Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Kohl Stewart

[Jeremy Nygaard]

When the Twins used the 4th overall pick in the 2013 draft on prep right-hander Kohl Stewart, it marked the earliest the Twins had drafted a pitcher since 2000. That was the year the Twins selected Adam Johnson second overall from Cal-State Fullerton. Stewart also became the highest drafted prep pitcher since the Twins took Willie Banks third overall in the 1987 draft.

 

Adam Johnson broke Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects twice. Willie Banks took expectations a few steps higher, as he was twice ranked in Baseball America’s Top 15 prospects.

 

As the old adage goes, “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” and Johnson, with his one MLB win and 26.1 innings pitched, posted a -1.1 career bWAR. Comparatively, Banks fared much better, but don’t be fooled: in his 610.1 career innings as a pitcher, Banks was as replacement-level as they come.

 

 

So as we proceed with the countdown, don’t forget: When it comes to pitching prospects, proceed with caution.Age: 20 (DOB: 10/7/94)

2014 Stats (Low-A): 87 IP, 3-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 62/24 K/BB

ETA: 2018

2014 Ranking: 4

 

What's To Like

 

When the Twins added Stewart to their stable, they were adding a powerful right-handed arm. Stewart has a fastball that currently sits in the low-90s, but has been clocked at up to 97 mph. As a prep, he showed a slider that projected as a future plus pitch. He also flashed a changeup that impressed scouts.

 

His scouting report has evolved through his one full season of professional baseball. He spent a lot of time at Cedar Rapids honing his fastball command. He didn’t throw his slider much, but instead relied on a curveball, a sinker that is new and a changeup.

 

The full picture of Stewart can’t be painted without mention of the fact that he committed to Texas A&M to eventually compete to become the successor for Johnny Manziel and passed over scholarship offers from other schools, such as Notre Dame. Stewart passed on his football commitment when he decided to sign for $4.5444 million.

 

Stewart comes from a very athletic family that includes seven children: Kyle, Kayla, Kohl, Kelly, Kade, Katie and Karli. Kelly plays volleyball for Auburn. Kade is an All-State prep golfer in Texas.

 

What's Not To Like

 

While there aren’t any red flags - if there were, there is no way the Twins invest a 4th overall pick on him - there are a few reasons to keep the caution flag handy.

 

Stewart missed time in his debut season after cutting his foot on a seashell while walking the beach. No big deal. A bigger deal is that he missed a four-week span in 2014 with a right shoulder impingement. His return from the injury lasted only two outings - 5 ⅓ innings - before he was shut down for the season. That left Stewart at only 87 innings, short of the targeted 100-plus that previous prep pitchers have gotten in their first full season.

 

The always-cautious Twins, who limited Stewart to 75 pitches per start in 2014, will continue being cautious with Stewart’s innings moving forward. Instead of the 140 innings that Jose Berrios threw a year removed from Cedar Rapids, Stewart is likely in line to throw somewhere between 115 and 125 innings.

 

One number that has prospect-followers alarmed is 6.4. That number, of course, is Stewart’s K/9 during the 2014 season. How could an arm so electric produce only 62 strikeouts in 87 innings? Well, the answer, hopefully, is that the combination of working on his fastball command and trying to be frugal with his pitch-allotment, left Stewart striking out fewer batters than he’s ultimately capable of.

 

Stewart, a Type-1 diabetic, also has a mound attitude that can rub opponents and umpires the wrong way. Time will tell how this will play out as Stewart matures.

 

“He's very loyal and driven," his mother told the Pioneer Press shortly after being drafted. When he's passionate and invested, he's all in. So he really invests himself in whatever it is -- friendship, family, whatever."

 

What's Next

 

After spending a full season in the Midwest League, Stewart will get his first chance to crack the Florida State League in 2015.

 

Stewart told Tyler Mason of Fox Sports North earlier this month that his shoulder feels stronger than ever and that he's reintroduced himself to a throwing routine that involves tossing around the ol' pigskin.

 

Like Berrios did last year, Stewart hopes a strong first half can help him advance from Fort Myers to Chattanooga, which would leave him knocking on the big-league door.

 

Realistically though, the projections haven't changed much since being drafted: Stewart is still a few years away and likely won't pitch in the majors until 2018. Let's just hope that when he gets there, he has more success than Adam Johnson and Willie Banks.

 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

Well, I hope Kohl strikes out a few more guys this year.

[Kwak]

The Twins development protocol for Stewart is questionable.  The "go-slow" approach hasn't provided a steady stream of quality starters.  They invest a 4th O.A. selection and use rather strict limits on his pitching--pitches/game, innings/season, and pitch selection. It appears that they want to "remake" him and make him climb every step of the ladder--an approach more typical of the "lower-ceiling" pitcher-types.  Do they really believe Stewart is "top-of-the-rotation" material?

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins development protocol for Stewart is questionable.  The "go-slow" approach hasn't provided a steady stream of quality starters.  They invest a 4th O.A. selection and use rather strict limits on his pitching--pitches/game, innings/season, and pitch selection. It appears that they want to "remake" him and make him climb every step of the ladder--an approach more typical of the "lower-ceiling" pitcher-types.  Do they really believe Stewart is "top-of-the-rotation" material?

