Article: TD Top Prospects: #3 Jose Berrios

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans made an immediate connection with Berrios after his emotional video response to being drafted by the club in the 2012 MLB Supplemental First Round. As a teenager, Berrios made fans take notice of him by dominating the rookie leagues while striking out nearly 14.5 batters per nine.

 

There were some questions about Berrios after an up and down season with Cedar Rapids in 2013. He put many of those questions to rest in 2014 with a dominating performance across three levels of the Twins system on his way to winning the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year award. His stock rose more than any other prospect in the system last year and he now sits on the cusp of the major leagues.Age: 20 (DOB: 5/27/94)

2014 Stats (A+, AA, AAA): 12-8, 2.77 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 139.2 IP, 118 H, 38 BB, 140 K

ETA: 2015

2014 Ranking: 6

 

What’s To Like

 

Berrios is only 20-years old and he’s already pitched at Triple-A (even if it was only one start). His work ethic might be one of the best in the Twins organization as he has let fans glimpse into his off-season routine through his social media accounts. His personality is infectious and he should be able to make the big leagues based solely on his work ethic and talent.

 

His fastball explodes out of his small frame and he can hit as high as 97 mph on the radar gun but usually settles in at 93-96 mph. To complement his fastball, he has a very good change-up that follows the same motion as his fastball. Last season he was able to make improvements with all of his pitches including, in part, increasing the movement. He’s also had plenty of exposure on the national stage by pitching for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic and starting last year’s Futures Game at Target Field.

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

One of the biggest knocks against Berrios has been his lack of height. At this point in his life, that’s something Twins fans are just going to have to deal with. Because of his lack of height, his fastball can stay on the same plane and he could run into some issues with this in the higher levels of the system. Of things Berrios can control, his secondary pitches could continue to be refined.

 

He needs more consistency with his curve ball and that should come with more use as he moves up the ladder. With his change-up, he needs to continue to keep it down in the zone so better hitters aren’t able to make solid contact. If he can make improvements to his secondary pitches, he should be able to continue to miss bats. In the past, he’s used his fastball up in the zone to strike out batters. Over the next couple years he might have to start using it down in the zone to avoid giving up fly balls that can turn into home runs.

 

What’s Next

 

In 2014, it seemed likely for Berrios to pitch the entire season at Fort Myers but he dominated the Florida State League. He pitched only 40.2 innings at Double-A so that seems like the most likely starting spot for him in 2015. If he continues to pitch as well as last year, he’ll be on his way to Rochester with the expectation of him making his big league debut in the second half of 2015.

 

Some experts question whether Berrios will end up in the bullpen or continue to be a starter. After last year’s performance and this off-season’s workout regimen, the Twins are going to give him every opportunity to stay in a starting role. Minnesota had plenty of success with another 6’0” starting pitcher named Johan Santana and fans can only hope Berrios will be close to that good.

 

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[Shane Wahl]

165 to 170 innings this year, I would expect. I have a hard time believing that he won't appear for the Twins in September, and perhaps that could be in a bullpen role.

[nater79a]

I think out of all these top prospects J.O. could end up being the most popular among Twins fans for all the reasons Cody detailed. He seems to really enjoy the game.

[highlander]

I really think Meyer should be the higher ranked prospect, but it would be nice to see both on the big club by the All Star break.

[jokin]

I really think Meyer should be the higher ranked prospect, but it would be nice to see both on the big club by the All Star break.

 

Concur, strongly.

 

Nothing convincing has been written in the Berrios and Stewart write-ups that makes either Stewart or Berrios appear to have earned them the better chance to be an Ace over Meyer.  Their relative youth seems to be the main supporting plank in vaulting them ahead of Meyer.  Nick's mention of Willie Banks, the former 1st round, #3 pick, once ranked as Baseball America's #13 prospect, should be the operative cautionary tale here. Banks dominated the minors until he reached AA. 

