Article: Who's Up First?

[nater79a]

Given Buxton's toolset, I'm hoping he forces his way into the 2 or 3 spot, not leadoff.

 

Might take a little while for Buxton's power to come to fruition. So he probably projects better initially as a leadoff guy where you can utilize his speed. But, yeah, definitely looks like a 2-3 hitter down the road.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Might take a little while for Buxton's power to come to fruition. So he probably projects better initially as a leadoff guy where you can utilize his speed. But, yeah, definitely looks like a 2-3 hitter down the road.

Yeah, I'm fine with Buxton starting off in the leadoff spot but I hope he becomes more than that at some point.

[troyhobbs]

I'm fine with either of the 3, definitely lean towards Santana until he proves he doesn't belong at the top, Mauer sees a lot of pitches and is a smart base runner despite not being a base stealer, and Dozier seems to like hitting there.  Hicks has a decent OBP but just watching the guy you get the feel that he belongs at the bottom of the order, let him have some success there before considering to move him up.  Maybe Rosario plays himself into the conversation...?

[Mike Frasier Law]

You guys are fixing something that's not broken.  Santana is the best leadoff hitter we've had since Span was traded.  He has shown the ability to wait on a pitch and hit it hard.  He has outrun the throw to first on many infield grounders.  My regression candidate for 2015 is Dozier, because most pitchers have learned not to throw him a high fast ball.  In his second season, I expect Santana to improve, not regress.

 

Santana walked 4.4% of the time. Kennys Vargas walked 5.1% of the time. Arcia walked 7.6%. Not the leadoff guy I want.

 

I think Santana is a legitimate major leaguer. But his 353 OBP was driven ENTIRELY by his BABIP.

[lightfoot789]

Santana - Great OBP and Speed

Mauer - Takes pitches and hits behind runners

Dozier - Great OBP and Power

Arcia - Big Pop

Hunter - RBI Guy if Arcia fails his AB

Vargas - Big Pop as switch hitter

Plouffe - Great 7 hole hitter (no pressure)

Pinto / Suzuki - Power or Contact

Hicks / Schaffer - Righty Lefty OBP Combo w/Speed

 

Leaves you with more game leadoff possibilities from #9 or #1 hitter as game goes on.  Both spots provide leadoff qualities (OBP & Speed)

[jimmer]

Torii Hunter. the RBI guy. hit .274 with an OPS+ of 93 (meaning below league average) last year with RISP.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[youngpadawan]

I would prefer Mauer to start the year and let Santana prove that he can mantain his impressive rookie year pace in the 7-9 holes. After the first month, revisit the topic and potentially push Santana to 1 Mauer to 2 and Dozier back from 2-3. This would be assuming Mauer doesn't find his man muscles and start putting more balls over the fence.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is there any way to confirm the conventional wisdom that your 9 hitter should be a "second leadoff" hitter? Seems like it would make sense but maybe there's no advantage to it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is there any way to confirm the conventional wisdom that your 9 hitter should be a "second leadoff" hitter? Seems like it would make sense but maybe there's no advantage to it.

I've heard this argument made a few times but I think the hit you take from moving a capable hitter down to the nine slot more than offsets any gain you get from extending the "table setting". Moving a guy from #2-#9 in the lineup costs him 60-80 plate appearances in a season (too lazy to do the math on that but that number is relatively accurate).

[jimmer]

Is there any way to confirm the conventional wisdom that your 9 hitter should be a "second leadoff" hitter? Seems like it would make sense but maybe there's no advantage to it.

Almost all 'conventional wisdom' needs to be looked at under multiple microscopes. IMO, best idea is to have your best OBP guys get as many PAs as possible.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Almost all 'conventional wisdom' needs to be looked at under multiple microscopes. IMO, best idea is to have your best OBP guys get as many PAs as possible.

 

Agree but I'm also too lazy to do the math. On the other hand, do you want your worst OBP guy really batting last, directly ahead of your best OBP? I don't know. I could see a 9-1-2 Santana/Dozier/Mauer sequence this happening this year.

 

Without a microscope it makes sense that the 7 or 8 spot would be where the lowest OBP guys are placed. LaRussa occasionally moved the pitcher to the 8 spot, with the idea that McGwire in the 3 spot might have a better chance of more runners on base when he came up.

[jimmer]

On the other hand, do you want your worst OBP guy really batting last, directly ahead of your best OBP? 

Yes I would unless he was a big time slugger and then he'd still be lower like 7th.  For the most part, my low OBP guy I'd have bat 9th.

[USAFChief]

Torii Hunter. the RBI guy. hit .274 with an OPS+ of 93 (meaning below league average) last year with RISP.

and still had more RBI than any Twin.

