Article: Who's Up First?

[jimmer]

Similar to the potential value of base on balls? It ups the batter's OBP, but is only valuable if somebody else knocks him in.

right, but as long as we remember that a base on balls extends the inning by one batter, adds another a potential run to the basepads, and there isn't much of a chance of the batter/runner getting thrown out on a base on balls:-) 

 

again, the study I provided is just something to CONSIDER if we're going to start pushing our team to start attempting to steal a lot. I'm not sure I buy it but I appreciate the people who puts years into the study to give us an actual study's result as opposed to just saying they have value because we've been told forever they do or cause we think it does. I can't PROVE the study is wrong, nor have I read any studies that make a better argument saying it's wrong, so I'm not going to for sure say it is wrong. I'm going to allow for the possibility that what I was told most of my life and what I believed for some of my life might be wrong. 

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer

[Ben Noble]

Just a question. Has there been a new study that says other-wise?  I haven't seen one.  Has anyone else?

I haven't looked, but would assume a quick google search would come up with plenty, both in agreement and saying otherwise...there are a lot of people out there writing about baseball these days, which is a good thing.

 

But, at least for me, it all comes down to how much trust you put in the source. I trust James and his track record, but not a lot of blind faith in anything published over a quarter century ago; there's a lot to take away from that article (and thank you for the read!) but it's definitely dated and era-specific.

[jimmer]

I haven't looked, but would assume a quick google search would come up with plenty, both in agreement and saying otherwise...there are a lot of people out there writing about baseball these days, which is a good thing.

 

But, at least for me, it all comes down to how much trust you put in the source. I trust James and his track record, but not a lot of blind faith in anything published over a quarter century ago; there's a lot to take away from that article (and thank you for the read!) but it's definitely dated and era-specific.

I'm glad you enjoyed the read,  That was the only point of providing it.  To make one think about preconceived notion in regards to the stolen base attempt. I know most of the time, people are just going to stick with whatever they believe no matter what, and that's certainly their choice, but I would hope an article by a highly regarded person in his field would at least get some to think a bit more about how important they truly are.  That should be a good thing, I would hope.

 

Before today, I thought the As only started moving to the forefront of analytics in the late 90s/early 00s.  I was shown it could likely be other-wise, depending on how far we want to stretch the definition. I appreciated the info.  Learned something new. I like when that happens.

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

I'd like to see a good study on how impactful base-stealing is, one that takes into account more variables and starts with a better correlation.  

 

Comparing total stolen bases to win totals seems like a really clunky and ineffective way to study that.  

[jimmer]

I'd like to see a good study on how impactful base-stealing is, one that takes into account more variables and starts with a better correlation.  

 

Comparing total stolen bases to win totals seems like a really clunky and ineffective way to study that.  

If you read the whole article you would see that there was much more to it than that.

 

But again, I never thought the article would change too many people's minds. I know it doesn't work that way. I will, however, continue to post things to let those interested in considering other points of view by well regarded people, even if ultimately they disagree with them. And I will also continue to respect the efforts of highly regarded people and trust in their methods even if I choose to ultimately disagree with their conclusions based on my expect opinions on studying the game.

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

It's not that my mind is changed or isn't, I'd just like a contemporary study that is a little more nuanced and better tailored to really see the impact of the SB.

 

It seems like an under-mined data point in baseball analysis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd also like to read that study. Obviously, the Rays believe the stolen base is valuable and I'd love to see what data told them that is the case.

[BK432]

I can't get all that excited about the idea of Mauer batting leadoff. I have no gawdy stats to back it up or anything. I do like the idea of taking new and unique approaches to setting up a lineup though. If they tried it, it might be kind of interesting. I just prefer a base stealing threat on first base in the first inning. I'm kind of a get the lead the first time through the order guy. Maybe I have Rickey Henderson with the A's in years past stuck in my head or something. If we bunt Mauer over to second can he score on a medium depth base hit with one out? I suppose maybe but do you want him in that role when Santana could steal second and Dozier hits with no outs and a guy in scoring position with Dozier, Mauer and Hunter all three getting a hack at scoring him? Also, can Mauer score from first on a gapper?

 

Sorry, I know the conversation has moved past this at this point, but I wanted to address this. I think this is a really honest post and probably addresses a lot of what people feel. We totally think of the Rickey Henderson type when we think of leadoff hitters (or, in modern terms, Billy Hamilton if he could actually OBP .300 some day).

 

But, I have come around in the last couple years to wanting Mauer at the top of a Twins lineup. Take a peek at UBR ratings on Fangraphs and you'll see that Mauer is consistently rated as a very good or great baserunner (7th in UBR last year). So, he's not speedy, but is a smart and talented guy who can take the extra base. So yes, I think he's proven he can go 1st to home on a double in the gap. He makes up for some of the lack in speed with his deftness on the basepaths.

