Article: 5th Starter Candidate: Tommy Milone

[Seth Stohs]

So far, we have considered three of the Twins' fifth starter candidates, Mike Pelfrey, Alex Meyer and Tim Stauffer. Today, we will take a look at the one left-handed option for the rotation, Tommy Milone. As always, we welcome your thoughts and comments in the forum.The Background

 

The Twins acquired Tommy Milone at the July 31 trade deadline from the Oakland A’s in exchange for outfielder Sam Fuld. Despite another good season and a strong track record of success with the A’s, he was pitching at the Triple-A level because of the team’s additions of pitchers Jeff Samardizja, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester. Milone made one start in Rochester before getting called up to the Twins where he spent the remainder of the season. Unfortunately, he was hurt and experienced neck pain. He ended up having surgery in the offseason to remove a benign tumor in his neck.

 

Milone was the 10^th round pick of the Washington Nationals in the June 2008 draft out of the University of Southern California. He moved quickly and debuted with the Nationals in September of 2011. Following the season, he was dealt to the A’s as part of a package in the Gio Gonzalez trade.

 

Over the next two-and-a-half seasons with the A’s, he went 31-22 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.

 

What is he?

 

Milone is what he is, and he is a rarity in major league baseball. Few pitchers throw with as little velocity as Milone does. His average fastball clocked in at just 86.6 mph in 2014, the third straight season that it has dropped. He combines that with a cutter that is about one mph slower than the fastball, but it moves just enough to stay off the bat’s barrel. His changeup sat at 80 mph in 2014, just 6.5 mph slower than his fastball. Earlier in his career, the differential between fastball and changeup was almost nine mph. He also throws a mid-70s curveball from time to time.

 

With that little speed, Milone clearly is not going to rack up a lot of strikeouts. He is going to give up hits, and he will need to rely on his defense. He is primarily a fly ball pitcher, though it isn’t as extreme as you would think. The secret to Milone’s success is throwing strikes and trying to minimize solid contact, keeping the ball in the park.

 

He had a good track record for multiple years. Some wonder whether the huge foul territory at O.co Coliseum helped him out. Balls that are easily foul outs in Oakland might land 15 rows into the seating at Target Field giving the hitter another opportunity to get a hittable pitch.

 

Milone Percentage

 

Milone was offered arbitration during the offseason. He and the Twins came to an agreement last month at about $2.8 million. Will the business of baseball, and dollars and cents, play a role in whether Milone is in the opening day starting rotation?

 

It’s likely a piece of the puzzle. If his performance is as good as the other competitors, he will likely be given the first opportunity. However, his track record and the fact that he likely will go into spring training healthy should be a larger part of the discussion. For what it’s worth, MIlone also has one option remaining, so he could be sent back to Rochester to start the season as well.

 

With that, my estimation for the odds of Tommy Milone winning the Twins fifth starter competition is at 35%

 

 

Previous 5th starter candidate stories:

 

Mike Pelfrey

Alex Meyer

Tim Stauffer

 

Click here to view the article

[h2oface]

Watching Milone pitch for the Twins, it is almost impossible for me to consider his performance with Oakland ("Over the next two-and-a-half seasons with the A’s, he went 31-22 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP"). The 6.5 mph difference between his fastball and change up, and his declining fastball average now down to 86.6 mph, I have to feel that Billy Beane knew what he was doing, and using Milone for calling him up for a spot start from Rochester in an emergency is his only up side for this team.

Edited February 13, 2015 by h2oface

[nater79a]

Watching Milone pitch for the Twins, it is almost impossible for me to consider his performance with Oakland ("Over the next two-and-a-half seasons with the A’s, he went 31-22 with a 3.84 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP"). The 6.5 mph difference between his fastball and change up, and his declining fastball average now down to 86.6 mph, I have to feel that Billy Beane knew what he was doing, and using Milone for calling him up for a spot start from Rochester in an emergency is his only up side for this team.

 

Of course he WAS pitching with a tumor in his neck, so...

[highlander]

Growing up we called that "meatball" pitching!

[h2oface]

Of course he WAS pitching with a tumor in his neck, so...

Yes, I understand that. Perhaps Milone was pitching with a tumor in his neck the whole time, and he didn't know it because it never bothered him. Ervin Santana has been pitching with a partial tear in his medial collateral ligament for years. If he has a horrible season and finally has surgery..... Hey, I get that the tumor could have been a reason his performance had a meltdown. The way he has pitched and the declining velocity trend didn't change much these last 3 years, except for the time on the Twins. Certainly the results did for his short stint on the Twins so far.  Scott Diamond looked OK for a bit , too. I see Milone blocking what we need instead of helping this team. We will see. Timing will be everything for him. He will have probably have some chances.

