Article: 10 Burning Questions For Spring Training

[Nick Nelson]

After another long and frigid winter, spring training is almost here. We are only four days from the reporting date for pitchers and catchers in Ft. Myers, and from that point it will be a six-week countdown to the start of regular-season baseball.

 

Like last year, Twins Daily will be on location covering the action in Twins camp, but before all of that gets underway, let's preview some of the storylines that figure to be most compelling to follow as Paul Molitor and his newly appointed staff work to solidify a roster and forge an identity.1. What's up with the catching depth?

 

Kurt Suzuki is locked in as the starting backstop, but it's less clear how things will play out behind him. It appears that the plan is for Josmil Pinto will back him up and start once or twice a week, but the Twins are hardly enamored with his defense and have usually preferred to have a catch-and-throw specialist on the roster. If Suzuki or Pinto gets hurt, who is next in line? Chris Herrmann is on the 40-man roster but isn't a strong option offensively or defensively. Could someone like Stuart Turner emerge?

 

2. Who gets the fifth starter spot?

 

This will be one of the most prominent storylines, and it's one we've already been covering extensively here. Make sure to check out Seth's writeups on various candidates for the job, including Trevor May, Tommy Milone, Tim Stauffer, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey.

 

3. How will the bullpen shake out?

 

We know Glen Perkins will be there. We basically know Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Caleb Thielbar and Tim Stauffer will be there. That leaves one or two remaining spots, with a lengthy list of contenders set to make their cases. Hurlers like Michael Tonkin, Stephen Pryor, Ryan Pressly, A.J. Achter and Lester Oliveros will all be in the mix, not to mention the guys that lose out on the fifth starter competition mentioned above.

 

4. Who plays DH if not Kennys Vargas?

 

Vargas had an exceptional rookie season, but the Twins have been insistent that nothing will be handed to him this spring. That makes sense, since he had played fewer than 100 games above Single-A prior to his promotion and took a downturn late in the season as big-league pitchers made adjustments. If Vargas doesn't appear up to the task in camp, who will the Twins turn to? Could Pinto be bumped into regular duty? Will Molitor rotate different players through the position? There's no obvious answer.

 

5. Will Danny Santana get a chance to stick at shortstop?

 

We know that the Twins would like to give Santana an extended shot at holding down this job, but we also know that they liked what he did last year in center field, a position that remains in limbo. If Aaron Hicks fails to impress, will the club search for another answer so they can stick to their plan of bringing Santana along at short, or will they slide the 24-year-old to the outfield and fall back on Eduardo Escobar, hoping to replicate last year's results? I'm guessing the latter, though I hope that isn't the case; we need to see what Santana can do at shortstop. Where he plays in exhibition games should give us a good idea of the team's mindset.

 

6. How rusty are Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton?

 

Sano hasn't played competitively for an entire year and will be learning to man the infield with a surgically reconstructed elbow. Buxton's 2014 campaign was full of fits and starts, and every time he came back from a long layoff, the rust was evident. The way these two start out should set the tone for their seasons. If they pick up quickly, either one could be in line for a first-half promotion to the majors. If not, September or 2016 would seem more likely.

 

7. Will Joe Mauer flash some power?

 

You can't put too much stock into the way players -- particularly established veterans -- perform in spring exhibitions, but Mauer's bat was noticeably quiet in Grapefruit League play last year. While he was patient as usual, tying for the team lead with eight walks, Mauer managed just one extra-base hit (a double) in 48 at-bats, posting a .292 slugging percentage. That preceded a season in which he hit just four homers and slugged .371, both the worst marks of his career outside of an injury-ruined 2011 campaign. If Mauer comes out stinging the ball next month, we'll take it as a very promising sign.

 

8. What will we learn about Molitor?

 

We likely won't be able to draw any meaningful conclusions about his in-game management, but Molitor's ideas about roster construction should tell us a few things about his general point of view. For instance, will he lean toward a seven-man bullpen at the expense of depth on the bench, as Ron Gardenhire often did? How highly does he value intangible qualities compared to demonstrable skills and production? Might he be more willing to take a chance on younger players given his heightened familiarity with many of these prospects through his work as a minor-league instructor?

 

9. What happens if Ricky Nolasco is a mess?

 

Nolasco wasn't very impressive last spring, posting a 5.50 ERA that was highest of any rotation candidate other than Vance Worley. No one made a big deal out of it at the time, but after a disastrous 2014 season, Twins execs have emphasized repeatedly over the winter that nothing will be guaranteed for Nolasco this year despite his contract. It will be very interesting to see what happens if the right-hander comes out of the gates with a few ugly outings.