 

Stewart may be close in raw talent to Meyer, but he also has yet to dominate above Rookie League, and he seems to have more issues to overcome than Meyer (health, arm strength, lack of experience, attitude). Berrios has the potential problems that come with obvious physical size disadvantages.  Moreover, he has yet to prove to be a dominant pitcher above A+ ball.  It would be awesome if Berrios gets the call to the Twins by July, but he's not even on the 40-man yet, and still has a high hurdle to climb in Chattanooga, let alone to leap over all the other pitchers ahead of him on the depth chart.  While they both have tremendous potential- (and not to say that I don't love them as prospects... and in 2015 they may yet prove to surpass Meyer's potential)- to place both higher than Meyer at this point is still a speculative bet on the come. 

 

FWIW, while no one should say that Meyer is destined for Randy Johnson's career, but his comparable numbers at the exact same age to Johnson, to the same point in his career, are far superior.  With the likelihood of some continued sharpening of consistency of his release point, and further refining of his third pitch, both in the offing (and hopefully a new pitching coach will accelerate that developmental continuum),  it is quite reasonable to say that Meyer has clearly shown he could eventually become a #1/#2 SP.   In summation, as exciting as they both are, the definitive argument has yet to be made that the other two are, in fact, superior prospects to Meyer.

Edited February 18, 2015 by jokin

[clutterheart]

I really think Meyer should be the higher ranked prospect, but it would be nice to see both on the big club by the All Star break.

 

I don't know.  20 years old with 38 BB & 140 SO and progressed 3 levels.   That is pretty good.

[jimmer]

love this guy!  Good to see Berrios so highly ranked by Fangraphs as well.

[jokin]

I don't know.  20 years old with 38 BB & 140 SO and progressed 3 levels.   That is pretty good.

 

3 levels, yes, but let's not pretend that Berrios has even mastered AA yet.  Of his 140 IP in 2014, only around 40 of those were in the upper minors, and just the one game/ 3 IP in AAA.  And quite frankly, his numbers in the upper minors were much less impressive, ie, his K/9 dropped from 10.20 in A+ ball to 6.20 in AA.  I expect he will do well this season, but let's not start organizing around the exact date-certain for the Berrios parade from Twin Cities International to Target Field quite yet.

Edited February 18, 2015 by jokin

[Seth Stohs]

I don't know.  20 years old with 38 BB & 140 SO and progressed 3 levels.   That is pretty good.

 

 

Yeah, I would say that is pretty good. 

[BrianTrottier]

3 levels, yes, but let's not pretend that Berrios has even mastered AA yet.  Of his 140 IP in 2014, only around 40 of those were in the upper minors, and just the one game in AAA.  And quite frankly, his numbers in the upper minors were much less impressive, ie, his K/9 dropped from 10.20 in A+ ball to 6.20 in AA.  I expect he will do well this season, but let's not start organizing around the exact date-certain for the Berrios parade from Twin Cities International to Target Field quite yet.

I don't think anyone is implying that he's mastered AA ball. But looking at the numbers it does seem that he more than held his own, especially considering that he was almost five years younger than the average competition (much of which also has seen major league pitching). I think Berrios has given Twins fans every reason to be very optimistic. But I also understand the healthy skepticism. My point is just that sometimes prospects do pan out, and Berrios has certainly shown signs of overcoming some of the harsher criticisms people have leveled at him.

[Eephus]

At that age, he seems like a guy the Twins would only call up this year if they are 1) absolutely horrible and desperate to hold fan interest, or 2) have bunch of pitchers break down. Otherwise, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he pitches for the Twins this season. Just one man's humble opinion.

[shutterguy]

Not sure why you would say is height is a disadvantage. There are several great pitchers who are 6 ft., such as Perkins, Denny McClain, Warren Spahn, and several other great pitchers.

[Seth Stohs]

At that age, he seems like a guy the Twins would only call up this year if they are 1) absolutely horrible and desperate to hold fan interest, or 2) have bunch of pitchers break down. Otherwise, I'd be pleasantly surprised if he pitches for the Twins this season. Just one man's humble opinion.

 

This is also correct. I think the odds of him pitching in the big leagues this year is pretty low. I hope I'm wrong and I know he's worked very hard to get there. He just might. At this point, I wouldn't put much past him. 

 

however, things would have to go really poorly in the starting rotation (certainly possible) and I also think it would need to happen before September. It makes no sense to call him up for September when he doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster for another year. Same with Buxton. If they're up in July or August, great! If not, might as well wait until next May and protect the 40 man roster.