 

So, put me on the "bat Mauer first" train. I think it best takes advantage of a couple of his greatest skills: getting on base and baserunning.

[jimmer]

Sorry, I know the conversation has moved past this at this point, but I wanted to address this. I think this is a really honest post and probably addresses a lot of what people feel. We totally think of the Rickey Henderson type when we think of leadoff hitters (or, in modern terms, Billy Hamilton if he could actually OBP .300 some day).

 

But, I have come around in the last couple years to wanting Mauer at the top of a Twins lineup. Take a peek at UBR ratings on Fangraphs and you'll see that Mauer is consistently rated as a very good or great baserunner (7th in UBR last year). So, he's not speedy, but is a smart and talented guy who can take the extra base. So yes, I think he's proven he can go 1st to home on a double in the gap. He makes up for some of the lack in speed with his deftness on the basepaths.

 

So, put me on the "bat Mauer first" train. I think it best takes advantage of a couple of his greatest skills: getting on base and baserunning.

I really like this post.  I'd still rather not have him as a leadoff guy.  I still think based on many things, including the relative inexperience of the members of our lineup that would fill the 2nd and 3rd spot, but it's a compelling argument because you are right, his OBP and smart baserunning are big pluses. Still have to consider how well he normally hits with RISP and how no comes close to how well a normal Mauer creates runs on this team as of yet.

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

Sorry, I know the conversation has moved past this at this point, but I wanted to address this. I think this is a really honest post and probably addresses a lot of what people feel. We totally think of the Rickey Henderson type when we think of leadoff hitters (or, in modern terms, Billy Hamilton if he could actually OBP .300 some day).

 

But, I have come around in the last couple years to wanting Mauer at the top of a Twins lineup. Take a peek at UBR ratings on Fangraphs and you'll see that Mauer is consistently rated as a very good or great baserunner (7th in UBR last year). So, he's not speedy, but is a smart and talented guy who can take the extra base. So yes, I think he's proven he can go 1st to home on a double in the gap. He makes up for some of the lack in speed with his deftness on the basepaths.

 

So, put me on the "bat Mauer first" train. I think it best takes advantage of a couple of his greatest skills: getting on base and baserunning.

I can definitely see your point. It will be interesting to see what Molitor ends up doing with the lineup. It might be one of the most compelling things to keep an eye on as spring training unfolds.

[Curt]

Great discussion.. just a few things...

• "the leadoff hitter only leads off once per game." Rickey Henderson led off an inning 1.82 times per game when he batted first in the lineup. I don't know why that would be different for him vs any leadoff hitter.
• All other things being equal (they are not!), The first position in the batting order will get 144 more PAs than the ninth position, on average.
• Regardless of whether or not the first batter in the lineup actually leads off an inning. He is always up before the best hitters on the team (assuming your best hitters are 2-3-4). A high OBP there improves your chances to score

[laloesch]

Hasn't Mauer said he doesn't like guys strying to steal when he's batting?  I thought I read or heard that somewhere.  Other than that, I always liked Mauer hitting second.  He does hit into a ton of double plays due to his inability to lift the ball to the right side.  Also the bunt seems to have left his game despite the fact that the 3rd baseman plays shortstop for many of his at bats and he's demonstrated exquisite bat control while bunting earlier in his career.  So Mauer will have to get used to guys running in front of him, because I'd be sending guys with Mauer up constantly.  I guess I also think Mauer's struggles last season were indicative of larger issues in his game (loss of bat speed).  That said, he had just fathered Twins, he was coming off a concussion, and his team was lousy.  I couldn't blame him if baseball was 3rd on his priority list last year.  When his kids start getting a case of the 2's, the grind of a 162 game season might not seem so bad after all.  So I guess I'll be optimistic for a bounce back.  

 

"He does hit into a ton of double plays due to his inability to lift the ball to the right side."

 

 

Which is precisely why he shouldn't leadoff or hit two-hole.  He's too slow, has very little power, hits into way to many double plays, hits almost everything to the left side of the diamond and does not produce enough RBI's.  

 

Don't get me wrong, Mauer is a good hitter no doubt, but his approach has flaws and other teams are now exploiting them (infield and outfield shifts).  I wouldn't bat him higher than #5 or #6 in the order, but given what the Twins have to work with right now I get that he should hit #3 until Sano and Buxton arrive and are established.

[stringer bell]

I agree that if someone wants a guy to get 'em over or get 'em in, Mauer is not ideal. He, however, is a career .320 hitter with a better than .400 OBP. I would like to see him drive the ball more and if he does, he should hit third.

[Shane Wahl]

Wow.