 

10. Which prospect will unexpectedly shine?

 

A year ago it was Danny Santana, who batted .391 with five extra-base hits in 10 games. That wasn't enough to earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster, but the eye-opening production likely helped facilitate an early May call-up that led to an amazing rookie season. Who will be this year's Santana?

 

Feel free to serve up your guesses on the answers to any of these questions, as well as any topics on your mind with camp approaching, in the comments section below.

 

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[nater79a]

My two picks for unexpected contributions this season are Eddie Rosario and Jason Wheeler. The outfield could be a mess this year, especially defensively. It might be injures or subpar play from the current group, but either way, Rosario is the prescription. Wheeler is on the 40-man roster already so if the Twins need a lefty starter at some point during the year, he'll be the guy they call. 

[Shane Wahl]

Damn, that's a pretty good selection. I assume you maybe had 15-20 contenders for "burning questions" but I think these ten are pretty good.

 

1. Given that I think Eduardo Nunez's roster spot is pretty much a waste, having Herrmann on the roster wouldn't be the end of the world. I do not like what might come of Suzuki this year, but I also think that Pinto and Herrmann are adequate defenders. Turner and Garver could make strides, but I don't think Turner arrives before September, barring some injuries.

 

2. Let's hope for May. No offense to Milone, but I do think he has to prove more, actually, at this point.

 

3. I like Tonkin and Oliveros there, but then one wonders about who is the LR, and what has become of May-Meyer-Milone. I don't understand keeping Duensing and signing Stauffer. Borderline nonsense.

 

4. Vargas, with plenty of Pinto time. Hunter and Arcia as well.

 

5. Yes, though I still don't get how they didn't think about Santana as a LF option. I like the idea of Santana as the starting SS but also another OF backup (to get Escobar in, and to keep up with a possibly good defensive OF some of the time pre-Buxton--what I mean is that late in some games it would have been nice to roll out with Escobar at SS, Santana in LF, Hicks in CF, and Schafer in RF).

 

6. I just don't want them to get injured again. I am fine with substantial AA/AAA time for both of them this year. Sano should get his chance by August 1st at the latest, and Buxton by September 1st.

 

7. Yes, but mostly doubles power. I am fine with that. I would not be too surprised to see 40 doubles and seven homers from him this year. This could mean a .450 SLG, which would be key.

 

8. I think you are on to something with your phrasing of these three questions. He might push a 6-man bullpen (PLEASE!), and "intangibles" are grossly overrated much of the time. And he will be more patient than that "manager" with the younger players. 

 

9. I doubt that he will be, but if he is, then they will be in an interesting spot. If the Twins have May or Meyer in the bullpen at the time, they can just swap and then see what Nolasco can get together for himself. Or they can see what he might bring back in a trade. This is why it was not wise to sign him to four years. Three years and more per year would have been much better. 

 

10. It doesn't really lineup well for unexpected production. That is, Sano, Meyer, and May doing well wouldn't surprise us, really. I will throw out three names that could come to the forefront if the Twins are faced with significant injuries: Danny Ortiz, James Beresford, and Taylor Rogers. It would not shock me if Ortiz hit for doubles power in the majors right now. I doubt that he has a long-term majors career given the walking problem, but that isn't the question at hand. Any prospect can do well for a few months in the majors. Beresford would arrive if there were injuries to Escobar or Santana or Dozier. I can see him as a legitimate .300 hitter, though. He's a sort of light-Revere which is not like light beer but like ultra light beer . . . except it is in the middle infield so it is more like light beer again. Beresford could produce like Escobar. Finally, Taylor Rogers might be better than Milone. And I can guarantee you that he would be better than Duensing and Thielbar *right now* in that role out of the bullpen. And this comes from someone who had many doubts about Rogers, even after 2013.

[sploorp]

There are a lot of questions, but for me the number one thing is Hicks.  Can he get it together enough to stay in CF?  A productive Hicks would help solve a number of the teams problems, not just offensively, but in the field and on the mound too.  It would also mean Santana stays at short.

 

I wonder how much he would have to improve to stay at the position?  I don't mean what he should do, but what would be the minimum he would have do to get a passing grade and stay with the team.

[Shane Wahl]

My two picks for unexpected contributions this season are Eddie Rosario and Jason Wheeler. The outfield could be a mess this year, especially defensively. It might be injures or subpar play from the current group, but either way, Rosario is the prescription. Wheeler is on the 40-man roster already so if the Twins need a lefty starter at some point during the year, he'll be the guy they call. 