 

That all said, I would LOVE to see him get to Target Field in 2015. 

[BK432]

Not sure why you would say is height is a disadvantage. There are several great pitchers who are 6 ft., such as Perkins, Denny McClain, Warren Spahn, and several other great pitchers.

 

Think of it this way - the strike zone is a box you're throwing into. The average SP is taller than Berrios for a reason - if you release the ball at the top of your motion, it goes into the strike zone with a sinking motion. If you compare Berrios to pitchers 4 or 5 inches taller, it will naturally come in flatter, which is theoretically easier to track and to hit.

 

However, nobody said Berrios is destined to fail because of this disadvantage. It is only that - a disadvantage. Guys like Johan had enough other tools to offset that. I wouldn't get too stuck on the word disadvantage. All these guys are working with disadvantages. They just need to overcome them.

[Steven Buhr]

The height (or lack thereof) is primarily a disadvantage for pitchers who throw a flat fastball and sliders with relatively little break. All of the workout videos, etc., are great theater for the fans and demonstrate Berrios' commitment to being the best athlete he can be, but the most important factor to his elevated prospect status, imo, is his improved movement on his pitches. Significant movement is what will counter his lack of physical height, just as Santana's changeup helped make his height a non-factor.

 

I'm a big fan of both Berrios and Stewart, but, like jokin, I have Meyer still ranked higher than both, simply because I believe he has similar upside potential and he's closer than the two younger guys to being in a position to start realizing that potential.

 

It's the image of these three pitchers all reaching their potential, while serving in the same future Twins rotation, that can make even the most jaded of Twins fans feel just a little giddy.

[VandyTwinsFan]

Concur, strongly.

 

Nothing convincing has been written in the Berrios and Stewart write-ups that makes either Stewart or Berrios appear to have earned them the better chance to be an Ace over Meyer.  

 

IMHO, I would have to say its probably his control at such an early age. There have been several reports and quotes saying that he has outstanding control of all his pitches. Combining that with his "stuff" and work ethic makes him such a good prospect. We've seen in the big leagues that throwing 100mph doesn't play if you can't put it over the plate, which appears to be Meyer's issue. Some state that all Meyer has to do is become like Randy Johnson and learn how to control his massive frame in his late 20's. That'd be great! However, it's unlikely. Berrios doesn't have some magical physical gift to learn. His talent is already there. He needs to learn how to pitch to big league hitters and work on the movement of his pitches, the type of things coaches excel at and coaches love hard workers.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that Berrios has everything you could want in a frontline starter...minus 5-7 inches of height. Works VERY hard, good personality, good velocity, good control, a mix of pitches, reasonable health history, and he's ambitious. All these things work towards making him a #3 prospect. Don't get me wrong, I love some Alex Meyer pitching, but his control sucks and pro hitters will wait for that mistake pitch and crush it.

 

Also, let me reference a bleacher report article that emphasizes command as what differentiates an Ace from a #1 starter. "The bottom line is this: If you have either a deep repertoire or a nasty signature pitch and very good command, you have a shot to become a No. 1-caliber pitcher."

[Steve Lein]

I wouldn't put him above Stewart or Meyer yet either. Especially based solely on his age in comparison, which is what I think is being done here. But you can't deny what he did last year, at least in the FSL - he absolutely dominated it.

 

But he was quite ordinary after being promoted if you ask me. If he makes the same adjustment to AA early this season as he did going into the FSL though, it'd be very hard to argue. And I also think it's a mistake to doubt him at this point.

 

Just a bit premature on moving him ahead of Meyer (based on stuff) and Stewart (based on potential) for me.

[Trov]

I personally get annoyed when I hear complaints about a guy because of his height.  I also get annoyed when they knock him for getting guys out because he struck them out with a high fastball.  I read an article that the current trend for hitters are doing better job against low fastballs, and the HR comparison between high and low pitches was very close.  He sounds like a guy that will continue to work on his craft and make adjustments to what hitters are doing to him.  It is important to keep the hitters guessing, and I feel this guy will do that.

