Twins Daily Top 20 Prospect Chat (Saturday)

[Lazarus]

I don't think any, but if one was to be traded, I would think Rosario.

It's a given that not all 20 will be major leaguers, so are we at a point where we feel the minor league system is sufficiently rebuilt so we can use a few of the assets judiciously to bolster the parent club? I think we're there, but the word "judiciously" should be emphasized. As an example, should we be looking to package Plouffe (once Sano is up) and a prospect for a 2016 leftfielder? Or a catcher?

[Seth Stohs]

Of the Top 20 prospects, who do you see as the most likely to be traded for veteran help over the next 12-18 months? It's been a while since TR has traded any prospects...

 

 

I think the most likely top 10 prospect remains Eddie Rosario, though I'd still be surprised. 11-20, I don't think anyone would surprise me, though I'd hope the return was good. 

[Seth Stohs]

You showed a Chattanooga roster but what batting order would Seth the manager present at home plate?

 

Buxton - CF

Polanco - SS

Rosario - LF

Sano - 3B 

Kepler - RF

Walker - DH

Hicks - 1B 

Turner - C

Michael - 2B

[Seth Stohs]

Which pitching longshot do you see having breakout season? Tim Shibuya; Brett Lee; or Tyler Jones?

 

These three are all so different. Jones throws the hardest, but he is the most inconsistent with his control. Shibuya has terrific control, he just needs to get and stay healthy. He could be a huge surprise to many. But, I think Lee has the best combination of stuff and control, so I think he can have a big season.

[jimmer]

It's a given that not all 20 will be major leaguers, so are we at a point where we feel the minor league system is sufficiently rebuilt so we can use a few of the assets judiciously to bolster the parent club? I think we're there, but the word "judiciously" should be emphasized. As an example, should we be looking to package Plouffe (once Sano is up) and a prospect for a 2016 leftfielder? Or a catcher?

I'm personally not eager to trade Plouffe now that it seems he's put it all together.  I believe I'm in the minority on that issue.  I believe if he can maintain the value he provided this year as an overall player while staying relatively cheap, he has value we won't receive back in a trade of him AND a good prospect.  Is a 3 WAR player (like I believe Plouffe will be around) plus 6 years of cost control talent (the prospect) worth trading for an established LF who we likely have to pay more and may already be declining and not providing much more than 4 (if that) WAR?

 

I'm also not sure trading Rosario for LF would be in our best interests if we believe he can hit well. We can just put him in LF. :-)

[Seth Stohs]

Since we hear so much about the Twins' outfield defense (or the lack thereof), given what you've seen and heard of the young guys, in what order would you rate Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Walker, Harrison and Rosario in terms of outfield defense (based on ability to run down and catch balls -- putting aside arm, although would love to hear about that as well).  I'm excited about the fact that we have six guys that have high potential, and feel like at least one or two is likely to turn into an average or above average major leaguer (arguably Arcia already has).

 

Arm: Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Harrison, Kepler, Walker

Range: Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, Arcia, Harrison

Overall Defense: Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, Arcia, Harrison

 

That said, Harrison is a very, very hard worker, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if his defense has already improved from last year when he was just making the move to the OF.

[Seth Stohs]

It's a given that not all 20 will be major leaguers, so are we at a point where we feel the minor league system is sufficiently rebuilt so we can use a few of the assets judiciously to bolster the parent club? I think we're there, but the word "judiciously" should be emphasized. As an example, should we be looking to package Plouffe (once Sano is up) and a prospect for a 2016 leftfielder? Or a catcher?

 

 

As you said, having 15-20 prospects that you believe have a legitimate chance at making the big leagues is important. You hope that 1 becomes a big start, a second becomes an All Star, maybe two become regulars, and 4-5 become nice role players. If that happens, we're happy.

 

Without getting into specifics, it is definitely stocked well enough that they can be dealing some if they find certain needs. 

[Kwak]

If Harrison is behind Arcia in range and total defense, I hope he finds a position he can play.

[Lazarus]

I'm personally not eager to trade Plouffe now that it seems he's put it all together.  I believe I'm in the minority on that issue.  I believe if he can maintain the value he provided this year as an overall player while staying relatively cheap, he has value we won't receive back in a trade of him AND a good prospect.  Is a 3 WAR player (like I believe Plouffe will be around) plus 6 years of cost control talent (the prospect) worth trading for an established LF who we likely have to pay more and may already be declining and not providing much more than 4 WAR?

