Article: Alex Meyer and AAA Walk Rates

[jorgenswest]

Are we confident in the Twins handling and devloping of Alex Meyer? Does he need more time in AAA? Should he have been called up last June?

 

We don't really know what has kept the Twins from calling up Alex Meyer. We speculate it is his walk rate. How unusual is it for a pitcher with his stuff to give up a lot of walks in AAA? How would other teams respond?Do all teams wait for their pitchers with good stuff to manage their walk rates?

 

Here are some pitchers and their walks per 9 innings in AAA prior to coming to the majors.

 

Hernandez 4.9

Price 4.6

Lester 4.3

Samardzija 4.2

Ventura 3.9

Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts)

Kluber 3.9

Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA)

 

It isn't unusual for pitchers who throw hard and have good stuff to walk batters in AAA.

 

Why does their walk rate per 9 go down in the majors?

 

I am not sure. I would imagine that better hitters put the ball in play before a walk results. AAA hitters may be experienced enough to lay off a pitch they can't hit or they foul it off. Longer counts and more walks result. It could also be the quality of the umpiring.

 

High walk rates do not stop other teams from bringing up their pitchers with good stuff to the majors. I think some teams would have brought Alex Meyer to the majors last June.

 

Is it the Twins plan to wait until Meyer brings his walk rate down before bringing him up to the majors? I hope not.

 

That might not happen until his stuff isn't as good and the AAA hitters start putting the ball in play more often.

 

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[clutterheart]

You didn't say what Meyer's BB/9 is in this post

Nor did you show pitchers improve their BB/9 in the MLB.

[amjgt]

Alex Meyer 2014 - 4.42 BB/9

[amjgt]

AAA / First Full MLB Year (year) / 2014

 

Hernandez 4.9 / 2.8 (2006) / 1.8
Price 4.6 / 3.8 (2009) / 1.7
Lester 4.3 / 2.8 (2008) / 2.0
Samardzija 4.2 / 2.9 (2012) / 1.8
Ventura 3.9 / 3.4 (2014) / same
Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts) / 4.3 (2008) / 1.4
Kluber 3.9 / 2.0 (2013) / 1.9
Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA) / 3.3 (2009) / 2.6

Edited February 10, 2015 by amjgt

[Dr. Evil]

I get what you're trying to say here. Walks are just one factor. If he gets through the first 5 innings of the game and each inning strikes out 2, walks 1 and gets a guy to ground out, he would have a good performance in spite of a high walk rate per 9 innings. Randy Johnson I believe had a fairly high walk rate at times but few would argue that he was an effective pitcher. At the end of the day it comes down to how well he manages those base runners and if they score or get stranded or get erased in a double play.

 

At any rate, I'm of the opinion that calling him up sooner than later is better. It sounds like that is your opinion as well.

 

I have said in the past that I wish the Twins were maybe 10-15% more aggressive in bumping players up a level and challenging them rather than requiring a perfect storm of statistics to do so. Not saying they don't factor other things in. It's just the general impression I have gotten over the years.

 

Having said that, there are people who are a lot smarter than me making these decisions and they see these guys on a daily basis.

[Dantes929]

Not really sure why the Twins have this rap?   Meyer is the only guy I can think of in years that really should have been promoted to the majors quicker and that is just quibbling a bit.    The list above has a lot of names that simply did better than Meyer in terms of WHIP and ERA which is my basic point.   If his stuff is so overwhelming and walks don't matter that much then those stats should be better.    He's facing the same competition that Pino was and was giving up 50% more runs.     The two guys I checked on the list above that had worse stats than Meyer were Lester and Kluber and those guys spent 6 and 7 years respectively in the minors.   Meyer has spent 3.   If he pitches well he will make the team this year.  

[gunnarthor]

I think the walk rates were one concern but IIRC he was dinged up a little in the second half - a skipped start or two?  And the Twins were trying to give starts to Milone and May as well and they had a healthy Nolasco back so it was a bit of a crowded rotation.  If he was healthy, I think they would have brought him up but his last start was pretty ugly and they just shut him down.

 

That said, I still think he makes the team out of ST.