[jimmer]

wasn't Berrios almost 5 years younger than league average age when he was at AA ball?

[DocBauer]

Berrios...if he's not the #1 prospect on your list, he probably is in your heart. I agree he probably begins the season in AA, but we should expect some sort of split season between there and Rochester. No matter how much I like this guy, I just don't see him in a Twins uniform this season, unless he would get a Sept audition. Right now we have one SP spot open and it will take an injury or trade to open another to get both May and Meyer in.

 

 

I understand the preference and advantage of height. But as has been stated here and before, height isn't everything, and there have been a plethora of of good-great pitchers who were only 6'. Pedro Martinez always comes to my mind when I think about Berrios. I won't project stardom or ace-dom for the kid just yet, but, a little more work on his breaking stuff and a little more polish on that change up, and I feel he's about as close to a sure thing, can't miss as you can get. Velocity, athleticism, work ethic, attitude and determination, there's just soooo much to like here!

[Willihammer]

Can't help but notice that the guy scouts say has durability concerns due to his lack of size has been among the most healthy/productive pitchers in the Twins system. Hope it stays that way because this kid's stuff is electric.

[jokin]

 Some state that all Meyer has to do is become like Randy Johnson and learn how to control his massive frame in his late 20's. That'd be great! However, it's unlikely. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I love some Alex Meyer pitching, but his control sucks and pro hitters will wait for that mistake pitch and crush it.

 

Also, let me reference a bleacher report article that emphasizes command as what differentiates an Ace from a #1 starter. "The bottom line is this: If you have either a deep repertoire or a nasty signature pitch and very good command, you have a shot to become a No. 1-caliber pitcher."

 

Comparison of Meyer to Johnson minor league stats to the exact same age (Meyer 3 years/Johnson 4 years).  Does Meyer's control, relatively speaking, really suck? (remember, he was adding a new pitch in 2014)::

 

Meyer IP 363.2 ERA 3.14 WHIP 1.232 H/9 7.4 BB/9 3.7 K/9 10.4 BB/K 2.84

 

Johnson IP 400.1 ERA 3.57 WHIP 1.551 H/9 6.8 BB/9 7.14 K/9 9.6 BB/K 1.35

 

MLB.com has the Twins 3 SP prospects bunched together, but I think close to just about right,  Meyer is listed in the top 10 RH prospects and grades out just above Stewart and Berrios.  Also note that Meyer has not one, but two out pitches that outrank either of Stewart's or Berrios' top two pitches:

 

 

Meyer-  rank 29  FB 70 SL 65 CU 50   Overall 60

Berrios- rank 32  FB 60 CB 55 CU 55  Overall 55

Stewart-rank 36  FB 65 SL 60 CB 50 CU 50 Overall 55

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2015/#list=prospects

Edited February 18, 2015 by jokin

[AlwaysinModeration]

I agree with Doc--Berrios reminds me of Pedro. I think we should doubt JO at our own peril. He met all his goals last year. Wasn't his goal this year to break camp in the rotation? (Could you imagine that?!?)

[Seth Stohs]

Big picture, all three of them have a chance to be upper-half-of-the-rotation starters. Not sure if they can be true #1s, but all three can be guys that you'd feel pretty good about making starts in the playoffs. 

 

My personal ranking was: Berrios 3, Gordon 4, Stewart 5, and Meyer 6, but any ranking having those four in any order would be hard to argue against. 

[VandyTwinsFan]

Comparison of Meyer to Johnson minor league stats to the exact same age (Meyer 3 years/Johnson 4 years).  Does Meyer's control, relatively speaking, really suck? (remember, he was adding a new pitch in 2014)::

 

 

I don't think it's fair to compare Meyer to Randy Johnson, Mr. Statistical Anomaly, HOF pitcher and master of all things involving throwing a baseball including bird destruction. If Alex Meyer becomes a HOF pitcher winning multiple Cy Youngs after age 30 then I'll eat the crow he blows up with a baseball (and love every bite if he does it in a Twins uniform). 

 

When the team basically tells you to stop walking guys and you'll move up and you continue to walk guys, have high pitch counts, and in general fail to do everything they ask you to do involving control...your command sucks.