Edited February 13, 2015 by h2oface

[stringer bell]

Today, I would put Milone in front of the pack for the fifth starter position.  Prior to coming to Minnesota, Milone's track record was very good, better in most respects than Nolasco or Hughes, although he didn't have as long a tenure as either of those two guys.  Because Milone is a lefty and was arb eligible (making more the $2M) he has advantages over other candidates.  That is reality.

 

While I am not opposed to Milone making the club out of spring training, I don't think he should ever be in the bullpen.  I profile him as a starter only, meaning that he makes the rotation or he is optioned to Rochester. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

Have to agree with Stringer here.  However, I think the primary reason he could be at the front of the 5th starter pack would be because he's a lefty, whether the Twins care to admit that or not.

 

Whether he can do something constructive with his opportunity, only time will tell.

[Platoon]

Using his left arm to both pitch, and (likely) sign the arb agreement, is likely the reason that he will end up as the 5th starter. UGH! When people refer to the business side of baseball as the ugly side, they always refer to a player running out of time or talent. They never talk about a lesser talented player blocking someone just because the FO made a mistake. Trevor May had some interesting comments on the subject, about how contracts and salary levels enter into whom plays, when and where. As my 4 yr old granddaughter says, "it's not all about winning"

[tobi0040]

"Some wonder whether the huge foul territory at O.co Coliseum helped him out. Balls that are easily foul outs in Oakland might land 15 rows into the seating at Target Field giving the hitter another opportunity to get a hittable pitch."

 

                  Home   ERA/FIP           Road ERA/FIP

 

2012             2.74/3.97                        4.83/4.08

2013             3.44/4.96                        4.19/3.80

2014             4.14/4.44                        4.25/4.94

 

Overall much better numbers at home.  Crazy gaps between ERA and FIP at home in 2012 and 2013.  I think this theory has some merit

[Kwak]

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season.  He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

[tobi0040]

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season.  He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

 

I guess I don't mind the Twns paying $2.8M for the depth.  His track record suggests to me he is much closer to an MLB pitcher than the typical AAAA options we have seen lately.   But the veteran status and $2.8M should not mean he gets the job over May or Meyer.

 

I think they could make him the guy though...as you point out "the first"

[bird]

I disagree with the consensus here. I think Milone will have to be ultra-impressive this spring, to earn one of the two open slots. I think he gets outshined by May, Pelfrey, Nolasco, and Meyer and goes to Rochester, disgruntled. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Nolasco and Milone gone by the trade deadline or before. 

[nicksaviking]

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season.  He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

 

Perhaps it's wishful thinking, but I think they did their best to find the veteran innings eater to put at the front of the rotation this year.  I think they'd really prefer May and soon Meyer.

 

But that could just be spring optimism.  I tend to turn dour regarding the front office once they start proving my hopeful expectations wrong.

[tobi0040]

I disagree with the consensus here. I think Milone will have to be ultra-impressive this spring, to earn one of the two open slots. I think he gets outshined by May, Pelfrey, Nolasco, and Meyer and goes to Rochester, disgruntled. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Nolasco and Milone gone by the trade deadline or before. 

 

If Milone does go to Rochester it will be interesting to see if he demands a trade or compains as he did last year (complain, not sure if he demanded a trade).

[nicksaviking]

If Milone does go to Rochester it will be interesting to see if he demands a trade or compains as he did last year (complain, not sure if he demanded a trade).

 

I think he did.  He was pretty upset about his service time ramifications.  He's OK depth, but he had little trade value last year as we found out; he shouldn't have much now.  I'm not really concerend with a return though, I just don't want him getting in the way of the higher ceiling guys.

Edited February 13, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Willihammer]

http://i.imgur.com/gMhfLE0.gif

 

Next!

[Boom Boom]

I am convinced that Milhone will be the first #5 starter this season. He is a veteran, and was acquired by the FO to help "fix" the rotation's problems--therefore, it's his job to lose.

You could say all the same things about Pelfrey, and we've heard before about what a great clubhouse guy Pelf is. I think the job is Pelf's to lose.