 

yes, they believe he has top-of-the-rotation stuff. But there are a lot of reasons to be patient. First, he's never pitched full time the way some guys (like Berrios) have. He's spent a lot of time playing football, so it may take him some time to put it all together. More important, his last two seasons have ended with shoulder soreness. They will and should protect him.  

 

When you have the mix of pitches he has, the athleticism, the strength, the size, you have to like the potential. Obviously we'll see how it goes.

 

I mean, if he puts up Berrios-like numbers in the first half of the Florida State League season next year, they aren't going to hold him back at all. They would move him up too if they believe that he is healthy and ready (beyond the numbers). 

[h2oface]

So far, a lot of people are buying the hype, because, let's face it, that is about all there is so far. Maybe his velocity will go back up, and he finds control, and he starts striking people out, and he can make at least two of his slider and curve and change and sinker flash and become plus pitches.  I sure hope so.

[Boone]

The lack of strikeouts was worrisome but all things--especially the fact that he rarely threw his slider--point to him improving in that regard.

 

What makes me so excited about Stewart is that he displayed very good control (2.84 BB/9) and a good ground ball tendency (1.77 GO/AO) at such a young age.  If he can maintain that while increasing his strikeout rate--like most of us expect--then he will be an absolute stud. 

[tobi0040]

The lack of strikeouts was worrisome but all things--especially the fact that he rarely threw his slider--point to him improving in that regard.

 

What makes me so excited about Stewart is that he displayed very good control (2.84 BB/9) and a good ground ball tendency (1.77 GO/AO) at such a young age.  If he can maintain that while increasing his strikeout rate--like most of us expect--then he will be an absolute stud. 

 

I agree, I am not the least bit concerned about the strikeouts.  If that k rate is the same the next year or two, especially as he lets that slider loose I will be.

 

The GO and BB numbers you cited are encouraging.  As well as the .4 HR/9 number and the 7.88 H/9 number.

[jimmer]

I look forward to seeing him in the Twins rotation mid-late 2017.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe his velocity will go back up, and he finds control, and he starts striking people out, and he can make at least two of his slider and curve and change and sinker flash and become plus pitches.

His control and velocity aren't a problem. I'm more down on Stewart than most because of the strikeouts but scouts are almost universally positive about him so I hold cautious optimism for the kid. The guy has only dedicated himself to baseball for what, less than two years? It takes time to move through a system and flourish when he's starting behind most other draft picks from a development standpoint.

[tobi0040]

I also like the callout about the bust rate of high school pitchers taken in the top 10.  I looked at the drafts from 2001 to 2010, a total of 16 high school pitchers were taken. 

 

I get eight guys that have made the majors and several studs.    Greinke, Kershaw, Bailey, Wheeler, Bumgarter, and Parker.  The other two were Danks and Turner.  Taillon is also in this category but he had TJ last year as a top 20 prospect (drafted in 2011).  So it is nice to see the Twins not avoiding this group as the payoff can be huge.

 

If you are curiuous, the others were Gruler, Loewen, Everts, Moore, Rogers, Hobgood, and Whitsen.

[DJL44]

Would trade Kohl Stewart for an ace (Hamels) now. Like others have said there is a lot of hype and not a lot of results yet.

[nytwinsfan]

Would trade Kohl Stewart for an ace (Hamels) now. Like others have said there is a lot of hype and not a lot of results yet.

Philly won't do that, at least without us picking up the full tab for Hamels' salary. I might have considered it before signing Santana, but it makes no sense now.

[Steve Lein]

I think Stewart pitched better at Cedar Rapids than Berrios did the year before, all while primarily shelving his best strikeout pitch. I think that's going a bit unnoticed. He also didn't have much of Win-Loss record because of the pitch limit that made it hard for him to get through 5 innings. I'm very excited to see what he can do in the FSL if they loosen the reigns a bit.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins development protocol for Stewart is questionable.  The "go-slow" approach hasn't provided a steady stream of quality starters.  They invest a 4th O.A. selection and use rather strict limits on his pitching--pitches/game, innings/season, and pitch selection. It appears that they want to "remake" him and make him climb every step of the ladder--an approach more typical of the "lower-ceiling" pitcher-types.  Do they really believe Stewart is "top-of-the-rotation" material?

Since when was starting in the MWL at 19 (and in his first full season) going slow? Most prospects his age would have been in EST and then pitched in Elizabethon or the GCL. As well, I don't have too much of a problem slowly adding to the stress that his arm gets. I think there's some prudence there, for no other reason than to build strength. It was clearly stated when he was drafted that he was going to need some work as he was a bit raw (if I remember right, he was mostly a football player in HS), so all of this makes sense.

 

As for top of the rotation... it doesn't really matter what they believe, it won't change how they develop him, nor should it.

[jimmer]

Yeah, I agree.  He was 19 and pitching in A ball.  Almost 3 years younger than the average age of players there. If things keep going smoothly, we should see him mid-late 2017. That's pretty quick and something I'd like to see from such a high draft pick.