 

Berrios is simply a more complete package at a younger age. Meyer has some better qualities but he also has issues, issues that make Berrios the slightly better prospect...in some people's eyes. 

[jimmer]

 

 

Berrios is simply a more complete package at a younger age. Meyer has some better qualities but he also has issues, issues that make Berrios the slightly better prospect...in some people's eyes. 

I like Berrios better as well.  And there are a few prospects people, like Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel, who do as well.

[Madre Dos]

Very mature for his age. I would put his off season training schedule up against anyone. BTW, his wife and daughter are absolutely adorable! Can't wait to see him next month.

[jokin]

* I don't think it's fair to compare Meyer to Randy Johnson, Mr. Statistical Anomaly, HOF pitcher and master of all things involving throwing a baseball including bird destruction. If Alex Meyer becomes a HOF pitcher winning multiple Cy Youngs after age 30 then I'll eat the crow he blows up with a baseball (and love every bite if he does it in a Twins uniform). 

 

*When the team basically tells you to stop walking guys and you'll move up and you continue to walk guys, have high pitch counts, and in general fail to do everything they ask you to do involving control...your command sucks.

 

*** Berrios is simply a more complete package at a younger age. Meyer has some better qualities but he also has issues, issues that make Berrios the slightly better prospect...in some people's eyes. 

 

* I was extremely careful to qualify my comparison of Meyer to Johnson.  There was NO HOF-bound prediction on my part for Meyer- quite the opposite ("has a chance to become a #1/#2 starter") and I tried to fully acknowledge that Johnson was a one-off freak of nature.  But it's being obtuse in the extreme to ignore the fact that there is a long list of similarities with which to make a developmental comparison- starting with both being a 6'9" flamethrower, and Meyer's building off of a better base in terms of control.  Of the top three pitching prospects, based on the combination of performance and current tools, at this point of time (and subject to change), Meyer has the best chance in becoming an Ace.

 

 

** I think it's fair to say you generally mis-characterized what the strategy was and what was accomplished by Meyer and the Twins in 2014, when in point of fact, the stated strategy #1 goal was focused particularly on getting Meyer through a healthy complete year along with continued development of his third pitch (the pitch which accounted for much of his command/control issues).

 

*** As I said in my post, the jump to AA is the most difficult. If Berrios continues his 2014 trajectory, I'll be happy to move him above Meyer- especially if Meyer regresses.  The problems for Berrios are curiously similar to Meyer, but at the other end of the tape measure, as there are also few examples of shorter-statured SP aces.  And though I know we both agree that they are close in their prospect status, without a decent amount of data in the upper minors, Meyer deserves the nod.

Edited February 19, 2015 by jokin

[VandyTwinsFan]

I like Berrios better as well.  And there are a few prospects people, like Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel, who do as well.

 

Oddly enough, I'm more excited for Meyer. I can understand, argue, and perhaps agree that Berrios is the better prospect...but Meyer's stuff is downright fun to watch. Granted, I haven't seen more of Berrios than his futures game performance.

Edited February 19, 2015 by VandyTwinsFan

[VandyTwinsFan]

* Meyer has the best chance in becoming an Ace.

 

** I think it's fair to say you generally mis-characterized what the strategy was and what was accomplished by Meyer and the Twins in 2014, when in point of fact, the stated strategy #1 goal was focused particularly on getting Meyer through a healthy complete year along with continued development of his third pitch (the pitch which accounted for much of his command/control issues).

 

*** And though I know we both agree that they are close in their prospect status, without a decent amount of data in the upper minors, Meyer deserves the nod.

 

* Probably, yes.

 

** Absolutely health was #1. Lower pitch limits were set. I would think they would want him to be efficient with those fewer pitches. I'm pretty sure they've always had issues with his control and want him to walk fewer people.

**(a) Honest question, do you have any reports saying his control issues were related to that new 3 finger changeup he introduced last April? The reports early on last year were that he was really liking it. I was hoping it would be the "breakthrough" they were calling it.

 

*** Personal opinion at this point. I think you may weight their ceilings higher than I. But, they are extremely close in my eyes too. I'm pretty excited to see how things work out this year (who isn't?). 

Edited February 19, 2015 by VandyTwinsFan