 

I'm also not sure trading Rosario for LF would be in our best interests if we believe he can hit well. We can just put him in LF. :-)

My issue with Plouffe is that while he now has value, he's getting close to the age where his skills/production is likely to begin declining. Our history shows that we usually wait too long to achieve good return for a player in this situation - instead we think we can get value once the decline has begun, or let them go as free agents and get zip. Once Sano arrives, Plouffe is most likely a player without a position and rather than force-fit him into another position that isn't his strong-suit, turn him into an asset to acquire a better fit for that position. Or turn him into a top 10 prospect through a trade.

 

The bigger point in all of this is that we have patiently waited for things to get rebuilt so we can return to being competitive. The minor league system should be a two-pronged asset now - supplying future major league players to the parent club, and to be a source of assets to acquire either major league players or top prospects from other organizations to fill gaps. TR has shown some success at this during his first run as GM but hasn't begun using this tool yet in his second stint. If our system is as deep as we all like to believe it is, we should be able to trade a couple of prospects occasionally without cratering the system by trading surplus to fill the gaps.

[GMinTraining]

What is the 1 area (2 word) of improvement each of the following needs to work on this season?

Kepler

Harrison

Walker

Goodrum

Polanco

Sano

Rosario

Buxton

Turner

[nytwinsfan]

Arm: Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, Harrison, Kepler, Walker

Range: Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, Arcia, Harrison

Overall Defense: Hicks, Rosario, Kepler, Walker, Arcia, Harrison

 

That said, Harrison is a very, very hard worker, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if his defense has already improved from last year when he was just making the move to the OF.

 

Thanks a lot Seth. Someone remind me again why we are moving Arcia to left field?

[HitInAPinch]

Seth, I have a question about ranking systems in general.  I'm not criticizing anyone, I've just been curious about this.  How can a player or players [buxton and Sano] still be ranked high when they've missed a large part or all of the previous system?  Aren't rankings based on the progress or decline of a player year to year?  To me its strange to say the Buxton is still the #1 MiLB prospect when he missed time due to injuries and Sano is #whatever, when he missed the entire year. 

[jimmer]

My issue with Plouffe is that while he now has value, he's getting close to the age where his skills/production is likely to begin declining. Our history shows that we usually wait too long to achieve good return for a player in this situation - instead we think we can get value once the decline has begun, or let them go as free agents and get zip. Once Sano arrives, Plouffe is most likely a player without a position and rather than force-fit him into another position that isn't his strong-suit, turn him into an asset to acquire a better fit for that position. Or turn him into a top 10 prospect through a trade.

 

The bigger point in all of this is that we have patiently waited for things to get rebuilt so we can return to being competitive. The minor league system should be a two-pronged asset now - supplying future major league players to the parent club, and to be a source of assets to acquire either major league players or top prospects from other organizations to fill gaps. TR has shown some success at this during his first run as GM but hasn't begun using this tool yet in his second stint. If our system is as deep as we all like to believe it is, we should be able to trade a couple of prospects occasionally without cratering the system by trading surplus to fill the gaps.

I think some forget Plouffe is only 28 and only a year older than Dozier.  He still has some quality play in him if we believe he's turned the corner. Now that Plouffe seems to have a real feel for 3B defense, I want to make sure Sano can play 3B before we get rid of Plouffe and make our bad defense even worse. And, again, I know I'm in the minority and might emphasis defense more than most.

 

Having said that, I'm all for using pieces of a really good farm system to get established quality players.

[jimmer]

Thanks a lot Seth. Someone remind me again why we are moving Arcia to left field?

So we can let the worst defensive RF in the game that turns 40 this season stay in RF? :-)

[jimmer]

Apologies to Seth.  I didn't see that this thread was meant for people to specifically ask him prospect questions to be answered by him.  

[curt1965]

Seth- which of the prospects has the best chance to go north with the Twins. BTW- when can I look forward to the podcast returning?

[Seth Stohs]

If Harrison is behind Arcia in range and total defense, I hope he finds a position he can play.

 

I only saw him last spring, and I have heard that he drastically improved throughout the season. That said, I think Arcia will be OK. 