[mikelink45]

This is one of those step backward moves.  Do we want to have okay, maybe even a little mediocre when we could develop Meyer or May?  Is a left hander that important if that left hander cannot shut teams down.  Remember our outfield defense - near league worst and tell me we need another pitch to contact guy.  Have 35% chance is 30% higher than I would like.  Having a neck issue myself, I cannot use that for the excuse it might be for others.  A trending loss of velocity when his velocity cannot get him on the baseball freeway now is not encouraging.  I see him as a nice AAA filler.

[jorgenswest]

If Milone does go to Rochester it will be interesting to see if he demands a trade or compains as he did last year (complain, not sure if he demanded a trade).

The use of "complain" and "demand" are words that carry a connection to attitude and paint the picture of a guy sulking in the AAA clubhouse.

 

Ken Rosenthal has the original report that was repeated by many outlets

 

"Left-hander Tommy Milone has asked the club to trade him, major-league sources tell FOX Sports.

The A’s sent Milone to Triple-A on July 5 after acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs. It is not unusual for players to request trades after getting demoted. Milone, though, is more established than most – in 468 2/3 major-league innings, he has a 3.84 ERA."

 

That gives me a different picture. Ask is different from demand. No mention of complain.

 

I don't see attitude in that report. I would hope established players would not easily accept a demotion to AAA.

 

He has an option left. The Twins would be wise to use it if he doesn't earn the fifth starter job. There will be an opportunity if he returns to form in AAA and the Twins are better off keeping him stretched out. I would expect he would work his tail off to get back to the majors either with the Twins or through trade.

[Penthang]

Milone is the guy you've given the highest odds yet with Pelfrey coming in second. Quite honestly I think Pelfrey has a better shot. Personally I am hoping the one candidate you haven't covered yet comes to spring training all together and vaults forward from his late season performance last year. Trevor May is my hope to grab the job and run with it and hopefully the Twins and Alex Meyer with both be ready when either someone falters or gets hurt. That being said, I don't expect the Twins to be like the Dodgers and throw money away so I am wondering aside from May and Meyer, do any of the other candidates have options remaining?

[ashbury]

I may be wrong but I expect the question to sort itself out, all by itself, by Opening Day.  One pitcher isn't physically ready to go, one pitcher has a putrid spring, and boom, you have your 5-man rotation pretty much set with maybe only one semi-obvious decision remaining to make.  The mid-February discussion is interesting but I have trouble getting heavily invested in it.

[tobi0040]

The use of "complain" and "demand" are words that carry a connection to attitude and paint the picture of a guy sulking in the AAA clubhouse.

 

Ken Rosenthal has the original report that was repeated by many outlets

 

"Left-hander Tommy Milone has asked the club to trade him, major-league sources tell FOX Sports.

The A’s sent Milone to Triple-A on July 5 after acquiring right-handers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Chicago Cubs. It is not unusual for players to request trades after getting demoted. Milone, though, is more established than most – in 468 2/3 major-league innings, he has a 3.84 ERA."

 

That gives me a different picture. Ask is different from demand. No mention of complain.

 

I don't see attitude in that report. I would hope established players would not easily accept a demotion to AAA.

 

He has an option left. The Twins would be wise to use it if he doesn't earn the fifth starter job. There will be an opportunity if he returns to form in AAA and the Twins are better off keeping him stretched out. I would expect he would work his tail off to get back to the majors either with the Twins or through trade.

 

The ERA has been suspect, relative to his home road splits, FIP, xFIP, k rates, etc.  I do think it speaks volumes that he was traded for a ham sandwich, then shelled this year.  Now he findshimself, talent-wise about 7-8 deep in a rotation that was not at all good last year.

 

Maybe they had negative connatations to it....just something to watch this year.

[nater79a]

I may be wrong but I expect the question to sort itself out, all by itself, by Opening Day.  One pitcher isn't physically ready to go, one pitcher has a putrid spring, and boom, you have your 5-man rotation pretty much set with maybe only one semi-obvious decision remaining to make.  The mid-February discussion is interesting but I have trouble getting heavily invested in it.

 

I tend to think the same thing. A pitcher may come up with a sore arm before opening day. Trades often happen late in the spring. It'll all sort itself out.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

Milone is the wrong ptcher in the wrong place. A fly ball pitcher with the Twins OF defense is looking for trouble. He is blocking May and Meyer (and potentially Berrios second half of 2015). Send him to Rochester or trade him for whatever we can ge.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I may be wrong but I expect the question to sort itself out, all by itself, by Opening Day.  One pitcher isn't physically ready to go, one pitcher has a putrid spring, and boom, you have your 5-man rotation pretty much set with maybe only one semi-obvious decision remaining to make.  The mid-February discussion is interesting but I have trouble getting heavily invested in it.