 

First off, cheers to Rickey Henderson, who absolutely would have been the best player in baseball in the past 15 years. Also, Wade Boggs. I am not going to share with you his BB/K numbers. Look that up for yourself and be amazed. Those two represent some some pretty elite players who both were elite leadoff hitters when used there and yet had somewhat different numbers. The walks matter most, obviously, but the doubles-power of Boggs made up for the homers-power of Henderson. 

 

I can't understand how steals-caught stolen doesn't ultimately matter more. And I mean aside from the intangible impact on pitchers, catchers, and defense generally that a speedster can have on the bases. Depending on context, it can be almost the same as making a single into a double. It can also remove double play opportunities. On the other hand, it can obviously mean nothing . . . but so can a double or triple if the run doesn't score. 

 

I don't really understand this fully to comment in a better fashion. 

[Shane Wahl]

Ulgh. The dude (Mauer) seems to hit into more double plays simply because you expect him to do more since he is a great batter. The numbers are not that egregious. The OBP necessitates him batting first or second. I don't understand any other claim about batting third or anywhere else. Maybe in a few years if the OBP drops compared to other players, he can bat sixth.

 

This conversation is quickly degenerating into certain claims about Mauer that are just not consistent with reality.

[laloesch]

I agree that if someone wants a guy to get 'em over or get 'em in, Mauer is not ideal. He, however, is a career .320 hitter with a better than .400 OBP. I would like to see him drive the ball more and if he does, he should hit third.

 

I would like to see the Twins move him back to catcher at least part time.  If they have given up on Pinto and Suzuki is our primary option at least have Mauer catch Kurt's days off.  Perhaps this will help him "see pitches" better, which apparently is part of the reason why his batting average has dropped along with the increased strikeouts.  Just a thought.  

 

Mauer will never be a power hitter unfortunately and without increased homerun and RBI totals he's a VERY EXPENSIVE light hitting first baseman.

[jimmer]

 

This conversation is quickly degenerating into certain claims about Mauer that are just not consistent with reality.

Exactly.  And some are easily shown to be wrong and have been shown wrong in this thread. And everyone knows that since he had a horrible year last year for him, that's how he'll be from now on. I hope we never have a manager look at the guy with the best OBP on the team and say let's bat him in the lower half of the lineup.

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer

[laloesch]

Ulgh. The dude (Mauer) seems to hit into more double plays simply because you expect him to do more since he is a great batter. The numbers are not that egregious. The OBP necessitates him batting first or second. I don't understand any other claim about batting third or anywhere else. Maybe in a few years if the OBP drops compared to other players, he can bat sixth.

 

This conversation is quickly degenerating into certain claims about Mauer that are just not consistent with reality.

How so?  .  

 

FACT: Mauer K'd more times last season then at any point in his career.  His OBP, SLG, RBI & HR totals all very close to career lows with the exception of 2011 when he WAS hurt.  

 

Set aside the fact that he's 6'-5" tall, 230 lbs and lanky, he's simply too slow and inflexible to stretch those doubles into triples or singles into doubles.  It makes ZERO sense having him bat lead-off given he lacks any power, is ultra conservative at the plate and hits everything to left field and nothing to right.

 

 

Then you add in the fact that he hits into A TON of DB's (he's led the AL 3 or 4 times now in that category) and shows no signs of slowing down with teams employing the shift against him.  Do you still really want him batting lead-off or 2nd?  

 

Sounds like a bit more than fictitious claims and more likely that SOME Twin fans can't handle the fact that Joe Mauer may not be almighty and all powerful after signing that 20 million dollar a year contract a few years back.

Edited February 25, 2015 by laloesch

[Brock Beauchamp]

Fun fact:

 

Joe Mauer has never led the league in GIDP.

[jimmer]

Fun fact:

 

Joe Mauer has never led the league in GIDP.

He's only had 20 or more GiDP in a season 3 times.  Two of those times he won batting titles and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting, and the third time he led the league in OBP.  Miguel Cabrera has twice as many seasons with 20 or more GiDP than Mauer including one time when he led the league and won MVP.

[dxpavelka]

Sure, but in a perfect situation you'd rather have that guy batting 3-5 when it's more likely that runners are on base when it happens.

On paper that theory is 100% correct.  However, I've learned that the games aren't played on paper.  Just because a guy shows some pop from the leadoff spot doesn't mean he's going to do the same from a 3-5 spot with guys on base.  He's likely to see different pitches.  He may not react as well to a higher pressure situation.  He may even be more likely to face a situational relief pitcher.  It's not always an apples to apples comparison.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He's only had 20 or more GiDP in a season 3 times.  Two of those times he won batting titles and finished 4th and 6th in MVP voting, and the third time he led the league in OBP.  Miguel Cabrera has twice as many seasons with 20 or more GiDP than Mauer including one time when he led the league and won MVP.

