Article: TD Top Prospects: #5 Alex Meyer

[Nick Nelson]

When the Twins acquired Alex Meyer in exchange for Denard Span back in November of 2012, the move was widely hailed as a big win for Terry Ryan because young pitchers with legitimate ace potential are among the most valuable commodities in baseball -- all the more true for a Minnesota team that sorely lacked high-end arms in its system.

 

As a first-round draft pick with an upper-90s fastball and quality secondary stuff to boot, Meyer had that upside. He still does, which keeps him in our Top 5, but for various reasons he now seems less likely to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter than he did two years ago.

 

That's not to say he doesn't project as an excellent pitcher and a highly valuable asset.Age: 25 (DOB: 1/3/90)

2014 Stats (AAA): 130.1 IP, 7-7, 3.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153/64 K/BB

ETA: 2015

2014 Ranking: 3

 

What's To Like

 

Meyer has always excelled at throwing the ball past opposing hitters. During his junior year at the University of Kentucky, he led the Southeastern Conference with 110 strikeouts. The Washington Nationals took notice and selected him with the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft.

 

In his first pro season, Meyer struck out 139 hitters in 129 innings between Low-A and High-A. The following year -- his first in the Twins organization -- he tallied 84 strikeouts in 70 innings (10.8 K/9) at Double-A, but was limited to 13 starts by shoulder problems.

 

Last year, he led the International League with a 10.6 K/9 rate, piling up 153 whiffs in 130 innings. Meyer's stuff was as good as ever; he overwhelmed the opposition at the highest minor-league level with his power fastball and a nasty slider, along with a decent but inconsistent changeup.

 

The big strikeout rates have helped enable Meyer to keep hits in check at every level. He has given up only 300 knocks (22 homers) in 363 professional innings, and last year held Triple-A batters to a .241 average and .690 OPS.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

Starting pitchers who average more than 95 MPH on their fastball are few and far between, and it's not hard to see why: There aren't many arms durable enough to withstand that kind of exertion over 200 innings every season.

 

Unfortunately, Meyer's career up to this point has given little indication that he'll fall into that exclusive category.

 

The big righty has been unable to throw more than 130 innings in any of his three pro seasons. This owes to a few different factors.

 

First, he has struggled at times with his command. This is hardly unusual for a guy who stands nearly 6'9", and it's not something that he can't improve over time --Randy Johnson didn't figure out how to throw strikes until his 30s--but Meyer is coming off his worst season yet in that department, having averaged a walk every other inning at Rochester.

 

Beyond the bases on balls -- which lead to more batters and higher pitch counts -- there are the long at-bats and the innings that can drag on. This, in combination with the Twins' cautious approach, led to Meyer averaging fewer than five innings per start in 2014. He never completed seven innings in an outing, and in fact has done so only once in his professional career, back in 2012.

 

Despite the stringent restrictions on his usage -- Meyer threw 100 or more pitches only three times in 27 starts last year, and exceeded 90 pitches only seven times -- he still didn't hold up through the end of the season. Shoulder soreness had cost him a sizable chunk of his 2013 campaign, and while he was evidently healthy for most of 2014, that same shoulder began barking again in late August, forcing him out of his final start after one inning.

 

No structural damage was found in the shoulder, but still, you can't help but be concerned about the long-term outlook for Meyer's wing, especially in light of the questions that have always surrounded his pitching mechanics. As Jeff Mans recently wrote for the Sporting News:

 

"Meyer has issues repeating his delivery and while this makes his stuff nearly unhittable at times, it also means he cannot locate to save his life ... I strongly believe that the shoulder issues and mechanics are directly related and that once Meyer can solve his motion issues, the shoulder problems will fade away as well."

 

Perhaps this is an area where new pitching coach Neil Allen can help straighten Meyer out, in which case it behooves the Twins to get him up as quickly as possible, even if that means pitching out of the bullpen.

 

What's Next

 

Meyer has some incredible things going for him -- namely an eye-popping arsenal that will make him exciting for fans to watch and dreadful for opposing hitters to face -- but he also has enough red flags that one can understand why the Twins have moved him along rather slowly, despite his relatively advanced age and gaudy strikeout numbers at all levels.

 

I maintain that he's among the most important individuals in the entire organization, because if he comes close to fulfilling his potential Meyer can make as large an impact as any player in the system, but he has much to prove in that regard.

 

The Twins will surely give him a long look in spring training, especially now that he's been added to the 40-man roster, but if he makes the big-league club it seems more likely he'd do so as a reliever. That might be his future role, based on what we've seen, but I'd definitely like to see him get a chance to start in the majors and I suspect we will at some point before 2015 is over.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

If ranking prospects was done entirely on upside, Meyer would have to be third, if not second.  But, of course, it isn't, which makes sense. I agree with Nick that Meyer needs to be in the majors by sometime in May, if only in relief.

