Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Trevor May

[Seth Stohs]

In the last two weeks, we have considered four of the Twins fifth starter candidates, Mike Pelfrey, Alex Meyer, Tim Stauffer, and Tommy Milone. Today, we will take a look at one more candidate. Trevor May ended the 2014 season in the Twins rotation. His debut didn’t go as he’d hoped, but there are reasons for hope that he can be a solid big league starter for a long time.The Background

 

The Twins acquired Trevor May, along with Vance Worley, in December of 2012 from the Phillies in exchange for outfielder Ben Revere. May had been Philadelphia’s fourth-round draft pick in 2008 out of Kelso High School in Washington.

 

Following a 2011 season as a 21-year-old in the Florida State League, May was named the Phillies top prospect. He had gone 10-8 with a 3.63 ERA, but his 208 strikeouts in 151.1 innings had a lot of people excited. That’s a solid 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He was rated a top fifty prospect by most national publications.

 

He struggled the following season in Double-A Reading. He went 10-13 with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 149.2 innings. He still struck out 9.1 per nine innings, but he walked 4.7 per nine. After acquiring May, the Twins sent him back to the Eastern League to pitch for New Britain. His numbers improved slightly. He posted a 4.51 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 151.2 innings. He struck out 9.4 per nine and reduced his walk rate to 4.0 per nine.

 

May made the jump to Triple-A last year, and he really stepped up his performance. In Rochester, he went 8-6 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. In 98.0 innings, he struck out 94 and again reduced his walk rate, down to 3.6 per nine. In a five inning performance in mid-June, May hurt his calf and missed a month. He had been named to the Futures Game roster but had to miss that. It’s impossible to know now, but if healthy, he likely would have been called up to the Twins before that game. Instead, he rehabbed and shook off some rust in Rochester starting in mid-July.

 

On August 7^th, he received the news he had been waiting for: he was heading to the big leagues. Two days later, he made his major league debut in Oakland. We all recall that his debut did not go as he (or anyone) would have hoped. The A’s were patient against him, and May was charged with four runs on three hits and SEVEN walks over just two innings. His next couple of starts didn’t go well either. In fact, through three games, he worked just nine innings and walked 13 and struck out just three.

 

At that point, May worked very hard with then-pitching coach Rick Anderson. At Twins Fest, May gave credit where credit was due, “When Andy (Rick Anderson) was here, we made some big mechanical adjustments.”

 

Over his final seven Twins starts, he was able to make some adjustments. In 36.2 innings, he walked nine and struck out 41. He still gave up too many hits, but he found that when he threw strikes, he had enough stuff to get strikeouts as he had in the minor leagues. His overall numbers (3-6, 7.88 ERA, 1.77 WHIP in 45.2 innings) aren’t good.

 

May said, “It took me a couple of starts to realize what was going on. It took me a couple of starts to fix it.”

 

In his final start, he put together a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) against the Tigers. “Going out and competing against (Max) Scherzer. That’s what you grow up playing baseball thinking about, pitching in big situations. They were trying to clinch. Me against a guy who won the Cy Young the year before. That’s what you want. That was exciting. That’s how I thought about it. I had a lot of fun.”

 

His overall numbers (3-6, 7.88 ERA, 1.77 WHIP in 45.2 innings) were not awe-inspiring, but the lessons learned from those struggles could prove valuable over time.

 

What is he?

 

Trevor May stands at 6-5 and weighs about 240 pounds. He has a strong, sturdy frame and solid mechanics that have allowed him to be quite durable in his career. May has a four-pitch mix and is willing to use each of those pitches any time. Like most pitchers, he throws his fastball most frequently. With the Twins, his fastball averaged 91.9 mph, though if you watched his last few games, we saw quite a few pitches between 93 and 95 mph. He has a good changeup as well, and that averaged 83.4 mph. He threw a curveball in the mid-70s and a slider in the low-80s.

 

Control has been an issue for him early in his career, but he has improved his walk rate each of the last two seasons. As noted above, he has shown the ability to get strikeouts. Most believe that May will not be a top of the rotation starter. He profiles more as a mid-rotation type who should be able to eat a lot of innings over time.

