

5-Escobar

4-Suzuki

11-Hicks/Rosario/Milone/etc.

 

141 total.

[youngpadawan]

Before I read the article I thought the Twins were primed to hit alot more homers this season. After looking at the breakdown by position, I don't feel the same. I think a very modest improvement is all that can be expected. The first 5 guys on the list seem to cancel each other out. Arcia is my favorite Twin and I love his potential but expecting more than 5-10 homers from him is pushing it. Vargas has potential but he is a serious candidate to succumb to the sophomore slump. Hunter and the CFer will probably cancel each other out. If we hit 10-20 more, we only jump a couple teams and are around league average. I think that is likely.

[Michael (ClassicMNTwins)]

I have hopes that the new, young Turks (Arcia, Vargas, and later Buxton and Sano) will form a powerful core that will produce in the tradition of the Hrbeks-Gaettis-Brunos & Kirby's of the 80s, or the Killebrew-Allison-Battey & Halls of the 60s. Speaking of the latter, I put this post on Classic Minnesota Twins: Five Homers In One Inning to commemorate the game of June 9, 1966 - the greatest power orgy in club history.

 

 

[ashbury]

Designated Hitter: Kennys Vargas - 9 HR in 53 G in 2014

 

Another wild card. In terms of pure power, Vargas has much as anyone not named Sano in the organization, and he showed it by putting some balls into orbit at Target Field last summer. In the minors, he hit 59 homers in 381 games.

FTFY. 

 

Sano's got 90 HR in 379 games. 

 

Quibble quibble quibble, I know.

[Dave T]

My hope for Arcia is, he learns to take a walk.  Make the pitcher throw a strike.  An increase in HR would be a nice bonus.

 

Vargas is the power hitter I have high hopes for this season.  He's a real student of hitting, and it's fun to watch him get up to speed against major league pitching.  I can't wait to get Sano up here, and have those two guys fight it out over who bats cleanup.

[nater79a]

32-Arcia

27-Vargas

15-Dozier

13-Plouffe

8-Hunter

7-Pinto

7-Santana

6-Mauer

6-Sano

5-Escobar

4-Suzuki

11-Hicks/Rosario/Milone/etc.

 

141 total.

 

I predict Milone hits his 2-run home run off Aroldis Chapman in the top of the 9th as Cincy tries to close down a 1-0 win on June 29th. 

[lightfoot789]

Designated Hitter: Kennys Vargas - 9 HR in 53 G in 2014

Another wild card. In terms of pure power, Vargas has much as anyone not named Sano in the organization, and he showed it by putting some balls into orbit at Target Field last summer. In the minors, he hit 59 homers in 381 games.

 

 

FTFY. 

 

Sano's got 90 HR in 379 games. 

 

Quibble quibble quibble, I know.

 

AB Walker has 66 in 319 games in the minors.    That's an average of 33 HRs per 162 game season.    As we all look into the future.    I know he is not projected to continue this pace due to contact rate, but thus far not bad.    In his only MLB Spring Training game (2014) Walker was 2 for 2 with 1 HR and a Double.    Can you picture that power in the line up with Sano - Vargas - &  Arcia.    I'm not so sure Walker doesn't hit them as far as any of those other 3 either.     I'll stop jumping back to the future................

Edited March 2, 2015 by lightfoot789

[Thrylos]

Depends on the lineup:

 

Pinto - 25

Mauer -10

Dozier 20

Escobar/Santana - 10

Sano 40

Arcia 30

Hicks 10

Hunter 15

Vargas 30

 

maybe good for 190.  Sub Plouffe & Suzuki for Sano & Pinto and you got about 135 Max.

Edited March 2, 2015 by Thrylos

[BrianTrottier]

Arcia is my favorite Twin and I love his potential but expecting more than 5-10 homers from him is pushing it.

 

Care to explain that? How does Arcia not hit at least 20-25?

[youngpadawan]

I would love to explain! I meant 5-10 MORE. one word makes all the difference.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My hope for Arcia is, he learns to take a walk.  Make the pitcher throw a strike.  An increase in HR would be a nice bonus.

A fair point.  Arcia's power is already pretty darn good -- his ISO would have ranked 14th in MLB among qualifiers last season.