[jimmer]

and still had more RBI than any Twin.

Yes and played on a different team.  Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own.

 

Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time.  Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever.  Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B.  Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy.  The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

Against Righties: Santana-Dozier-Mauer-Hunter-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Schaefer

 

Against Lefties: Dozier-Mauer-Hunter-Vargas-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Escobar-Hicks (Blech...I guess)

Edited February 23, 2015 by TheLeviathan

[Willihammer]

and still had more RBI than any Twin.

And more PA's (Dozier excluded).

[GMinTraining]

Yes and played on a different team.  Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own.

 

Most run producers drive in runs regardless to who they play for.     They somehow have a knack for it (ground out; fly out; hit;). 

 

So yes - I would assume personally. 

 

I think most free agents get signed based on past production and an assumption of what they might do for new team. 

 

No one knows for certainty what a free agent will do with new team. 

 

It's based on history and/or belief.     Torii has earned both IMO

 

Back on subject matter - Apologies

[jimmer]

Most run producers drive in runs regardless to who they play for.  They somehow have a knack for it (ground out; fly out; hit;).  So yes - I would assume personally. 

 

I think most free agents get signed based on past production and an assumption of what they might do for new team.  No one knows for certainty what a free agent will do with new team.  It's based on history and/or belief.  Torii has both IMO

His numbers with RISP don't suggest he had a knack for it last year or the year before really. Overall RBI might suggest he did but not how he actually did in those situations.

 

Plouffe did considerably better with RISP than Hunter (OPS+ of 113 as opposed to Hunter's 93), and had less RBI than Hunter.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

Against Righties: Santana-Dozier-Mauer-Hunter-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Schaefer

 

Against Lefties: Dozier-Mauer-Hunter-Vargas-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Escobar-Hicks (Blech...I guess)

You'd platoon Santana? Against righties? 

[stringer bell]

Santana - Great OBP and Speed

Mauer - Takes pitches and hits behind runners

Dozier - Great OBP and Power

Arcia - Big Pop

Hunter - RBI Guy if Arcia fails his AB

Vargas - Big Pop as switch hitter

Plouffe - Great 7 hole hitter (no pressure)

Pinto / Suzuki - Power or Contact

Hicks / Schaffer - Righty Lefty OBP Combo w/Speed

 

Leaves you with more game leadoff possibilities from #9 or #1 hitter as game goes on.  Both spots provide leadoff qualities (OBP & Speed)

I'll dispute both Santana (great OBP) and Mauer (hits behind runners). Santana had a high batting average, but his OBP was barely better than Dozier's, who hit 77 points lower in batting average. A big reason I don't want to see Mauer hit second is that he almost never hits the ball to the right side of the diamond, advancing a runner with an out. Also, so many of his singles are to left, which often don't score runners from second, unless there are two out. First inning scenarios for Mauer not advancing runners when making an out and not scoring runners in scoring position with a hit do not fit.

[jimmer]

I'll dispute both Santana (great OBP) and Mauer (hits behind runners). Santana had a high batting average, but his OBP was barely better than Dozier's, who hit 77 points lower in batting average. A big reason I don't want to see Mauer hit second is that he almost never hits the ball to the right side of the diamond, advancing a runner with an out. Also, so many of his singles are to left, which often don't score runners from second, unless there are two out. First inning scenarios for Mauer not advancing runners when making an out and not scoring runners in scoring position with a hit do not fit.

In regards to the scenario in italics, Mauer can just advance a runner by getting a hit or a walk? Something he's normally very good at (last year, clearly a down year). Do we advocate sacrificing one of the precious 27 outs we get to advance a runner one spot on a regular basis, especially in the 1st inning?

 

Also in that bolded scenario, when batting 2nd only matters the first time through a lineup, how often is the leadoff guy on 2nd base for the #2 hitter to score anyway?

 

And how many times did either scenario happen last year in the first inning, do you think?

 

Then there are the 3-5 other PAs of the game that come up after that first inning.

 

Do we really believe that the Mauer we saw last year is going to be the same guy we see in the next few years? Even if he is, and I doubt that, he'll still has the best OBP on the team.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[Shane Wahl]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

 

Somewhat useful. Best three overall bat 1,2, and 4. 5 and 3, in that order, are next. Power should be found mainly in your 3 and 4 guys, with 5 being more of a doubles type. Not sure how one plugs in Twins players here, other than Mauer batting second. It's just hard to think lineups right now because so many guys haven't really solidified their approaches (Santana, Vargas, Arcia, and Hicks), one is in serious decline (Hunter), one possibly in serious decline (Suzuki), and then there are Mauer, Dozier, and Plouffe.