 

Of course, the other option, as it is for Alex Meyer as well, is for May to pitch out of the bullpen. Scouting reports going back several years seemed to always point out that there was a decent chance that he could be a very good reliever. Obviously, with any talented pitcher who has the ability to miss bats, it makes the most sense to try him out as a starter and keep him in that role until he shows that he can’t. That said, he turned 25 in September and with four rotation spots being accounted for, it’s possible that the bullpen could be in his near future.

 

If he was told he made the team as a bullpen guy, he would welcome the opportunity. “I’d have no problem with that. I threw (out of the bullpen) in the Fall League and really enjoyed it. I loved coming out of the ‘pen. I thought it was a good role that I could do. If anything, it’ll add a couple of ticks on my fastball consistently. I know that I throw hard enough to be an end of the game guy. With my routine, I could handle it. I would relish the opportunity.”

 

If you were looking for how May feels heading into spring training, May said at Twins Fest, “I feel better than I’ve ever felt. I’m in the best shape I’ve ever been in. Physically, I’m definitely in the best shape of my life.”

 

Regarding his standing in the organization as it relates to the available fifth starter job, he said, “I think my progress was enough to keep me in the conversation, but baseball is a business. Some guys are on contracts. Some guys just signed new ones that are going for the spot too. If you throw just as good as them, and their stats are identical, they’re going to get the job. That’s just the way it is. That’s just how it is. I know that. But my job doesn’t change regardless. My job is to be in the best shape possible and compete for the spot. That’s the job I want. That’s the job that I think I can fill and be a part of a winning team. I’m just going to be ready to go.”

 

Last week, Twins Daily named Trevor May the Twins #9 Prospect, one spot up from his pre-2014 ranking.

 

May Percentage

 

Trevor May has an option remaining, so the is nothing that is requiring that he be on the opening day roster. We saw in his final two months that there are things that he can work on, and getting an opportunity to work on those things in Triple-A may make a lot of sense. Of course, when it comes down to it, he will eventually need to make those adjustments in the big leagues against the best hitters.

 

With that, my estimation for the odds of Trevor May winning the Twins fifth starter competition is at 34%.

 

To summarize this 5^th starter candidate series, here were my five projections: Tommy Milone (35%), Trevor May (34%), Mike Pelfrey (20%), Alex Meyer (10%) and Tim Stauffer (1%).

 

Logan Darnell, who made four starts for the Twins last year, should also be given a chance to win the job and a spot on the roster. Non-roster invites like Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and JO Berrios are certainly candidates to make starts for the Twins at some point during the season, but it is very, very unlikely that they will make the opening day roster.

 

 

Previous 5th starter candidate stories:

 

Mike Pelfrey

Alex Meyer

Tim Stauffer

Tommy Milone

 

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[Shane Wahl]

I think I agree with those percentages.

[James Richter]

If he doesn't win the #5 spot he has to stretch out at Rochester and be the 1st guy called up.

 

And if he doesn't make the opening day rotation, it had better be because Meyer did.

[TCisNotaBear]

I'd rather see Milone, Pelfrey or even Stauffer earn a spot on the rotation. If they are close to as good or better then May and Meyer. 

 

I'd be fine with May and/or Meyer in AAA or out of the bullpen to start the season.  

[jmlease1]

I feel like May is a slight favorite to win the job, but realistically it should come down to him or Milone. If May has control issues, Meyer's are still more significant and his delivery just isn't as repeatable yet. It will be interesting to see if May has made any progress since last season. 

[tobi0040]

I feel like May is a slight favorite to win the job, but realistically it should come down to him or Milone. If May has control issues, Meyer's are still more significant and his delivery just isn't as repeatable yet. It will be interesting to see if May has made any progress since last season. 

 

My ideal scenario is May makes the rotation and Meyer is eased into the rotation in long relief (2-3 innings at a time in meaningless games, on a somewhat regular schedule).   Then Meyer is the next up when someone goes down.