When you bat third and are an extreme contact hitter, you hit into a lot of double plays.

 

That's just how baseball works. It's not a fundamental flaw with Joe's game, it's just a result of making a lot of contact versus missing the ball a lot and it's exacerbated by batting with a lot of guys on first (in theory, something the third hitter should be doing a lot).

[laloesch]

Ulgh. The dude (Mauer) seems to hit into more double plays simply because you expect him to do more since he is a great batter. The numbers are not that egregious. The OBP necessitates him batting first or second. I don't understand any other claim about batting third or anywhere else. Maybe in a few years if the OBP drops compared to other players, he can bat sixth.

 

This conversation is quickly degenerating into certain claims about Mauer that are just not consistent with reality.

 

He hits into a ton of double plays because he hits almost everything to short.  It's not because he's a "great batter."  A high OBP isn't the be-all end-all for batting 1st or 2nd in the order.    

Edited February 25, 2015 by laloesch

[Brock Beauchamp]

He hits into a ton of double plays because he hits almost everything to short.  It's not because he's a "great batter" or his OBP.  Just because his OBP is high isn't the be-all end-all.    

He hits into "a ton" (not really but I won't argue this again) of double plays because he's the third hitter and doesn't miss the ball (until recently, anyway).

 

That's it.

[Shane Wahl]

Yep, Brock. While there is some legitimacy in the argument that Mauer hits to left so much that he isn't moving runners from first to third or second to home on singles, this still revolves around the notion that the Twins are then going to have runners on first and second or first and third with nobody out in the first inning if Mauer is batting second. The very setup to the scenario makes me like the scenario enough to not worry about it too much. First innings with Santana (1) and Mauer (2) both on base are going to be great first innings. 

 

I do like the idea of having a base stealer ahead of Mauer, so that is why I like the idea of seeing how Santana does leading off at the beginning of the season. I still want Mauer second and someone who can smack bombs batting third (Dozier vs. lefties, Arcia vs. righties).

[Shane Wahl]

He hits into a ton of double plays because he hits almost everything to short.  It's not because he's a "great batter."  A high OBP isn't the be-all end-all for batting 1st or 2nd in the order.    

 

False. He hit into 12 last year. 7 the year before (with great OPS). 23 the year before (with great OPS). What are you even talking about here? Why does this continue to persist at TD? It's been demonstrated to be false again and again and again.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, thinking about Mauer somewhere means that someone else must be better suited to hit second (or first). It just isn't clear who that would be. With Buxton around, I do think that I would love a lineup of Mauer-Buxton-Sano-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Rosario-Pinto-Hicks at some point in September. 

[tobi0040]

Also, thinking about Mauer somewhere means that someone else must be better suited to hit second (or first). It just isn't clear who that would be. With Buxton around, I do think that I would love a lineup of Mauer-Buxton-Sano-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Rosario-Pinto-Hicks at some point in September. 

 

I would argue that Mauer may be better at one or two than anyone else.  So you have to look at relative to the next best option.....

[Jham]

False. He hit into 12 last year. 7 the year before (with great OPS). 23 the year before (with great OPS). What are you even talking about here? Why does this continue to persist at TD? It's been demonstrated to be false again and again and again.

 

12 is not a ridiculous amount of GIDP's, although it did lead the team.  So perhaps some truth on both sides.  I think the issue some have regarding the GIDP's is the lack of slugging to compensate.  If it is as Brock suggests a meeting of contact and opportunity, you'd expect more RBI's which is a similar meeting of contact and opportunity.  At the same time, Mauer's K rate took another big jump last year which probably held back both the RBI and GIDP's.  Bottom line, striking out and hitting into double plays is not a super great attribute for a player whose typical upside in those situations is a hard hit single or walk.  Look back at the Mauer thread from a month ago which shows his spray chart and decline in SLG% along with his increase in K% and tell me that's not a bit disconcerting.  Don't over think it.  Santana first, then Mauer, Dozier, etc.

 

I do not automatically believe he will go back to his MVP level, although a post-fatherhood bounce back is somewhat likely in my opinion, although it's really more of a theory.  I don't think the Sabrs track a "first child/ short term re-evaluation of priorities" metric.

[jimmer]

'I do not automatically believe he will go back to his MVP level, although a post-fatherhood bounce back is somewhat likely in my opinion, although it's really more of a theory.'

 

I think his issue have more to do with MLBs decision to expand the strike zone, which they will supposedly fix this season and which can really effect someone so in tune with what is and isn't a strike. And then there's the effects of the concussion.  He had a wRC+ in the mid 120s in the 2nd half.  Seems on his way back to normal.

Edited February 25, 2015 by jimmer