[brvama]

Someone with talent and potential of Meyers needs to be given every chance to pass or fail as a starter. I'd love to see him make the club out of ST, but if not, send him to AAA to be the first called up. I want him in a starters role, which means he needs to be stretched out. i know that Santana started in the bullpen, but IIRC he didn't have major control issues. Walks are not good coming from the bullpen. I think I could handle a few walks as a starter for a while given his potential. Walks from a reliever are a disaster for the club AND pitcher.

[jokin]

The Twins will surely give him a long look in spring training, especially now that he's been added to the 40-man roster, but if he makes the big-league club it seems more likely he'd do so as a reliever. That might be his future role, based on what we've seen, but I'd definitely like to see him get a chance to start in the majors and I suspect we will at some point before 2015 is over.

 

 

 

If ranking prospects was done entirely on upside, Meyer would have to be third, if not second.  But, of course, it isn't, which makes sense. I agree with Nick that Meyer needs to be in the majors by sometime in May, if only in relief.

 

When making these rankings...  what is the right balance?, and who/how many of the TD staff determine?...  upside ceiling versus floor as the final criterion for prospect ranking/placement.  Is Meyer still the best combination of stuff and talent, plus with the closest acceding proximity to the majors, of all the arms in the Twins system for an Ace-level career, or not?  If he is (and I think a strong case can be made that that is in fact, the case), then shouldn't he still be in his #3 spot?

 

Quite frankly, a permanent future role for Meyer in the pen makes the original trade for Span largely an overall failure.  OTOH, I concur with both of you, following the Cardinals model, Meyer needs to be up with the big club in a relief role, much sooner rather than later, assuming he doesn't win the #5 spot in ST.

Edited February 16, 2015 by jokin

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maybe there are shoulder concerns, but that is not a reason to have him start in AAA Rochester, in my opinion.

[jokin]

Maybe there are shoulder concerns, but that is not a reason to have him start in AAA Rochester, in my opinion.

....or drop down to #5 in the rankings.

[mikelink45]

The Cardinals get their arms to the majors and they work them with the major league staff as support.  Young arms like Wacha can be damaged and some do not come back, but they got amazing production for Wacha in the past and if he does not come back they will still have succeeded as a team.  We need to learn that lesson.  If Meyer goes down, let it be in Major League production.  Let the other pitchers and the pitching coach work with him here and as a starter.

[Jham]

I wonder if we are putting to much pressure on this kid to be the next staff ace. Maybe we should just let him develop instead.  I'm not sure we're doing him many favors by comparing him to all-time greats like Randy Johnson.  Aside from being left-handed, Johnson was one of the most durable pitchers of his generation.  He generated easy speed.  His herky jerky mechanics hid an incredibly smooth 3/4ths delivery making his velocity even more deceptive.  His release point was basically directly at a left-hander's head.  I've never seen Meyer throw, but I'm not sure I've read that he has any of those qualities.

Not too many starting pitchers can get by on fastball, slider.  I'd start him out in the pen, and hope for Papplebon upside.  Otherwise he'll probably need to develop a plus change-up or cutter.  Major league hitters don't swing at garbage, and can time up any amount of heat by their 2nd trip through, if not within their first at bat. Given his durability issues, it seems bringing him out of the pen is a no-brainer, at least at first.  

 

I'm trying to think of a fair comparison for Meyer as a right-handed starter with a 2.5 pitch assortment, and I really have a hard time coming up with one...  

[tobi0040]

I would say that if the Twins think mechanics are causing him to re-injure his shoulder then they should be tweaking those mechanics sooner rather than later.   Based on the fact that we haven't heard that as their analysis or any word on the Twins tweaking his mechanics, I am guessing they have not reached that conclusion.

[bird]

Jeff Mans has been playing fantasy baseball since he was 12 years old and was a PC repair mogul until he decided to become an expert at pitching mechanics.

 

I sure hope someone is printing his comments off and xeroxing them to hand deliver to the dinosaurs over at Target Field so they can be alerted to the problem. Maybe they can get someone in here to fix Meyer's mechanics on a freelance basis.

 

[HitInAPinch]

I have issues with the commentary by Jeff Mans.  His article was POSTED on Sporting News.  However, his website/blog is called FantasyAlarm.com.  So I'd say his views are slanted towards the negative.

 

Is Meyer's shoulder problems really due to mechanics or is it a physical problem.  I haven't heard, but has he been to one of these specialty-sports clinics?  I'm very much against putting Meyer in the bullpen.  To me, that may be trading a Randy Johnson for a Jon Rauch.

[Jham]

Interesting piece from http://rotoscouting.com/alex-meyer-scouting-report-2014/ 

Don't know a ton about the scout, but at least he'd watched him at two points in his career.  He projects him as a potentially elite level closer.