[nytwinsfan]

May would definitely be my first choice. His last couple starts were encouraging, and certainly enough to give him the first shot as the fifth starter. I have a bad feeling though that it will be Milone, or even worse, Pelfrey. If May doesn't start as the 5th starter, I hope they at least put him in the bullpen.

[jimmer]

IMO, there really should be a battle for the 3-5 spot.  I know that's not realistic, but it'd be nice.

[HitInAPinch]

May is one of those oddities to me:  6'5", 240 lbs and his fastball averaged 91.9mph? But, he has shown he can punch it up to 93-95.  This sounds like a case where he's pulling the string to get location.  Sounds like bullpen time may actually be a good thing. 

[HitInAPinch]

My ideal scenario is May makes the rotation and Meyer is eased into the rotation in long relief (2-3 innings at a time in meaningless games, on a somewhat regular schedule).   Then Meyer is the next up when someone goes down.

 

In a post yesterday, someone pointed out Adam Wainwright to me.  Full time starter in minors, then a 1.fraction year in bullpen for Cardinals.  Very successful, but the Cards overworked him as a starter the next year and spent time in minors for rehab.  An innings eater after that.  Wainwright is tall like Meyer, so maybe a brief stint in the bullpen may help.

[Dantes929]

IMO, there really should be a battle for the 3-5 spot.  I know that's not realistic, but it'd be nice.

I have said it wouldn't surprise me if  Milone, Meyer and May were able to outpitch Gibson, Santana, and Nolasco.    Some have suggested that Gibson should be battling for a spot also but he not only had a lot of quality starts last year they were Koufax kind of quality starts.   12 games giving up 1 or 0 is enough for me to want him in the rotation.   Personally, I think the 4 and 5 spots should be open with May, Milone, Nolasco and Meyer battling and with that order going into Spring Training.   On paper it looks like this group should be able to pitch as well as the 2010 rotation.

[jimmer]

Some have suggested that Gibson should be battling for a spot also but he not only had a lot of quality starts last year they were Koufax kind of quality starts.   12 games giving up 1 or 0 is enough for me to want him in the rotation.   

Not being argumentative, but what starts are you referring to when you call them Koufax kind of starts? Seems like an unusual type of reference for many reasons not the least of which is the fact he doesn't strike people out and didn't have one complete game. Of those 12 games you mentioned, something like half of them he didn't even go 7 innings.

 

Koufax and Gibson have like two things in common.  They both started in the major leagues and they both have 6 letters in their last name :-)

 

Having said all that, I'm not opposed to him getting a spot at all.  His FIP says he deserves better than what he got.

Edited February 17, 2015 by jimmer

[Dantes929]

May is one of those oddities to me:  6'5", 240 lbs and his fastball averaged 91.9mph? But, he has shown he can punch it up to 93-95.  This sounds like a case where he's pulling the string to get location.  Sounds like bullpen time may actually be a good thing. 

As far as I could tell from stats I have seen 90.8 is the average major league fastball and it was also the average SF Giant fastball so May's average is still over a mile faster and can get it higher still.    I don't think the fastball is the problem.   He also has what I consider to be a very good curveball and changeup.    Control isn't just about not walking people, its about putting waste pitches nearer to the plate to tempt batters and not putting the ball in the heart of the plate as much.     If his control gets better I see May much closer to Viola in potential than Radke.    Viola's best strikeout rate was 7 and his Cy Young year was 6.8.    I just think May has a good fastball and appears to have stuff to make it better and his strikeout rate supports that.    Just a little improvement again this year over his overall 2014 rate and I think he can have a very good year. 

[jimmer]

 Control isn't just about not walking people, its about putting waste pitches nearer to the plate to tempt batters and not putting the ball in the heart of the plate as much.     

As a staff, I don't think we've embraced this part of pitching in a long time.  Santana would do it, but I think the team's strict throw strikes at all costs policy makes opposing batters too comfy at the plate.  The opposing batters know that most of the time, even in pitcher's counts, they'll get a hitter's pitch.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gibson was in his first full season, and in my opinion, he did nothing to lose the spot. He was basically an average pitcher. His big thing was a lack of Ks, which I'd like to believe will come back a bit, given that he was striking out A LOT more in the minors (his minor league K/9 is 8.05 and he slightly outperformed that in AAA). Given that his age, I think Gibson takes another step forward, and I don't think it would be wise if he were not in the rotation.