 

I don't know if he needs walks -- Carlos Gomez doesn't -- but he could use a better average, and probably fewer K's to help him achieve that.  (As long as it doesn't sap his power...)  His K% would have ranked 4th among qualifiers last year, in the company of Dunn, the bad Upton, the bad Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc.  Not a lot of great hitters in that area.

 

Meanwhile, around his present day walk rates, you've got Gomez among others.

[formerly33]

Good article. I enjoyed reading it. One thing, however, caught my eye:

 

Here's a guy I'm really excited about. Arcia got off to a bit of a slow start last year but was locked in after the All-Star break, cranking 15 homers in 57 games. He's entering his second full season in the majors, and if he can make some advancements with his plate approach while staying healthy, there's no reason he couldn't hit 35 or 40 bombs.

 

I remember when Parmelee, Arcia, and Fryer went back-to-back-to-back off of the White Sox last August. When Arcia smashed his ball out of the stadium, Tom Kelly said, "There are home runs, and then there are bombs. THAT was a bomb." If Arcia can hit 35 or 40 bombs this year, how many home runs will he hit?

 

I'm looking forward to it!

[dxpavelka]

I think the Dozier is kind of the "given" for HR power, if there is one. I definitely think that Arcia and Vargas are the two guys that have the chance to be 30 HR guys, or at least 25 HR guys if they can take a little step forward this year.

 

Hunter will be fine. Like you said, there's no reason to think he'll hit 17 or more in 2015, but I think 12-15 would be reasonable. That decline should be nullified by an increase from Mauer.

 

The bench does have Pinto, but other than him, there really isn't a power-hitter off of the bench. 

 

Finally, it'll be interesting to see if Sano gets an opportunity, and if so, how much

Calling a guy who hit 5 after the break a given might be an indication that we're not exactly setting the bar too high.

[DocBauer]

LOVE this stuff! Can't even begin to tell you how many pieces of paper I've filled up over the years with lineups and projectables. Of course, it never really matters as someone always exceeds, and someone always disappoints. But it sure is fun isn't it?

 

I also agree and project a big rise in power over the next couple of seasons for our Twins. When you look at the potential to muscle up with guys like Sano, Buxton, Varga, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, possibly Walker and Kepler both,and some additional infielders who are better than simply punch and judy hitters, you have to get pumped. But there is also some speed in there, which excites me. And while it hasn't entirely manifested itself, for rather obvious reasons, there is some solid OB potential as well.

 

HR power is awesome, and can be a game, series and season changer. But given the choice of a station to station team with little speed, a lot of K's but legit 200 HR power, OR, a team with a solid OB, some speed, 300 doubles and only 150 HR's, I'm definatly taking the second option.

 

I think Santa's BA drops, but his OB goes up, his SB's go up, and there is a slight uptick in power. 8 HR's, but 10 wouldn't surprise me.

 

Dozier at 22, but more evened out between first and second half of the season. I think, overall, a few days off here and there to catch his breath, and hopefully a more stable spot in the every day lineup, I think this will be Dozier's best and most consistent season.

 

Mauer, who I am addressing in a different thread, will return to form, and hit 12 HR's. Remember you read it here first when I say I could very defineately see 16.

 

The next 3 get tough!

 

No reason Vargas couldn't and shouldn't hit 30 plus. Except, oh yeah, he's a rookie. As few as 15 with some struggles, possible a trip on the Rochester shuttle for a couple weeks somewhere, but 30 potential....this and that...yin and yang...I'm saying he sticks despite some ups and downs. I'm saying he has positive hitters in front of him, and behind him, and oh yeah, a TON of talent and natural ability.  At least 18, but I believe in thekid and we'll cut him some rookie slack and call it 23 HR's.

 

Hunter hits next unless the warranty suddenly runs out. He could slide from last season, and smart money says at least a little regression. But I'm also a believer in baseball karma. I think excitement, energy, a great story, coming home, a nice ball park, what might be the last season in the sun culminating in a solid final season. I think Hunter dings 14 or 15. We'll go with the over here.

 

Arcia is going to drop some jaws this season. He will strike out more than we want, but walk more than we expect, and put together a solid and somewhat surprising slash line. Do we really keep forgetting how young he is and how talented and potential filled? He absolutely will not hit his ceiling this year. And he will still provide some inconsistency that will tease and frustrate. That is why he's hitting mostly in the 5 and 6 spots. But he'll have 30 doubles, better overall slash marks, and 25-30 HR's. Let's split the difference and call it 27.