 

Nothing wrong with that, btw.

[big dog]

The Cardinals get their arms to the majors and they work them with the major league staff as support.  Young arms like Wacha can be damaged and some do not come back, but they got amazing production for Wacha in the past and if he does not come back they will still have succeeded as a team.  We need to learn that lesson.  If Meyer goes down, let it be in Major League production.  Let the other pitchers and the pitching coach work with him here and as a starter.

Wacha has had 28 starts so far.  If that's all they get, they've succeeded as a team?  I don't think I'd personally consider blowing a guy's arm out after 28 starts (and a 9-7 record) to be a team success.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm not sure we're doing him many favors by comparing him to all-time greats like Randy Johnson.

The only reason Johnson's name was brought up was to point out that tall lanky pitchers sometimes take time to develop command. Obviously it is unfair to compare the two beyond basic physical attributes.

 

 

Jeff Mans has been playing fantasy baseball since he was 12 years old and was a PC repair mogul until he decided to become an expert at pitching mechanics.

Regardless of his true expertise, he's repeating a viewpoint that, I assure you, has been expressed by many scouts.

[HitInAPinch]

Someone with talent and potential of Meyers needs to be given every chance to pass or fail as a starter. I'd love to see him make the club out of ST, but if not, send him to AAA to be the first called up. I want him in a starters role, which means he needs to be stretched out. i know that Santana started in the bullpen, but IIRC he didn't have major control issues. Walks are not good coming from the bullpen. I think I could handle a few walks as a starter for a while given his potential. Walks from a reliever are a disaster for the club AND pitcher.

 

I agree completely!  I believe stretching him out and then switching him to short stint, relief rolls would be counter productive.  Too tall.

 

Johan Santana is a lot shorter than Meyer.  That alone makes beginning in the bullpen a whole different story.

[HitInAPinch]

The Cardinals get their arms to the majors and they work them with the major league staff as support.  Young arms like Wacha can be damaged and some do not come back, but they got amazing production for Wacha in the past and if he does not come back they will still have succeeded as a team.  We need to learn that lesson.  If Meyer goes down, let it be in Major League production.  Let the other pitchers and the pitching coach work with him here and as a starter.

Some organizations seem to be really good at developing pitchers.  The Cardinals are amongst the top.  A good pitcher leaving via free agency?  Not problem.  Promote the next one

I wonder if the Cardinals go for a certain body type.  I don't remember them having a tall, lanky pitcher. Mostly big, squared shoulder-type...

[bird]

I'm skeptical of the conclusion being drawn by Mans. Is he parroting some scout's opinion? Has anyone else definitively linked Meyer's shoulder problem to a flaw in his mechanics? It's entirely possible that it's true, and maybe I'm struggling with semantics. Most of the observations I've read talk about his height and the inherent difficulty in repeating his delivery, but I don't recall talk about his mechanics being "flawed" or a lot of talk about how he has "motion issues" that subject him to this greater risk of injury. And Mans's is the first opinion I've encountered that makes a direct link between his mechanics and his injury history.

Edited February 16, 2015 by birdwatcher

[tobi0040]

I'm skeptical of the conclusion being drawn by Mans. Is he parroting some scout's opinion? Has anyone else definitively linked Meyer's shoulder problem to a flaw in his mechanics? It's entirely possible that it's true, and maybe I'm struggling with semantics. Most of the observations I've read talk about his height and the inherent difficulty in repeating his delivery, but I don't recall talk about his mechanics being "flawed" or a lot of talk about how he has "motion issues" that subject him to this greater risk of injury. And Mans's is the first opinion I've encountered that makes a direct link between his mechanics and his injury history.

 

I have heard being tall = hard to repeat = shoulder issues.   I would consider that a mechanics issue of sorts

Edited February 16, 2015 by tobi0040

[nater79a]

I could see a scenario where Meyer breaks camp pitching out of the 'pen so he can work with Neil Allen on smoothing out his delivery. Then, if all goes well, send him to Rochester in May to stretch out to starter's innings. Bring him back to the big club by mid-season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Just a minor nit to pick, but Meyer was on a pitch limit of 80 pitches per start at the beginning of the season. That wasn't relaxed until (if memory serves me right) the all star break.

[Monkeypaws]

Good write-up Nick.

 

I think the Twins have done well in erring to the side of caution with Meyer. 

 

It would be awesome if Allen could help him smooth out the mechanics and find consistency and durability down the road.

[Nick Nelson]

Just a minor nit to pick, but Meyer was on a pitch limit of 80 pitches per start at the beginning of the season. That wasn't relaxed until (if memory serves me right) the all star break.

