FanGraphs' Top 200 (8 Twins appear)

[PseudoSABR]

Kiley McDaniel's released FanGraphs' Top 200.  Here's his primer, explaining his approach which does differ from other outlet's.  McDaniel's can be conservative, while he likes ceiling, players that have questions about reaching that ceiling are discounted in his ranking pretty severely (e.g. Alex Meyer).

 

As jimmer notes in the other fangraphs thread seven Twins made the list, and six in the top 73.

Buxton - 2

Sano - 15

Berrios - 24

Meyer - 71

Gordon -72

Stewart - 73

Polanco - 108

Thorpe* - 142-200 (honorable mention)

 

*/hattip jimmer

[diehardtwinsfan]

top 200... really surprised no Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, or Gonsalves. I'd think all of them would be in the 100-200 range on any list.

[jimmer]

top 200... really surprised no Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, or Gonsalves. I'd think all of them would be in the 100-200 range on any list.

Thorpe was there.  We have eight guys on a top 200 list and 6 that score 55 or higher (the most of any team).

[nytwinsfan]

Dave Cameron, using Kiley's list as a starting point, ranks the Twins the second best farm system after the Cubs, who are way ahead of everyone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/taking-a-stab-at-valuing-the-farm-systems/

[jimmer]

Kiley McDaniel's released FanGraphs' Top 200.  Here's his primer, explaining his approach which does differ from other outlet's.  McDaniel's can be conservative, while he likes ceiling, players that have questions about reaching that ceiling are discounted in his ranking pretty severely (e.g. Alex Meyer).

 

As jimmer notes in the other fangraphs thread seven Twins made the list, and six in the top 73.

Buxton - 2

Sano - 15

Berrios - 24

Meyer - 71

Gordon -72

Stewart - 73

Polanco - 108

Thorpe was in there too. Eight Twins in total.

[tobi0040]

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most.  I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect.   If MLB had a draft of existing players, I would suspect a guy like Kimbrel being taken in the first 200 picks. 

[jimmer]

Dave Cameron, using Kiley's list as a starting point, ranks the Twins the second best farm system after the Cubs, who are way ahead of everyone.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/taking-a-stab-at-valuing-the-farm-systems/

It's important to note Dave's rankings are based on a certain way of looking at it.  Kiley will release his overall Farm System rankings soon.

[jimmer]

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most.  I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect.   

Kiley sees Meyer as that which is why he's ranked where he is.

[tobi0040]

Kiley sees Meyer as that which is why he's ranked where he is.

 

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.  If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200?   If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1.  Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players.  Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season?  CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue.   And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college.  He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he?  And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there. 

[jimmer]

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.  If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200?   If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1.  Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players.  Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season?  CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue.   And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college.  He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he?  And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there. 

I have no idea, might be a question to ask him. Kiley does a weekly chat at Fangraphs. And I have no issues with the Cubs being the clear #1.

[tobi0040]

I have no idea, might be a question to ask him. Kiley does a weekly chat at Fangraphs. And I have no issues with the Cubs being the clear #1.

 

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.  They have to sign five Jon Lesters.

[nytwinsfan]

I guess that doesn't make much sense to me then.  If they are both closers, why is Meyer 71 and Burdi not in the top 200?   If anything Burdi will be a better closer as he has already excelled in that role and they have similar stuff there....Meyer probably throws the same 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

Very good and fair question.

[nytwinsfan]

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.  They have to sign five Jon Lesters.

 

Fangraphs seems to generally be of the view that flipping prospects of one position for those of another is not all that difficult. I'm not as convinced that there aren't a decent amount of transaction costs involved.

[tobi0040]

Fangraphs seems to generally be of the view that flipping prospects of one position for those of another is not all that difficult. I'm not as convinced that there aren't a decent amount of transaction costs involved.

 

I think Terry has made the comment before that teams are not very willing to give up good young pitchers, think AAA or first year guys.  Prior to the Span/Meyer trade he called out the Wheeler trade as saying you need to find A ball talent like the Mets did in the Beltran trade.  Then we moved Span for Meyer. 

 

I buy it and don't think, all else equal that you will see a Bryant for say Tajuan Walker or Gerritt Cole.  That is a trade that does not happen often because most teams value the pitcher more.