 

Plouffe absolutely has the ability to crank out 21-23 HR's at 3B,and easily could, though his doubles would see a decline. While that would be very nice, I'm going to go with "not" here. The changes I've seen in his overall game leads me to believe he won't sacrifice upticks in overall contact and hitting approach simply for power. I'm seeing 15 dingers.

 

Suzuki...yeah...probably 3. And you can call me an overly rosy optimist if you wish, but I have a gut feeling about Pinto. I don't believe we are talking the next Gary Carter here, but, I have a feeling his attitude and work ethic are real, as is the improvement we've heard whispers about. I believe he will be the backup catcher. I do believe he will perform well enough to stick, and to garner more playing time as he proves his mettle, with the occasional DH game as well. 7-10 HR's...let's just say 8 to be conservative, and combine it with Suzuki to call it a total of 11.

 

So now we come to the bottom of the order, the CF position, and general "ick". I pray we get a combined .250-.260 ish AVG and OK OB% in the .320-.330 range between Hicks and Schafer, barring some big surprise. Don't want to be a downer, just don't have a lot of faith or enthusiasm at this point. Schafer seems to have little power, and Hicks, thus far, has shown little as well. And from the broken down swings I've seen here at TD, he's never going to with hips that fly open before the ball gets there. We're talking 5-6 HR's here...we'll be optimistic with 6.

 

That's 139 dingers. Always going to have a few more from the other bench guys like Escobar and Nunez, a promotion or two and September. Figure 10 to 15 more for a 150-155 total for the team.

[youngpadawan]

LOVE this stuff! Can't even begin to tell you how many pieces of paper I've filled up over the years with lineups and projectables. Of course, it never really matters as someone always exceeds, and someone always disappoints. But it sure is fun isn't it?

 

I also agree and project a big rise in power over the next couple of seasons for our Twins. When you look at the potential to muscle up with guys like Sano, Buxton, Varga, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, possibly Walker and Kepler both,and some additional infielders who are better than simply punch and judy hitters, you have to get pumped. But there is also some speed in there, which excites me. And while it hasn't entirely manifested itself, for rather obvious reasons, there is some solid OB potential as well.

 

HR power is awesome, and can be a game, series and season changer. But given the choice of a station to station team with little speed, a lot of K's but legit 200 HR power, OR, a team with a solid OB, some speed, 300 doubles and only 150 HR's, I'm definatly taking the second option.

 

I think Santa's BA drops, but his OB goes up, his SB's go up, and there is a slight uptick in power. 8 HR's, but 10 wouldn't surprise me.

 

Dozier at 22, but more evened out between first and second half of the season. I think, overall, a few days off here and there to catch his breath, and hopefully a more stable spot in the every day lineup, I think this will be Dozier's best and most consistent season.

 

Mauer, who I am addressing in a different thread, will return to form, and hit 12 HR's. Remember you read it here first when I say I could very defineately see 16.

 

The next 3 get tough!

 

No reason Vargas couldn't and shouldn't hit 30 plus. Except, oh yeah, he's a rookie. As few as 15 with some struggles, possible a trip on the Rochester shuttle for a couple weeks somewhere, but 30 potential....this and that...yin and yang...I'm saying he sticks despite some ups and downs. I'm saying he has positive hitters in front of him, and behind him, and oh yeah, a TON of talent and natural ability.  At least 18, but I believe in thekid and we'll cut him some rookie slack and call it 23 HR's.

 

Hunter hits next unless the warranty suddenly runs out. He could slide from last season, and smart money says at least a little regression. But I'm also a believer in baseball karma. I think excitement, energy, a great story, coming home, a nice ball park, what might be the last season in the sun culminating in a solid final season. I think Hunter dings 14 or 15. We'll go with the over here.

 

Arcia is going to drop some jaws this season. He will strike out more than we want, but walk more than we expect, and put together a solid and somewhat surprising slash line. Do we really keep forgetting how young he is and how talented and potential filled? He absolutely will not hit his ceiling this year. And he will still provide some inconsistency that will tease and frustrate. That is why he's hitting mostly in the 5 and 6 spots. But he'll have 30 doubles, better overall slash marks, and 25-30 HR's. Let's split the difference and call it 27.