[Kwak]

The Twins (with Ryan) attached themself to the "manage by pitch-count/no-walks" theory long ago.  It is pointless to think that that philosophy will change with the current leadership.  Meyer is "below standard in BB/9", has "suffered from 'arm issues' the past two years", would be a rookie if promoted--and require the inevitable "growing pains" patience--all in the face of 4 years of losing and attendance reduction.  2015 is not a year to be a rookie pitcher in the Twins franchise.  Especially  if they don't believe you will reliably take the ball every 5th game and pitch six innings in 100 pitches or less.

[amjgt]

I'm not going to quibble with the Twins not promoting Meyer last year. He was dinged up in 2013 and was certainly on an innings limit in 2014. 

 

I can't see a scenario (even a rash of injuries or complete dominance from Meyer) where the Twins burn a year of Arb, or Super 2, or whatever, by having him up on opening day. They have too many "adequate" stopgaps without the arbitration concern hanging over them.

 

If the Twins make it past mid-June without having Meyer on the 25 man roster, in my opinion, the person making that decision, is doing a severe disservice to this organization.

[IndyTwinsFan]

I'm not going to quibble with the Twins not promoting Meyer last year. He was dinged up in 2013 and was certainly on an innings limit in 2014. 

 

I can't see a scenario (even a rash of injuries or complete dominance from Meyer) where the Twins burn a year of Arb, or Super 2, or whatever, by having him up on opening day. They have too many "adequate" stopgaps without the arbitration concern hanging over them.

 

If the Twins make it past mid-June without having Meyer on the 25 man roster, in my opinion, the person making that decision, is doing a severe disservice to this organization.

AMJGT -- I have to respectfully disagree with your second paragraph.  He's already 25.  At what point in time do we stop being concerned with Super Two and arbritration becoming the sole or primary deciding factors on whether he heads north with the team from spring training or gets called up by a specific point in time?  I say, let his performance in spring training be the critical factor (injuries to others aside). 

 

However, I agree 100% with your last paragraph.

[nicksaviking]

That BB decrease from AAA to the MLB is very intersting.  It could very well show that on the job training at the MLB level is the best way to learn. 

 

It could also show that MLB hitters are more agressive and AAA hitters are concsiously trying to improve their OBP, something that it seems is often a prerequisit for many MLB clubs.  It could also show that AAA pitchers are more agressive knowing how much teams, scouts and people who perform prospect rankings value strikeouts.

[Steve Lein]

I have said in the past that I wish the Twins were maybe 10-15% more aggressive in bumping players up a level and challenging them rather than requiring a perfect storm of statistics to do so. Not saying they don't factor other things in. It's just the general impression I have gotten over the years.

 

I agree with you here. It's not just you who thinks it. The Twins are constantly referred to as one of the most conservative teams in bumping prospects, often times the most conservative.

 

With Meyer, I think their overall plan was to make sure he could stay healthy for a season without the pressure of contributing in the majors. I don't agree with several parts of that premise, but there are some talking points.

 

One of which I'm sure the Twins would point out, is that before last year Meyer's highest innings total as a pro was 129 in his first year (2012). He pitched 130 last year, and has had those injuries in between.

 

That's not a very high peak total for a SP prospect in the minors.

 

Trevor May has pitched 150+ innings essentially 4 times. Kyle Gibson pitched 150+ his first year. Jose Berrios pitched 140 last year.

 

While the Twins purposefully limited Meyer in 2014, it may well have had a direct relation to his health. This is the only argument with Meyer that holds any merit to me in relation to why he hasn't been called up, though I still wouldn't use it as the reason not to. He without a doubt has the best "stuff" of any pitcher in the Twins organization, is 25 years old, and has shown he can dominate the AAA level. He can't 'learn' to stay healthy. It's time to bring him up so he can continue to develop into that top-of-the rotation MLB starter they think he can be, as I don't think there's anything left he needs to or can learn at AAA that he can't in the majors.

 

That said, I'm fine if he starts off there because he didn't 'win a battle in ST,' but that better mean he's on a very short list (of one) for the first call up if anything else hasn't gone wrong.

[amjgt]

AMJGT -- I have to respectfully disagree with your second paragraph.  He's already 25.  At what point in time do we stop being concerned with Super Two and arbritration becoming the sole or primary deciding factors on whether he heads north with the team from spring training or gets called up by a specific point in time?  I say, let his performance in spring training be the critical factor (injuries to others aside). 

 

However, I agree 100% with your last paragraph.