[Seth Stohs]

What is the 1 area (2 word) of improvement each of the following needs to work on this season?

Kepler

Harrison

Walker

Goodrum

Polanco

Sano

Rosario

Buxton

Turner

 

Kepler - staying healthy, consistent power.

Harrison - defense, power

Walker - plate discipline, OF defense

Goodrum - offense

Polanco - SS defense consistency

Sano - shake off rust, cut down Ks

Rosario - take a few pitches

Buxton - stay healthy, cut down Ks

Turner - Just continue to improve all-around. 

[Seth Stohs]

Thanks a lot Seth. Someone remind me again why we are moving Arcia to left field?

 

The reason they keep giving is that he had such a problem with the wall in right and the overhang. I don't know about that. I think he can be an adequate outfielder in LF or RF. I think RF is better for him long term.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, I have a question about ranking systems in general.  I'm not criticizing anyone, I've just been curious about this.  How can a player or players [buxton and Sano] still be ranked high when they've missed a large part or all of the previous system?  Aren't rankings based on the progress or decline of a player year to year?  To me its strange to say the Buxton is still the #1 MiLB prospect when he missed time due to injuries and Sano is #whatever, when he missed the entire year. 

 

I thought Jonathan Mayo answered it well on MLB Network's rankings. Buxton's tools are still the best in baseball, and it's not particularly close. Even though he missed most of the season, that doesn't change, and he's still just 20. 

 

Sano's power tool is huge (that's uncomfortable). That can't be taught, and it isn't gone. 

 

Rankings are not based on progress from year to year, although that is also a part of it as the player gets older. Each level they move up is a part of the progression. But it still comes down to tools and potential.

[Seth Stohs]

Apologies to Seth.  I didn't see that this thread was meant for people to specifically ask him prospect questions to be answered by him.  

 

No worries. It's a forum thread. Anything can be thrown out there to discuss. I'm just hear to try to answer any questions people might have. People don't need to agree with me, and can voice their own thoughts as well. 

[Seth Stohs]

Seth- which of the prospects has the best chance to go north with the Twins. BTW- when can I look forward to the podcast returning?

 

May has a pretty good chance. Meyer has a pretty decent chance. Rosario has an outside shot. 

[GMinTraining]

Which skill rankings (tools) do you support the most - MLB.com or Fangraph

[GMinTraining]

Will the Twins be willing to promote young outfielders (Kepler; Walker; Harrison) to AAA if they have great first halves? And if so who gets released at AAA level?

[Seth Stohs]

Which skill rankings (tools) do you support the most - MLB.com or Fangraph

 

This may sound arrogant or whatever. I read all prospect rankings and consider that information. But those rankings don't really affect my rankings at all. I don't think their rankings influence mine at all. 

[Seth Stohs]

Will the Twins be willing to promote young outfielders (Kepler; Walker; Harrison) to AAA if they have great first halves? And if so who gets released at AAA level?

 

All three could start in Ft. Myers, so I'd be very surprised if any of them get to Rochester. That said, if they're dominating the Southern League for 2-3 months, they could move up.

[GMinTraining]

is there a need to move Kepler and Polanco quickly since they occupy 40 man roster spots? Next year will call for additional young prospects to be protected. They can't afford to have a 40 man roster filled with potential prospect not yet at AAA or MLB level can they?

[ExpectMorePayLess]

What catchers start where at minor league level?

[jimmer]

Which skill rankings (tools) do you support the most - MLB.com or Fangraph

Overall, it seems that MLB.com puts more emphasis on players closer to the majors than Fangraphs does.  Kiley and his team at Fangraphs just look at the overall tools and don't seem to give extra credit to those closer to the majors. So it really depends on what's more important to you.  I prefer Fangraphs myself.

[Seth Stohs]

is there a need to move Kepler and Polanco quickly since they occupy 40 man roster spots? Next year will call for additional young prospects to be protected. They can't afford to have a 40 man roster filled with potential prospect not yet at AAA or MLB level can they?

 

There's no rush. Kepler and Polanco both get fourth options, and 2015 will only be their 2nd. No rush at all. They wouldn't be out of options until 2018. 

 

Of course, as you mentioned, other players will need to be protected next year and they'll have to show that they should remain.

 

Can't have all prospects on the 40 man, but obviously the hope is that adding them at the lower levels they won't stay in the low levels.