 

Back to the topic at hand, I have to think that May is the guy they want to win this job with Milone being the next on the list. May has 1/3 upside, given the amount of Ks he gets. If he can cut that walk rate, he'll be fine. I think the job will be his as long as he performs reasonably well in ST. I hope that's the case at least b/c I don't want to see Milone there unless someone else is hurt.

[tobi0040]

In a post yesterday, someone pointed out Adam Wainwright to me.  Full time starter in minors, then a 1.fraction year in bullpen for Cardinals.  Very successful, but the Cards overworked him as a starter the next year and spent time in minors for rehab.  An innings eater after that.  Wainwright is tall like Meyer, so maybe a brief stint in the bullpen may help.

 

I think a month in the pen would actually be fine because the Twins probably have him on a 150-160 inning limit this year.   In the rare chance we are making a run, that first month in the pen would help ensure he is part of it.

 

I would find this solution vastly superior to him wasting bullets starting in AAA. 

Edited February 17, 2015 by tobi0040

[Dantes929]

Not being argumentative, but what starts are you referring to when you call them Koufax kind of starts? Seems like an unusual type of reference for many reasons not the least of which is the fact he doesn't strike people out and didn't have one complete game. Of those 12 games you mentioned, something like half of them he didn't even go 7 innings.

 

Koufax and Gibson have like two things in common.  They both started in the major leagues and they both have 6 letters in their last name :-)

 

Having said all that, I'm not opposed to him getting a spot at all.  His FIP says he deserves better than what he got.

Quality start minimum requirement is 6 innings pitched with 3 runs given up.   As Bert will point out this isn't a terribly high standard.   I was just distinguishing this kind of quality start from 7 or 8 inning start with 1 or less runs given up or even a 5 innings start with 0 runs given up.    I perhaps could have given a better example.   I don't really care how many strikeouts he had but the length of the start is of course relevant.     I didn't mean to be taken literally.    Gibson in his wins last year had a 1.42 ERA.  Koufax in his wins had a 1.35 ERA.    I could find a lot more things they have in common but of course I am not trying to say Gibson was anywhere near as good.   Just saying when he was good he was really good.

[Jham]

Quality start minimum requirement is 6 innings pitched with 3 runs given up.   As Bert will point out this isn't a terribly high standard.   I was just distinguishing this kind of quality start from 7 or 8 inning start with 1 or less runs given up or even a 5 innings start with 0 runs given up.    I perhaps could have given a better example.   I don't really care how many strikeouts he had but the length of the start is of course relevant.     I didn't mean to be taken literally.    Gibson in his wins last year had a 1.42 ERA.  Koufax in his wins had a 1.35 ERA.    I could find a lot more things they have in common but of course I am not trying to say Gibson was anywhere near as good.   Just saying when he was good he was really good.

What does that say about his bad starts?

 

I will take past performance over spring training flashes every single day.  The first four starters have somewhat proven track records and thus deserve their spots in the rotation.  Of the rest, clearly Milone has the most proven track record, though he was awful last season.  Some have suggested a fall off in ability, loss of velocity, or possible health concern for his struggles.  I would guess we're overreacting to what appears to be an aberration and that a bounce back season from Milone is probably one of the safer bets of the team's question marks, assuming health. 

 

To me, May showed serious nerves early on that gradually improved.  He also had a fantastic season as a whole last year.  For that reason, I would expect an improvement from May as well.  He's right there.  

 

Depth is not a bad thing.  The last time we made the playoffs we had 6 pitchers post double digit wins.  This staff actually looks considerably better than that staff, btw.  

 

I think the worst thing we can do is "hand" someone the job based solely on potential or solely on salary.  Hopefully we have a lot of tough decisions and heated forum debates because they all pitch so well.  

