Article: Hunter And Garnett: The Marketing Angle

[Kwak]

I challenge any TD member to find 10 posts better than this.

Metrics (even the "old-fashioned ones") are to measure the hitting, catching, throwing, and running, (pitching too!).   How well they measure each of those attributes is open to debate, but some sort of quantification of the "eye test" is required.  Completly dismissing the use of statistics is anal, they have been used for a very long time (e.g. "the old-fashioned ones").

[jimmer]

I challenge any TD member to find 10 posts better than this.

yes, nothing sells a point better than bringing up a mother's basement :-) 

 

What parameters are you going to allow for the challenge?  Do they all have to have nerd insults? ;-)

Edited February 28, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

yes, nothing sells a point better than bringing up a mother's basement :-) 

 

What parameters are you going to allow for the challenge?  Do they all have to have nerd insults? ;-)

First, nominate 10 posts. Then I will select the parameters.

[jimmer]

First, nominate 10 posts. Then I will select the parameters.

Good call. That DOES seem to be the precedent sent.

[USAFChief]

OK, point made. Enough, please.

[dxpavelka]

Metrics (even the "old-fashioned ones") are to measure the hitting, catching, throwing, and running, (pitching too!).   How well they measure each of those attributes is open to debate, but some sort of quantification of the "eye test" is required.  Completly dismissing the use of statistics is anal, they have been used for a very long time (e.g. "the old-fashioned ones").

Nobody's dismissing the use of statistics.  At issue is the attempt of so many to re-invent the wheel-insisting that the new stuff that's been around for 10 years is so much better than the tried and true stuff that's worked for a hundred years.  Don't get me wrong.  I was reading Bill James' stuff 30 years ago-when a lot of these youngsters were still in diapers.  It was, and still is, interesting reading.  But the game isn't played on paper it's played on the field.  If computers could guarantee us winners we wouldn't need to use human players with flaws and intangibles that nobody can measure and all 30 teams would win the World Series every year.  Wouldn't that be grand.

[kab21]

Outside of Clete, those guys got very few at-bats. And they never really comprised our whole outfield --we got similar or better production than Hunter from Willingham the past 3 years. Heck, even Doumit's 2012 was similar to Hunter's recent efforts.

 

I would have liked to have seen an effort to get a better player (even just one who could cover CF) or at least one with more of a (playing) future in MN. Or compliments Arcia in skill set.

 

Willingham isn't here anymore and there really isn't an internal option to replace him.  Nunez started 16 games in the OF/DH.  Colabello got 220 PA's between DH and OF.  Herrmann started 15 games in the OF.  Kubel got 176 PA's between DH and OF.  That's a lot of AB's to guys that were almost certainly going to be bad players. 

 

I think it would have been great to get a really good player with a future but do you have any idea how hard that type of player is to find or acquire.  In addition to that I'm not sure the Twins need to spend the money or trade assets on that type of player with several guys that should be ready to be promoted in the next year or two.  Hunter is cheap (really he is) and he's on a 1 yr contract so he doesn't block anyone long term. 

[jimmer]

I look forward to watching Lorenzo Cain breakout more (reminds me of Hunter's game during his first Twins tour) and I wonder what it would have taken to get Dyson from KC.

[USAFChief]

I look forward to watching Lorenzo Cain breakout more (reminds me of Hunter's game during his first Twins tour) and I wonder what it would have taken to get Dyson from KC.

Huh...that's exactly who Cain reminds me of, too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Willingham isn't here anymore and there really isn't an internal option to replace him. Nunez started 16 games in the OF/DH. Colabello got 220 PA's between DH and OF. Herrmann started 15 games in the OF. Kubel got 176 PA's between DH and OF. That's a lot of AB's to guys that were almost certainly going to be bad players.

 

I think it would have been great to get a really good player with a future but do you have any idea how hard that type of player is to find or acquire. In addition to that I'm not sure the Twins need to spend the money or trade assets on that type of player with several guys that should be ready to be promoted in the next year or two. Hunter is cheap (really he is) and he's on a 1 yr contract so he doesn't block anyone long term.