 

I would love him to be up with the club right away, but this isn't Minor League pitcher Alex Meyer being promoted to the Major League Club. This is Rochester Red Wing Alex Meyer being promoted to the Minnesota Twins. The combination of Twins talking points, Twins history, and the existence of highly paid options that need to play out the string on their usefulness (in the eyes of management), leads me to believe that there is almost a 0% chance he comes north from Ft Myers

 

I feel like the order of "preference" from management for the 5th starter spot, at the beginning of the year is:

Pelfrey

Milone

May

Meyer

Staufer

Edited February 10, 2015 by amjgt

[troyhobbs]

I'm not going to quibble with the Twins not promoting Meyer last year. He was dinged up in 2013 and was certainly on an innings limit in 2014. 

 

I can't see a scenario (even a rash of injuries or complete dominance from Meyer) where the Twins burn a year of Arb, or Super 2, or whatever, by having him up on opening day. They have too many "adequate" stopgaps without the arbitration concern hanging over them.

 

If the Twins make it past mid-June without having Meyer on the 25 man roster, in my opinion, the person making that decision, is doing a severe disservice to this organization.

I also don't have a problem with how they've handled Meyer up to this point because of the arm soreness last year and also don't have a problem with him not making the team out of ST due to business decisions, but this has to be the year and I think it will barring health setbacks. The next few years should be fun witnessing how the youth infusion pans out 

[h2oface]

Thanks for the post. Great stuff.

[Ncgo4]

Just wonder what Twins management knows (or thinks they know) about him that has kept them from calling him up. It just seems very, very peculiar.

[Linus]

AAA / First Full MLB Year (year) / 2014

 

Hernandez 4.9 / 2.8 (2006) / 1.8

Price 4.6 / 3.8 (2009) / 1.7

Lester 4.3 / 2.8 (2008) / 2.0

Samardzija 4.2 / 2.9 (2012) / 1.8

Ventura 3.9 / 3.4 (2014) / same

Kershaw (no AAA but AA was 3.9 in 16 starts) / 4.3 (2008) / 1.4

Kluber 3.9 / 2.0 (2013) / 1.9

Scherzer 3.7 (4.9 in AA) / 3.3 (2009) / 2.6

Perhaps this is a self fulfilling question.  These guys reduced their BB rates and, hence were successful and stayed in the big leagues.  I am betting there are a bunch of guys that were not able to reduce their BB rates and ended up struggling or back in the minors.

 

I get that if he limits hits and strikes a bunch of guys out it helps mitigate his lack of control but I think that there is no getting around the fact that not being able to throw it over is a problem.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not a fan of the premise here.  The pitchers are cherry picked. Here's the real question.  What happened to AAA pitchers walk rates in 2012, 2013, and 2014 when they got promoted?  If they on average dropped, then we can start wondering why, but I'd be willing to bet that they collectively went up by about .5 BB/9 IP.

 

The other thing I don't see addressed here is whether these numbers were the immediate year they got promoted or if they are a career number or something taken a few years later.  Walk rate is a big deal.  I won't argue that you can get away with a bit more if you get the Ks, but at 4+/9 IP, I think Meyer needs to work on his control.  We saw what happened to May, and he had a walk rate of half of what Meyer posted in AAA, and he got plenty of Ks too.  Meyer needs to work on that, as it will cause issues, and I have no problems with him spending a few months in AAA proving he can go deeper into games and walking less guys.  He won't be that ace we want him to be if he's giving up free passes.

 

The real question will be what happens if he improves.  I fully expect Meyer to have a pretty good year in AAA.  But if May is pitching well out of the 5 spot and if Gibson remains the same or takes a marginal step forward, there's no where to put him minus a trade or injury.

[laloesch]

I would love him to be up with the club right away, but this isn't Minor League pitcher Alex Meyer being promoted to the Major League Club. This is Rochester Red Wing Alex Meyer being promoted to the Minnesota Twins. The combination of Twins talking points, Twins history, and the existence of highly paid options that need to play out the string on their usefulness (in the eyes of management), leads me to believe that there is almost a 0% chance he comes north from Ft Myers

 

I feel like the order of "preference" from management for the 5th starter spot, at the beginning of the year is:

Pelfrey

Milone

May

Meyer

Staufer

I see that "order of preference" with Pelfrey at the top and it makes me CRINGE!

 

In all fairness it should be 

 

 

May

Meyer

Milone

Pelfrey

Stauffer