 

A: I forgot about Rosario . . . he could be regarded now as in that Santana-Vargas category as a 10-20 prospect. Thus, he would emerge as that unexpected contributor. I think he will do so, actually. Being on the 40-man roster now will keep him out of certain trouble . . . cough cough. 

 

B: Wheeler is interesting, to be sure. I don't think he should be favored over Rogers, though. I understand the 40-man angle. 

[highlander]

I predict the starting CF will be ....Aaron Hicks!!! or Aaron Hicks %#$&@#$ the third time is the charm or three strikes and your out. I'm thinking charm. Fifth starter Trevor May. #2 catcher Garver or Stuart. Kennys Vargas will beat out Pinto for DH but Josmil will be on the big club. Gentleman Joe will hit .312 with 8 dingers, 41 doubles, 70 runs and 90 Ribeye's. Unfortunately Ricky lost THAT number, but it opens the door for J O Berrios as a early call up. And Saint Paul will fool everybody and steal at least 4 other teams signs, leading to a Twins surprising start and contention long into the season.

 

BOOK IT

[Shane Wahl]

I would predict 100+ runs for Joe Mauer because I would have him batting 2nd, and I believe in the likes of Dozier, Arcia, Vargas, Hunter, and even Plouffe to drive him in (Sano comes later). 

 

I don't understand any lineup that has Dozier batting in front of Mauer unless something happens to Santana. What I mean is: just because Santana became the leadoff hitter doesn't mean things just move the hell on down! Mauer is the prototypical 2-hitter (minus some speed). Dozier, actually, fits in nicely as that 3-hitter against lefties. Power is key in the 3-spot. Dozier vs. lefties (pre-Sano) and Arcia vs. righties. That is simple. Obviously it doesn't matter if it's doubles or homers power, though the long ball is helpful in the first inning. 

[jokin]

My two picks for unexpected contributions this season are Eddie Rosario and Jason Wheeler. The outfield could be a mess this year, especially defensively. It might be injures or subpar play from the current group, but either way, Rosario is the prescription. Wheeler is on the 40-man roster already so if the Twins need a lefty starter at some point during the year, he'll be the guy they call. 

 

Yeah, I'm all over the Rosario-seizing-the-opportunity scenario.  I have little hope, and I hope Molitor has little patience, in what promises to be a train wreck in the OF.  Rosario's strong fall AFL performance could be the jumping-off point for a great career leap forward in 2015.  Rosario has historically been a fast starter in his minor league career.  His lifetime MiLB split in April is .337/.406/..508/.914.  Rosario has the chance to leave a strong impression in ST- couple that with a break-out start in Chattanooga and the strong likelihood of moribund performance in CF, or even at one of the corners- and Rosario could punch his MLB ticket like Santana did last year.

[jokin]

I would predict 100+ runs for Joe Mauer because I would have him batting 2nd, and I believe in the likes of Dozier, Arcia, Vargas, Hunter, and even Plouffe to drive him in (Sano comes later). 

 

I don't understand any lineup that has Dozier batting in front of Mauer unless something happens to Santana. What I mean is: just because Santana became the leadoff hitter doesn't mean things just move the hell on down! Mauer is the prototypical 2-hitter (minus some speed). Dozier, actually, fits in nicely as that 3-hitter against lefties. Power is key in the 3-spot. Dozier vs. lefties (pre-Sano) and Arcia vs. righties. That is simple. Obviously it doesn't matter if it's doubles or homers power, though the long ball is helpful in the first inning. 

 

Time to disabuse ourselves of the notion that the past culture will carry over too much. I have a feeling that the days of the default Gardy batting order "strategies" are a thing of the past.  I expect data-based decision-making regarding the lineup from this day forward.

[TheLeviathan]

I think how the outfield shakes out is one of the biggest stories of the next month.  That and the rotation are 1A and 1B for me.

[Dr. Evil]

This reminds me of the contest the Des Moines Bucaneers junior A hockey team did when I lived down there for a few years. In the summer when they were having their tryouts, the doors were open for practices and they even played a few inner-squad scrimmages, open to the public. At the gate they gave out a form for fans to fill in with their predictions for the final roster. The fan that got the most correct won some type of prize(I don't remember what it was though).

 

It would be fun to do something like that in this forum with the winner getting some sort of Kings Crown or Trophy next to his name that stays there all year until next year's winner is crowned.