[USAFChief]

Burdi is probably the guy that surprises me the most. I don't see many question marks about him being a top closer in the game.....and I would think a top closer would be a top 200 prospect. If MLB had a draft of existing players, I would suspect a guy like Kimbrel being taken in the first 200 picks.

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....

[jimmer]

I have no issues with people thinking they should be number one. Just surprised that 8-10 people have them #1 and nobody to my knowledged has mentioned that their top end guys are all position players.

 

As you model that out moving forward....I may lean towards the Twins have a sustainable team in the future as we have some guys that could be front of the rotation guys under control for six years.  They have to sign five Jon Lesters.

I don't think any team has to sign five Jon Lesters.  That's a huge exaggeration.  Starlin Castro, Baez and others might be able to use down the line to get what they need. I think their front office has the team going in the right direction without a doubt and they'll get the pitching they need. Having that strong a line of position players puts them in great position for a long time if even only half turn out to be quality big leaguers.

 

And I highly doubt the Cubs would even want to trade Bryant for Walker or Cole.  I wouldn't.

[jimmer]

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....

exactly.  Equating a guy with so little proven professional time to Kimbrel is a big stretch.

[tobi0040]

I think there might be a few question marks about a guy with 20 professional innings, none above A ball, being a sure thing top big league closer. Just sayin....

 

In a comparison among minor league players, I would argue that Burdi has fewer questions about achieving his ceiling than most, by a long shot.  He has been a closer in the NCAA tourney and excelled.  He throws 100 with a 90 mph slider. 

 

I think he has a higher chance of becoming a top closer than Buxton does at becoming a top CF.  Now a top CF is way, way more important....but supposedly Kiley weighted these based on guys with more question marks. 

 

I am not arguing Burdi should be higher than Buxton using this methodology, but I don't see the gap as between 2 and not in the top 200.

[tobi0040]

I don't think any team has to sign five Jon Lesters.  That's a huge exaggeration.  Starlin Castro, Baez and others might be able to use down the line to get what they need. I think their front office has the team going in the right direction without a doubt and they'll get the pitching they need. Having that strong a line of position players puts them in great position for a long time if even only half turn out to be quality big leaguers.

 

And I highly doubt the Cubs would even want to trade Bryant for Walker or Cole.  I wouldn't.

 

It was an exagerration. No doubt.  But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? 

 

I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades.  I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all.  Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.

[jimmer]

It was an exagerration. No doubt.  But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? 

 

I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades.  I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all.  Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.

yeah, 82 games is a little light

[Bob Sacamento]

The other thing that surprises me is how unanomous the Cubs are #1.  Nobody is pointing out that they are highly weighted towards position players.  Are they going to sign a Jon Lester every off-season?  CJ Edwards is their top pitcher, #50 or so overall on most boards and their 5th best prospect. He only pitched 48 innings last year due to a shoulder issue.   And Shwarber is a guy that was supposed to have an MLB ready bat and they sent him to low, then high A after college.  He put up a .950 to 1.000 OPS but shouldn't he?  And looking at the guy he doesn't project as a good corner OF and he can't DH there. 

Alright I'll bite, I'm a Cubs fan and part of the reason why I feel it's s considered unanimous that Chicago has the top farm system is that positional prospects are less likely to bust than pitching prospects.  The other part is that Kris Bryant and Addison Russell are leftsided infielders (at least at this point), advanced levels of the minors, and have low floors/high ceilings. CJ Edwards as the top pitching prospect is a concern but not much as the Front Office philosphy is more geared toward drafting higher end positional talent early in the draft and then loading up in the later early rounds for pitchers.  In 2014, in first 12 rounds took hitters in first and third round, rest were all pitchers.  In 2013, in first 12 rounds took hitters in first, third and ninth.  In 2012, in first 12 rounds took hitters in first, seventh, ninth, eleventh.  Let us also not forget that Chicago has money to spend and the pocketbook to do it so expect another calculated front rotation starting pitcher to be added next offseason again.

 

As for Kyle Schwarber, whom everyone thought was a huge reach for the club at #4 overall and absolutely no one thought would reach High A two months after being drafted.  The Cubs felt he was the best MLB ready bat on the board but not too many other clubs felt that way, and Chicago worked him in slowly as he was playing DH/LF/C.  He skipped AFL and instead went to Arizona for Instructionals to work on his catching as the club feels he can be an adequate catcher with a plus plus bat.  The good part is there is no need to rush him to the big leagues as there are plenty of outfield depth ahead of him.