 

Plouffe absolutely has the ability to crank out 21-23 HR's at 3B,and easily could, though his doubles would see a decline. While that would be very nice, I'm going to go with "not" here. The changes I've seen in his overall game leads me to believe he won't sacrifice upticks in overall contact and hitting approach simply for power. I'm seeing 15 dingers.

 

Suzuki...yeah...probably 3. And you can call me an overly rosy optimist if you wish, but I have a gut feeling about Pinto. I don't believe we are talking the next Gary Carter here, but, I have a feeling his attitude and work ethic are real, as is the improvement we've heard whispers about. I believe he will be the backup catcher. I do believe he will perform well enough to stick, and to garner more playing time as he proves his mettle, with the occasional DH game as well. 7-10 HR's...let's just say 8 to be conservative, and combine it with Suzuki to call it a total of 11.

 

So now we come to the bottom of the order, the CF position, and general "ick". I pray we get a combined .250-.260 ish AVG and OK OB% in the .320-.330 range between Hicks and Schafer, barring some big surprise. Don't want to be a downer, just don't have a lot of faith or enthusiasm at this point. Schafer seems to have little power, and Hicks, thus far, has shown little as well. And from the broken down swings I've seen here at TD, he's never going to with hips that fly open before the ball gets there. We're talking 5-6 HR's here...we'll be optimistic with 6.

 

That's 139 dingers. Always going to have a few more from the other bench guys like Escobar and Nunez, a promotion or two and September. Figure 10 to 15 more for a 150-155 total for the team.

 

The 150-155 is just over the league average from 2014 (a down year for most teams). Your projections are fairly optimistic but we could have guys like Sano come up and hit quite a few. If we hit 150 I will be slightly surprised but very happy. I have more hope for the years to follow.

[HitInAPinch]

Question on Sano:  How's his arm?  I've watched a video of his 1st cage session after surgery.  Doesn't tell me much.  The reports from Spring Training say he's hitting bombs during hitting practice.  What's his throwing like?  Has the scar tissue broken yet?

 

BACK TO THE SUBJECT :-)  I am hopeful for several of the young hitters, mostly because of Brunansky.  He seems to have their ears.  I'm sort of hopeful for Plouffe.  He might just be a late bloomer.  And like many,  I think this may be a breakthrough year for Arcia.  Doubling walks from last year, which could increase his doubles, would really round his offense out.  Defense?  You've already read my opinions on that....

[twinsfan34]

Pinto and Sano are the wild cards. If Pinto gets 400+ ABs that's 20-28 HR range. Otherwise, a #2 catcher with limited ABs, say 150, he gets maybe 6-10.

 

Sano, I feel would put up better power numbers than Vargas. Vargas put up 9 in 215 ABs. I think Sano might get the same # of ABs this year. And I'd put him up for 12-16 in that same number of ABs.

 

Suzuki

2014 - 3

2015 - 5

 

Mauer

2014 - 4

2015 - 12

 

Dozier

2014 - 23

2015 - 18

 

Plouffe

2014 - 14

2015 - 16

 

Santana

2014 - 7

2015 - 12

 

Arcia

2014 - 20

2015 - 28

 

Hicks

2014 - 1

2015 - 6

 

Hunter

2014 - 17

2015 - 15

 

Vargas

2014 - 9

2015 - 22

 

That's 124 with whatever the bench (5-15)...for 129-139 range, and then whatever becomes of the Pinto/Sano wildcard.

 

Twins had 128 last year, AL average was 144.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pinto and Sano are the wild cards. If Pinto gets 400+ ABs that's 20-28 HR range. Otherwise, a #2 catcher with limited ABs, say 150, he gets maybe 6-10.

I like him, but for the record, Pinto hasn't hit HR at the low end of that rate (20 in 400 PA) since rookie league.  He might get better, but he's been pretty consistent in the power department in his 5 full pro seasons.  15 seems more likely for him, at this point.

[LeatherAntenna]

Mauer 4 HR in 120 games and nobody is critical of a 6'5 235 lb first baseman that will not swing an uppercut bat? Nobody who cares about home runs would want Mauer around if given a choice. But who would want him anyway at 24 mil for 125-140 singles?

[LeatherAntenna]

Mauer is not serious about home runs except in the one contract year that he needed to be serious. I only hope Molitor puts him in his place, Gardenheier couldn't