 

I tend to think the same thing. A pitcher may come up with a sore arm before opening day. Trades often happen late in the spring. It'll all sort itself out.

 

Although last spring it didn't really pan out this way. Everyone stayed healthy. The concern was that Gibson was ready to go, would pitch well in spring, and then be sent down to AAA because of options. But I thought the Twins did the right thing by bringing him north with the team. 

 

I'm not really pulling for Milone but not opposed to him either, if only because Milone has pitched to Suzuki and Suzuki swears Milone can get the job done. 

[Dantes929]

I guess I would be plenty annoyed at being demoted as well.    After a solid couple seasons he has a slow start where his ERA was 5.86 after 5 starts.   He then has 9 quality starts over his next 11 games, is credited with 6-0 record as the A's won 9 of those 11 starts.   He brought his ERA down to 3.55 and was then demoted.    I cannot think of a similar case in the history of baseball.    His 3.55 ERA would have made him our #2 pitcher and was likely better than over half the starters in the majors and next thing he knows he is pitching in the minors.   Also makes me wonder if the A's knew something about his neck or arm condition at the time.    In general I don't care how hard he throws as long as he has stuff and control to make up for it.    So by itself the mph don't bother me but the decrease in mph does concern me.    We will see what his velocity is now if he actually is completely healthy.    Many pitchers have different splits on home and road.  Some do better some do worse.  I wouldn't write it all off to larger foul territory.    How many are caught because of the extra room and how many would he have gotten out anyway?   Maybe it is that much of a factor but then it should be nearly that much of a factor for all  pitchers.    Its not like it was bigger for just him.

[blindeke]

I want to see Trevor May. Tantalizing stretches last year with lots of Ks. He just needs experience. Why are they messing around with retreads?

[nicksaviking]

I guess I would be plenty annoyed at being demoted as well.    After a solid couple seasons he has a slow start where his ERA was 5.86 after 5 starts.   He then has 9 quality starts over his next 11 games, is credited with 6-0 record as the A's won 9 of those 11 starts.   He brought his ERA down to 3.55 and was then demoted.    I cannot think of a similar case in the history of baseball.   

 

The A's were smart enough to consider what he would do for them going forward, not what he did in the past.  The A's had just traded for Samardzjia and Hammel and had no room for Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and Milone.  Milone had by far the lowest upside and was the least likely to succeed going forward.  Seems like an easy call to me. 

 

If the Twins are smart, they'll also put most of their deciding votes on the guys with higher upside.

[jimmer]

The A's were smart enough to consider what he would do for them going forward, not what he did in the past.  The A's had just traded for Samardzjia and Hammel and had no room for Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and Milone.  Milone had by far the lowest upside and was the least likely to succeed going forward.  Seems like an easy call to me. 

 

If the Twins are smart, they'll also put most of their deciding votes on the guys with higher upside.

yep, a very smart decision by Beane.

[Dantes929]

The A's were smart enough to consider what he would do for them going forward, not what he did in the past.  The A's had just traded for Samardzjia and Hammel and had no room for Gray, Kazmir, Chavez and Milone.  Milone had by far the lowest upside and was the least likely to succeed going forward.  Seems like an easy call to me. 

 

If the Twins are smart, they'll also put most of their deciding votes on the guys with higher upside.

I understand the decision but when the going rate for quality starts across the board is 50% its kind of harsh to be demoted right after doing it in 9 of your last 11 starts.     I know not everyone sees ERA as a great stat but Milone has a career ERA under 4 in 83 starts and was at 3.55 on the season when demoted.    In the last 4 years the Twins have only had one qualifying pitcher each year under 4 ERA and Hughes finished the year at 3.57 and was our ace.   They have had 10 qualifying pitchers over 5 and mostly well over 5 ERA in that time period.    Milone over 83 starts has an American League ERA under 4.00.    Are you saying his upside is now well over that?    I fully expect the Twins rotation to be better this year but can pretty well guarantee they won't have 5 guys with an ERA under 4.   If I am wrong I will be very happy to be wrong.     I also want May to be that 5th guy but think Milone deserves a little more respect for what he has done and it is only the decrease in mph that make me think his best days might be behind him.    If the surgery gets his fastball back up closer to 90 then there should be no reason to think that.