[Bob Sacamento]

It was an exagerration. No doubt.  But apart from a good year here or there, who in that rotation projects as a top three or four arm on a contending team outside of Lester? 

 

I also don't think they will get even money for position players for starter trades.  I think they are the Cubs and everyone is getting ahead of themselves.....thats all.  Just like they are going to win 82 games next year.

Don't know if Jake Arrieta slipped your mind but he projects as a top rotation arm. In 2014  he had a 2.53 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 151 ERA+, 0.99 WHIP, 5.3 WAR.  The only pitchers in the NL who had a better WAR were Kershaw, Hamels, Cueto, and Wainwright.  The others in the AL who bested him were: Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.

[tobi0040]

Bob,

 

Arrietta is why I said "other than guys that popped up and had a good year". He has been in the league now for awhile and at 28 had a great year. I can't ignore the 4.48 career era.

 

And john Manuel said schwarber might be the best bat in the draft, so getting to high a with that label as a college player seems par for me. If he is a catcher long term he is a huge prospect, but very few think he will. He only caught 20 of 56 games last year.

 

Just seems we hear non stop concerns about buxtons health, sano's position, how tall berrios is, Meyers mechanics, kohls strikeouts. Yet nobody seems to say boo about the cubs players. Maybe I am off base, or maybe everyone really wants the cubs resurgence story that they don't scrutinize them in the same manner.

[Jham]

Very good and fair question.

Well, Meyers could still pan out as a starter where Burdi will almost certainly be a relief pitcher.  I think that's worth the distinction.  This is important considering how much more desirable starting pitchers are to even elite relief pitchers.  Baseball Prospectus has no relief pitchers in the top 70 highest paid players last year.  Rafael Soriano is the highest paid reliever at $14 mil/ year.  Papplebon is next at $12.5.  The 70th highest paid was Victor Martinez and others at $17 mil/year.  

 

 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

 

As such, I'm not sure how many relievers would break the top 200 if contracts can be looked at as a measure of worth to an organization.  This is actually why I said the Twins should have moved Nathan into the rotation and then traded him (and why they should have at least considered moving Perkins back into the rotation to up his trade value when we were shopping him).

[tobi0040]

Based on chats it seems like kiley thinks Meyer is a long term reliever for sure.

[jimmer]

Based on chats it seems like kiley thinks Meyer is a long term reliever for sure.

According to him, a good chunk of scouts he's talked to feel the same way.  And I've seen some say the same thing as well.

[ashbury]

Maybe I am off base, or maybe everyone really wants the cubs resurgence story that they don't scrutinize them in the same manner.

Or maybe it's just that all their pitchers are strong, all their fielders are good looking, and all their bats are above average.

[bird]

Thorpe was there.  We have eight guys on a top 200 list and 6 that score 55 or higher (the most of any team).

In fact, only 28 players graded out at 55 or better. The Twins had six, Buxton (one of two prospects at 70; Sano and Berrios  (60); and Meyer, Gordon and Stewart (55). Only two other prospects in the AL Central graded higher than 55: Rodon (65) and Lindor (60). The rest of the ALC combined matched us with six prospects at 55 or better. None of those are Detroit prospects, whose highest ranked prospect was #132.

[bird]

top 200... really surprised no Thorpe, Burdi, Rosario, or Gonsalves. I'd think all of them would be in the 100-200 range on any list.

I would guess most every team's fans might feel this way, but very team has good prospects. FanGraphs gave 50 grades to 63 prospects and 45 grades to another 58, so yes, it's especially surprising to see Burdi and Rosario miss the cut. Gonsalves, May, and Kepler, not so much.

[Otto von Ballpark]

In a comparison among minor league players, I would argue that Burdi has fewer questions about achieving his ceiling than most, by a long shot. He has been a closer in the NCAA tourney and excelled. He throws 100 with a 90 mph slider.

 

I think he has a higher chance of becoming a top closer than Buxton does at becoming a top CF. Now a top CF is way, way more important....but supposedly Kiley weighted these based on guys with more question marks.

 

I am not arguing Burdi should be higher than Buxton using this methodology, but I don't see the gap as between 2 and not in the top 200.

Top CF is not Buxton's only path to value. Top closer is about Burdi's only path.

 

Same for Meyer too -- more possibilities for MLB success, and his top ones are more valuable than Burdi's one path too.