Willingham mention had 2 points:

 

1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center)

 

2. And having lots of those types has caused problems over the last few years too. With an uncertain situation in CF, it has been especially difficult to have corner guys unable to slide over to help (and in fact probably need the help of a plus CF). And it makes fielding a solid across the board defensive OF, even.just for an inning or two, virtually impossible because we can't roster that many glove caddies at once.

 

Yet what was our #1 offseason priority? Signing exactly this type of player again. Agreed it was not necessarily easy to get a better guy for a similar cost, but evidence suggests we did not try too hard, and we probavly could have found a guy who was a better FIT for our current roster even if he was not a better overall player than Hunter.

[kab21]

I remain unconvinced that the Twins could have easily have gotten a player that was good at anything (defense or offense).  I think that there's a good chance that the Twins could have done worse than Hunter.  The important thing is that Hunter is on a one year contract so he won't block any prospects.  When you are shopping in the one year stopgap category you really can't afford to be choosy. 

 

I expect the Twins to be looking for long term solutions that improve the defense.  That doesn't mean that they should overreact when looking for a one year stopgap and end up with someone that is awful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Like the starting pitching situation, OF defense doesn't hinge on a single decision at a single moment in time. Perhaps there was nothing better than Hunter in November 2014, but the OF defense had been a clear need for at least 2 years by that point.

[USAFChief]

Willingham mention had 2 points:

1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center)

.

 

Someone posted a list of the outfielders with a higher WAR than Hunter in 2014. None of them were Twins.

 

Now I'm not a big fan of WAR, but many are, and using that list, I repeat my statement: the Twins would have been lucky to have had Hunter in 2014.

 

It seems odd for someone to post a list that shows the Twins are adding a player who would have been a better OFer than every Twin in 2014, and claim that list is evidence it's a bad signing.

 

Willingham was part of that list, by the way...below Hunter.

 

So I stand by my original post...the Twins would have been better off with Hunter on the team in 2014.

 

Which proves nothing about 2015, I agree, but neither does 2014 UZR.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Someone posted a list of the outfielders with a higher WAR than Hunter in 2014. None of them were Twins.

 

Now I'm not a big fan of WAR, but many are, and using that list, I repeat my statement: the Twins would have been lucky to have had Hunter in 2014.

 

It seems odd for someone to post a list that shows the Twins are adding a player who would have been a better OFer than every Twin in 2014, and claim that list is evidence it's a bad signing.

 

Willingham was part of that list, by the way...below Hunter.

 

So I stand by my original post...the Twins would have been better off with Hunter on the team in 2014.

 

Which proves nothing about 2015, I agree, but neither does 2014 UZR.

Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR.

 

Heck, a quick check of B-Ref WAR shows that Willingham beat Hunter handily in half the PA, and Arcia edged Hunter too in fewer PA.

 

Adding Hunter to the 2014 Twins would have been at best a lateral move (trading Willingham earlier), and possibly a negative move if it removed opportunities for Arcia, Santana, and Vargas. And for 2015, it is mostly a latetal move, maintaining many of the frustrating characteristics of our outfield the past two years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Really not sure where that list came from, Torii 2014 was bested in fWAR by Santana, Willingham, Arcia, and even Fuld.

 

Even just by wRC+ (offense only), he's well behind Santana, tied with Willingham, and only nominally ahead of Arcia.

 

Best case of Torii on the 2014 Twins, we dump Willingham before the season and save ourselves from 40 games of Kubel etc. taking Willingham's place while hurt, but then again we also quite possibly don't reluctantly claim Fuld.

[jimmer]

Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR.

 

 

List might have just been for qualifying OF.  Santana didn't have enough PAs to do that.  Santana's WAR was 3.2 and his wRC+ was in the 130s.

Edited March 1, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

All 2014 Twins OF (includes Hicks, Kubel, Cola, everyone): 0.8 fWAR per 586 PA

 

2014 Torii: 0.3 fWAR in 586 PA

 

And I didn't bring up WAR here, Chief did

[jimmer]

We will see if he has a bounceback year in performance. I'm optimistic he will. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

We will see if he has a bounceback year in performance. I'm optimistic he will.

I think he might too, proportionally akin to Molitor's age 39 bounceback perhaps (and maybe more defensive than offensive).

[USAFChief]

Chief, it wasn't my list...

Nor mine.