 

Having said that, I sure wish I could be at spring training to see things play out first hand.

[Seth Stohs]

I think how the outfield shakes out is one of the biggest stories of the next month.  That and the rotation are 1A and 1B for me.

 

We know that Arcia will be in LF and Hunter will be in RF, so it really comes down to who will be in CF, and that is subject to change throughout the season. 

[TheLeviathan]

We know that Arcia will be in LF and Hunter will be in RF, so it really comes down to who will be in CF, and that is subject to change throughout the season. 

 

I know that's what we've been told will be the case, but I'm wondering if that changes at all as things play out.  It could just be my passionate belief that we have a mess out there talking too.

[HitInAPinch]

My two picks for unexpected contributions this season are Eddie Rosario and Jason Wheeler..... Wheeler is on the 40-man roster already so if the Twins need a lefty starter at some point during the year, he'll be the guy they call. 

I admit it:  I had to lookup Jason Wheeler.  Hmm, 6'6" 255lbs. 

What Jason Wheeler wants, Jason Wheeler gets.  LOL

[stringer bell]

I dislike the notion of Chris Herrmann making the major league roster, but I do think that getting Santana time in a position other than center and shortstop is a fine idea, especially since since Escobar played so well at short last year. Of course, putting Santana in the outfield makes Nunez the only infield reserve. Interesting fact, Nunez is listed as an outfielder on the Twins roster (quasi-platoon w/ Arcia?).

 

The back of the rotation and the front of the bullpen are big issues to me, as well as the starter in center field.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I wonder how much he would have to improve to stay at the position?  I don't mean what he should do, but what would be the minimum he would have do to get a passing grade and stay with the team.

I think all he has to do is hit.  With his defense, a .250 average keeps him in the lineup.

[troyhobbs]

I've seen enough of Chris Hermann. Santana is ok in CF but not great, hope they keep him at SS.

[bird]

Number one for me is the rotation, and not just the 5th starter. Will we field a rotation that's at least MLB average in 2015, and will we see evidence of much better than that for 2016 and beyond?

 

Number two: will at least half of the most promising youngsters show signs of becoming impact players and mainstays? I'll be watching Arcia, Vargas, Hicks, Pinto, Santana, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, May, Meyer, Gibson, Berrios, Tonkin, Graham, Reed and Burdi in particular. Will ten or more of them show further signs that they will become above-average major leaguers?

 

 

My surprise candidates are Olivaros and Vargas.

Edited February 18, 2015 by birdwatcher

[Kwak]

I think the biggest story line is how much control Molitor has in roster decisions and playing time allocations.  If the 2015 Twins soon resemble previous years Molitor is simply Gardenhire II, and the Front Office is really running everything.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I agree with Kwak. #8 Molitor as manager is the biggest question mark and really the subject with the biggest long-term impact on the team heading into spring training.

[ND-Fan]

I thinking that the Twins will be trading a starter this spring to somebody and maybe two starters if Mays and Myer look like they are going to be ready. My guess trade candidates are Milone, Pelfry, and Maybe Nolasco if right offer comes along. Especially if Mays and Myer live up to expectations this year.

[Nick Nelson]

Number one for me is the rotation, and not just the 5th starter. Will we field a rotation that's at least MLB average in 2015, and will we see evidence of much better than that for 2016 and beyond?

 

Number two: will at least half of the most promising youngsters show signs of becoming impact players and mainstays? I'll be watching Arcia, Vargas, Hicks, Pinto, Santana, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Polanco, Kepler, May, Meyer, Gibson, Berrios, Tonkin, Graham, Reed and Burdi in particular. Will ten or more of them show further signs that they will become above-average major leaguers?

These are certainly two of the biggest questions surrounding the team in general this season, but I'm not sure spring training will do much to clarify either. 

[jimmer]

For me, the number one issue is defense and how we didn't address the issue in a positive way.

[nater79a]

A: I forgot about Rosario . . . he could be regarded now as in that Santana-Vargas category as a 10-20 prospect. Thus, he would emerge as that unexpected contributor. I think he will do so, actually. Being on the 40-man roster now will keep him out of certain trouble . . . cough cough. 

 

B: Wheeler is interesting, to be sure. I don't think he should be favored over Rogers, though. I understand the 40-man angle. 

 

Was thinking Wheeler more in a Kris Johnson role from '14. A guy you could bring up and down from AAA when you need a lefty (and you KNOW we'll need 8-10 starters over the course of the year). It helps that he's on the roster.