[troyhobbs]

Yes and played on a different team.  Should we assume he would have had the same amount or more if he had played with us? One of the many reasons I hate the RBI stat when looked at on it's own.

 

Another is for things like the following scenario which happens all the time.  Guy gets on 1B by single, walk, HBP, whatever.  Next guy gets a single to RF and guy on 1B goes to 3B.  Next guy hits a fly ball that is caught for an out but is deep enough to score the guy.  The guy who put the runner in such an advantage scoring position gets zero credit either in the way of run or RBI, but was vital to the guy scoring even more than the guy who made an out to score him and got the RBI.

An RBI is an RBI, it's not about credit.  How many times does a runner advance on a lazy popper that finds a hole and scalding liners get robbed by great defensive plays? If there is a guy on 3rd the number 1 job of the hitter is to make sure that run scores not to try and prop up his BA w/ RISP

[jimmer]

An RBI is an RBI, it's not about credit.  How many times does a runner advance on a lazy popper that finds a hole and scalding liners get robbed by great defensive plays? If there is a guy on 3rd the number 1 job of the hitter is to make sure that run scores not to try and prop up his BA w/ RISP

It's about credit when someone says so and so player is a good run producer because he has X amount of RBI and argument that comes up time and time again.  

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[kellyvance]

A leadoff hitter only gets to bat first one time a game, so it is a stat that is inflated in importance?

 

That is why baseball stats can be so misleading. In the guise of a metric or statistical analysis, the theory misses the point, completely. Like swinging over the top of a Bruce Sutter sinker.

 

The leadoff hitter, if he is the right guy, gets to hit in front of your most productive bats.You need someone who can turn it on if a ball gets in the gap.  That is the thing. That it happens only one time for the first time means nothing to my analysis. For 400 to 600 ABs a year you want your fastest guy and one of the best baserunners at leadoff. OK, so any analysis that looks only at the stat carve out misses a lof of intangibles. Like a hitter knowing the runner on first is going for three on a looper to right---meaning he is hoping to score second base on the throw. But more than that. Mauer is no leadoff hitter. He isnt fast, and is not a crafty baseunner that can put pressure on a defense. Santana is. Dozier kind of is.

 

Leadoff requires speed as a prime requisite. Your fastest guy hits there so long as he is not in a slump. Danny is the guy until someone beats him out. 

Edited February 23, 2015 by kellyvance

[jimmer]

A leadoff hitter only gets to bat first one time a game, so it is a stat that is inflated in importance?

 

That is why baseball stats can be so misleading. In the guise of a metric or statistical analysis, the theory misses the point, completely. Like swinging over the top of a Bruce Sutter sinker.

 

The leadoff hitter, if he is the right guy, gets to hit in front of your most productive bats.You need someone who can turn it on if a ball gets in the gap.  That is the thing. That it happens only one time for the first time means nothing to my analysis. For 400 to 600 ABs a year you want your fastest guy and one of the best baserunners at leadoff. OK, so any analysis that looks only at the stat carve out misses a lof of intangibles. Like a hitter knowing the runner on first is going for three on a looper to right---meaning he is hoping to score second base on the throw. But more than that. Mauer is no leadoff hitter. He isnt fast, and is not a crafty baseunner that can put pressure on a defense. Santana is. Dozier kind of is.

 

Leadoff requires speed as a prime requisite. Your fastest guy hits there so long as he is not in a slump. Danny is the guy until someoe beats him out. 

What if you speediest guy only gets on base at like a .305 OBP or lower clip.  Fastest guy from home to dugout? If he doesn't get on base a lot, it doesn't matter how fast he is.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

You'd platoon Santana? Against righties? 

 

I think when Escobar gets at-bats that is one way it will happen.  Santana's stronger side was left-handed.  I wouldn't do it every game but I'd do something like that.

[HitInAPinch]

I probably flip Dozier and Arcia against righties, but yeah.

Arcia higher in the lineup.  Interesting!

[jimmer]

Since I mentioned Hunter's OPS+ with RISP last year being 93, I thought I'd also point out that our team OPS+ with RISP was 104.

[jimmer]

Our guys batting first last year got on base at a .328 clip and only had 37 doubles and 6 triples.  That's not just the first inning, that's over all 767 PA that happened for our hitters batting in the one spot.  

 

Knowing that, I'm not sure how many scenarios our #2 hitter would have to drive in runner from scoring position in the first inning of a game, but I'm guessing we shouldn't disqualify a batter from the #2 spot based on such a criteria that doesn't happen anywhere enough over the course of a whole season to matter.

Edited February 23, 2015 by jimmer