[mikelink45]

It is difficult, for me, to see people so far from major league ready get ranked so high. Yes, he has potential, but I prefer to see the top spots go to the players who have a chance to play this year and next.  Players like Kohl are certainly high on the overall list, but not top 5.  With so many years left before the top level there are too many things that can go wrong. 

 

Maybe we need a prospect ranking and a wish list. 

[tobi0040]

It is difficult, for me, to see people so far from major league ready get ranked so high. Yes, he has potential, but I prefer to see the top spots go to the players who have a chance to play this year and next.  Players like Kohl are certainly high on the overall list, but not top 5.  With so many years left before the top level there are too many things that can go wrong. 

 

Maybe we need a prospect ranking and a wish list. 

 

I think you have many different types of lists.  Who will be up this year could be one.  Who has the most upside could be another.  But the short term list would have Logan Darnell ranked higher than Kohl Stewart. 

Edited February 17, 2015 by tobi0040

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The thing about Stewart is that, despite not striking hardly anyone out, opponent's batting average is very low. You could point to a hard-to-maintain low BABIP, but from the sounds of it, not many people hit the ball hard against him...

 

Imagine when he's throwing his best pitches, has better fielders behind him and can command his fastball. That's why he's so highly regarded. 

[HitInAPinch]

I like his size and I like his demeanor.  But he's gotta watch that pissing of the umpire stuff and his dropping his slider and going with a curve concern me.  Then on the other hand, he's just getting started.  This next year will mean a lot.  If he cools off a bit and takes instructions well, he could be on the fast track.

[h2oface]

"Stewart comes from a very athletic family that includes seven children: Kyle, Kayla, Kohl, Kelly, Kade, Katie and Karli."

Kohl's family is an alliteration. I guess it is not as troublesome as George Forman's kids' names.  I hope he has recovered from this parental abuse  ..... and turns it into a kareer with K's.

[h2oface]

I also like the callout about the bust rate of high school pitchers taken in the top 10.  I looked at the drafts from 2001 to 2010, a total of 16 high school pitchers were taken. .................... If you are curiuous, the others were Gruler, Loewen, Everts, Moore, Rogers, Hobgood, and Whitsen.

Who?

[tobi0040]

Who?

Yeah. The funny thing is I distinctly remember the hobgood pick and how great it was received

[DocBauer]

Seen enough Banks's, Gasser's and Bumgarner's(?) over the years not to get too excited too fast. Not being pessimistic, just stating a fact. But the velocity, the solid/good secondary stuff, the control, his athleticism and build have me very intrigued. Add in his age, how he performed at the level he was at, and the quality peripherals overall, and I don't worry about the K rate at this time.

 

Healthy, at least a slight lessening of the pitch count restrictions, more use of his slider, etc, etc, I'd expect to see at least a partial rise in K rate this season. I hope he goes to Ft Meyers and I hope he blows things up. But I wouldn't be shocked or upset if he went back to the Kernals for the first month or so, or extended ST with warmer weather, just to get off to a good start.

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah. The funny thing is I distinctly remember the hobgood pick and how great it was received

 

They all were good picks at the time. There's no possible way to know how draft picks will turn out. The Willie Banks pick was considered tremendous at the time. 

 

Loewen certainly has had an interesting career. I think last year he went back to pitching for the first time in several years. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

"Stewart comes from a very athletic family that includes seven children: Kyle, Kayla, Kohl, Kelly, Kade, Katie and Karli."

That is utterly ridiculous.

[tobi0040]

They all were good picks at the time. There's no possible way to know how draft picks will turn out. The Willie Banks pick was considered tremendous at the time. 

 

Loewen certainly has had an interesting career. I think last year he went back to pitching for the first time in several years. 

 

That is the funny thing about the draft grades the day after.  You can usually go back and laugh at those.  Or the Kershaw scouting report from the team that drafted him.  Projected him as a #2 starter as a ceiling and his breaking balls needed a ton of work.

[70charger]

That is utterly ridiculous.

 

I swam in college with a guy named Klete, who had sisters named Kelsey and Kalyn. They were all swimmers. Their parents' names were Karen and Kelly.

 

It's a bit ridiculous...

[nicksaviking]

That is utterly ridiculous.

 

I know, who in their right mind would want seven kids?!

[nicksaviking]

If Stewart's proponents are right and his K numbers get in line with his stuff, I'll probably be more excited about him than Berrios or Meyer.  But we have to see it first.

 

Also, Willie Banks always seemed soooo close to breaking out.  His 1993 season was a huge improvement over 1992 and I thought he was going to be the real deal the next year.  Of course the Twins traded him that offseason and he never got his control tamed down after that.

 

Andy McPhail must have hated Willie.  He traded him to the Cubs in the 1993-94 offseason and then traded him away from the Cubs once he landed that gig.

[jimmer]

That is utterly ridiculous.

Is it more or less ridiculous than George Foreman naming all his boys George?  There's George Jr, George III, George IV, George V,  and George VI.