[Dantes929]

 

 

I will take past performance over spring training flashes every single day.  The first four starters have somewhat proven track records and thus deserve their spots in the rotation.  Of the rest, clearly Milone has the most proven track record, though he was awful last season.  Some have suggested a fall off in ability, loss of velocity, or possible health concern for his struggles.  I would guess we're overreacting to what appears to be an aberration and that a bounce back season from Milone is probably one of the safer bets of the team's question marks, assuming health. 

 

 

You probably want to qualify that awful season comment to say Milone was awful for the Twins last year.   His full stat line in the majors shows a 4.19 ERA over 21 starts.    That stat line would have easily put him solidly as the #2 starter for the Twins last year.

[jimmer]

You probably want to qualify that awful season comment to say Milone was awful for the Twins last year.   His full stat line in the majors shows a 4.19 ERA over 21 starts.    That stat line would have easily put him solidly as the #2 starter for the Twins last year.

and a FIP of 4.69 which would rank him lower than Nolasco, Gibson, Correia, Hughes. 

Edited February 17, 2015 by jimmer

[amjgt]

Would you rather have a guy that:

 

a) in half his starts goes 8ip with 1 run and the other half 6ip with 5 runs

or

b.) in every start goes 7ip with 3 runs

Edited February 17, 2015 by amjgt

[Kwak]

Would you rather have a guy that:

 

a) in half his starts goes 8ip with 1 run and the other half 6ip with 5 runs

or

b.) in every start goes 7ip with 3 runs

For me it's an easy choice;  a).   My team will win almost every start with 1 run in 8,  but will still win oocasionally with 5 runs in 6 innings.  My estimate is that my team will win 55-60% of those starts given about 30 starts for the season.

[TheLeviathan]

If there is a 70% chance it's Milone or May I can get behind that.  I'm really ok with either of them getting the shot out of the gate.

 

But I'm still sharpening my pitchfork daily in the event of Pelfrey.

[amjgt]

I'm preparing myself for Pelfrey. And, honestly, I'm OK with it. He's got a month. Sink or swim. If he sinks, then we cut him and the Pelfrey era is over. If he swims, then we have a little value.

[USAFChief]

Would you rather have a guy that:

 

a) in half his starts goes 8ip with 1 run and the other half 6ip with 5 runs

or

b.) in every start goes 7ip with 3 runs

I would skip the 6ip 5 run starts from pitcher a. Only start him in his 8ip 1 run starts.

 

I'd give pitcher b the other starts.

 

Simple, really. I don't know why more managers don't use this strategy.

[amjgt]

Wrong... I'd have him pitch the next two innings and have him give up negative 4 runs those innings

[ashbury]

Would you rather have a guy that:

 

a) in half his starts goes 8ip with 1 run and the other half 6ip with 5 runs

or

b.) in every start goes 7ip with 3 runs

Here's what you do.  Bring in your lights-out closer to pitch the 1st inning.  (If on the road, you can use your nearly-lights-out setup man and then your closer for the first 2 innings.) 

 

If your offense has done any scoring, then it looks like it might be your day; bring in pitcher B. 

 

But if you're shut out in your first inning (or two), use Pitcher A on the theory that maybe you'll still eventually scratch out enough runs to win if he's on, and it won't matter if he's not. Plus! you may have him available for the 10th inning if it winds up 1-1.

[ashbury]

Wrong... I'd have him pitch the next two innings and have him give up negative 4 runs those innings

I don't know why more managers don't use this strategy.

[Dantes929]

Would you rather have a guy that:

 

a) in half his starts goes 8ip with 1 run and the other half 6ip with 5 runs

or

b.) in every start goes 7ip with 3 runs

Good question.   I wouldn't mind a couple of each on my team and would have been happy with a rotation full of either the last 4 years.

[amjgt]

I know this turned a bit silly, but underlying the silliness is a serious question.... Would you rather have a guy that gives you an ok chance every time he takes the mound or a guy like Kyle Gibson, who is lights out in 45% of his starts (0-1ER, 7+ IP), so-so in 20% of his starts (2-4ER, 6+ IP), and bad in 35% of his starts (5+ ER)

 

Edited to add:

 

And all this with a truly terrible defense

Edited February 18, 2015 by amjgt