Not sure the data really backs that up. He threw 100 pitches in each of his third and fourth starts (both in April), and only reached triple-digits once the rest of the season. Circumstances came into play I'm sure, but it looks to me like maybe the Twins eased up on his early restrictions for a bit, then tightened them up again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not sure the data really backs that up. He threw 100 pitches in each of his third and fourth starts (both in April), and only reached triple-digits once the rest of the season. Circumstances came into play I'm sure, but it looks to me like maybe the Twins eased up on his early restrictions for a bit, then tightened them up again.

I have vague memories of the pitch limit not being imposed until later in the season, maybe some time in May. He threw 75-90 pitches a game until maybe August or so, when I seem to recall them removing the pitch limit.

 

And then Meyer went down with shoulder issues again.

[Steve Lein]

They had him on a limit of 85 pitches or 6 innings. There were starts in there that he dominated, but was pulled after 6 innings at 85 pitches or so.

 

From a Judd Zulgad article after Futures Game last year:

 

"The Twins, rightfully so, have been extremely cautious with Meyer this season. He missed two months last year because of shoulder soreness and the Twins have been very strict with how many pitches the 24-year-old is allowed to throw per outing.

 

"It's been six innings or 85 pitches, whatever comes first," he said. "Last time our pitching coordinator was in town so I got to go a little bit longer, but I think (the decision to be careful) comes with the shoulder injury from last year."

[nater79a]

Anyone know if he loses his mechanics and control with just the change-up and breaking pitch? Or does he struggle with his fastball and wipe-out slider at times too? I know the latter two are his best pitches.

[Nick Nelson]

Anyone know if he loses his mechanics and control with just the change-up and breaking pitch? Or does he struggle with his fastball and wipe-out slider at times too? I know the latter two are his best pitches.

The more specific reports I've heard suggest that he often has trouble getting the fastball down in the zone, which isn't surprising considering his height. It hasn't been a big problem for him up to this point but there are concerns that MLB hitters will elevate the heaters up in the zone. 

 

That being said, I think he can usually throw the FB for strikes when he wants to... the secondary stuff, less so.

[jokin]

Anyone know if he loses his mechanics and control with just the change-up and breaking pitch? Or does he struggle with his fastball and wipe-out slider at times too? I know the latter two are his best pitches.

 

In the game I saw on August 3rd,  it appeared he was guiding (and tipping?) the change-up- definitely a work in progress.    But when he had a couple of long innings, it looked like the FB would sail on him- up or out of the zone- his delivery looks very smooth on both the slider and FB, but perhaps the control lapses are due to the varying release point? It looked like he was getting pinched by the ump on the slider, it looked like a devastating pitch from behind home plate. After the first of the long innings, he came back the next inning and was unhittable, hitting 99 MPH effortlessly a couple times, throwing almost nothing but strikes.

 

He was automatically pulled at around 90 pitches, with 2 outs in the 6th, but he never looked in trouble, winded, sore-armed, sore-shouldered.  Just a couple fits of lack of control.  For the game, he had 8Ks, 3BBs, 2 weakly hit singles.  As I said at the time, he was a man amongst boys.

Edited February 16, 2015 by jokin

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Some organizations seem to be really good at developing pitchers.  The Cardinals are amongst the top.  A good pitcher leaving via free agency?  Not problem.  Promote the next one

I wonder if the Cardinals go for a certain body type.  I don't remember them having a tall, lanky pitcher. Mostly big, squared shoulder-type...

Wainwright. He is listed as 6-7. Not sure about his "lankiness" when he was Meyer's age.

 

There are some comparable and not-so-comparable developments between Meyer and Wainwright and then Wainwright and the more recent class of young Cardinals pitchers. By these comparisons, according to a general Cardinal's schedule of pitcher development, we should expect Meyer to pitch the entire 2015 season in the Twins bullpen.*

 

*lots of conditional factors / not all pitchers are the same / etc etc

[twinssouth]

To the Powers to Be of TD, I don't get how you can bump a prospect from 3 to 5 due to shoulder concerns and a little wildness. Rankings should be based on potential and future impact. When he gets it right, this will go down as one of Ryan's best trades. In my book, he should be 3rd or 2nd best prospect.

 

Concerning mechanics, I've seen him in ST and AAA and it's quite smooth. He's just so darn big, incredibly long arms, 3/4 delivery. Every time I've seen him, he's loosening his shoulder with that elastic band or whatever you call it. Seems primarily a physical thing. As Joker has said, he's a man amongs boys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To the Powers to Be of TD, I don't get how you can bump a prospect from 3 to 5 due to shoulder concerns and a little wildness. Rankings should be based on potential and future impact.

With prospects, it's often not a guy did wrong that bumps him down the standings, it's what the other guys did right.

 

And it's really hard to deny that Berrios earned a significant bump in the rankings this season. Is he better than Meyer? Eh... I don't know about that but I can't take anything away from what the kid did in 2014.

 

I'm not nearly as sold on Stewart but that's my personal opinion.