 

Agree that Rogers has more of an upside, but I'd rather see him come up and be a mainstay in the rotation instead of being a yo-yo between minors/majors. Rogers doesn't need to be protected on the 40-man until this Fall.

[nater79a]

I admit it:  I had to lookup Jason Wheeler.  Hmm, 6'6" 255lbs. 

What Jason Wheeler wants, Jason Wheeler gets.  LOL

 

Yeah ,Wheeler is a big kid. Gets downgraded some because he only sits in the 89-92 range with his fastball. But he's very smart and knows how to pitch. Hard to argue with the numbers as he's moved up the chain.

[Platoon]

I dislike the notion of Chris Herrmann making the major league roster, but I do think that getting Santana time in a position other than center and shortstop is a fine idea, especially since since Escobar played so well at short last year. Of course, putting Santana in the outfield makes Nunez the only infield reserve. Interesting fact, Nunez is listed as an outfielder on the Twins roster (quasi-platoon w/ Arcia?).The back of the rotation and the front of the bullpen are big issues to me, as well as the starter in center field.

Why oh why is Nunez stil on this roster??

[DocBauer]

Great and fun topic! And perfect time to bring it up.

 

1) Catching depth: for his sake, and the Twins, it should be Pinto. If reports are to be believed, he returned at the end of last season more confident in his defense. Despite some flaws, he was never reported bad in the minors, just needing some work. I still maintain Herrmann has potential as a decent bat and decent role player. But I also maintain he's never had a full year at AAA to settle in and work on things. This could and should change by next year, possibly September with Garver and Turner on the way up.

 

2) 5th SP spot: May. Talented, part of the future, started to settle in after a rough ML start last season, and coming off probably his best, most improved overall milb season.

 

3) Bullpen: Not going to finish the way it begins. I still don't get the Stauffer signing and remain doubtful unless its just to be a long reliever. Two spots open? Oliveros steps it up. Tonkin probably as well. This changes if we drop a SP candidate in to the pen.

 

4)DH if not Vargas? Pinto is the easy answer, and quite possibly the right one. But could easily see it being Hunter with Santana, Rosario or someone else sliding in a starting OF spot.

 

5) Santana sticking at SS? Yes. But it doesn't just depend on him. It also depends on the ongoing OF situation. Regardless, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him play some OF, letting Escobar rotate in at SS as well as being the utility infielder.

 

6) How rusty will Sano and Buxton be? Fairly, especially Sano. But they are WAY TOO TALENTED not to shake it off quickly. ST and then maybe a month at AA, very possible both could look like their old selves.

 

7) Mauer's power? Back to 40 doubles. If he does nothing but play in a healthy 150 games I could see 12 HR's. 16 isn't out of the question.

 

8) Molitor? A few more shuffles of the lineup depending on matchups. A return to a little more hit and run. More patience with prospects. A shout to the face is likely to also come with a pat on the butt.

 

9) Nolasco won't be a mess. He'll pitch like his career norms. With luck, he'll pitch well enough to be tradeable opening a spot for a May or Meyer to move in.

 

10) Unexpected prospect to shine? Rosario is too easy. I say Daniel Ortiz. Beresford might be ready to contribute in a utility role. Pitcher? Darnell in the bullpen. And I also like the Wheeler idea.

[DocBauer]

Why oh why is Nunez stil on this roster??

,

Because Polanco isn't ready yet, nor is the solid but less talented Beresford and the Twins didn't get anyone else. And honestly if the team's biggest concern is a backup utility infielder, things are looking way up!

 

But seriously, the guy can hit some, has some pop, can run a little and can fill in here and there at 3 or 4 spots. His time with the Twins is probably done after this year, but in the meantime, you could do a lot, lot worse for the last bench spot.

 

Were I Molitor, not only would my coaches and I continue to work on his defense, (he's young and talented enough to still improve), but I'd have him in every single game I could in ST all across the four infield spots, and some OF play, just to see for sure what I had available to me as role/fill-in player.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

We know that Arcia will be in LF and Hunter will be in RF, so it really comes down to who will be in CF, and that is subject to change throughout the season.

 

it depends on Vargas at DH and how much poor fielding Moli can stomach. I can picture a situation where Arcia or Hunter DHs and Rosario comes up to play LF, but probably not to start the season.

[TheLeviathan]

it depends on Vargas at DH and how much poor fielding Moli can stomach. I can picture a situation where Arcia or Hunter DHs and Rosario comes up to play LF, but probably not to start the season.

 

It also depends on if Danny Santana is a SS or a CF.